2018 LS Master Thread (Debuts 1/9/17 8:30am -2017 NAIAS)

[Carmaker1]

Can you possibly elaborate on this a little more? Just curious...

I meant that, while Toyoda oversees day to day activities, I wouldn't be surprised if his passionate gear head ambitions make him butt heads with his superior in Takeshi Uchiyamada, father of the Prius and that of the Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha board of directors.

At the end of the day Toyota is still business, not the house of Akio Toyoda's pet projects. There are times he comes off as annoyed in the rare interviews he gives on business matters. As if he's forced to do things he is indifferent about, save for the LFA and LC coupe.

Toyoda entered office in 2009, with a lot enemies at Toyota or as one could say, anti-Toyoda family forces. He might he cleaned house a little, but I recall some of these people are still there.

Katsuake Watanabe dislikes Toyoda-san and was responsible for the LS declining intially. The been-there-done-that MY2010 LS refresh was developed under Watanabe, while the face-saving MY2013 LS was done under Toyoda.

Some of the executive personnel at Toyota and the Japanese media, were wishing for him to fall flat on his face during the 2010 recall crisis, that it put him tears in one instance, that he was actually in a room full of Toyota USA personnel that were going support and protect him like he was trying to protect them. Corporate culture can become very messy, especially when nepotism and jealously is involved.

Truth is that, the board of directors and chairman of the board Uchiyamada might be the ones responsible for Toyota's feet dragging, not so much Toyoda himself. Such as the fact there are dated power trains and overall slow to react product planning. He does not have free reign over TMC/TJKK, like some people assume. I take it some other powerful Toyota executives, are still angry about the LFA program.

Both of you are circling around my pet theory of what happened with the next-generation LS -- I think the new S-Class was so revolutionary that Lexus decided it was better to delay the new LS than try to compete with what they had. In essence, the S-Class comes out and it was back to the drawing board for the next-gen LS.

Because of that, I really do think the new LS is going to be a shocking new development, something unexpected. If you take the release of the LC as an example of how Lexus is handling the concept-to-production phase, an LS built VERY CLOSE to the LF-FC concept would be jaw-dropping, with the potential to upset the S-Class dominance.

I am not sure that is quite how it happened, as the clothes slowly started coming off the W222 S-Class in the summer of 2012 and pretty much leaked in March 2013. By May 2013, it was fully revealed.

May 2012 W222 Spy Shots

March 18, 2013 W222 Spied Naked

The 5LS delay decisions had to have been made well in advance before anyone 100% knew what the Benz looked like in full. In hindsight, they plainly felt they were tired of redesigning parallel to the S-Class and then being blind-sided at reveal.

December 1997 W220 Spy Shots


The LS430 design pretty much established by December 1997, the same month that the W220 S-Class appeared in these spy shots. Last minute adjustments were made to the car by mid-1998 and allowed them another 2 years to work with knowledge of the new Benz. Toyota was also able to buy new W220s in late 1998, utilizing them as benchmarks until LS430 engineering sign-off in late 1999-early 2000.

1998 photo of XF30 (LS430) prototype


The 4LS by comparison, was designed to be like "1989 all over again" and it came very close to that, especially with the LWB and 6-figure LS600hL range topper. Unfortunately Toyota did not count on DaimlerChrysler putting out a quality and more competitive product in the W221. The fact that it was developed parallel, meant only the outgoing W220.5 was able to be used as a benchmark for the 4LS.

W221 Prototype - December 2002

Despite that, they were still a little privy to what was going into the W221 due in late 2005, especially with this leak above from December 2002. They only did not have access to a W221 example until 4LS development was coming to a close.

This time around Akio Toyoda was just not having that again and made the delay decision well before 2013.

Toyota had to have committed to the current model (MY2013+) in 2010, to ensure it would be ready for summer 2012 production. The question is, did they always intend to retain the XF40 III for 2-3 more years (2014-15) or 5 years (2017-18)?

How long has the GA-L platform been in development is another question? The LC may be debuting the architecture, but it is very likely it was developed with the 5LS in mind. Somehow the LS having its own delays reversed the launch timetable.

The concept-to-production timeline isn't quite as identical as with the LC, as unlike the LF-LC, the LF-FC was already based on an existing production design the same way that the LF-NX was. The LF-LC was done from scratch. The real issue with the LF-FC and LF-NX, is that both were created to be more eye-catching than their production counterparts. The LF-LC had the benefit of getting engineering attention in the aftermath, which steadily streamlined it into the LC.

Point is, Lexus could not reverse the final design of the LS to incorporate cues from the LF-FC, being that the design was frozen long ago. There are some extremities the LF-FC has, that are likely not present on the production car.

I swear, for a moment I thought you could lease a S550 in the USA for $95 a month.

Well maybe that's why they sell so many. J.K.

Thank you for sharing, @Carmaker1 ! I can certainly get down with that front end.

I hope the real car has a little more curvature on the side flanks, but this is certainly promising overall.

You're welcome! I am not confident for my own reasons, this is 100% the final car. There is some detailing that is missing, that I am confident will be on the production car due to some past coincidences. Also, I don't want it to be too slab-sided again.

Thanks a lot Carmaker1 really appreciate the time I sure it took for you to find this and get it. Excited for a 2017 launch date and I agree it doesn't surprise me that they are keeping this extremely secretive. We're getting closer and closer to a new LS!

You're welcome, I was a little sad it wasn't a spy shot. If a company doesn't want a future product to be seen, they can avoid that very well. Maybe this summer one will see shots, as the current LS was spotted 10 months before production started in mid-2006.

 

[CIF]

On the topic of Akio Toyoda's power in the company, truly a fascinating discussion I have followed many years. I will only briefly make some mentions here. The "Western style", anti-Toyoda family, bean counter, big company-disease type of executives that took over Toyota in the late 1990s to mid 2000s did a fair amount of damage. Not all of them are gone now, but most are. The few remaining have what seem to be senior roles, but for various reasons, they are mostly ceremonial roles.

Akio Toyoda's father, Shoichiro Toyoda, despite being only honorary chairman since the late 1990s, has and continues to hold great power in the company. The fact of the matter is, the Toyoda family always had and still holds great power over the company, despite some controversial efforts to take away that power from the late 1990s to mid 2000s. A few years before Akio Toyoda even became president, Shoichiro Toyoda identified, singled out, and scolded many of these bean counter type executives that had gone against Toyota's legendary corporate culture. Watanabe was one of those specifically scolded by Shoichiro Toyoda. Much of that damage has now been slowly reversed. Some executives that caused damage happened to be high-ranking officials, who can't simply be fired without a very strong reason. So a few of them remain in roles in the company I believe to be ceremonial.

No Akio Toyoda does not have total and supreme control of the company; it's far too big. However his father Shoichiro Toyoda, a living legend in the company, and the Toyoda family as a whole have re-established great influence over the company as a whole. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence of this from the last few years. Recalls for the tiniest problems, lengthening of model cycles, increased long-term reliability scores back to industry-leading levels, much richer interior materials being used and improved craftsmanship, and the abandonment of previous bean counter policies of being #1 worldwide by volume, and chasing sales, market-share, and opening new plants at very rapid rates. Akio Toyoda also has a personal hand testing all new models, and calling for changes/delays if needed. That shows any bean counters still left in the company have little sway.

My only personal concern with Akio Toyoda is his strong focus on performance and passionate styling, but I remain hopeful he won't diverge much from core Toyota and Lexus strong points, even while continuing his performance and passion focus. I have no problem with his focus as long as it doesn't detract from core strong points of the company's products.

 

[Carmaker1]

Looks very nice, but I would expect the actual LS to be longer, and the rear looks a bit like the LS. And the non-F Sport wouldn't have the spindle grille. Some chrome horizontal lines on the grille would look really grand and luxurious for an S-Class competitor. I'm surprised the front looks so well but together for a rendering. Usually, Lexus renderings are too crazy looking and don't look fit for production. This looks beautiful. And I swear, if the new LS doesn't end up looking this good or even better, Lexus is going to HAVE to hire the MagX render artist! Oh, and the 467 horsepower 5.0L V8 might be a little too much for the LS. Maybe the IS F engine would be enough as it might as well be a detuned version GS F and RC F engine to 416 horsepower!

It is just a rendering, so the length won't be taken into account very well in a 3/4 shot. All Lexus models (except IS-C) already have the Spindle Grille, were you referring to the mesh grille instead? I think as seen with the LC500 and LC500h, there's a chance the horizontal slats are out. The thing about Lexus is that the actual models always looks better than the rendering.

I have to disagree in terms of powertrain, as the updated 467 horsepower 2UR-GSE engine is just what is needed, especially against MB's new M176 TTV8 going into the S-Class facelift next year (current M278 TTV8 puts out 449 hp) and BMW's N63 TTV8 (440). Not to mention a new bi-turbo inline-6 S-Class, which might eclipse the TTV6 LS.

The Genesis G90 already has 429 to boot. The older IS-F 2UR-GSE is not fit for this application, which is why no model uses it currently. Like the S500 sedan/coupe, both the LS/LC will share the same naturally aspirated 5.0L V8 engine, hopefully being replaced by MY2020 with a FI V8 unit.

@Carmaker1 the Android Google Translate App has a feature that lets you take a picture of what you want to translate, and it shows the translation right on the image! I noticed you've been trying to translate many of these Japanese rumors, so I thought this might help.

BTW, thank you so much for that suggestion. I seriously had no idea about this until you told me! I was astounded by that. It's not fool-proof with this tricky photo, but still helpful.

Awesome, you got a hold of the Mag X copy itself, much appreciated!

So it looks like they were privy to a rendering or the real production model itself, and they made a sketch based on that. Going by their words though, "the front mask of LS revealed", I think they mostly got a look at the front end. The sides, window line, and rear quarters may be simply extrapolations and guesses at this point. That front end though looks pretty good, as long as that's an F-Sport model. It looks a bit too sporty for a base LS model.

It's confirmed now that Toyota is hiding the new LS in extreme secrecy, much to the dismay of all of us here who have discussed ad nauseum how old the current LS is, and how the almost complete lack of news regarding the new LS is really disappointing.

The May 2017 date confirmation is a great sign though! I don't care what anyone else says, whether here on TLE, or otherwise. I refuse to believe that the LS has been delayed further beyond that. If that somehow turned out as the case, then to me that would indicate Lexus has lost their way. I just can't see Lexus in that situation, so hopefully that never occurs.

Well, have to thank you for confirming my suspicions that they had some new info on it. We had come across the words Rekusasu LS at the same time, definitely figuring it was out of the ordinary and that Mag X would only concern themselves with solely future product. The language and residency barrier did not make it easy.

You pretty much got it in terms of the angling and why the rendering appears as it does. I must say however, I know believe that this isn't entirely it.

There are some things missing, that May 2017 date to insider information from 2014 and what magically also showed up on the LF-FC as a year afterward.

There was this past rendering, that despite being so ugly, had a unusual degree of accuracy regarding the fuel cell and some design cues seen on the concept.

This rendering from Best Car was made just after the LF-FC clay model was built on December 3, 2014. Hmm... is it possible this rendering was NOT based on the 5LS, but rather that of the LF-FC clay model? Poor imagination, with excellent hints resulted in that rendering.


I believe we will see something at least 9-10 months before production starts. The AL20 RX was caught testing 2 years before production started as a AL10 mule. It was mysteriously hidden all of 2014, when Mag X released both this leak of the front end and rendering in late December. Shortly after that, we caught a prototype in early January. Production of that started in September 2015.

Production of 4RX parts might have started in August 2015, with actual assembly following in September.

The current LS was first spotted in its final body in September 2005. The current IS was running Torrance from August 2012, just 4-5 months before its debut. If this car stays on schedule, we should see something by August or September in the form of spy shots.

The thing about the May 2017, is that it concerns JDM. I am confident these dates refer to production for some reason, as the NX was labeled in 2012 by Mag X to start production in July 2014. The real product did indeed enter production about that time.

Clearly there's a pattern with these dates, regarding production. The LC goes into production in December for March 2017 launch date. The LS has been targeted for the summer of 2017, meaning that could point to an August-September 2017 launch window, with May-June SOP.

If they cannot do that and somehow go beyond MY2018, they better have developed a refresh the current car for MY2017/2017.5 in the interim. You just cannot keep a car unchanged for more than 5 years, visual updates are required after 3-4 years, if needed to last more than one year. Infiniti updated the QX70, since the new model isn't due until 2018 and it was last updated in late 2011.

GREAT news for us #lexusheads,

Interesting name Osi, we very much have similar background.

 

[Carmaker1]

I hope you're right but two models (let alone flagships) unveiled at the same time would concentrate interest and getting people in the showrooms in one period of time versus spread out in a more sustainable consistent manner if the LS were to be available for sale later in 2017.

The LS is not going to be on sale next May in a Lexus showroom. That date refers to the JDM Lexus network taking customer orders or start of MY2018 production for the car. Being such a juggernaut, the LC is already requiring about 3 months lead time for production prior to March launch.

I can imagine the same for the 5LS, which is likely going to start rolling off Tahara as early as June-July, for a variable period of July-October 2017 for market launch. What I believe, is that production of 5LS parts will begin in May, followed by the first examples in June and then customer deliveries in July-August.

Apply that theory adding two months, if production start runs as late as July 2017. Typically BMW redesigns start-up production 3 months ahead of market launch, ditto for MB. Lexus has taken this approach with LC due to various factors, so I would expect 2.5 to 3 months lead time for the LS to go from production to US and UK showrooms.

Aside from that, naturally this car would be unveiled in Detroit regardless. Summer 2017 has been reported by one reputable American source and some Australian sources, with the latter noting they will get the car in 2018 after 2017 global launch. The only way it will not be unveiled at Detroit, is if indeed they have opted for a private event whenever (like in 1994 with '95 LS), pushed it back to a Q1 2018 mid-year release, or stupidly cram it in as a 2019 model with a bevy of new cars due in 2018-19 (ES, GS, UX, IS, and LX)

Yes valid point, however as has been eloquently pointed out here on the TLE forums, the problem with this is delaying the LS any further pushes it closer to other coming redesigns in 2018. The next-gen LS has long been overdue, and the current LS generation has had an extremely long model cycle. So Lexus at this point has no choice. They need to release the car as soon as it's ready. The current generation debuted for production in 2006. Assuming the 5LS goes on sale in 2017 as currently predicted, that would be a model cycle of 11 years for the 4LS, which is just absurd. There is nobody to blame here but Lexus themselves for such a ridiculously long model cycle for the 4LS.

I'm not against them spreading out the LS launch over a couple of months. But IMHO it has to remain a 2017 debut at most, as 2018 will be beyond absurd as already discussed ad naseum here on the forums.

What boggles the mind here is the fast-track approach to the production LC. Lexus can easily spread out or change the timing of the LC launch. I don't understand why there is a need for any rush for the production LC. IMHO the next LS should be the top priority to get to production as soon as they can, not the LC.

Exactly, I co-sign this. It is not going on sale next spring, my goodness no. Mag X dates line-up with start of assembly or when Japanese order banks open. I would hope this car doesn't reach 12 years old, as no Lexus model has reached the 10-year mark ever. Not even the LX (well, yet). The 5LS probably has some complex tech that is not directly shared with the LC and being larger in size as well, probably means more ground to cover. As you said though, it is clear that fast-tracking the LC is factor in all this.

To be honest, the doors (retained from original) on the current LS were DESIGNED in 2003! I guess these things concern me as a product development/design engineer, as I work on products that are 3-4 years out (in advance of sign-off) and they are seriously old news to me when they go on sale and then get a 7-8 life-cycle on top of that (yikes!).

I just saw that the media are finally spotting the X152 F-Type facelift in testing, not even noticing them all this time. I let out a tidbit on that back in 2014, that a 2018 F-Type facelift was in development (got reprimanded). It is debilitating, when MY2017 Jaguars feel like yesterday's news and the crown jewel X360 keeps getting delayed and reaching a decade in progress.

If you guys think you're mad about the LS, just think about Jag and LR folks with the next XJ. I obviously know about that one very well, but not pleased with recent setbacks and major changes to the X360 programme. I am more angry about the L660 Defender replacement, as that would've been due this year and replace my Evoque as a DD. Looks lovely though (I say this a Defender 90 owner).

Everyone better watch out for the next XJ, as that will change everything about Jaguar. I can personally attest to that, even with the setbacks. The current XJ is a heavy rework of the previous generation &retro& design, but by comparison is only 6 years old and not 10 years old.

Unfortunately, anyone in my position at Lexus, doesn't speak English and is equally loyal to the point of not sharing anything nor risking prosecution. I prefer to comment on the W222 facelift and the 5LS, as I won't get into serious legal trouble for that of course.

I think LC goes into production later this year and will be on sale in showrooms approx Jan/Feb of 2017.

If LS goes into production around Feb/March, that would have it in showrooms approx May 2017.

Lexus also has to squeeze in RC refresh, NX refresh and new RX L all in 2017 as 2018 models. Possible CT redesign too. I assume that we might get RX L in mid-2017 and the RC and NX refreshes later in the year as 2018 models.

The May 2017 date is not for model launch. I had said that by example, Mag X seems to post dates that end up turning out to be start of production or first JDM customer orders. Unlike in the States, JDM customers primarily order their cars and then they are delivered later on. They usually don't buy a vehicle from lot inventory.

Mag X said July 2014 for the NX, August 2014 for the RC, August 2015 for the RX, and both November 2016 and January 2017 for the LC.

Considering we heard November 2016 for the LC, for a late January 2017 launch, then upon announcement at NAIAS, they stated it would be December 2016 SOP for February 2017 launch. They quickly changed the latter to March 2017.

I figured the LS will go into production around May/June 2017, likely showing up in August or September 2017 as a MY2018.

With a high production-to-showroom lead time, like the 1990 LS400 had from May-September 1989, production could start as late as July 2017 for an October 2017 launch. That right there would still ensure a January debut at NAIAS 2017, even if one has to wait 9 months take it home.

That is 7 months of space between the LC and LS, as well as roughly 12-15 months ahead of the 2019 GS.

I am confident, the IS will be redesigned in late 2019. I don't see them refreshing it again in late 2018 (like MY2011). They want to move the GS, RC, and IS to GA-L ASAP .

I wouldn't be surprised if the RC gets a 5 year life-cycle and was redesigned in tandem with the IS, with a staggered released in early 2020 as the XC20 MY2021 RC250t, RC300t, and RC-F.

The UX will likely be launched in 2018, before the next ES (fall 2018) and GS (late 2018).

 

[Carmaker1]

Akio Toyoda said in LC reveal it will be in sale in spring 2017, that's mean somewhere between April and June .

And LS many Japanese sources till now agreed in that, the reveal will be in May 2017!! That's just reveal !!!

And if we look at the time that LC will take to be in sale, its impossible for the all-new LS to be in showrooms any day before January 2018, and that makes possibility to be 2019 model year if its will be in sale in June 2018.

Long time to wait bro. but its worth it, i'm pretty sure it will be amazing.

That is not correct, I disagree. First off, I highly doubt they are going to debut a saloon more than a year before it can go on sale. Toyoda was referring to Feb-March, especially now that the car has just about started its 6 month pilot production, then series production will take over. In January 2017, the first customer cars will be built for March release.

May 2017 is also not the LS reveal, that is when Lexus Japan customer ordering or Tahara production starts. It will be revealed in January or in New York, which the latter is unlikely. Mag X is extremely credible with these dates, except for some past SC500 estimates (I'll excuse them). There is a reason why I have gone to great lengths to discuss all of this, which is to dispel misconceptions like these.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. There is no major global auto show after New York, which is in April, until Tokyo in October or LA in November. Detroit and LA are the two largest shows for media, with LA in November and Detroit in January of the following year.

My personal opinion is that the new LS will debut at NAIAS in Detroit in 2017 as a 2018 model, and be in showrooms the summer after that.

The worst thing that can happen right is for Lexus to announce they will reveal it at Tokyo 2017 as a MY2019, timed 2 year after the LF-FC debut. I don't believe that will happen, it would be the largest disappointment ever. Gotta be Detroit. I remember how just right in the middle of Detroit 2015, it was quietly announced that the LC would be revealed at 2016 NAIAS. It came true.

The only reason the 4RX was shown at NYIAS, was for marketing purposes (GS-F, NY sales base) and to better time the debut with its November-Dec release. Showing a non-halo product 11 months early, would be a big no-no. I consider the LC500 more of a flagship than halo, but it can hold its own compared to some sedan redesign.

I was just about to ask about when they would reveal it because they want it at an auto show obviously. So more than likely we will see it here in November (prolly too early for Lexus but not for us) or Detriot. But would they want to do it at home for them? Is the LS big there?

It will have to be Detroit. Just think of all references they can directly make to NAIAS 1989, 2000 (LS430), and 2006 (LS460). "It was 28 years ago, we presented to you the Lexus brand with our LS400... Today we give you, the all-new 2018 Lexus LS..." Doing it in LA is not going to do it for them.

The most we might get are spy shots or behind the scenes look at camouflaged prototypes being tested by embargoed journalists (likely not happening, to raise shock value) in late 2016 (a la 3IS).

A Q3 2017 (Jul, Aug, Sept) release makes sense, since production takes many weeks.

Great info, carmaker1!

Not sure how you got the MagX but this is the place if I am looking to buy or take a peek at Japanese car magazines, including Mag X.

http://www.as-books.jp/books/info.php?no=NMX20160426

For the article, I found the sub-heading interesting -- it says mirror less is within a year or so but it is not mentioned at all in the entire article. Probably some predictions from the journalist. Well, it is a Scoop magazine. (but some pictures in the past reveal the actual stuff before the rest of the world has it. Example was the dashboard in the latest Civic. )

Thanks, Andy! Excellent point about their credibility, but there are some elements that confuse me. Best Car magazine made a rendering in late 2014, that turned to be very similar to the front end of the LF-FC concept. Considering how long in advance that was, Best Car magazine had a inside info on either production car or LF-FC design.

Between the LF-FC, this Mag X rendering, and the Best Car rendering from December 2014, I am concerned as why the L-shaped character line is now gone. Unless, some cues were omitted from the production model (impossible if the design was frozen), it should be on the actual car.

 

[Carmaker1]

Detroit is overall, the biggest show from a media standpoint. LA is right behind it, but doesn't generate as much media/buzz, and is more of an auto show season kickoff party.

LA hosts a lot of cars that couldn't wait for a fall announcement and were shown in photos/online over the spring/summer/early fall, appearing for the first time on a show table in LA.

Detroit tends to host a lot of first-ever overall global debuts, thus my money is on Detroit for LS.

I agree, as I said to James before, NAIAS is historical for Lexus, especially with the LS. The only redesign not debuted there, was the 1995 LS400, which was launched too late in 1994 to be shown during the early internet age. It later made its formal auto show debut in January 1995 after going on sale in November 1994. All subsequent redesigns have been presented in Detroit.

you forgot the 2018 next generation GS

The 2018 GS will still be the current updated version of the L10 GS. The next GS is due in Q4 2018 in Japan and circa January 2019 elsewhere. I believe James is referring to what will be in Lexus showrooms through the end of April 2018, not so much anything beyond that.

I heard few months ago either from Mr. Templin or someone else from Lexus that LS delay is probably caused by its high technological improvement compared to the current market. Not sure though. I also heard an information that LS might be first luxury car without rearview mirrors as the concept has. Everything is possible

Neverthelss lets hope that new LS will fully represent what Lexus has really become and will in close future which will dismiss most of the doubts of some people that it is just more expensive Toyota.

That is definitely the reason.

The 5th gen LS should have been released at 2012. Which means that by 2011 we should had seen the prototype Lexus "had to ditch, because of the superior competition". If I recall correctly, there wasn't any Lexus LS concept at that time, or even later until the hydrogen LF-FC we all know. Therefore we must assume that Lexus had seen the S-class prototype two years before its public first show. How is this even possible?

I don't see how Lexus would have any idea what was happening by that time. By 2009 instead, Toyota had showed their intention to go fuel cell. They even touted the highlander FCHV-adv getting over 400 miles on a tank of hydrogen. But it would be too early to introduce a platform able to carry the FC power train at 2012. At final, Toyota had to accomplish their next target. Many people asked what Prius meant. Toyota replied "to go before".When Mirai released some searched the Japanese dictionaries and found it meant "Future". I believe the LF-FC concept packages a brand new Fuel cell power train (an evolution from Mirai "Future" power train).

It should've been redesigned in 2012 based on past life-cycles, but I disagreed with that back in early 2012, without the knowledge it was merely getting another facelift.

The 5th generation I wanted in either 2013 or 2014 as a 2014/2015 model year redesign. So that they'd have at least 4-5 years to develop something sustainable from 2009-13/14.

The minute I saw a facelift was brought into the equation upon reveal in 2012, I expected no more than 2-3 additional years. When I heard 2016, it was an annoying pill to swallow, but accepted it.

When came across mule spy shots last May, I quickly realised how far out the car truly was and prepared myself to wait until early 2017.

I really do not understand what you mean, but will say this. I have come to the conclusion, that the recall crisis is mostly responsible for the delays. Akio Toyoda pushed this car back, opting to not cancel the L10 GS program and put the LFA into production.

To develop that 2013 model year facelift, they needed to reach a design freeze 18 months prior to production start in summer 2012. I believe the MY2013 LS facelift was ordered in the spring of 2010. Between 2008 and late 2009, there were surely developments between made on a 5th generation LS.

After Akio Toyoda taking office in the summer of 2009, he was dealing with several crisis. The over-budget LFA, economic collapse, and then eventually the recall crisis. Models started being cancelled or back-burned between 2009 and 2010. The 5LS was one of those cars, now that I realise it.

Plus, they likely wanted to properly benchmark the S-Class this time around, unlike in 2005-06 when they were blindsided by the improvements of the W221 S-Class and had to design the current model around the inferior W220 S-Class.

With the MY13 facelift in development in 2010, the March 2011 disasters later occurred. The design for that was already finished by March 2011, but anything significant was affected.

When the LF-LC became a factor between late 2011 and early 2013, I can imagine more setbacks occurred. The GA-L was already in development since 2011, as by early Inertia Spec mules started being built.

Mercedes-Benz finished designing the current S-Class in 2009, but nobody saw that car until December 2010 testing in heavy camouflage and then these leaked scale models in 2011. The S-Class final design was pretty much given away by this 3rd party artist in 2012, Wildspeed who is unusually gifted and has to have some serious insider connections at different OEMs with his mysterious (sneaky) accuracy.

Early 2009 photo of W222 Clay Modeling



W222 Design Process 2009



First W222 Mule February 2010


First W222 Prototype Spied - December 2010



W222 Scale Colour Models - Oct. 19, 2010
This photo was hidden in plain sight until May 2011. Maybe only the public missed this and Lexus quietly saw these months before May 2011.



Dead accurate W222 rendering by Wildspeed - May 2012


Lexus stocked up on W222 S-Classes at the Toyota Technical Centre Aichi HQ during 2013-14. The 5LS final design was set in 2014. Toyota's goal is to attack the mid-range S-Class (S300, S500) during mid-cycle, where Mercedes cannot respond effectively until the redesign in 2020-21.

 

[Carmaker1]

what about new GS too? And GX.... and LX. And CX.

It is never ending

With LC and CX, Lexus will have enough models to have MMC or FMC every 3-4 months.... CT, ES, IS, GS, LS, LC and CX, NX, RX, RX-L, GX, LX.

LC was sped up simply because it is halo vehicle for the brand. It is marketing, not money maker. So sooner it comes out, it benefits Lexus more.

As to the LS, I am not so sure how important it is right now, but as carmaker1 mentioned they have to release it since design will become dated otherwise. It would benefit Lexus more if LS was released at the time when sedans are purchased more (2019?) but again, design should have been finished a while ago so thats not possible.

The GS, GX, and LX are not relevant to the 2017 calendar year. I cannot speak for the GX entirely. There is no CX, may you are referring to UX? I can imagine Mazda has made the CX trademark an issue.

The current LS cannot continue in its current form without some serious changes. It was facelifted 4 years ago. Your suggestion of keeping it till 2019, would require another update to the current version and that would need to launch this year or early next year. Not to mention, a facelift also requires lead time. No one has heard about another LS facelift, which is only needed, if the car isn't replaced by early 2018.

Otherwise, the next LS needs to be released by the end of next year and unveiled no later than April 2017. As someone that works in this industry, I may not be a marketer, but I know a good deal about the risks of product (design) obsolescence.

That is what happened to Mercedes-Benz 25 years ago. They kept taking their sweet time with developing a new flagship, signed off its design in late 1986 (freeze in 1987) and then thought they could pawn it off as brand-new in the summer of 1991 to German buyers.

Tastes clearly had changed and MB kept softening its design, facelift-to-facelift. All this came after the 11 1/2 year life-cycle of its predecessor, the W126.

Do you see a coincidence here? 11-year old flagship, long delayed successor.

The fact that anyone was shown the car already 2 years ago, especially Alain Uyettenhoven, who saw not only the LC500 in summer of 2014, but the 5LS as well and made some comments based on that, means it was designed already.

Usually you may want to finish a new body design 18-24 months in advance on regular car, but on something like this, 36 months may suffice, not to mention 42 months. The fact that a prototype was already built in late 2014, sounds like a design freeze occurred months earlier and that the actual design might have been established as early as 2013, for a car due in 2017. This would not be surprising in this segment.

Audi approved the final D5 A8 design in February 2014, BMW the new G11 as early as late 2011, and MB the W222 in 2009 and MY2018 facelift in early 2015. The Genesis G90, had a design approval in 2013.

I am not liberty to publicly discuss JLR development timelines on future products, so I sadly cannot talk about the XJ. I can tell you that the current XJ design was approved in November 2006 and frozen in spring 2008, before launching in May 2010.

The next model is ground-up, so it requires much more time.

Featured by AutoSpies and not one iota of credit given
http://www.autospies.com/news/RENDE...e-All-New-Lexus-LS-Is-It-A-STUD-or-DUD-88320/

I was quick to notice that and decided to make some commentary there. You know that is very typical of them of course. At the end of day, I am a car enthusiast. I have no concrete favourites nor allow myself to be too biased, thus I do not obsess over JLR.

Too many forums or comment sections are just full of poison.

Carmaker1 was that you on the post on the other site making all those comments with the same tag? If so props for going up against the world! Most of those comments hated everything about Lexus it seemed (I think someone said a Buick was better...umm how?) anyone is that was you big props!

Well, thank you. Yes, that was me. I bought the page, for Auto Spies to lift from here and not even bother crediting their source. So, I took the liberty to point that out and also address some individuals, that often bash other brands with fallacious reasoning.

I cherish BMW, MB, Porsche, and Audi , but I detest the arrogance of many of their fans/enthusiasts to anything not German or Italian by extension. Between Jalopnik, Auto Spies, Auto Blog, and LLN, they are just cesspools.

The typical stupid comment like "xx-Brand needs to hire German or Italian designers" have no basis. Just plain tunnel vision.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I think we need to rename the site as "Lexus Enthusiast feat. @Carmaker1" after that. Great info dump!

And I'll apologize for forgetting about JLR in my earlier post - the XJ also plays in the LS/7-series price range with the V6, and goes into S-Class territory with the V8.

 

[Carmaker1]

Sorry everyone for my endless posts, especially in regards to TL;DR. I very much try and respond to everybody, but have been gone for a few days and had a lot to discuss.

As often is the case with Lexus concepts, the concept mostly takes design elements from the production model, not the other way around. It's a strong certainty the LF-FC concept's design is based off of the production 5LS, at least in terms of the exterior. Interior may be a different story. LC production interior turned out quite different from the LF-LC concept.

Also with this in mind, that means the production 5LS design was indeed already frozen by the end of 2014, likely even even by mid-2014, as you point out Carmaker1. One can only hope that the long time we've been waiting for the 5LS since then (and continuing into next year) is due to unprecedented testing. I am also now more confident than ever that an original idea for the 5LS, likely around 2010-2011, was scrapped at that time by Akio Toyoda, ideas were incorporated into the 2013 refresh, and Akio Toyoda sent the team back to the drawing board, having raised his bar of expectations. We'll never have 100% proof, but this all makes sense now in terms of timeline. The 2011 disaster simply delayed the process, as I think without it the current and final 5LS production design would have been finalized in 2013, if not for the disaster.

It's an unfortunate set of circumstances for 5LS development, but most of the blame ultimately still rests with Toyota for the unbearably long model cycle of the 4LS.

They should've at least issued minor refresh/upgrades for the 2016 model year, as life-cycles are not supposed to be 3+3+5. It should be 4+3 on a regular cycle or 4+2+2.

Problem is that in hindsight, did they know that the facelift would run 5 years or encountered a setback at a point of no return circa 2014?

When the XE30 IS was delayed in 2008, another facelift was issued for the XE20 IS for MY2011 after 2 years. They should have developed another LS refresh from 2013-14 to better tide it over.

Since the redesign arrive next year, they just bit the bullet and kept the car unchanged.

The LC interior is different, as Toyoda also wanted a driver's car interior and felt the LF-LC interior did not meet that. It is partly why I preferred the 500h interior over the 500.

The LF-FC interior looks more feasible in terms of hard points, unlike the LF-LC. LS interior won't be as outrageous but the general design theme will remain intact.

On the topic of Akio Toyoda's power in the company, truly a fascinating discussion I have followed many years. I will only briefly make some mentions here. The "Western style", anti-Toyoda family, bean counter, big company-disease type of executives that took over Toyota in the late 1990s to mid 2000s did a fair amount of damage. Not all of them are gone now, but most are. The few remaining have what seem to be senior roles, but for various reasons, they are mostly ceremonial roles.

Akio Toyoda's father, Shoichiro Toyoda, despite being only honorary chairman since the late 1990s, has and continues to hold great power in the company. The fact of the matter is, the Toyoda family always had and still holds great power over the company, despite some controversial efforts to take away that power from the late 1990s to mid 2000s. A few years before Akio Toyoda even became president, Shoichiro Toyoda identified, singled out, and scolded many of these bean counter type executives that had gone against Toyota's legendary corporate culture. Watanabe was one of those specifically scolded by Shoichiro Toyoda. Much of that damage has now been slowly reversed. Some executives that caused damage happened to be high-ranking officials, who can't simply be fired without a very strong reason. So a few of them remain in roles in the company I believe to be ceremonial.

No Akio Toyoda does not have total and supreme control of the company; it's far too big. However his father Shoichiro Toyoda, a living legend in the company, and the Toyoda family as a whole have re-established great influence over the company as a whole. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence of this from the last few years. Recalls for the tiniest problems, lengthening of model cycles, increased long-term reliability scores back to industry-leading levels, much richer interior materials being used and improved craftsmanship, and the abandonment of previous bean counter policies of being #1 worldwide by volume, and chasing sales, market-share, and opening new plants at very rapid rates. Akio Toyoda also has a personal hand testing all new models, and calling for changes/delays if needed. That shows any bean counters still left in the company have little sway.

My only personal concern with Akio Toyoda is his strong focus on performance and passionate styling, but I remain hopeful he won't diverge much from core Toyota and Lexus strong points, even while continuing his performance and passion focus. I have no problem with his focus as long as it doesn't detract from core strong points of the company's products.

Such a wonderful post, wow. I read about this and studied it over time. I interned for Toyota USA 6 years ago, but did not know as much back then as I do now. Their antics towards Toyoda were essentially workplace bullying, in hoping for him to fail due to their wrongdoings and open derision.

Shoichiro Toyoda's attempts in letting Akio "work his way up through the ranks" wasn't the best of ideas. I might discuss the rest of this in another thread.

 

[spwolf]

p.s. when new Toyota C-HR was shown, chief designed said that they were late to the market by 2 years because they decided to wait for new platform to be available since it would give them opportunity to raise the bar in driving performance and competitiveness. I would assume that same goes for LS and new GA-L.

 

[spwolf]

On the topic of Akio Toyoda's power in the company, truly a fascinating discussion I have followed many years. I will only briefly make some mentions here. The "Western style", anti-Toyoda family, bean counter, big company-disease type of executives that took over Toyota in the late 1990s to mid 2000s did a fair amount of damage. Not all of them are gone now, but most are. The few remaining have what seem to be senior roles, but for various reasons, they are mostly ceremonial roles.

Akio Toyoda's father, Shoichiro Toyoda, despite being only honorary chairman since the late 1990s, has and continues to hold great power in the company. The fact of the matter is, the Toyoda family always had and still holds great power over the company, despite some controversial efforts to take away that power from the late 1990s to mid 2000s. A few years before Akio Toyoda even became president, Shoichiro Toyoda identified, singled out, and scolded many of these bean counter type executives that had gone against Toyota's legendary corporate culture. Watanabe was one of those specifically scolded by Shoichiro Toyoda. Much of that damage has now been slowly reversed. Some executives that caused damage happened to be high-ranking officials, who can't simply be fired without a very strong reason. So a few of them remain in roles in the company I believe to be ceremonial.

No Akio Toyoda does not have total and supreme control of the company; it's far too big. However his father Shoichiro Toyoda, a living legend in the company, and the Toyoda family as a whole have re-established great influence over the company as a whole. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence of this from the last few years. Recalls for the tiniest problems, lengthening of model cycles, increased long-term reliability scores back to industry-leading levels, much richer interior materials being used and improved craftsmanship, and the abandonment of previous bean counter policies of being #1 worldwide by volume, and chasing sales, market-share, and opening new plants at very rapid rates. Akio Toyoda also has a personal hand testing all new models, and calling for changes/delays if needed. That shows any bean counters still left in the company have little sway.

My only personal concern with Akio Toyoda is his strong focus on performance and passionate styling, but I remain hopeful he won't diverge much from core Toyota and Lexus strong points, even while continuing his performance and passion focus. I have no problem with his focus as long as it doesn't detract from core strong points of the company's products.

Early 90's to mid 2000's were definitely the causes of most of Toyota issues later on in 2000's. Since my family owned Toyota dealer at the time, I pretty much knew every TSB ever issued for any Toyota sold at the time.

Issues were not with the plastics or build quality which actually improved as time progressed (people are too into quality perception and not actual quality), but with basics - such as ZZ, MZ, AD, KD, KR engines.

With Toyoda at helm, this has all be reset and they are allowed to practice Kaizen again, with frequent changes to the vehicles not only to fix an issue.

Toyota has always been a bean counter company (arent they all?), problem was with over-expansion in short amount of time. But you see people wanting the same thing again - new engines and transmissions on yearly basis with world leading numbers. It is not going to happen, they have learned their lesson.

When I read Autobild and see how for them 2003 Corolla hatchback is perfect car with high quality interior and Auris is econobox I can only laugh. That Corolla had so many small quality issues that it was not funny at all. Literally all of ours developed an inch wide gap between stereo and soft top of the dash, due to high temperatures. Fix was made in 2014 via TSB BUT when later facelift was made, it had same issue happen again.

Auris had cheaper looking and feeling plastics that liked to scratch a bit but damn thing stayed the same as it was made. Very little noise was made later on in the life of the vehicle while previous Corolla's (E12) were rattle traps. Not to mention ZZ engines vs ZR engine or infamous AD engine.

Of course, something to remember is that everyone else had issues as well, usually a lot more of them .

But it is easy to say that TMC's vehicles today are overall made a lot better than decade ago.

 

[Black Dynamite]

I'm not expecting the 2018 Lexus LS500 to hit the showrooms until Q4 of 2017.
I expect to see the production model debut at Detroit next January or at New York next April.
BD

 

[meth.ix]

New A8 prototype just spotted.

The certainty that the new A8 will have even more and better technology while Lexus is stuck with the 4LS just gives me shivers.

 

[Gecko]

That front end looks like the previous Toyota Highlander, but lets please keep THIS thread about the LS. If you'd like to make another thread in the Garage about the A8, please do so.

 

[mikeavelli]

Carmaker1 in 2016!!! I just finished reading every bit, amazing stuff!

 

[krew]

The 5th gen LS should have been released at 2012. Which means that by 2011 we should had seen the prototype Lexus "had to ditch, because of the superior competition". If I recall correctly, there wasn't any Lexus LS concept at that time, or even later until the hydrogen LF-FC we all know. Therefore we must assume that Lexus had seen the S-class prototype two years before its public first show. How is this even possible?

The 5LS delay decisions had to have been made well in advance before anyone 100% knew what the Benz looked like in full. In hindsight, they plainly felt they were tired of redesigning parallel to the S-Class and then being blind-sided at reveal.

To be clear, I was speaking of the second delay of the 5LS, which would have happened some time after the "major-minor" LS update in 2012. Really, @Carmaker1 has taken my pet theory and turned it into something more understandable -- the idea that Lexus was tired of chasing the S-Class makes more sense.

The worst thing that can happen right is for Lexus to announce they will reveal it at Tokyo 2017 as a MY2019, timed 2 year after the LF-FC debut. I don't believe that will happen, it would be the largest disappointment ever. Gotta be Detroit. I remember how just right in the middle of Detroit 2015, it was quietly announced that the LC would be revealed at 2016 NAIAS. It came true.

Aside from that, naturally this car would be unveiled in Detroit regardless. Summer 2017 has been reported by one reputable American source and some Australian sources, with the latter noting they will get the car in 2018 after 2017 global launch. The only way it will not be unveiled at Detroit, is if indeed they have opted for a private event whenever (like in 1994 with '95 LS), pushed it back to a Q1 2018 mid-year release, or stupidly cram it in as a 2019 model with a bevy of new cars due in 2018-19 (ES, GS, UX, IS, and LX)

All the whispers I hear point to a debut in Detroit.

I think we need to rename the site as "Lexus Enthusiast feat. @Carmaker1" after that. Great info dump!

Agreed, absolutely amazing insight here. I think I speak for everyone here when I say thanks to @Carmaker1 for dropping some serious science into this conversation.

 

[Carmaker1]

What is this????! Auto Blog called it an ES test mule, but that is nothing other than an LHD 200B test mule using an XF40 LS body.

The G12 BMW 7er in the background is proof of this, besides the body of this car.

 

[meth.ix]

The article says that the headlights are covered up by the 2IS headlights, which can be clearly seen. Maybe they were just testing out a new engine on the old LS? Probably the RC F/GS F 5.0 L V8.

 

[krew]

krew

A fully-camouflaged Lexus test mule of the next-generation flagship sedan was caught cruising.

View the original article post

 

[Madi]

The article says that the headlights are covered up by the 2IS headlights, which can be clearly seen. Maybe they were just testing out a new engine on the old LS? Probably the RC F/GS F 5.0 L V8.

Yes, I think they test a revamped 5.0 L engine since it must be quieter than the engine of the GS F or RC F.

And maybe a revamped copy of LC platform to be appropriate to the LS diamentions.