Tesla Model 3 Performance

LS500-18

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If you look at it as if you want to hate it, then yes.
If you want to try to see why it is successful, then you would look at it different way.

It is definitely not bare bones economy car, it definitely does not ride bad, and its FSD is best FSD that exists.

So OMG, Tesla auto steering is so bad, I will then buy a Toyota/Mercedes/Ford/BMW with much worse auto steering.
You must sure own a lot of Tesla stock! Honda Civics have a nicer interior with more features than a 3.

FSD is terrible. Hey I bought FSD on my second Tesla in 2018 and it has gotten better but it will never be the Level 5 that Elon said it would be, their own lawyers admitted as such in a lawsuit over the matter.

I drove Teslas for 6 years and honestly the cars are fun to drive but it's dealing with the constant repairs, endless "coming soon", and the company (service policies etc) and the d1ckhead CEO that really ruin the ownership. Admire Tesla from afar but don't buy one, that's my advice LOL.

 

ssun30

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Tesla's autosteering is actually no better than LKA on TSS2.5 or higher, as well as a whole bunch of off-the-shelf ADAS solutions.

It's one thing to admit Tesla is ahead in many areas, and another to admit the industry have caught up in some areas.
 

spwolf

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Tesla's autosteering is actually no better than LKA on TSS2.5 or higher, as well as a whole bunch of off-the-shelf ADAS solutions.

It's one thing to admit Tesla is ahead in many areas, and another to admit the industry have caught up in some areas.

it is actually a lot better than LKA on TSS, it is not even close.
Toyota and most other systems will quite often quit on you when turn gets complicated, with a beep of warning.

Up until year ago, adaptive cruise control was pretty bad in Tesla, worse than in pretty much any other vehicle i tried. It got a lot better in last 6-7 months of updates.

But what people refer to FSD is a public beta version that is only in NA and only available to certain owners. I dont have that, and FSD on its own is nothing special.

In any case, haters be haters, Tesla will sell 2x more vehicles than Lexus this year and they will do it at higher average sell price.
It is all right deserved and this is why Lexus is going EV only in next few years.
 

IS-SV

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i

In any case, haters be haters, Tesla will sell 2x more vehicles than Lexus this year and they will do it at higher average sell price.
It is all right deserved and this is why Lexus is going EV only in next few years.
The haters spewing outdated information based on early ownership experiences before 2018 (I should offer my condolences because they put up with a lot of crap no doubt) as early adopters is not relevant in 2022. Therefore just mostly off topic rhetoric in a Model 3 Performance thread.

Tesla today is building and selling over a million per year of desirable cars (mainly 3 and Y) at better gross margins than any mainstream automaker today. It's a business, that happens to be a very strong automotive business.
 

LS500-18

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Up until year ago, adaptive cruise control was pretty bad in Tesla, worse than in pretty much any other vehicle i tried. It got a lot better in last 6-7 months of updates.
I spoke with 2 owners on the weekend, both have older Teslas with radar (one 2018, one 2019). They both complained that a software update earlier this year disabled the radar so they now get phantom braking on the highway, they hate that. They didn't used to have that happen when Tesla used to use radar.
 

Will1991

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it is actually a lot better than LKA on TSS, it is not even close.
Toyota and most other systems will quite often quit on you when turn gets complicated, with a beep of warning.

Up until year ago, adaptive cruise control was pretty bad in Tesla, worse than in pretty much any other vehicle i tried. It got a lot better in last 6-7 months of updates.

But what people refer to FSD is a public beta version that is only in NA and only available to certain owners. I dont have that, and FSD on its own is nothing special.

In any case, haters be haters, Tesla will sell 2x more vehicles than Lexus this year and they will do it at higher average sell price.
It is all right deserved and this is why Lexus is going EV only in next few years.


As far FSD or even autopilot/LKA goes, I think a driver facing camera should be mandatory... Those weights you can buy to trick the computers to think you're holding the wheel is really dangerous... I'm certain that a lot of issues and crashes that made a lot of headlines wouldn't be a problem if all the manufacturers needed to comply with some sort of "eyes on the road".

Another thing is sales, I'm not a Tesla fan but they simply don't have any real competition when you compare them in a spreadsheet... Even the way how the GPS works, planning your trip and how you charge the car on a SUC it's pretty spectacular.
I struggle a lot and I'm not able to understand how nobody managed to make a real TM3 competitor 5 years later and how, with so much public funding, so much legislation and so much money poured into public charging we're still, 10 years after the original LEAF, in the same place were it's impossible to have a similar function to Tesla SUC network working on all BEV's with every country public charging network.
 

CRSKTN

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it is actually a lot better than LKA on TSS, it is not even close.
Toyota and most other systems will quite often quit on you when turn gets complicated, with a beep of warning.

Up until year ago, adaptive cruise control was pretty bad in Tesla, worse than in pretty much any other vehicle i tried. It got a lot better in last 6-7 months of updates.

But what people refer to FSD is a public beta version that is only in NA and only available to certain owners. I dont have that, and FSD on its own is nothing special.

In any case, haters be haters, Tesla will sell 2x more vehicles than Lexus this year and they will do it at higher average sell price.
It is all right deserved and this is why Lexus is going EV only in next few years.

You don’t have Lexus’ average sale price, so that’s pretty funny.

Q2 sales were a big miss on already lowered/cherry-picked sales estimates (Tesla IR like many do their own analyst consensus building). Down 50,000 from Q1.

Soon their expenditures on their other plants will shift from R&D to production, and you’ll start to get a sense for where their long term margins will land.

They just hiked prices again, likely because they expect increased materials costs to start to show on their financials.

They are heavily dependent on continued growth and scaling, at a time when their biggest competitors are now just starting to enter the EV space, and as relations are irreversibly declining with their largest market for sales growth and an enormous amount of their production. Shanghai shutting down helped the big miss this quarter.

They barely outsold just Toyotas luxury division last year, during a period where their supply chain hoarding let them continue delivering in volume while companies like TMC and others ran into bottenecks.

They need loaded out model 3s for their margins. Not basic model 3s or lower margin (if any margin?) S/X sales. That’s also the market segment that’s under the most pressure from competitors like Cadillac, and fundamentally different from car makers where individual models economically need to stand on their own 2 feet.

Improving supply chain will only improve conditions for their competitors relative to Tesla. Additionally, we are in a market where cost of capital will increasingly determine sustainability of margins, growth, etc.

That said, let’s see what Q3 looks like for them. Maybe they’ll smoothly open the floodgates and somehow do 450k sales per quarter from 250k in Q2. Assuming Chinese lockdowns don’t continue as well, which seems like unlikely given whisperings of the current policies being in place until the end of the year to help reduce Chinese energy/fuel demands towards the end of the year as winter and shortages should see energy prices move higher.
 

Levi

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One thing don't understand is how Model Y gets a pass for being a decade old design. Could have come in 2012, no one would notice. Even Apple products changed design more often.
 

spwolf

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You don’t have Lexus’ average sale price, so that’s pretty funny.

Who is "me"? I dont own Tesla stock or TMC stock, there is no me in the picture.

But yes, Tesla has higher revenues than Lexus overall.
Just as Tesla has to shutdown factories, so do Toyota and Lexus.
Tesla will easily sell 50% more vehicles than Lexus this year, and yes, average sale price is going to be higher than Lexus.

TMC is aware of this, which is why they are changing course so heavily and announcing Lexus going all BEV. They understand their middle and lower managment do not understand this, hence announcement of the change.

Just few months ago, I had local Toyota management tell me how hydrogen is future, that BEVs suck, all while we dont have a single hydrogen pump 500 miles around our city, and while they were receiving first bz4x's and expecting RZ's soon.

There is a huge difference between TMC higher management who tracks RZ to be >10% of European sales next year, and middle management who thinks Mirai (that they never sold) is the future, and BEVs suck.

This is why Toyoda announced that Lexus is going to be all BEV from 2030, to try to influence this change.
 

CRSKTN

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In any case, haters be haters, Tesla will sell 2x more vehicles than Lexus this year and they will do it at higher average sell price

You wrote this, then threw a tantrum:
Who is "me"? I dont own Tesla stock or TMC stock, there is no me in the picture.

And then you doubled down again
Tesla will easily sell 50% more vehicles than Lexus this year, and yes, average sale price is going to be higher than Lexus.

At this point not worth the discussion.

Final point, easily selling 50% more than them means Lexus continues to have supply chain issues like last year, and somehow Tesla undoes their poor quarter, ramps immediately to numbers they’ve never sustained, China opens back up and goes full speed, and their market segments remain empty of competition.

And I would love to see which executives at the company you spoke to to hear those views in late 2022. Toyota employs 350k+ people. This was your weekly lunch with Akio or Koji I’m guessing. They’re approaching multiple avenues for electrification, not any single solution. Also TMC as a group sells 10.5MM vehicles per year. Once anyone else can scale to that extent and keep operating smoothly, let me know.

Their product sales mix does not bode well for trying to retain market share and fat margins and others enter these segments. Not to mention making their cars competitive as people stop dishing out thousands for non existent functionality, and terrible build quality/service/interiors/reliability. The story also has big policy risk, especially once the government can begin to use the big domestics as an EV cudgel against Tesla.

All those years of taking advantage of the situation will backfire when the government has other options to support in the sustainable mobility segment. Not to mention future penalties / second class treatment from Tesla’s cozy relations with China.
 
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ssun30

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Another thing is sales, I'm not a Tesla fan but they simply don't have any real competition when you compare them in a spreadsheet... Even the way how the GPS works, planning your trip and how you charge the car on a SUC it's pretty spectacular.
I struggle a lot and I'm not able to understand how nobody managed to make a real TM3 competitor 5 years later and how, with so much public funding, so much legislation and so much money poured into public charging we're still, 10 years after the original LEAF, in the same place were it's impossible to have a similar function to Tesla SUC network working on all BEV's with every country public charging network.
Because the EV market outside of China isn't competitive enough.

There are plenty of TM3 competitors in China exactly because competition is so fierce. And before anyone says made in China bad or something, Tesla sources components from local suppliers, so there's no magical "Tesla advantage" there. The BYD Seal which got over 100000 preorders and projected to be the best selling EV sedan for 2022/23 is the first EV to use CTB packaging (yes, they skipped CTP). 82kWh LFP blade battery + 390kW of power in a $44k package. If they offered it in US I would buy one over TM3P any day of the week. That's why I no longer believe in "Tesla superiority" like I did two or three years ago. Just for disclosure I did own BYD stock but not now.

So, once adoption of EVs pick up, competition becomes so fierce that car makers have to offer products close or surpassing Tesla. And that's a healthy competition for consumers.
 

Will1991

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82kWh from a LFP battery is quite impressive! Wasn't aware of that car.

Also, CTB should be quite an improvement to inside car ergonomics for BEV sedans!
 

IS-SV

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One thing don't understand is how Model Y gets a pass for being a decade old design. Could have come in 2012, no one would notice. Even Apple products changed design more often.
Not sure where "decade old design" comes from, because it's not. But in US 2021 Tesla Mode Y easily outsold the highly successful Lexus RX (161K vs 115K units). Neither company is trying to copy Apple product life cycles.

(btw per Lexus USA: "Lexus USA sold 304,476 vehicles in 2021, an 11.8% increase over 2020 and their best year since 2017", so it was a good year for both brands).
 

ssun30

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82kWh from a LFP battery is quite impressive! Wasn't aware of that car.

Also, CTB should be quite an improvement to inside car ergonomics for BEV sedans!
I think most car manufacturers should just skip CTP directly to CTB. Both BYD and Tesla have decided to do so.
 

Will1991

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To be honest, I was expecting more from TMC with the bz series… I guess we need to wait until 2025 for the second generation to come and truly have a technical marvel.
 

CRSKTN

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Quick, somebody get a problematic middle aged man in here to defend Elon
 

LS500-18

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A hunger strike, really? You think an egomaniac billionaire will care? In order to get his attention you need to drag the stock price down, that's about the only thing he notices.

Or you could do what I did when I was fed up with endless problems with my Tesla, I traded it for a Lexus. Problem solved instantly.
 
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IS-SV

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Or you could do what I did when to avoid endless problems with my Teslas, I bought late model year Model 3's (2020 SRP and 2021 LR AWD). Problem solved/avoided instantly.

Off topic - Skip the experimental early model year Model S's, they were more like prototypes not designed for ease of manufacturability (or durability). Elon could benefit from a hunger strike and some exercise btw.