Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[Gor134]

BestCar just put out an article reporting not speculating, that the next generation GR86 has just begun testing and will utilize a modified Lexus IS platform, and pair the G16 with a hybrid system. Now they do make mention that the Lexus IS is an old platform.

Wondering.. they are very confident in this rumour, what if this will actually be the future "TNGA-A" platform for new RWD products I believe @F1 Silver Arrows mentioned, and may possibly shared with a next-gen Lexus IS, and not actually the old IS platform? This would make a lot of sense as to why they would believe the next-gen GR86 would be based on a modified IS platform.

And especially with the new reports that Toyota is scaling back on their EV efforts if I understood correctly.. could possibly mean for a next-gen ICE IS? Just being a little optimistic.. thoughts?

 

[Levi]

BestCar just put out an article reporting not speculating, that the next generation GR86 has just begun testing and will utilize a modified Lexus IS platform, and pair the G16 with a hybrid system. Now they do make mention that the Lexus IS is an old platform.

Wondering.. they are very confident in this rumour, what if this will actually be the future "TNGA-A" platform for new RWD products I believe @F1 Silver Arrows mentioned, and may possibly shared with a next-gen Lexus IS, and not actually the old IS platform? This would make a lot of sense as to why they would believe the next-gen GR86 would be based on a modified IS platform.

And especially with the new reports that Toyota is scaling back on their EV efforts if I understood correctly.. could possibly mean for a next-gen ICE IS? Just being a little optimistic.. thoughts?

Toyota is not scaling back on BEVs, just planning to be more competitive.

 

[Gor134]

Toyota is not scaling back on BEVs, just planning to be more competitive.

You are definitely right on that, wonder how it'll affect their SSB plans. Still, the planned cars have to be pushed back I would think

 

[spwolf]

Toyota scrambling behind the scenes to reboot EV strategy

The recognition within Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, that Tesla has set a new benchmark for EV manufacturing costs marks a major reversal.

www.autoblog.com

TMC is usually good at achieving cost reductions, so they understand that they are very far behind when it comes to production costs of EV. It is not just the batteries, but everything together.

Tesla has been working really hard, with a lot of Kaizen, to integrate components together and lower the production costs.

With TMC being so far away, that is probably a reason battery in BZ4X is 72kwh and not 82kwh for instance, which would solve a lot of their range issues. They would simply lose even more money per vehicle.

The whole problem, as per article, comes from idea that EVs will actually not sell well so they will need to produce them together on the same lines as regular vehicles. Thus they can not achieve cost reductions that Tesla can with dedicated EV platforms and systems.

Now that prediction is that EV will sell more than expected by 2025, TMC has to figure out how to cut their cost before they end up development of these vehicles.

 

[ssun30]

This report is not consistent with the three FAW/GAC plants currently under construction that are BEVs only. However if you've been following the news, investing in ChDM just become a huge risk a couple of days ago.

On another note, they sold combined 5500 C-HR EVs last year out of 17600 annual capacity. And that is with on average ￥100k of dealership discounts effectively making it cheaper than not just the regular C-HR but an entry-level Corolla. The C-HR battery upgrade plan didn't happen probably because they realized it's a lost cause.

They were caught in a loop of making uncompetitive overpriced junk that nobody buys which further hurts economies of scale. Having a line at 70% idle isn't the best way to make money.

 

[internalaudit]

Is there a sales quota in China or EU where a minimum of BEVs have to be sold alongside other vehicles? I think without a quota, Toyota will drag its feet for the time being, even if it means loss of sales.

 

[ssun30]

Is there a sales quota in China or EU where a minimum of BEVs have to be sold alongside other vehicles? I think without a quota, Toyota will drag its feet for the time being, even if it means loss of sales.

The problem with the Double Credit system is the supply of EV credits far outweigh demand making it dirt cheap, and there is a complex network of transfer schemes that allows for example FAW-Toyota to get credits for free from another FAW JV, so Toyota barely gets punished for not selling enough EVs.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

BestCar just put out an article reporting not speculating, that the next generation GR86 has just begun testing and will utilize a modified Lexus IS platform, and pair the G16 with a hybrid system. Now they do make mention that the Lexus IS is an old platform.

Wondering.. they are very confident in this rumour, what if this will actually be the future "TNGA-A" platform for new RWD products I believe @F1 Silver Arrows mentioned, and may possibly shared with a next-gen Lexus IS, and not actually the old IS platform? This would make a lot of sense as to why they would believe the next-gen GR86 would be based on a modified IS platform.

And especially with the new reports that Toyota is scaling back on their EV efforts if I understood correctly.. could possibly mean for a next-gen ICE IS? Just being a little optimistic.. thoughts?

Mhm this is exactly what I wanted to see.

RWD Lexus vehicles, GR Supra, GR86 and any other RWD Toyota product could sit on this platform. This is literally my dream.

 

[Gecko]

BestCar just put out an article reporting not speculating, that the next generation GR86 has just begun testing and will utilize a modified Lexus IS platform, and pair the G16 with a hybrid system. Now they do make mention that the Lexus IS is an old platform.

Wondering.. they are very confident in this rumour, what if this will actually be the future "TNGA-A" platform for new RWD products I believe @F1 Silver Arrows mentioned, and may possibly shared with a next-gen Lexus IS, and not actually the old IS platform? This would make a lot of sense as to why they would believe the next-gen GR86 would be based on a modified IS platform.

And especially with the new reports that Toyota is scaling back on their EV efforts if I understood correctly.. could possibly mean for a next-gen ICE IS? Just being a little optimistic.. thoughts?

Best Car has been striking out the last few months, and this has to be another one. Next gen ~2027? GR 86 being based on a passenger car platform from 2013 that weighs 1k lbs more than the current one (and was never optimized for hybrid powertrains)?

Definitely no.

Scaleable architectures work less effectively on sports cars because every inch of wheelbase or change in weight distribution significantly impacts suspension tuning and performance behavior. It would be impossible to create a platform that could serve GR 86, Supra and the GT3 concept because their use cases are drastically different.

GR 86 = 4 cyl
Supra = 6 cyl
GT3 = 8 cyl
Some with hybrids, some with PHEVs, some without.

The use cases are just too different to be scaled easily with good results. Codeveloping a Supra with something like an RC? Sure, it works! Engineering the GT3 concept to work as a Lexus product ("LFR?") and the next gen Supra if it moves upmarket? Yep! GT3 concept to GR 86 and everything in between? No.

On unibody pedestrian cars like RAV4, Sienna or Crown, it's easier to correct platform variations with AWD, suspension tuning or packaging, but it's just not so with sports cars that are more precise and less forgiving. This is exactly why Toyota has partnered with Subaru and BMW instead of creating their own platform - if they could have scaled it, they could have probably made the business case on their own.

 

[Gor134]

Best Car has been striking out the last few months, and this has to be another one. Next gen ~2027? GR 86 being based on a platform from 2013 that weighs 1k lbs more than the current one (and was never optimized for hybrid powertrains)?

Definitely no.

That's why I was speculating there may be some things lost in translation from what was reported to them, and the GR86 being based on the IS platform would be a next-gen platform, which they just assumed to be the old one?

Scaleable architectures work less effectively on sports cars because every inch of wheelbase or change in weight distribution significantly impacts suspension tuning and performance behavior. It would be impossible to create a platform that could serve GR 86, Supra and the GT3 concept because their use cases are drastically different.

I mean.. the "CLAR" architecture Supra/Z4 are shared with anything from the 3-Series to the X7, so a scalable platform for multiple sports cars definitely feels even more likely in my opinion.

 

[ssun30]

They didn't say it will share platform with next-gen IS because it doesn't exist. That's bad translation.

They said it will use the floor section of the current IS and shrink its wheelbase, and combine it with some TNGA technology to create a new platform. Of course the weight has grown to 1350kg.

Also, anyone remember the "GR86 test mule" with the Lexus spindle grille?

 

[internalaudit]

The slower Toyota/Lexus adapts to BEV, the better for most car enthusiasts haha. BEVs are too heavy at the current state.

 

[ssun30]

I think I could piece together the recent BEV story the same way I came up with the GA-L cancellation theory, but I wouldn't be sharing it until it's proven with enough evidence. I'll just have to be patient.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Best Car has been striking out the last few months, and this has to be another one. Next gen ~2027? GR 86 being based on a passenger car platform from 2013 that weighs 1k lbs more than the current one (and was never optimized for hybrid powertrains)?

Definitely no.

Scaleable architectures work less effectively on sports cars because every inch of wheelbase or change in weight distribution significantly impacts suspension tuning and performance behavior. It would be impossible to create a platform that could serve GR 86, Supra and the GT3 concept because their use cases are drastically different.

GR 86 = 4 cyl
Supra = 6 cyl
GT3 = 8 cyl
Some with hybrids, some with PHEVs, some without.

The use cases are just too different to be scaled easily with good results. Codeveloping a Supra with something like an RC? Sure, it works! Engineering the GT3 concept to work as a Lexus product ("LFR?") and the next gen Supra if it moves upmarket? Yep! GT3 concept to GR 86 and everything in between? No.

On unibody pedestrian cars like RAV4, Sienna or Crown, it's easier to correct platform variations with AWD, suspension tuning or packaging, but it's just not so with sports cars that are more precise and less forgiving. This is exactly why Toyota has partnered with Subaru and BMW instead of creating their own platform - if they could have scaled it, they could have probably made the business case on their own.

It could be possible that Toyota is putting a lot of investment into this one and have this platform have a vast bandwidth like the TNGA-K platform. Think BMW with CLAR.

 

[spwolf]

Is there a sales quota in China or EU where a minimum of BEVs have to be sold alongside other vehicles? I think without a quota, Toyota will drag its feet for the time being, even if it means loss of sales.

Reason they can not drag their feet and are re-evaluating whole half arsed strategy is because EVs are selling faster than they expected.

BEVs alone in Western Europe are approaching 20% of total sales, and this at quite high at price range, as cheap evs dont exist yet.

So if they are uncompetitive they will lose a lot of money, and soon. New dedicated platform for next gen, sooner, makes a lot of sense if it saves them billions.

All of this takes years to develop and change. So it is not about 2022 or 2023 or even 2024.

 

[Levi]

Reason they can not drag their feet and are re-evaluating whole half arsed strategy is because EVs are selling faster than they expected.

BEVs alone in Western Europe are approaching 20% of total sales, and this at quite high at price range, as cheap evs dont exist yet.

So if they are uncompetitive they will lose a lot of money, and soon. New dedicated platform for next gen, sooner, makes a lot of sense if it saves them billions.

All of this takes years to develop and change. So it is not about 2022 or 2023 or even 2024.

The need to have competitive BEVs now is even more important than before. With a market projected to grow till 100% till 2035, there is time, but with a market that will stagnate soon in worst case and in best case significantly reduce growth speed, there is no time, and who is not in that market (that is in the growth phase) will just lose that market and hardly regain it back, given the slower growth rate.

 

[spwolf]

there was another article about how they plan to increase production of BZ4x by 2025 "tenfold" or more... but then the number is around 190k in 2025, which is not a lot at all, considering that Rav4 sells almost a million units per year.

Probably the change is plans is not by 10x but rather 30-40% compared to last year.

I am sure their European dealers are demanding a lot of these changes as Europe is becoming very BEV oriented, again especially at these price ranges.

Corolla Cross FWD Hybrid with top equipment is 45k in Germany now and BZ4X with base is 48k, probably actually more equipment, Rav4 Hybrid FWD is 53k with mid equipment.

As we can see, taxing favors BEVs even now, more so will be in the future, above is without $3k tax incentive for BZ4X.

I dont think they are worried about competitiveness too much when it comes to everything else but the cost. Cost is their problem, and the way new just for BEV platform enables synergies that Tesla does, like incoporating 30 cpus into 1, single casting for front and back frames, just overall optimizations you can do if you are focused.

 

[internalaudit]

I think it has more to do with software coding the the number of CPUs when redundancy may be paramount. Sure 1 vs 30 is cheaper but maybe 5 vs 30 is better? I have no clue though

As Electric Car Makers Ante Up Billions, Software Is Ace in the Hole

As Electric Car Makers Ante Up Billions, Software Is Ace in the Hole

Coders set to cash in

spectrum.ieee.org

 

[bogglo]

Question for people with insider knowledge in your opinion/knowledge which car will be relaunching the full on F.

 

[spwolf]

I think it has more to do with software coding the the number of CPUs when redundancy may be paramount. Sure 1 vs 30 is cheaper but maybe 5 vs 30 is better? I have no clue though

As Electric Car Makers Ante Up Billions, Software Is Ace in the Hole

As Electric Car Makers Ante Up Billions, Software Is Ace in the Hole

Coders set to cash in

spectrum.ieee.org

it is not just 1, but you get the point. Problem why nobody did it before was because they buy these parts from all these different suppliers that dont work with each other, so it is not all integrated together. Now they are all scrambling to do it but having very hard time at it.

Tesla started from 0 so they built up fully integrated system, and this is why they are able to update whole car via software and add new features all the time, but also lower the cost.

Pretty much everything Tesla does is kaizen based, probably a lot like what TMC used to do in 80's, and what they are coming back to these days.