internalaudit

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Also, this battery company was featured in the news the past few weeks and it has some big car makers backing it up. Using silicon anodes instead of the current graphite anodes. Says less prone to lithium plating, something only ssun probably understands.


I would wait for further developments in battery technology as the battery seems to be the weak link in BEVs at the moment (marketing focused on simpler motors) and for those of us who keep our cars for as long as possible, who knows how much current state li-ion battery replacements will cost us beyond the first 10 years (Toyota covers 10 but others only 8 years)? I just want battery longevity and not even super fast charging speed because I can charge during my bedtime.



Also, at around 27:30, presenter talks about the three types of SSBs being worked on by various consortium so interesting times indeed for upcoming BEVs. I included the screen shot for anyone interested.
 

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Will1991

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This well get a hard time to sell in Europe...

For Norway (only trim packages), a UX250h FWD goes from 417.200kr to 524.100kr, a UX250h AWD goes from 461.500kr to 628.100kr.... A Volvo XC40 Recharge (direct competition, AWD vs FWD, 300kW vs. 150kW, 75kWh vs. 54.3kWh usable energy, 150kW DC vs 50kW DC) will start at 499.900kr...

Pricing will be a lot sensitive for this one...
UPDATE: Pricing for the Netherland!

UX300e will start at 49.900€ up to 63.190€ (Around a 5.000€ premium over the UX250h FWD), a XC40 Recharge will start at 59.900€ (but far from base spec) and goes up to around 67.000€ (fully specced with panorama roof and everything...)

Complete pricing: https://data.lexus.nl/home/data/LexusV8/prijslijsten/LexusUX300eprijslijst.pdf
 
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internalaudit

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Except for the potential Toyota reliability and 10 year battery warranty, going with the XC40 Recharge seems to be a no brainer for just $12-15k CAD more.

I know that's still a considerable amount of premium but still...
 

Will1991

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I agree, a XC40 Recharge is by far a better option... Even base spec version at 59.900€ is by far better equipped than the UX300e base spec... With a lot more power, bigger battery, frunk, faster charging, AWD...
 

Levi

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Today you can keep any car for 20 years. With BEVs beyond 10 is impossible. What will be the resale value of a 10 year BEV? 0?
 

Will1991

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Today you can keep any car for 20 years. With BEVs beyond 10 is impossible. What will be the resale value of a 10 year BEV? 0?
Anyone who wants to keep any “normal” car for 20 years, resale value is near 0 no matter which car is (HEV/PHEV/BEV)...
My biggest question is, is it technically possible without major overhauls? My current Avensis is 21 years old and with 255.000km is proving very reliable, I never called for a Towing service.

Tesla’s Model S are pushing now around 8 years and loosing warranties, let’s see how they keep going.
 

internalaudit

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Anyone who wants to keep any “normal” car for 20 years, resale value is near 0 no matter which car is (HEV/PHEV/BEV)...
My biggest question is, is it technically possible without major overhauls? My current Avensis is 21 years old and with 255.000km is proving very reliable, I never called for a Towing service.

Tesla’s Model S are pushing now around 8 years and loosing warranties, let’s see how they keep going.
When is an overhaul required? My 02 Civic has 273,000 km and is around 18 y.o. I'm still getting 12-14 km per liter so I doubt it needs any overhaul.

There was this one time the engine shut off/stalled but that was over a year ago (I just started the ignition and that was it) and it never happened again.

That is precisely my observation -- most Tesla's still have the motor and battery warranties and we will find out in a year or two how much it cost to maintain them lol. My friend's Model S had an issue with a handle outside warranty and it cost him $300+ CAD. He said the part is like $10. Other handles had issues but were fixed under warranty.

I think in the future, longer range BEVs (200 km or more originally) will have some residual value, likely dependent on the state of the battery (condition, worn cells, current driving range) and also how much and how easy the battery modules/cells can be replaced (think gray market Toyota Prius cell replacements).

I mean, I would pick up a 20 y.o. Toyota/Lexus (maybe Honda too) BEV and be willing to pay $2,000 compared to any 20 y.o. ICEV for $500 because I know I will be saving on fuel costs with the BEV but not the ICEV.

@Levi is correct thought in that we don't know how long these batteries really last. Remember Tesla does provide some generous buffer and to keep capacity, it slowly releases these buffer, to make it look like there is little battery degradation. Maybe in year 10 or 11, these batteries will be no more thanks to fast charging and neglect of the 20-90% SOC.

The eight year warranty is mandated by US regulators because maybe it is part of the ICEV emission system.


Importantly, federal regulations mandate that an EV’s battery pack, arguably its most costly component, be covered for at least eight years or 100,000 miles. For its part, Hyundai extends this to lifetime coverage on the new-for-2019 Kona Electric.
 

internalaudit

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Also, remember the batteries are proprietary to Panasonic, but we know Tesla wanted the built more for performance and not longevity.

Tesla doesn’t own the battery-cell technology that goes into its batteries; that belongs to its partner, Japanese conglomerate Panasonic PCRFY, +0.15% 6752, +0.76% . Tesla designed the battery pack the enclosure that houses the battery cells) and the battery management system controller (computer) that routes and manages electricity flow and the microclimate of the battery cells.

The battery is a key technology for Tesla, but at the moment Panasonic is in control of a big part of it. Just as Apple chose to bring development of the CPU that powers its iPhone in-house, Tesla, which is vertically integrated, may eventually increase its control over its battery technology. The company’s purchase of Maxwell Technologies, which has a battery technology that may significantly lower the cost of cell manufacturing, is the first move toward independence from Panasonic.
 

Will1991

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Still haven’t read anything regarding warranty.

They kind of pour purposely made it really hard to sell in Europe with Pricing (for a average spec at best) and ChaDeMo 50kW...
 

internalaudit

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I am relaxing my torque vectoring requirement (would still pay for it though if it's an option) and will put battery longevity to the fore since I am not the type who flips cars every three to six years.

Battery warranty will dictate confidence and at least Toyota bumped the warranty up on its HEVs and PHEVs to 10 years / 240,000km.

Just imagine if Tesla beats that and offers 12 years / 480,000 km lol. It will be a race to the top. In 10 years, maybe aftermarket parts outside of the DU and battery will exist.

Still rooting for Toyota/Lexus if only because I loved my Tokyo visit in December even when I didn't get to visit many POI's (the Lexus store was not that impressive), because I don't want to spend a lot of money on upkeep and don't want to be nickel and dimed when selecting options.
 

Will1991

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I believe it's the best battery warranty out there... It's a clear indication they expect top reliability!

Toyota's private importer for Portugal (TCAP - Toyota Caetano Portugal) already offered a 10 year warranty for some time, but it was a local effort, not European.

A bit off-topic but, @internalaudit , did you visited Toyota's Museum (Nagoya)? I'm planing to go there in the short therm (maybe around Oct 2020 or Jun/Jul 2021).
 

internalaudit

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I believe it's the best battery warranty out there... It's a clear indication they expect top reliability!

Toyota's private importer for Portugal (TCAP - Toyota Caetano Portugal) already offered a 10 year warranty for some time, but it was a local effort, not European.

A bit off-topic but, @internalaudit , did you visited Toyota's Museum (Nagoyoa)? I'm planing to go there in the short therm (maybe around Oct 2020 or Jun/Jul 2021).
Good to know about the warranty.

I only went to the Brand Experience Center in Tokyo's Midtown Hibiya. I was looking at the accessories and there's even very few that are actually Lexus brand-related. Many were kind of luxury items like chess sets, scarves, and weird trinkets.

We did sit inside a red LC500 with tan interior but only that and a RX were on display.
 

internalaudit

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I believe it's the best battery warranty out there... It's a clear indication they expect top reliability!

Toyota's private importer for Portugal (TCAP - Toyota Caetano Portugal) already offered a 10 year warranty for some time, but it was a local effort, not European.

A bit off-topic but, @internalaudit , did you visited Toyota's Museum (Nagoyoa)? I'm planing to go there in the short therm (maybe around Oct 2020 or Jun/Jul 2021).
Didn't know Professor Braga is Portuguese!
 

Will1991

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Didn't know Professor Braga is Portuguese!
Despite an awful state-funding and some of them having a low salary for what they achieve, we tend to get good research and development results.

By the way, if you or anyone from LE more participative members wants to visit Portugal, send me a PM and I would gladly give you some tips and show you some Portuguese delicacies. If Porto is in your list, coffee is on me!

Clearly a competitor, the Tesla Model Y has begun production.
Specifications (range/power/charging speed/space) is so far off despite close pricing (if you choose a well speced UX) that I’m having some doubts our UX300e will make any opposition for the TMY...
 

internalaudit

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True. But I'm still turned off by this $5-7k USD replacement cost per module (four on the TM3) and that cost is probably understated. That's almost half of the vehicle price if all four goes after the warranty period. Maybe it won't but might as well wait on the sideline and find out. Two to three more years and we will come across data points on out of warranty issues on the TM3 batteries. If they're not, LICE (legacy ICE) better watch out.


That million mile battery is going to put a nail on may LICE manufacturers' coffin but of course, the battery warranty should reflect part of that claim. :)
 

internalaudit

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Wow. Tesla dropped the bomb and removed unlimited mileage on the S and X battery. Was also confirmed for the United States. Now I can probably confirm the million mile battery isn't coming any time soon lol.

 

ssun30

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As I've said it's possible to get almost unlimited cycles from batteries making million-mile BEVs more common than ICEVs. Never use fast charge, never demand more than 1C worth of power, always keep SoC between 30% and 80%, always store the car in an air conditioned garage, always preheat battery in winter. It sounds very complicated but it's actually easier than maintaining a million mile ICEV.

But for the general public BEVs will have much worse expected mileage.
 
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