internalaudit

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I think there is a drastic language/culture barrier with what Japanese corporations say and what they mean versus what western "journalists" hear.
Most likely.

"The four sources declined to be identified because the plans have not been made public."
 

Gor134

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I think there is a drastic language/culture barrier with what Japanese corporations say and what they mean versus what western "journalists" hear.
I agree, I've noticed a ton of weird mistranslations from past articles that don't even convey what the original message was. Similar I've noticed happens with German interviews covered by US media.
 

Will1991

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But this time I don't think they're that far from truth...

Just take a look to the UX300e, bZ4X and RZ450e:
1) More expensive than the competition
2) Fast charging takes longer than competition
3) Less power than competition
4) Less range than competition

If we compared them to Tesla... It's even worse...
 

internalaudit

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But this time I don't think they're that far from truth...

Just take a look to the UX300e, bZ4X and RZ450e:
1) More expensive than the competition
2) Fast charging takes longer than competition
3) Less power than competition
4) Less range than competition

If we compared them to Tesla... It's even worse...
And Tesla just did about 5-10% price reduction in China.

Demand for vehicles, no matter the propulsion system, isn't inelastic.
 

CRSKTN

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But this time I don't think they're that far from truth...

Just take a look to the UX300e, bZ4X and RZ450e:
1) More expensive than the competition
2) Fast charging takes longer than competition
3) Less power than competition
4) Less range than competition

If we compared them to Tesla... It's even worse...
 

Will1991

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This facelift further solidifies what I'm saying... They kept CHAdeMo fast charging for Europe!
They only solve one issue, all the others seems to remain...

Look at Mercedes, the EQA is so much better and cheaper...
Look at BMW, the iX1 is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Volvo, the XC40 Recharge is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Tesla, they changed to CCS2 in Europe and gave costumers a solution to retrofit older cars... I don't like Tesla as a car or a brand but they're definitely doing a lot of things right on the BEV powertrain.
 

internalaudit

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This facelift further solidifies what I'm saying... They kept CHAdeMo fast charging for Europe!
They only solve one issue, all the others seems to remain...

Look at Mercedes, the EQA is so much better and cheaper...
Look at BMW, the iX1 is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Volvo, the XC40 Recharge is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Tesla, they changed to CCS2 in Europe and gave costumers a solution to retrofit older cars... I don't like Tesla as a car or a brand but they're definitely doing a lot of things right on the BEV powertrain.
How much business does Toyota have in the EU that in can afford to stand pat? When I was there in 2019, the only Toyota I saw available for rent was the CHR Hybrid. I was looking for passenger vehicles, not cargo van though.

It seems the only reason for Toyota to start churning compelling BEVs and pricing them competitievely is when there's a ZEV sales quote.

In Canada, so far, calls are for 20% of sales to come from ZEVs starting 2026.

Without sales quota, many automakers are going to drag their feet or just waive a white flag, albeit temporarily, like what Toyota is doing. When it is required to sell a % as BEVs, then you will see the big fire light up underneath Toyota's a$$.
 

Levi

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This facelift further solidifies what I'm saying... They kept CHAdeMo fast charging for Europe!
They only solve one issue, all the others seems to remain...

Look at Mercedes, the EQA is so much better and cheaper...
Look at BMW, the iX1 is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Volvo, the XC40 Recharge is so much better and cheaper...
Look at Tesla, they changed to CCS2 in Europe and gave costumers a solution to retrofit older cars... I don't like Tesla as a car or a brand but they're definitely doing a lot of things right on the BEV powertrain.
They are maybe all better than Lexus, but still all worse than eqivalent ICEVs for the time being. Good BEVs are not yet on the market. We are yet in the early stages of BEV development. Yes, Toyota's ICEV/BEV timeline is too extended, but the other Tesla/BEV fans timeline way is too short; according to them and the end of 2022 already 50% of cars were to be BEV, and 100% in 2025. Nonsense!
 

internalaudit

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They are maybe all better than Lexus, but still all worse than eqivalent ICEVs for the time being. Good BEVs are not yet on the market. We are yet in the early stages of BEV development. Yes, Toyota's ICEV/BEV timeline is too extended, but the other Tesla/BEV fans timeline way is too short; according to them and the end of 2022 already 50% of cars were to be BEV, and 100% in 2025. Nonsense!
I'm holding out for nicer BEVs haha.

'11 Accord and '12 CT200h will likely last most of the Teslas built this year and prior. I'm paying for gasoline. They will pay for repairs and parts, including battery eventually.

And I expect to replace my CT's HV battery in a few years. When I own a Macan EV, I would expect battery replacement around 11-12th year of ownership. No need to pretend batteries will not need replacing, especially for those who drive their cars for a long, long, time.
 

Levi

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I'm holding out for nicer BEVs haha.

'11 Accord and '12 CT200h will likely last most of the Teslas built this year and prior. I'm paying for gasoline. They will pay for repairs and parts, including battery eventually.
Same here. Before getting a BEV, there are so many other cars I wish to have and truly plan on having, GR86 is on the top of my list. Daily BEV can wait.
 

internalaudit

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Same here. Before getting a BEV, there are so many other cars I wish to have and truly plan on having, GR86 is on the top of my list. Daily BEV can wait.
Even if I have started a new job with 70km one-way commutes (three times a week), I won't be driving my wife's Macan EV in 2026/26 just to save on fuel. It will be an utter waste of an entry luxury BEV crossover.

I will take the CT200h and wait until such time I can get a much cheaper (maybe half price of Macan lol) daily driver BEV. No rush getting a second BEV when two vehicles that complement a BEV are alive and kicking.

Good choice on the GR86. If I only went out more often and wasn't a family man lol.
 

ssun30

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Time for them to eat the humble pie.

I think they are too used to not competing on specifications and features and relying almost entirely on their QDR reputation. That doesn't work on EVs. Time to get out of the vacuum and start designing products that are actually meant to compete.

The bZ4X and RZ450e are not even close to being competitive and are clearly not designed by people familiar with EVs. That comment on thermal management is especially on point, as the bZ4X has a very primitive and awkwardly implemented preconditioning I've seen.

e-TNGA being obsolete even before full lineup rollout is not unexpected either. The world has moved on and cell-to-body packaging is the next big thing, and that requires a new architecture to be designed.
 

internalaudit

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cell-to-body packaging sounds like second life for the entire BEV after the battery conks out. As a would-be BEV owner, not happy about the move to that though even with the current set up, battery replacements are hard to come by except for Tesla, where some reputable third party service providers have stepped up.
 

Levi

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Time for them to eat the humble pie.
I don't see them eating humble pie. There is a lot of manipulation and uncertainty. If TMC made mistakes, some others car makers just acted without knowledge/thinking; at the moment it looks like the right thing to do, but only time will tell.

Some points:
- BMW is still working and betting on hydrogen
- Tesla can collapse any time (Musk is partly to blame), and China can be key player in that collapse (geopolitical)
- ICEV/HEVs might take an unprecedented turn if the BEV transition in Western regions fails the way it is planned (or wishfully hoped), that is they might continue holding value, especially if new sales demand falls, but used car demand increases and fresh used car supply decreases
- upcoming Winter uncertainty with regards to electric supply shortage/blackouts and high fuel/gas prices


Strategists have a hard time planning and predicting, because there are a lot of indicators (market/economic/financial) that while factually true, contradict each other, interpreting them is now a lot of guessing/assumptions.

Seeing this chart, it is clear TMC has the revamp its BEV strategy:
1666306746078.jpg

On the other hand, if Telsa collapses in 5 months, all the planning is again different, at least to some extent. Chinese car makers remain a threat, Korea too, but there are some other hurdles that might grow and hurt, or it might be nothing.

I personally think, Toyota planned to progressively for BEV. But the environment is influenced (government incentives/green stuff climate change), so the growth is not "natural", is it influenced. I think Toyota will change to making 50/50 ICEV/BEV. They will make BEVs a good as they can, and ICEVs too, they simply are a different market for the time being.
 

internalaudit

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I don't know about Tesla collapsing in a year's time. Has enough cash to last a few years now though $10B of the cash was raised and not earned (in 2020).

I do know that auto loans at the current 6/7% vs 1-2% in the past years can make a huge difference in demand. With the higher borrowing costs, the interest alone dwarves most gasoline expenditures to the point that it makes most sense to kee the current ICEVs/HEVs if they're relatively reliable and maintenance-free.

In my case, gasoline expenditure likely in the $3,000-4,000 USD range as I've started driving a lot more but buying a new car to save on fuel (BEV, PHEV or another HEV) makes no sense to me since interest cost + depreciation alone will be at least double my gasoline expenditure.

Real estate declining, equities declining, bonds declining, all these don't make it conducive for all but the richest households to spend more money.