The Future of the IS Thread

[The boy of car dreaming.]

Although there is a VERY slim possibility that the 2021 IS 350 could use the 2.4 or 2.5-liter turbo engine instead of the current 3.5-liter V6, I'm strongly convinced that they're saving the 2.4T/2.5T debut for the 2nd-generation NX. It would be appropriate, given that the current NX was the first Toyota/Lexus vehicle to use the current 8AR-FTS 2-liter 4-cylinder turbocharged engine.

Although there is a VERY slim possibility that the 2021 IS 350 could use the 2.4 or 2.5-liter turbo engine instead of the current 3.5-liter V6, I'm strongly convinced that they're saving the 2.4T/2.5T debut for the 2nd-generation NX. It would be appropriate, given that the current NX was the first Toyota/Lexus vehicle to use the current 8AR-FTS 2-liter 4-cylinder turbocharged engine.

Well, if that’s the case the (NX) was the first turbo car Maybe will save to happen next (IS) with RWD & AWD. IDK! maybe a surprise is coming from them.

 

[mediumhot]

You believe Motor Trend has any inside sources? I believe they just read Japanese mags and come to these forums or some similar where real insiders reside and then go home to write something about.

 

[mediumhot]

I disagree with you on this part. Lexus sees and knows the IS is underperforming - the just don't really care, and this is their last bandaid solution to have something in that segment (probably before pulling the plug). Lexus has a certain way of letting products wither away and die out, and then after years of not doing anything or enough to keep them competitive, Toyota says, "See? Sales were so bad, nobody bought it so there's really no case to keep it - nobody will miss it." The precursor they omit is the long neglect and lack of investment they make in some products that brings them to that point.

I personally believe Toyota has a master plan to move most RWD Lexus products to electrified FWD/AWD platforms, so letting products like GS, RC and IS die out with no investment allows them to make their own case that the only viable future for their RWD portfolio is FWD with electric motors at the rear, or BEV, or through partnerships (Mazda, BMW). And I understand from a cost and logistics perspective - they may be right, and once you add batteries, FWD/AWD/RWD really doesn't matter as much. But the way they go about it feels like a Trump press briefing full of fake news.

If they are going to deliver a Mazda-bred IS in ~2025, imagine what state the IS would be in at that point? No brand, and certainly not Lexus, can neglect products for 15 years at a time and then come back to the market and say, "Oh, we're back! Come buy this car- we promise its cool this time after having the same platform and same engine for 20 years!" BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Tesla will be in another world by that time. Lexus has SORELY underestimated 1) how quickly the market has moved around them and 2) how fickle luxury consumers are. I think they still believe people will buy their cars regardless because they run for 200,00 miles with oil changes. New reality: nobody cares in the luxury segment because they all lease.

I agree with you. Now that I put all the pieces in place it's by time of the previous LS460 big refresh that they have given up on RWD completely. They just wanted to buy some time and did not want to invest big money into RWD anymore. So instead of making two LS models now they just have to make one (current one) and to spice things up I even believe there was a big battle within the board if new LS should even be made at all. What gives it away is that 3.5TT stopgap engine. 5LS is like 4GS a swan song before an actual good bye, not saying they will drop LS badge but it will not be the LS we know in the future. From 2013 Lexus knows they cannot compete in RWD segment anymore as they don't have the engines and cool gimmick technology for marketing purposes to keep with the fierce German competition so they are on standby waiting for a market reset in form of BEV or PHEV or something. Unfortunately Lexus never got to be completely independent from Toyota and that's how they've ended up in this mess in the first place, they are lucky SUVs took off so any kind of thrash SUV will sell no matter what.

 

[internalaudit]

I'm also rooting for the underdog Acura to come up with a nice sedan BEV with SH-AWD. Always best to diversify and not be tied to a single brand.

If that doesn't happen, likely going Audi if BMW beaver tooth design will be the new norm and if 10 year 1 million km warranty becomes the norm. I don't mind changing cars every 10 years.

 

[Gecko]

I agree with you. Now that I put all the pieces in place it's by time of the previous LS460 big refresh that they have given up on RWD completely. They just wanted to buy some time and did not want to invest big money into RWD anymore. So instead of making two LS models now they just have to make one (current one) and to spice things up I even believe there was a big battle within the board if new LS should even be made at all. What gives it away is that 3.5TT stopgap engine. 5LS is like 4GS a swan song before an actual good bye, not saying they will drop LS badge but it will not be the LS we know in the future. From 2013 Lexus knows they cannot compete in RWD segment anymore as they don't have the engines and cool gimmick technology for marketing purposes to keep with the fierce German competition so they are on standby waiting for a market reset in form of BEV or PHEV or something. Unfortunately Lexus never got to be completely independent from Toyota and that's how they've ended up in this mess in the first place, they are lucky SUVs took off so any kind of thrash SUV will sell no matter what.

I agree. The one that throws me for a loop is the development and existence of GA-L & GA-N, but I think those platforms were designed before Toyota realized a market shift to FWD/electric. I will explain.

My sense is that GA-N and GA-L probably started development in ~2013, well before battery and electric tech became so prevalent. At that time, it would have certainly seemed that Lexus would need a next generation RWD architecture, and knowing that TNGA was coming, it would make sense to think of GA-L/GA-N as the Lexus RWD equivalent of the FWD TNGA platforms.

As electrification grew in popularity, SUVs started to overtake passenger cars in sales, and possibly seeing some powertrain/development delays and realizing they would not be able to fully compete with new premium/higher performance offerings from BMW, Mercedes and BMW, I think Toyota started to realize a new vision for Lexus that was different from what we knew before: A future where everything short of the flagships would be platform engineered Toyota products... both because of advancements realized through TNGA ("FWD is now good/stiff/flexible/capable enough") and cost sharing. Lexus used to have a lot more freedom, but that was reigned in after projects like the GS, IS and RC never quite lived up to their promises.

Considering the advancements made with TNGA, specifically GA-K, and seeing a shrinking market for traditional RWD sedans, Lexus makes the decision in ~2016 to retire the GS and position the next gen ES as the de facto Lexus midsize sedan. This explains the lack of AWD on the ES (GS was cancelled too late to engineer ES for AWD in time for launch), and something like an ES F-Sport model is an easy late addition to appeal to some disenfranchised GS buyers. Crown moves forward with GA-N as planned because it's a prestige/nostalgia play in Japan.

Shortly after, probably 2017, the work that was done on the GS is repurposed to become the Mirai. The IS continues to underperform, the market for RWD sedans continues to shrink, so the late-term decision is made to can a GA-N IS and move forward with a heavy refresh. This would explain some of the Best Car/MagX renders showing the side flanks looking 95% the same but with updated front and rear ends.

At this point (2017) with a fading future for RWD, almost all R&D resources are dedicated towards TNGA FWD platforms (new engines, hybrids, 2.5L PHEV, dynamic torque vectoring AWD, in-wheel electric motors), electrification/batteries, and TNGA-F to prepare for the next gen BOF lineups. This probably also explains why the LF-1 is taking so long to come to market... it is riding on what is seen internally as a niche platform that's going to need a new AWD system and further development to be adapted for an SUV. Meanwhile, Toyota is churning out new GA-K models and SUVs every 6 months.

2019 comes and we start getting rumors about Mazda collaboration for RWD vehicles. Now, Toyota has probably closed future development of their own RWD programs but since Akio has a soft spot for sports cars, Toyota says, "You know... sure. We can give it a shot. Maybe we can resurrect the RC or something... and if we do that, we might as well spin off an IS." But the reality there is probably TBD, and heavily dependent on what's happening in the market right now, which doesn't look good. Whatever is developed for ~2025 will need to be somewhat electric, if not fully electric. Mazda, of all companies, is going to come to the table with a RWD electric platform that Toyota refuses to build? I will be very interested to see how this turns out, if anything even comes of it.

It's now 2020 and the reality of everything above starts to hit: GS is cancelled, IS will see a heavy aesthetic (third) refresh with carryover ancient powertrains, LF-1 is nowhere in sight, LS needs additional investment to be competitive, LC F seems to have evaporated... but FWD GA-K, Toyota-based products have never looked better: rumors about amazing 2NX are rampant, ES will be refreshed this fall, and everyone is starting to think about the next gen RX. Toyota is introducing two all-new hybrid models next week alone and this is after just seeing the RAV4 Prime/TRD Off Road, Highlander, Yaris Cross and Harrier just over the last 6 months.

TL;DR: I think the development of GA-L and GA-N are probably seen internally as wasted resources, and most likely errors, especially with such low sales of LS and LC. They were created before the era of electrification and SUV dominance but pushed forward because those projects were already so badly delayed, and I can guarantee that if Toyota had it to do over again, they would not have invested the money in them. It is for that reason that I do not think they have a long life into the future. New premium RWD architecture for slow selling LS and LC, niche Mirai and Crown? Likely impossible to justify.

 

[internalaudit]

Isn't the next gen 86/BRZ on Toyota's RWD platform or will that be on Subaru's?

 

[Gecko]

Isn't the next gen 86/BRZ on Toyota's RWD platform or will that be on Subaru's?

Toyota has no suitable RWD platform for them. GA-L and GA-N are very heavy, Supra is a chopped up 2 Series. The existing twins are on a modified Impreza platform, so I expect they will refresh that platform just for the sake of R&D.

Back to IS 😊

 

[James]

I think I've said this before but I just can't read Gecko's posts anymore it just makes me sad thinking of Lexus's future...yes I know the truth hurts but can't I live in this fantasy world a little longer where we get a brand new IS with a brand new ISF where we build up the F brand not get less F models...

 

[The boy of car dreaming.]

Well, the brand have any purpose to make a comeback and make new products again but better. Maybe they are testing their client and how will be their react and rumors. I recommend to write Lexus news on (google) to check what they are doing.

 

[zeusus]

It's now 2020 and the reality of everything above starts to hit: GS is cancelled, IS will see a heavy aesthetic (third) refresh with carryover ancient powertrains, LF-1 is nowhere in sight, LS needs additional investment to be competitive, LC F seems to have evaporated... but FWD GA-K, Toyota-based products have never looked better: rumors about amazing 2NX are rampant, ES will be refreshed this fall, and everyone is starting to think about the next gen RX. Toyota is introducing two all-new hybrid models next week alone and this is after just seeing the RAV4 Prime/TRD Off Road, Highlander, Yaris Cross and Harrier just over the last 6 months.

Let me ruffle the feathers a little here.

LF-1 is nowhere in sight

The LC concept premiered NAIAS 2012 and they premiered the production model 4 years later at Detroit 2016. The LF-1 Limitless premiered at Detroit 2018. "Nowhere in sight?" yes, in 2014 the LC500 was also nowhere in sight. The doom and gloom bias is getting ahead of what was supposed to be reason and logic. An April 2020 recent rumor by C&D put the next release in 2022, its just a rumor though it is in line with the LC's timeline. I'm not a genius but I can at least gather that in car speak, 2 years is not a long time and certainly within sight.

LC F seems to have evaporated

Just 6 months ago, Lexus announced a new potentially 600+hp TT V8 to be used in the LC race car at N24. Most of us already know by now the LCF is said to be pushed back an additional year. All this negativity sounds quite exaggerated. Perhaps enthusiasts are too spoiled by a flow of constant rumors that a sudden lapse in rumor milling induces panic that all hope is lost and that the coming model seems to have all but evaporated? It shouldn't though and shows mental weakness.

We all like Lexus, we're all excited for the new stuff, we all want it now. Doesn't mean we shart all over it when things don't come out according to our own expectations. Or maybe you do, but I don't. If Lexus wasn't serious, they would not even bother with the LC-F and leave it as a pipe dream for communities like this. They're making an effort to bring products the enthusiasts want that are obviously not going to be money makers and they still get the blame-stick. Yet the same enthusiasts continually want Lexus to make products which are no longer profitably feasible. Ok, makes great sense. If the enthusiasts were in charge of the company, it would simply go bankrupt.

 

[LexsCTJill]

I do not believe that sedans have met their end; they may sell in (far) fewer numbers than crossover and sport utility vehicles right now but I believe that CUVs and SUVs are merely the current fashion, and all fashions eventually come to an end.

I believe that it is important for automakers, both mainstream and luxury brands, to maintain some balance between sedans and light trucks (CUVs and SUVs). The automakers that fail to maintain a balance right now, and either stop producing and selling sedans, or let them die a slow death, will be the automakers that fail (or come very close to failure) when the current light truck fashion ends and buyers start looking for sedans again. We do not have to look that far in the past to see this lack of balance play itself out: In the great recession of 2008, the Detroit 3 automakers almost failed because they had ignored their sedans and instead put all their eggs into trucks, and when buyers came looking for cars, they found no compelling models in the lots of the Detroit 3 dealers.

I don't know what will happen with the Lexus IS but I do hope that Lexus maintains a balance of light truck and sedan, soft-luxury and sport-luxury.

We should also keep the thought in the back of our minds that regardless of whether Lexus decides to introduce a new TNGA-platform IS or updates and refines the New N-platform IS, the decision-making process started some 2 or 3 (or more) years ago. While it is (relatively) easy and quick to cancel a model, it takes a long time to bring a new model to market. The current pandemic may delay an imminent introduction and release by months but the model that does come was conceived years ago. Assuming an imminent release (in the next few months), planning and engineering for an updated IS would have started 2 or 3 years ago (maybe more if the new refreshed model includes a retrofitted V8 or is stretched), and planning and engineering for a completely new IS would have started 4 or 5 (or more) years ago.

The switch to cross overs is a permanent shift in my opinion. There is no coming back. All evidence supports this. Toyota can still make sedans in the lower price points because Corolla/Camry have such worldwide volumes....Lexus cannot support a next generation IS on their own if they want to make money and have it viable...on the other hand, maybe partnering with Mazda or BMW would help.

The other problem is that new redesigns are getting very very expensive, it is hard to offer all kinds of stuff while keeping prices low and quality high.

 

[Levi]

...once you add batteries, FWD/AWD/RWD really doesn't matter as much.

I have to disagree with this. Pictures are worth a thousand words.

New reality: nobody cares in the luxury segment because they all lease.

True, but I do not support this reality which is everything but ecological. Now it is luxury segment, who tells you tomorrow it won't be budget segment? If cars get the same service life as now household appliances (washing machines, fridges) with 1 year warranty and the thing must be replaced in 3 years because of on unreplacable/too expensive, not worth repair electronic component, we have a real problem. In fact we already have it.

I think the development of GA-L and GA-N are probably seen internally as wasted resources, and most likely errors, especially with such low sales of LS and LC. They were created before the era of electrification and SUV dominance but pushed forward because those projects were already so badly delayed, and I can guarantee that if Toyota had it to do over again, they would not have invested the money in them. It is for that reason that I do not think they have a long life into the future. New premium RWD architecture for slow selling LS and LC, niche Mirai and Crown? Likely impossible to justify.

I hope Genesis will be successful and prove Lexus wrong. The shift to FWD/BEV has not turned well for some, namely Infiniti and to some extent Acura, that did plan on introducing a RWD platform with the ZDX and RLX, alongside the LFA with the FMR V10 NSX (HSV), but everything got cancelled. Mazda has long wanted to make the 6 RWD, as they previewed with their concepts, and so did Alfa Romeo since the 156, but they had no more RWD platform, the 159 that was to be RWD finally got a FWD GM platform, and had to wait till the skunk works Giorgio platform to get a well made RWD Giulia. Now that the Giulia does not sell is because of the same "inferiority" compared to the Germans and the no old stereotype of unreliability, which is hypocritical, because customers don't buy but lease and change every 3 or 4 years.

CUVs/SUVs are not an excuse for the lack of RWD platforms. It also is a problem that companies claim to be niches, but at the end no 'niche marketing' is only a tool to gain a USP/brand recognition, and then the battle for Top 1 begins. Smartphone market example: no phone maker cares for the compact smartphone market (under 5 inches screen), every phone is minimum 6 inches.

It will be sad to come to the situation where if you want a sedan, you'll only have a choice of the the German 3. I especially don't like the image of BMW and Mercedes (that is another topic), Audi is more neutral.

 

[Berto3818]

I take what MT says with a grain of salt. They are so bias of lexus and out to smeared them with every chance they get. its doom and gloom and to much nit picking. I just turned the page everytime they review any lexus car. i read all the comments and it just seems nothing is concret and its all guessing. I think the brands best years are in coming. LC-F-LQ- new LX. Make some investment in the LS. i think things are going to be good once this pandemic subsides and some normalcy comes back into the equation.

 

[internalaudit]

I guess some more reasons to want a sedan/coupe:

higher center of gravity:

2019 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Rolls Over in IIHS Testing

The 2019 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Sport 4x4 rolled over during the IIHS small driver-side overlap crash test, which reduced its overall rating to Marginal.

www.motortrend.com

pricey to get 0.90g's

Best-Handling SUVs and Crossovers

SUVs have conquered America’s roads and driveways, but folks still want to enjoy the thrill of driving. Here are SUVs that handle nearly as well as sedans.

www.motortrend.com

pass the moose test whatever the point of the test is.


I think I have the most patience in this bunch because I'm not itching to get any new vehicle any time soon (middle-aged but not in a mid-life crisis) and know what I want in a BEV but if Toyota/Lexus can come up with an exciting to drive BEV sedan with large front overhang because i almost shares a FWD platform, I could be a taker. Not all of them look that bad anyway or I just got used to them lol.

 

[Felixcat]

For production version, it is hard to fit the 5.0 V8 into the IS without modifying the V8 and changing the vehicle's front structure.

Technically speaking the 5.0 V8 can be fit into the IS engine bay (as you may have already seen some aftermarket mod examples). However since the IS is narrower than the RC and GS (by ~ 4cm), the shorter distance between the strut towers makes the V8 a tight fit in IS. There will be little room left for the external piping and wiring.

When the vehicle is running (or even tracking), the engine vibrates or will even shift back and forth a little bit. Therefore the tubes, pipes, wirings will rub against the strut tower or the valve cover, this will cause serious reliability issue in the long run.

With that being said, for aftermarket modification or weekend hobby purpose, fitting a V8 into the current IS is doable, but from Lexus cooperate perspective, this can't be done unless they modify the 5.0 V8's valvetrain geometry, or change the shape of the struct tower, both are quite costly given such model will be low sales volume.

The V6TT is a more logical choice - it is a 60-degree V6 (much narrower than the 90-degree V8), so ample room to fit the turbo charger under the V bank.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Toyota has no suitable RWD platform for them. GA-L and GA-N are very heavy, Supra is a chopped up 2 Series.

False. The Supra has its own dedicated platform that is unfamiliar with any other BMW out there bar the Z4. Sure some of the hard points may be similar like you see with TNGA, but the majority of the architecture itself is unique, especially in the Supra.

The existing twins are on a modified Impreza platform, so I expect they will refresh that platform just for the sake of R&D.

Correct on the former, as for the latter, maybe there could be a justification to use their own TNGA platform. I wouldn't totally give up that idea yet and it seems like it's going to be this way. I've been hearing about a Toyota 86 with the TNGA platform for a year and a half and the new 86 will be released in ~2023 and so far we haven't heard of anything else.

 

[Gecko]

False. The Supra has its own dedicated platform that is unfamiliar with any other BMW out there bar the Z4. Sure some of the hard points may be similar like you see with TNGA, but the majority of the architecture itself is unique, especially in the Supra.

My bad. I thought it was a chopped up 2 series platform, but it seems that BMW will use the platform for the NEXT gen 2 series. :thumbsup:

 

[Gecko]

I have to disagree with this. Pictures are worth a thousand words.

Unfortunately, Lexus has no problems with unsightly proportions or absurd front overhangs:

 

[ssun30]

I thought Ssun mentioned that good handling BEVs will require longitudinal wheelbase or something to that effect?

How hard is it to stick the motors in the rear (or beefier ones if it's AWD) in electric car platforms?

I never said that. I only said longitudinal wheelbase is to get more space for batteries.

Rear-mounted motor RWD is pretty standard and is used by both Tesla and VW's MEB platform. Toyota also has a 150kW rear motor package designed for RWD and AWD.

TL;DR: I think the development of GA-L and GA-N are probably seen internally as wasted resources, and most likely errors, especially with such low sales of LS and LC. They were created before the era of electrification and SUV dominance but pushed forward because those projects were already so badly delayed, and I can guarantee that if Toyota had it to do over again, they would not have invested the money in them. It is for that reason that I do not think they have a long life into the future. New premium RWD architecture for slow selling LS and LC, niche Mirai and Crown? Likely impossible to justify.

I'm thinking the similar thing. The main problem with GA-L/N is that they were delayed so much and launched with bad timing. Had the LS been released on time for 2015/16, then GA-L/N products would be harder to kill.

Like many other manufacturers, they could have repurposed GA-L/N as a transitional electric platform, because the extra wheelbase provides more space for batteries. But repurposed ICE platforms will always be sub-optimal and they went for an E-TNGA or nothing strategy (with the exception of C-HR/Izoa/UXe, but these products started development in 2016 before BEV became a big thing).

Another thing that probably changed their mind is the development of E-Axle. If you look at the size of C-HR/UXe's motor, you see they are able to integrate a 150kW motor into a very compact package. This allows them to give GA-K platform vehicles very easy and modular access to high power density hybrid system (with added benefit of AWD), while their longitudinal RWD platform is not compatible with it.

 

[Rob Grieveson]

i hope the picture above in red is pretty accurate - i really like how they have remodelled the car, in particular the grille looks much better proportioned and overall the car looks compact and smart. Bring it on.