ssun30

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Will the energy density be much improved? Will solid state batteries likely come in pouch format since there's no liquid electrolyte to contain?
Yes both energy density and specific energy will increase by 50-100%, which is where most of the cost savings come from. Also SSBs can be stacked into multi-cell modules (so multiple 'slices' into a 'brick') which further decreases the number of cells and reduces cost.

The price to pay is a much lower C-rate (~1C) which reduces power output and charging speed. However with 50-100% increase in range charging speed will not be as big a concern as today. To make up for the lost power they need something like a hybrid battery or supercapacitor for high performance vehicles.

TM3 became so cheap because of Tesla's early switch to NCM811 which uses half the amount of cobalt (the most costly material in the cell) as NCM622 most competitors are using. They will transition to the even more aggressive NCM9.5.5 chemistry to cut down Co usage by another half and push specific energy to >300Wh/kg. Tesla knows the inherent safety risk of NCM811 but they have by far the best thermal management system.
 

krew

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Lexus USA has confirmed to The Drive that the pure-electric vehicle debuting later this month in China will not be coming to North America:

It’s currently unclear if Lexus will bring an EV to the United States, but according to a Lexus spokesperson, the model that will be unveiled later this month isn’t designed for the North American market.
“We are not offering it in the U.S. market,” a Lexus spokesperson told The Drive via email.

Not bringing the EV to North America may seem like a curious move, but the decision may rest in production capacity — as pointed out by...
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internalaudit

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I had a hunch this would happen lol. At least they're being honest.

Anyway, if by 2025, Toyota/Lexus still drags its feet, I may end up going with a different brand BEV. Got the underdog Acura for that and its SH-AWD for electric torque vectoring. :)
 

Will1991

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Yes both energy density and specific energy will increase by 50-100%, which is where most of the cost savings come from. Also SSBs can be stacked into multi-cell modules (so multiple 'slices' into a 'brick') which further decreases the number of cells and reduces cost.

The price to pay is a much lower C-rate (~1C) which reduces power output and charging speed. However with 50-100% increase in range charging speed will not be as big a concern as today. To make up for the lost power they need something like a hybrid battery or supercapacitor for high performance vehicles.

TM3 became so cheap because of Tesla's early switch to NCM811 which uses half the amount of cobalt (the most costly material in the cell) as NCM622 most competitors are using. They will transition to the even more aggressive NCM9.5.5 chemistry to cut down Co usage by another half and push specific energy to >300Wh/kg. Tesla knows the inherent safety risk of NCM811 but they have by far the best thermal management system.
Even with a hybrid battery it's a bit tricky, at least as they currently are since a Prius get's less than 2kWh (1.3~1.7 I believe), it would require a exponential increase from current C rate to get 400~500kW Porsche (Taycan) and Tesla (Model S/X) are getting.

Tesla does have an incredible C rate, it should be around 5.3 which is pretty amazing, while retaining a good reliability on the battery pack... But, sometimes it's hard to understand how Tesla works, in a week they increase the battery buffer (on older S85 and all TM3's) supposedly to improve battery life.... The next, Porsche shows up beating a Model S100P and they increase power output by 5%, where are all those battery protection concerns now?
 

internalaudit

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Even with a hybrid battery it's a bit tricky, at least as they currently are since a Prius get's less than 2kWh (1.3~1.7 I believe), it would require a exponential increase from current C rate to get 400~500kW Porsche (Taycan) and Tesla (Model S/X) are getting.

Tesla does have an incredible C rate, it should be around 5.3 which is pretty amazing, while retaining a good reliability on the battery pack... But, sometimes it's hard to understand how Tesla works, in a week they increase the battery buffer (on older S85 and all TM3's) supposedly to improve battery life.... The next, Porsche shows up beating a Model S100P and they increase power output by 5%, where are all those battery protection concerns now?
For nurburgring, battery protection takes the back seat and performance comes to fore.

The Plaid is speculated to come with the Tesla / Goodenough solid state battery.

I think the buffer is key to Tesla's no battery degradation. Every few OTA's based on some MCU data, the buffer releases some capacity for operations. Neat trick if you ask me.
 
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It will likely be same as CHR EV in China, and certainly UX since TMME just had a PR saying vehicle is designed for China and Europe.

Dont expect much overall, it is obviously made for incentives and it wont be sold everywhere since they will still be losing money on it.
 

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Despite the upcoming release of the brand’s first EV, Lexus management is still skeptical about battery-electric powertrains — from WhichCar:

[Lexus International President Yoshihiro] Sawa told WhichCar that his company was watching the state of play in the EV state very carefully – and in particular, the world’s largest producer and consumer of EVs, China.
Agreeing that the market for electric vehicles had softened there, Sawa told WhichCar that the issue came down to government incentives for electric vehicles.
“Once these stop, phht,” he told WhichCar, gesturing with a ‘cut’ motion. “In fact, people are going back to hybrids.”
Many...
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ssun30

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Stubborn, stubborn, stubborn. TMC needs fresh blood.
They are just telling the truth.

in particular, the world’s largest producer and consumer of EVs, China.
Agreeing that the market for electric vehicles had softened there, Sawa told WhichCar that the issue came down to government incentives for electric vehicles.
“Once these stop, phht,” he told WhichCar, gesturing with a ‘cut’ motion. “In fact, people are going back to hybrids.”
NEV sales crashed by 50% this year under the new regulations.
 

CRSKTN

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They are just telling the truth.



NEV sales crashed by 50% this year under the new regulations.
Great, then they can make more long-term strategic/vision decisions based on short-term regulatory/policy changes/thinking and have another Fuel Cell fiasco on their hands. Then we can end up with more shoes, yachts, white-labelled jets (?), and big gaps unaddressed in their vehicle lineup.

They've been pushing hybrids forever, the majority of regular consumers outside of china don't equate Hybrids with EVs (in the sense of how they view a Tesla), hence Toyota's entire marketing effort behind pushing hybrids as "self-charging EVs". People are buying EVs here, in part, for the novelty of something new. Hybrids have been around so long, I don't see anyone excited about them the way they are about BEVs.

I don't get what it is about their culture that seems to not get what makes consumers excited about a brand. Even their forward thinking "cars of the future" marketing is all cheesy as hell and so far removed from today that it's hard to get excited. "Ok, so when do we see any of it" "Oh, well, never, probably".
 
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internalaudit

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Give me 60 MPG hybrids (even with just rear clutch-based torque vectoring) with below 5 seconds 0-100 for $70k CAD soon and I will believe most BEVs are overpriced and overweight and clearly have no place in the market.

If it will be 30 MPG, Acura already has that in the hybrid RLX and MDX so ho hum for me.

I think this is just a delaying tactic because Lexus only plans to release one BEV in 2020, another in 2022 and one other in 2024.

In the BEV world, Lexus reliability advantage may be watered down and what will be its market proposition? With 300+ mile BEVs that come with ACC and CarPlay/Android Auto and good AWD, many households will likely be keeping their cars longer. I know I would. I already do with ICEVs. :)

It would be a shame to see what could have been Lexus fans ( like me ) try German cars out and find out quality is reasonable once the engines and transmissions are replaced with drive units and long lasting batteries. Audi will release 25 BEVs by 2025 and VW 20 I believe in the same time frame.
 

spwolf

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They've been pushing hybrids forever, the majority of regular consumers outside of china don't equate Hybrids with EVs (in the sense of how they view a Tesla), hence Toyota's entire marketing effort behind pushing hybrids as "self-charging EVs". People are buying EVs here, in part, for the novelty of something new. Hybrids have been around so long, I don't see anyone excited about them the way they are about BEVs.
but the problem is that people are not buying EVs and that prices to manufacture them are still very high.

Sure, people on blogs and forums are excited about BEVs (Teslas and expensive Audis/Porsches?), but people in real life buy... hybrids? So it should be good that they are expanding their hybrids?
 

internalaudit

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^ The problem is most BEVs out there are full of compromises.

Here in Canada, to get ACC, the Kona and Niro costs $50k CAD. Top trim ICEVs are like almost $20k cheaper. No AWD.
The Leaf Plus is slightly cheaper but has not TMS and has a rear torsion beam. No AWD.
The i3 starts at $55k CAD and has significantly shorter range.
eTron has 204 mile range and starts at $90k CAD (if ever, it does have brake-based torque vectoring)
Bolt has no ACC, no heated steering wheel. Pretty decent but on the smallish end.

It's almost like they made sure these cars don't sell well lol.

The Tesla ($55k CAD for the SR Plus) has the least compromise (no heated steering wheel) but reliability is suspect and we don't know how much it will cost post warranty (surely it will be costlier than even the higher end Lexus'es). I just read on TMC that the actual public (not employee or selective) delivery date of the Model S was around mid-2013. Fan boys are not going to complain when their drive units and batteries conk out but are still under warranty.

I think the sweet spot would be BEVs that sell for $50-70k which in Canada is pretty much entry level luxury region. The mass market buyers are waiting for price parity, which I seriously doubt is going to happen because it would be stupid to offer BEVs cheaper even if they cost less to manufacture because the value proposition is gasoline savings, typically better acceleration and simpler i.e. lower cost of ownership. The base Lexus IS here is around $42k so I put $50k as the bottom since for now, batteries will cost more than engines + transmissions.

There are cheapskate people among us (like myself) who will be willing to finance a $70k BEV because I will save $2,500-3,000 in fuel cost each year (yes my wife drives a lot for work) and do my own DIY maintenance post warranty (simple stuff like filter changes and tire swaps I do on my own already even when cars are under warranty) because with the right set up (three electric motors for torque vectoring, excellent chassis and suspension tuning, perhaps next gen battery that will be less prone to degradation), the BEV could be so much more fun to drive than the cars in the competitive sports sedan segment (330i, A4, C300) that start around $50k here but lack torque vectoring and are all turbo 4's and are typically not keepers beyond the four-year warranty.

A 4IS AWD BEV (even with just two electric motors) priced like a Tesla Model 3 ($55k) would sell like hotcakes I'm sure. I will probably just opt for the base model since it will come with LSS 2.0. In four to five years, I would have almost broken even on the battery premium with my fuel savings.

Although I really like the IS350AWD F Sport, the RCF/GFS with TVD, the LC500h, it's a no brainer for me to wait for upcoming BEVs because those cars are great but will bump my fuel spend to $4-5k per year because premium gasoline where I live cost a lot of money ($1.50-1.60/L).

The value proposition of BEVs to me are:

instant torque (no need for turbos and their complexities) -- Lexus performance no match against German counterparts in terms of acceleration and I'm good with anything below 6 seconds really
theoretically cheaper to drive and to maintain (slightly higher purchase cost spread over longer term ownership)
easier implementation of torque vectoring (three electric motors + PCU + software coding -- Acura Sports Hybrid SH-AWD already does this)
lower center of gravity and more stiff chassis
save the environment :)

Many like me are holding on to their ICEVs because most BEVs out in the market are full of compromises and we all know that depreciation on any new or newish car purchase will always trump fuel costs for older vehicles. I will buy that compelling BEV but if there's none because those are too expensive, then I will choose to take over a lease (no middle man to pad up the price lol) of a BEV with the least compromise. So far I am certain there is nothing that interests me in the used BEV inventory. :)
 

mediumhot

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This interview together with Toyoda's from few days ago literally show the size of the gap when it comes to vision of what Lexus should do next and where it should go in near future. This all smells of some internal struggle within the brand. Conventional hybrids are not the future they are the present and really old news like modern diesels but reason why Toyota is so ahead of the game is because twenty years ago it did have balls to bring the future to the market when it didn't make any sense to do so.
 

Ian Schmidt

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Conventional hybrids are not the future they are the present and really old news like modern diesels but reason why Toyota is so ahead of the game is because twenty years ago it did have balls to bring the future to the market when it didn't make any sense to do so.
I don't disagree, but I'd say that while hybrids as a concept were risky and ballsy 20 years ago, Toyota's HSD system itself was very conservative. The parallel hybrid design meant that the gas engine could still move the car if the electrification failed, although that turned out not to be a problem. Still, it did take almost 10 years before widely available competing hybrid systems were on par with Toyota.

And they're not wrong about BEV sales falling like a rock in territories where government incentives have expired. People largely like the idea of BEVs, but the current pricing premium is not sustainable.
 

Will1991

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Maybe they're not selling a lot BEV's because some of them are complete crap like @internalaudit said... Leaf (no TMS, rear torsion bar), ZOE (what a piece of crap, awful build quality, rear torsion bar), Kona (wtf are those interior materials... Seems worse than my fathers 1991 Corolla, just hard plastics everywhere, rear torsion bar)… And all of these almost double of price from regular cars... They should try building a proper one....


@Ian Schmidt , in my opinion Toyota's HSD is unmatched even today! They're clearly ahead of everyone. This being said, there was someone inside Toyota who believed on BEV's, I mean, it could be too expensive but they did build a BEV production version of the iQ in 2012... Maybe he got fired or retired I don't know...
Even their hybrid strategy could be a lot better, they needed 18 (1997) years to launch a hybrid sports car (Lexus RC) that's not available worldwide, they needed 25 years to do a hybrid supercar (GR Super Sports)... They're trying with the new dual hybrid strategy, but they needed 22 years to do it... Even the 500h engine, why isn't available for the RC?
 
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