After more in-depth reading and talks with people working on BEVs directly I am having an increasingly realistic view of the industry and I have to say now I think more objectively.
I used to be one of the more enthusiast person about Tesla on this forum (even though I don't like how Elon runs the company). However, now I am more convinced their 'technological lead' is not a real one. And I used to be really dismissive of VAG's effort to fight Tesla head-on. For real-world BEV engineers I've read from, the E-Tron and Taycan are some of the most well-engineered BEVs to date, since they are matching Tesla's numerical specifications without cutting as many corners. They are particularly strong in thermal management and charging subsystem design. But by not cutting corners their cost and weight are heavily inflated.
2020 and 2021 will be a reality check for many carmakers riding the BEV hype curve. The 'numbers war' or 'arms race' on battery energy density, motor power density, and charging rate will wind down, because they could ignore the ugly side - profitability and dependability only for so long. It totally makes sense to make a pure numbers car when the hype around the new technology is very high. Some carmakers chose to not ride the hype curve. Safety, ease of operation, rate of depreciation, and consistency will be the major concern for consumers shopping for BEVs as they become more mainstream.
The 'trough of disillusionment' is already starting in China, which is ~12-18 months ahead of the world in BEV adoption rate. With the government pulling out subsidies and switching to building up hydrogen infrastructure, a LOT of the so-called 'internet car makers' (i.e. the likes of Tesla, Faraday Future, NIO, Xiaopeng etc) will financially struggle. BYD, the largest alternative energy vehicle maker in the world until 2019, lost 50% sales in just one year after subsidies were pulled out. And public tolerance on safety issue will reach a critical point. Just last year 75% of the battery manufacturers went bankrupt, and the fourth largest manufacturer, WTM, which at its peak valued at $30b, folded overnight
triggered by one battery fire. I still remember that Lexus executive who made that 'Pffff' comment (regarding govs stopping subsidizing BEV) and got ridiculed in pro-EV media (I mocked him too); he was just telling the inconvenient truth.
Now I'm not saying Tesla will die because I am still bullish about their ability to keep the hype up in USA and EU for another 18-24 months and eventually go into profitability if they brought Elon under control. But 2021-2027 will likely be the age of triopoly: VAG and TMC will join TSLA to become the 'big three' in BEV era. VAG and TMC will simply drown the segment with their money (the two combined has already planned 1.32 million capacity in the next 36 months in China alone) and their vertically integrated supply chain, and financially struggling legacy carmakers will have a very hard time catching up with those two in capital investment.