internalaudit

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∆ Are you suggesting good individual li-ion BEV cells can easily surpass 1500 full charge cycles?

Even 300 km x 1500 full charges is only 450,000 km.

I am sure the motor can last very long but 450,000 km for the battery is okay but not spectacular especially if there is power degradation, besides capacity which is a given.

When there are enough compelling used BEVs with replaceable battery design in mind, maybe things will get more interesting in terms of aftermarket battery support.

No wonder Toyota is focusing on HEVs and PHEVs for now since battery could be a big liability with it's eight year or longer warranty.

Hopefully next gen batteries like from Enevate, Ilika or Toyota do come out middle of the decade, even if initially only for higher-end models.
 
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spwolf

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This well get a hard time to sell in Europe...

For Norway (only trim packages), a UX250h FWD goes from 417.200kr to 524.100kr, a UX250h AWD goes from 461.500kr to 628.100kr.... A Volvo XC40 Recharge (direct competition, AWD vs FWD, 300kW vs. 150kW, 75kWh vs. 54.3kWh usable energy, 150kW DC vs 50kW DC) will start at 499.900kr...

Pricing will be a lot sensitive for this one...
@Will1991 do you live in Norway?
 

Will1991

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@Will1991 do you live in Norway?
Portugal, but was really looking forward for UX300e, since this would be enough range for me (I usually do 2~2.500km per month but longest trip is around 320km on highway). But a hefty price next to all competition and only CHAdeMO fast charging... It seems they choose to make it a hard sell to say "we're not investing on BEV's because we only have so few sales"...
 

internalaudit

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Portugal, but was really looking forward for UX300e, since this would be enough range for me (I usually do 2~2.500km per month but longest trip is around 320km on highway). But a hefty price next to all competition and only CHAdeMO fast charging... It seems they choose to make it a hard sell to say "we're not investing on BEV's because we only have so few sales"...
I think it has to do more with the battery technology. SSB and whatever next-gen batteries with >2,000 charge cycles probably everything going to do it.

Toyota and Panasonic to establish joint venture specializing in automotive batteries: prismatic Li-ion, solid-state and next-gen

 
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spwolf

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Portugal, but was really looking forward for UX300e, since this would be enough range for me (I usually do 2~2.500km per month but longest trip is around 320km on highway). But a hefty price next to all competition and only CHAdeMO fast charging... It seems they choose to make it a hard sell to say "we're not investing on BEV's because we only have so few sales"...
yeah, so we have no idea what the pricing will be in Norway based on UX250h pricing since EVs have lower taxes than hybrids in Norway (hence such big EV sales).

Additionally, UX250h is always more expensive than base Volvo, because base Volvo looks and has features of a Punto.
 

Will1991

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I think it has to do more with the battery technology. SSB and whatever next-gen batteries with >2,000 charge cycles probably going to do it.

Toyota and Panasonic to establish joint venture specializing in automotive batteries: prismatic Li-ion, solid-state and next-gen

After that report, I'm betting we will see some BEV's with "standard" LiON... I'm also betting we won't see SSB at dealer lots before 2025...

yeah, so we have no idea what the pricing will be in Norway based on UX250h pricing since EVs have lower taxes than hybrids in Norway (hence such big EV sales).

Additionally, UX250h is always more expensive than base Volvo, because base Volvo looks and has features of a Punto.
After your question I went to Lexus.No and you're right, Norway does give good incentives.

A UX300e is cheaper than a UX250h! It starts at 369.900kr. A Tesla Model 3 SR+ starts at 389.900kr.
As a update, a UX300e is 1.000€ more expensive than a Tesla Model 3 SR+ in the Netherlands.
 

internalaudit

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After that report, I'm betting we will see some BEV's with "standard" LiON... I'm also betting we won't see SSB at dealer lots before 2025...



After your question I went to Lexus.No and you're right, Norway does give good incentives.

A UX300e is cheaper than a UX250h! It starts at 369.900kr. A Tesla Model 3 SR+ starts at 389.900kr.
As a update, a UX300e is 1.000€ more expensive than a Tesla Model 3 SR+ in the Netherlands.
We will definitely see li-ion batteries on Toyota and Lexus vehicles before 2025 (one upgrade to li-ion could be Enevate's silicon anode) but for these BEVs, I'd rather buy them used when they're 40-50% off (after government incentives). At 1,500 charge cycles (at most), buying them new doesn't make sense for people who have ICEVs to tide them over. We spend around $2,500-3,500 CAD per year on fuel. Any new or newish car purchase will come with a much bigger depreciation and with BEVs, I think I'll wait for battery technology to improve.

I am all for cleaner air but of course I have to think of the welfare of my household and pocketbook first, and that includes total cost of car ownership. 273,000 km on our 02 Civic and 142,000 km on our 11 Accord and 70,000+ on 16 RAV4H so even lasting 450,000 km, a BEV battery is not at all amazing to me since rebuilt Toyota or Honda engines are so cheap compared to whatever replacement batteries are going to cost us (if they're even available down the road). I'm just being practical and realistic.

I would only buy a brand new BEV if the battery is warranted a little over 10 years and beyond 240,000 km. I hope Toyota is listening but I'm sure 10 year/240k km will remain until SSB or next gen batteries become more mainstream.
 
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spwolf

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After that report, I'm betting we will see some BEV's with "standard" LiON... I'm also betting we won't see SSB at dealer lots before 2025...



After your question I went to Lexus.No and you're right, Norway does give good incentives.

A UX300e is cheaper than a UX250h! It starts at 369.900kr. A Tesla Model 3 SR+ starts at 389.900kr.
As a update, a UX300e is 1.000€ more expensive than a Tesla Model 3 SR+ in the Netherlands.
I dont think Netherlands gives the same incentives though, but pricing difference between Tesla should be the same unless it is not completely different market positioning.
 

Levi

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As I've said it's possible to get almost unlimited cycles from batteries making million-mile BEVs more common than ICEVs. Never use fast charge, never demand more than 1C worth of power, always keep SoC between 30% and 80%, always store the car in an air conditioned garage, always preheat battery in winter. It sounds very complicated but it's actually easier than maintaining a million mile ICEV.

But for the general public BEVs will have much worse expected mileage.

You say by doing this and this and that, millon-mile BEVs can be more common than ICEVs. If what one does for BEVs did for ICEVs, they would also be more common, but we know the general public does not take alot of care, so why will it be different with BEVs?

In future yes, BEVs can be much better, but quality remains the crucial point. Samsung phones are still exploding from time to time (not sure if real issue or individual cases regardless of product). In construction work, battery powered tools were quite weak for the tough environment. Now cordless battery powertools have taken over wired tools, except for the very powerful ones and those that work for long periods.
 
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internalaudit

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So far, I've only seen 1,500 full charge cycles talked about in the media for current state of the art li-ion batteries so even if it meant 50% more life charging from 20-80%, that is still below 600k km for a Tesla. I doubt battery degradation is non-existent based on this video, where so many factors lead to degradation, including time, which is creeping up for many Model S'es:



Hard to say since the batteries are owned by Panasonic so I'm sure there's quality and reliability to them but

1500 x 400 km x 60% x 150% = 540,000 km.

And for people who keep suggesting battery replacement cost will be 50% 10 years from now, where are they getting this information? Maybe those battery packs are going to be costly to replace or maybe the manufacture (like Tesla system rejecting unauthorized serial numbers, parts, etc. on the BEV drive / powertrain) will make it hard to reconstruct the battery pack (like people do on Toyota Hybrids) so worst case, the BEV is rendered immobile. That is a big possibility too..

Even gasoline engines pricing don't drop 50% over a decade but sure they do in scrap yards and maybe purposely rebuilt ones.
 

ssun30

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So far, I've only seen 1,500 full charge cycles talked about in the media for current state of the art li-ion batteries so even if it meant 50% more life charging from 20-80%, that is still below 600k km for a Tesla. I doubt battery degradation is non-existent based on this video, where so many factors lead to degradation, including time, which is creeping up for many Model S'es:
As explained in that video, full discharge cycles cause irreversible damage to the electrodes which accounts for most of the degradation. Shallow cycles cause much less damage so cycle count does not scale linearly. 1,000 cycles from 95% to 5% does not mean 1,500 cycles from 80% to 20%, the actual number is much much higher.

The hybrid batteries used by the older generation Prius last over 200,000km during which they go through tens of thousands of cycles by using very shallow cycles (40-80%). Remember these batteries also operate at very high C-rates (>10C). The latest generation have even more stress on the batteries since the car operates in EV mode almost 80% of the time.
 

internalaudit

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As explained in that video, full discharge cycles cause irreversible damage to the electrodes which accounts for most of the degradation. Shallow cycles cause much less damage so cycle count does not scale linearly. 1,000 cycles from 95% to 5% does not mean 1,500 cycles from 80% to 20%, the actual number is much much higher.

The hybrid batteries used by the older generation Prius last over 200,000km during which they go through tens of thousands of cycles by using very shallow cycles (40-80%). Remember these batteries also operate at very high C-rates (>10C). The latest generation have even more stress on the batteries since the car operates in EV mode almost 80% of the time.
Does Ni-Mh degrade faster chemically vs. Li-ion if subjected to the same stressors?

Good to know these Li-ion can last a lot longer in BEVs and I didn't know at SOC between 30 and 80%, they can go for 3,000 plus charge cycles if not more. Learning something new each day.

I am beginning to wonder why Toyota and Panasonic are working on solid state batteries and next gen batteries if Li-ion is so good now.
 

ssun30

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Does Ni-Mh degrade faster chemically vs. Li-ion if subjected to the same stressors?

Good to know these Li-ion can last a lot longer in BEVs and I didn't know at SOC between 30 and 80%, they can go for 3,000 plus charge cycles if not more. Learning something new each day.

I am beginning to wonder why Toyota and Panasonic are working on solid state batteries and next gen batteries if Li-ion is so good now.
To your first question: I couldn't give you an answer because the two need to be compared at similar C-rate and depth of charge. Most comparisons are apples to oranges. But I would say Li-ion is better because at the same power output it has lower C-rate (the base capacity is larger).

To your second question, it's quite simple: economics, safety, and long-term durability.
 

internalaudit

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To your first question: I couldn't give you an answer because the two need to be compared at similar C-rate and depth of charge. Most comparisons are apples to oranges. But I would say Li-ion is better because at the same power output it has lower C-rate (the base capacity is larger).

To your second question, it's quite simple: economics, safety, and long-term durability.
Perfect. I am going to wait lol.
 

internalaudit

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@Will1991 , I'm buying a friend's 2012 CT200h (200k km) for a song ($6k CAD) lol. I didn't lowball her, okay. She says she hasn't noticed any issues with EGR/intake manifold/gasket/coolant/motor oil so that's a relief. That seems the biggest problem for the car.

Now I am confident I can wait for the solid state batteries or next gen batteries from Toyota.

Update:

I lucked out. Friend opted for the F Sport package. I think the 2013 details is not going to be much different from the 2012:

Media release.

Besides not being AWD and the potential issues that may not even affect the car, I think my daughter will be quite happy. :)
 
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Will1991

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Your used car market is so much better than mine.... Here a 2011 with 200.000 is still more than 12.000€!

Don't forget to show us some pictures, a CT will hardly look old since it was so well designed for his size.
 

internalaudit

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Your used car market is so much better than mine.... Here a 2011 with 200.000 is still more than 12.000€!

Don't forget to show us some pictures, a CT will hardly look old since it was so well designed for his size.
It was meant for my nephew but his parents backed out of the deal. Seller based pricing on quick sale on a local car classified website. A friend of hers wanted it for free lol so maybe that factored in her willingness to sell inexpensively. Not sure if that peron is a real friend of the Seller. Seller is leaving the country

My Civic can tide me over but I can't drive it long distance so I considered buying the CT for one night and decided it was a good buy especially since the seller is a friend and confirmed she has had none of those symptoms/issues relating to EGR/intake/headgasket.

Hope she is right lol.

What is not to like besides lack of AWD and slowness -- price, 3rd gen Toyota hybrid technology, eCVT, timing chain, great fuel economy, dealership maintained, winter tires with no rims though? :)

Will definitely share some photos,even of dings and dents that I am not aware of but she mentioned one of those.
 
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Will1991

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Lexus Europe Newsroom has announced what's going to be present at Geneva (for European reveal):

LC500 convertible: https://newsroom.lexus.eu/lexus-lc-500-convertible-makes-its-european-debut-at-the-2020-geneva-motor-show/

LF-30 concept: https://newsroom.lexus.eu/lexus-showcases-its-vision-of-future-electrification-at-2020-geneva-motor-show/

UX300e: https://newsroom.lexus.eu/european-debut-of-lexus-first-all-electric-vehicle-the-ux-300e/

Well... I won't say that wasn't expecting a bit more from the first Lexus BEV, or even other options (CCS at 100kW for example) given it's high price (from what I've see on other markets such as Netherlands and Norway). But, it should be very reliable and it has a proper (maybe over-engineered even) BMS system which is paramount for battery pack longevity. Also, Toyota is incorporating (what seems to be) a correct methodology for production-use-2nd life-dismantling for the batteries, what is the only proper way to go to really improve environment impact as @ssun30 stated on another thread.
 

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Lexus has once again confirmed that the upcoming full-electric UX 300e will not be coming to North America, this time in an Automotive News interview with brand president Koji Sato:

Automotive News: Lexus launches its first EV, the UX 300e compact SUV, at the end of this year in Europe. Where else is this car going?
Sato: China, Japan and some Asian countries. But the main focus is Europe and China because of high demand and [emissions] regulations.
Why not the U.S.?
We sell UX in the U.S., but there is no plan to introduce an EV variant because there is no demand there and the regulation situation is different. Our fundamental strategy for electrified technology is “Right place, right timing, right price.”

This remains a disappointing decision from the brand, as even a token...
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