The Future of the IS Thread

[internalaudit]

This is one of the longest thread at over 1k replies. I'd be surprised if Lexus has the balls to pull the plug on the IS without filling the void first. The GS is for now no more.

I know some, like the Audi employee, just likes to post every so often to see if he can covert a few to Audi but the IS is the ambassador to the brand.

The ES is nice on paper but will never be an enthusiast's car with FWD bias and a transverse mounted engine. The UX exists because it is the new entry level CUV and it will sell well just because. Perhaps because the NX is pricey (base 2019 NX300h in Canada was stripped of some features and lowered to $36k from $40).

 

[krew]

It’s now Motor Trend’s turn to weigh in on the 2021 Lexus IS sedan. They broadly agree with Mag-X that we’ll see a second facelift on the current IS instead of a next-generation model.
Motor Trend reports the updated IS will receive an exterior refresh alongside an upgraded chassis, a thoroughly reworked suspension, a more luxurious interior with reworked dashboard and an updated infotainment system. Powertrain options would remain unchanged.
On the subject of the IS 500, however, Motor Trend states that “Lexus product planners are still deciding if this model makes sense, so you definitely won’t see it at launch”. Should the IS 500 come to fruition, Motor Trend believes it would use the LS...

Continue reading...

 

[krew]

@internalaudit, cool your jets. Disagreements are fine, but there is no need to get personal.

@suxeL, you are more than welcome to continue contributing in this thread.

 

[CRSKTN]

QUICK, EVERYONE, IT'S A VAGUE RUMOR (THAT SOUNDS ODDLY FAMILIAR) SAYING LEXUS IS UNDECIDED. OBVIOUSLY THIS MEANS A GIANT CONGLOMERATE IS AWAITING OUR DECISION, AND NOT JUST INTERNET TELEPHONE AGAIN. THIS IS WHAT WE'VE BEEN TRAINING FOR.

SPECULATE AS LOUD AS YOU CAN.
IS5000000000000000000000000

But seriously please make it.

 

[internalaudit]

@internalaudit, cool your jets. Disagreements are fine, but there is no need to get personal.

@suxeL, you are more than welcome to continue contributing in this thread.

I am not getting personal. He says to keep the posts on topic and mentions I am better suited for the 5IS. That articles from Motor Trend and others are speculative yet I haven't come across any citations to base most of his remarks on.

No offense but that sounds hypocritical.

I never told him not to post. He said it out of his own volition.

If he doesn't want me to respond, then maybe he should not keep quoting me to elicit a response.

 

[spwolf]

Sadly, Lexus probably looks at this and realizes that a refreshed IS would outsell the Koreans combined just because of brand recognition, and is OK with that as an exercise in minimal effort. Q50 is rapidly becoming as irrelevant as Infiniti - not that Lexus is doing much better. Their 400hp engine has not done anything to buoy sales.

A refresh of a 7 year old car is 100% proof of thought saying, "Let's see what we can get out of this with minimal effort and investment." There is no real strategy or "be best in class" play happening at Lexus anymore from what we have seen.

I am not sure why would Lexus care if they outsell Koreans? Not their target market.
Or how is Lexus not doing much better than Infiniti?

I can actually see this being just a facelift as what they did with CT200h in Japan and Europe - basically giving it some time to live until all new version comes in. Today is not a great environment to launch a small sports sedan.

So I can see few things happening:
a. Small facelift in the sense of CT200h facelifts, to keep model sales going until all new models comes out, 3 years later. When their EV platform is more ready and when they expect sedans to recover.

b. Small facelift as above but because at some point, they decided that working with Mazda will be more beneficial than using larger/heavier TNGA platform. With Mazda they can develop smaller RWD platform, that is lighter and cheaper. Might use it for sporty CUV too.

c. Decided to use New-N platform with new powertrains, interior/exterior, making it lighter and sportier than before.

d. Combination of some of the things above

 

[LexsCTJill]

I don’t understand why so many people are so obsessed with Lexus and the lack of new sedans. Sedans are finished, the future of Lexus is hybrid, and crossovers. Lexus will be remembered for the hybrid technologies and crossovers, this is just the way it goes, as the industry changes. Eventually you’ll probably see electric vehicles as well as fuel cell vehicles.

 

[Gecko]

I am not sure why would Lexus care if they outsell Koreans? Not their target market.
Or how is Lexus not doing much better than Infiniti?

My point is Lexus knows they don't need to inject more power and sport into the IS to outsell the G70 and Stinger - they can do that just because they are Lexus. They are a profit/business-driven company, so of course that makes sense. I expect many people to try to draw comparisons to the G70 being a better car - which it may be - but Lexus does not care about being the better car, they care about being more profitable.

Infiniti brand is a joke overall, but the Q50 still outsells the IS 2:1. Infiniti has invested more in keeping the Q50 current than Lexus has with the IS, so they probably earned that sales title.

 

[ssun30]

I don't see this 4IS being a BEV, and we've some information to back it up:

2020 BEV is the UX300e, and Lexus also stated this is going to be only BEV built on a non-dedicated platform, so for 2022 BEV we've some possibilities:

• SUV
  • NX is coming up in 2021, so it's not it
  • RX, LX, LF'1 seems unlikely to me, given their size they would require quite a enormous battery
• Sedan
  • 4IS is rumored to come up this year, so it's not it
  • LS a refresh is coming up

Check out my Toyota BEV rumor thread.

I have to agree with you here. E-TNGA currently has 6 products in the pipeline by 2025: a compact hatchback, a mid-size sedan, a mid-size minivan, a mid-size SUV, a mid-size CUV, and a full-size SUV. They will have a lot more products planned for ChDM but those will share platform with local partners so Lexus will get none of those.

We actually know some details of three products: the mid-size minivan is comparable to Previa/Estima, the mid-size SUV is comparable to RX, and the full-size SUV is comparable to the Sequoia. Those three will be the first wave of E-TNGA coming in 2022. Unfortunately we don't know of any sedan in the works, so I guess it's a low priority project at the moment.

Now there is a tiny possibility Lexus is working an independent TM3-competitor project, but given the company's track record I am 99% certain it will be a rebadge. All but their flagships are minimum effort programs, we just have to consider that a fact now.

So which one of the three is most likely? Of course the RX-size SUV. With a 2850mm wheelbase it will likely also use the 'mid-size' battery pack which I assume is in the 75-80kWh range. Not very impressive but it will be in a sweetspot for cost effectiveness (100kWh is still very expensive for a $40-60k car) and with Toyota's highly efficient electric powertrain hit the 500km/300mi sweetspot as well. Now they could also make the Sequoia-size SUV with the 100kWh pack and finally satisfy US dealer's demand for a Escalade fighter. But I'm strongly convinced a Model Y fighter is the top priority. We all now Model Y is the next big hit in the BEV world.

The fact that they only have 2 E-TNGA BEVs before 2025 is very disappointing for me. It means no electric LS, LF1, GS, or IS. And then LS FC is also cancelled. They literally have nothing at the top with alternative fuel option. The parent company has adjusted their plans to a very aggressive 1 million BEV/FCV (but we know 95% of that will be BEV) by 2025, but Lexus only has three products by then. They will be nothing but an afterthought as the parent company goes full steam ahead.

The question really is: why not rebadge all Toyota E-TNGA BEVs? They will have a CT-e (one that I'm sure EU market is dying for), an IS-e, a NX-e, a RX-e, and a LX-e (USDM may really want it too) which will all be minimum effort projects. How much less effort do they even want to put in?

 

[suxeL]

@internalaudit, cool your jets. Disagreements are fine, but there is no need to get personal.

@suxeL, you are more than welcome to continue contributing in this thread.

Thanks for the shoutout, will do!

 

[Gecko]

I don’t understand why so many people are so obsessed with Lexus and the lack of new sedans. Sedans are finished, the future of Lexus is hybrid, and crossovers. Lexus will be remembered for the hybrid technologies and crossovers, this is just the way it goes, as the industry changes. Eventually you’ll probably see electric vehicles as well as fuel cell vehicles.

Probably because everything else in the Lexus lineup is FWD-based and on a 15 year old platform with a 15 year old engine, so to be a Lexus enthusiast, you have to rub a buddha's belly, look into your crystal ball, pray to your God, cry, sacrifice your first born child, etc. and hope they deliver some vehicle that might be somewhat fun to drive and competitive. Otherwise, the inevitable seems to be Toyota or the Germans.

 

[Sulu]

I don’t understand why so many people are so obsessed with Lexus and the lack of new sedans. Sedans are finished, the future of Lexus is hybrid, and crossovers. Lexus will be remembered for the hybrid technologies and crossovers, this is just the way it goes, as the industry changes. Eventually you’ll probably see electric vehicles as well as fuel cell vehicles.

I do not believe that sedans have met their end; they may sell in (far) fewer numbers than crossover and sport utility vehicles right now but I believe that CUVs and SUVs are merely the current fashion, and all fashions eventually come to an end.

I believe that it is important for automakers, both mainstream and luxury brands, to maintain some balance between sedans and light trucks (CUVs and SUVs). The automakers that fail to maintain a balance right now, and either stop producing and selling sedans, or let them die a slow death, will be the automakers that fail (or come very close to failure) when the current light truck fashion ends and buyers start looking for sedans again. We do not have to look that far in the past to see this lack of balance play itself out: In the great recession of 2008, the Detroit 3 automakers almost failed because they had ignored their sedans and instead put all their eggs into trucks, and when buyers came looking for cars, they found no compelling models in the lots of the Detroit 3 dealers.

I don't know what will happen with the Lexus IS but I do hope that Lexus maintains a balance of light truck and sedan, soft-luxury and sport-luxury.

We should also keep the thought in the back of our minds that regardless of whether Lexus decides to introduce a new TNGA-platform IS or updates and refines the New N-platform IS, the decision-making process started some 2 or 3 (or more) years ago. While it is (relatively) easy and quick to cancel a model, it takes a long time to bring a new model to market. The current pandemic may delay an imminent introduction and release by months but the model that does come was conceived years ago. Assuming an imminent release (in the next few months), planning and engineering for an updated IS would have started 2 or 3 years ago (maybe more if the new refreshed model includes a retrofitted V8 or is stretched), and planning and engineering for a completely new IS would have started 4 or 5 (or more) years ago.

 

[internalaudit]

Lexus strategy makes sense because CUVs are typically gas guzzlers so the value proposition for people to take up CUV BEVs are much higher than taking one up in a sedan/coupe. Even the new 330i can do 40 (as per C/D 75 mph testing) US MPG on the highway that's like RAV4H fuel economy.

I am actually quite surprised Lexus offered a 10-year 1 million battery warranty on the UX300e if it has no plans to do a BEV line up blitz. Two additional CUVs by 2025 is probably not going to cut it. I'm happy with our 16 RAV4H (low maintenance) and until it dies, I have no plans of getting another BEV in CUV form unless it drives 85% of a Macan S and what are the chances of that happening? I just need a CUV whenever there are guests flying in and out or if there is that one road trip we will require a lot of baggage space. No point selling it and getting another CUV BEV. We want more driving distance, even if it's just 10% more since we have winter weather to contend with where we live.

The European makers will likely have to follow suit with the battery warranty (they are luxury or premium by association after all) and then many of us may actually be drawn to those BEVs while perhaps awaiting Lexus/Toyota ones. Then we realize German BEVs are all right because they don't have engines breaking down and the high voltage systems do away with the electric gremlins. Some articles even popped up late last week on my Google App projecting German car makers will lead the BEV evolution. They do have a pressing need to meet Euro emissions requirements.

Lexus Cohen might actually have good leads here for his Audi BEVs, 20 by 2025.

 

[spwolf]

My point is Lexus knows they don't need to inject more power and sport into the IS to outsell the G70 and Stinger - they can do that just because they are Lexus. They are a profit/business-driven company, so of course that makes sense. I expect many people to try to draw comparisons to the G70 being a better car - which it may be - but Lexus does not care about being the better car, they care about being more profitable.

Infiniti brand is a joke overall, but the Q50 still outsells the IS 2:1. Infiniti has invested more in keeping the Q50 current than Lexus has with the IS, so they probably earned that sales title.

sure... i just think that IS selling 1000, or 1200/mo is all the same to Lexus. If they really wanted it to sell, they would build it cheap enough to be still attractive and at the same time get great lease offers that competition sells their cars with.

Also, great majority of buyers do not buy sport or power in this class. IS500 would be great for press and forum wars, but otherwise lease deals would be on IS300 with 2.0t engine and base equipment. Most of 3 series and A4's in Europe are sold with cloth seats and 2.0 diesel and at very low price (ie price of well equipped C-HR).

 

[James]

Man this title now just depresses me...update...well this is why people jump ship. You buy or lease one sure and then maybe a second but how many are going to get a third with just an update...? Fingers crossed this isn’t true or it’s a major update like major major. Ugh Lexus killing us here!

 

[The boy of car dreaming.]

I am glad the brand going to comeback the latest details & luxury but where 2.5T in-line 4?

My doubts can come with?

IS300 base model 2.0T inline-4 242hp and high trims 3.5L V6 311hp.

IS 350 base model 2.0T inline-4 242hp+ and high trim 3.5TT V6 415hp and 385 torque as allcarnews announced the mid cycle refresh (lS).

IS500 base model 2.5T inline-4 and high trim 3.5TTV6 416hp and 442 torque.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

I am glad the brand going to comeback the latest details & luxury but where 2.5T in-line 4?

Although there is a VERY slim possibility that the 2021 IS 350 could use the 2.4 or 2.5-liter turbo engine instead of the current 3.5-liter V6, I'm strongly convinced that they're saving the 2.4T/2.5T debut for the 2nd-generation NX. It would be appropriate, given that the current NX was the first Toyota/Lexus vehicle to use the current 8AR-FTS 2-liter 4-cylinder turbocharged engine.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I do not believe that sedans have met their end; they may sell in (far) fewer numbers than crossover and sport utility vehicles right now but I believe that CUVs and SUVs are merely the current fashion, and all fashions eventually come to an end.

I used to believe that too, but I think CUVs and SUVs have gone well beyond fashion and ended up at "that's just the market now". Ford and GM certainly seem to think so, and it looks like Toyota/Lexus and the Germans aren't far behind.

 

[Gecko]

sure... i just think that IS selling 1000, or 1200/mo is all the same to Lexus. If they really wanted it to sell, they would build it cheap enough to be still attractive and at the same time get great lease offers that competition sells their cars with.

I disagree with you on this part. Lexus sees and knows the IS is underperforming - the just don't really care, and this is their last bandaid solution to have something in that segment (probably before pulling the plug). Lexus has a certain way of letting products wither away and die out, and then after years of not doing anything or enough to keep them competitive, Toyota says, "See? Sales were so bad, nobody bought it so there's really no case to keep it - nobody will miss it." The precursor they omit is the long neglect and lack of investment they make in some products that brings them to that point.

I personally believe Toyota has a master plan to move most RWD Lexus products to electrified FWD/AWD platforms, so letting products like GS, RC and IS die out with no investment allows them to make their own case that the only viable future for their RWD portfolio is FWD with electric motors at the rear, or BEV, or through partnerships (Mazda, BMW). And I understand from a cost and logistics perspective - they may be right, and once you add batteries, FWD/AWD/RWD really doesn't matter as much. But the way they go about it feels like a Trump press briefing full of fake news.

If they are going to deliver a Mazda-bred IS in ~2025, imagine what state the IS would be in at that point? No brand, and certainly not Lexus, can neglect products for 15 years at a time and then come back to the market and say, "Oh, we're back! Come buy this car- we promise its cool this time after having the same platform and same engine for 20 years!" BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Tesla will be in another world by that time. Lexus has SORELY underestimated 1) how quickly the market has moved around them and 2) how fickle luxury consumers are. I think they still believe people will buy their cars regardless because they run for 200,00 miles with oil changes. New reality: nobody cares in the luxury segment because they all lease.

Also, great majority of buyers do not buy sport or power in this class. IS500 would be great for press and forum wars, but otherwise lease deals would be on IS300 with 2.0t engine and base equipment. Most of 3 series and A4's in Europe are sold with cloth seats and 2.0 diesel and at very low price (ie price of well equipped C-HR).

Agreed!

 

[internalaudit]

I thought Ssun mentioned that good handling BEVs will require longitudinal wheelbase or something to that effect?

How hard is it to stick the motors in the rear (or beefier ones if it's AWD) in electric car platforms?