internalaudit

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I think latest on something production ready for SSB is 2025. So I would not count on it just yet.
Standard lithium chemistries get improved all the time too.
Yes, it seems manufacturers are setting people's expectations for 2025 but it may come a little sooner. People are comparing the advancement of SSB with that of li-ion from the early 90's (spanning almost three decades with Sony/Goodenough being first to market) and are discounting the improvements in computing power, more collaboration, Toyota (and others) patents accumulated in the past decade, etc.


I have all the time to wait. Extended warranty on our 16 RAV4H doesn't end until early 2023 and what are the chances of the breaking down being too costly to repair?

If one of my three cars become too costly to repair, my household will be fine with two.

I don't mind li-ion battery BEVs but definitely not paying MSRP and will be willing to buy used, when they're like 40-60% off MSRP. There's even this one Audi e-tron with 11k km marked for $79k here when new it would have been a little over $100k.
 

spwolf

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I am pretty certain that my next car will be an electric or cleaner alternative versions to gas/diesel. However, it seems only Tesla is pushing the boundaries of maximum range, with the news Tesla Roadster earmarked with a ranged of 1,000 KM, c. 600 miles. I am huge fan of Lexus but if they can't compete in electric cars then I am afraid I'll no longer be their customer. Tesla of course, has other issues that more reasoned manufactures have managed better (interior and exterior quality, reliability, etc) but they seem to be catching up on this while offering really great electric engines.

Hopefully Lexus Electrified can catch up because in the infotaintment alone, they are just really behind not just Tesla but MB, BMW and Audi.
there is nothing wrong with buying a Tesla.
 

Ian Schmidt

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there wont be a +1000km EV vehicle... it makes no sense, solves no issue. When they develop such battery, they will still make it 600km-700km range so it weights and costs less.

Problem is fast charging and availability of it.
I think 1000 km+ is what will be necessary when they don't solve the fast charging problem. It'll probably never be possible to add 500 km of range to a BEV in a few minutes like you can with gasoline or FCEV, and so people will demand a longer range to compensate. (Or the ability to quickly swap battery sleds like the Tesla Semi).
 

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there is nothing wrong with buying a Tesla.
They sure have an amazingly well built SUC network (and actually fast charging), with an incredible GPS integration built-in from factory with no-fuss clear pricing.

The problem comes to other non-measurable aspects such as build quality... Build quality, material choice and specially ergonomics is keeping me from buying a TM3...
Maybe it will eventually happen, given this month I’ve realized even the UX300e has been postponed roughly by 6 months for Portugal... Let’s see how much can I stretch my patience... Toyota and Lexus keep testing it...
 

ssun30

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Literally nobody on earth cares about making a vehicle for you.

I'm really sorry but that is insane. You're saying you actively drive in a way where it is over 1,000km before you can refuel?

Why dont you start complaining the AC doesnt go below zero in the car or over 60 degrees Celsius.
Long range capability is quite important for utility/offroad vehicles. There are many places in the world where you cannot refuel for 1000km. Carrying or towing a heavy load also requires very large tanks which means over 1000km range when empty. But out of those there are few use cases for super long range passenger cars.
 

spwolf

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Long range capability is quite important for utility/offroad vehicles. There are many places in the world where you cannot refuel for 1000km. Carrying or towing a heavy load also requires very large tanks which means over 1000km range when empty. But out of those there are few use cases for super long range passenger cars.
Those places will have poor charging infrastructure anyway.

Sweet spot will be around 600-750km just like with normal vehicles. At good price, light weight and fast recharging, of course.
 

Sulu

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Long range capability is quite important for utility/offroad vehicles. There are many places in the world where you cannot refuel for 1000km. Carrying or towing a heavy load also requires very large tanks which means over 1000km range when empty. But out of those there are few use cases for super long range passenger cars.
And those utility vehicles are likely to finish their run at a depot or terminal that can have good recharging and service (both vehicle and driver) facilities. They need the long range but at the end of their run, they have the service facilities to recharge.
 

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Joaquin Ruhi

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July 25, 2020
Solid-state batteries on track at Toyota
HANS GREIMEL - Automotive News

NAGOYA, Japan — If all had gone according to plan, Tokyo would be hosting the Summer Olympics right now, and Toyota Motor Corp., one of the games' top sponsors, would be on center stage there, showcasing the holy grail of next-generation electrified mobility: solid-state batteries.

The COVID-19 pandemic may have derailed the 2020 Games, but not Toyota's engineers. The company's battery gurus have succeeded in producing a working prototype of the new battery technology on schedule, and have mounted them in running concept vehicles.

Keiji Kaita, executive vice president of Toyota Motor Corp.'s powertrain company and field general manager of its battery business, said it is too soon to say when the prototypes will make an official public debut, with the Tokyo Olympics postponed to 2021. Kaita talked with Automotive News here about the new promise of the solid- state battery technology and the obstacles that hinder commercialization.

Proponents believe solid-state batteries are an important step toward an electrified future. The power packs are less vulnerable to extreme temperatures and promise two to three times the energy density of existing lithium ion batteries.

Solid-state batteries replace a liquid electrolyte with a solid and are expected to be lighter, longer-lasting, safer and eventually cheaper than today's batteries. The solid-state prototypes recharge much faster than today's lithium ion batteries, Kaita said.

But Toyota's prototypes still face challenges. For one, because of safety and durability issues, engineers have yet to harness the batteries' true potential for higher energy densities

."To counter limitations, we're looking at how we might adjust the anode or other materials. We are trying to reduce disadvantages that are found," Kaita said.

The prototype cells are hard, plate-like sheets about the size and thickness of a thin spiral notebook. They are sealed in pouches to keep out moisture, then arrayed in modules.

Charging the prototype battery from zero to full takes less than 15 minutes — significantly less than the time required for an equivalent lithium ion battery, Kaita said. "That is another advantage in addition to the potential of high-energy density."

Toyota is focused on using a sulfur- based electrolyte because it seems to facilitate more efficient transfer of lithium ions between the electrodes. But a remaining challenge is developing an electrolyte that can be densely compacted while remaining flexible, Kaita said.

The solid electrolyte needs to be compacted under high pressure to reduce the gaps between particles so ions and electrons can easily pass through. But it also needs to be flexible, because the anode expands and contracts during discharge, and the electrolyte must give a little leeway.

The hitch is, the more expansion and contraction there is, the more the electrolyte particles become deformed. And this deformation inhibits the flow of ions and electrons and degrades battery performance over time. The key is developing a material that won't deform easily. A breakthrough might come from new materials or new designs, Kaita said.

Manufacturing the cells poses its own challenge, particularly because cells must be produced in an ultra- dry, nonaqueous environment.
Today, the cells are made in compact transparent booths called gloveboxes. Workers reach into the boxes through rubber gloves sealed around access openings. The process is slow, awkward and ill-suited to mass production, Kaita said.

Toyota is developing the solid-state batteries through Prime Planet Energy & Solutions Inc., a joint venture with Panasonic that started operations in April and has about 5,100 employees, including 2,400 at a Chinese subsidiary. One of the joint venture's missions is to manufacture and sell automotive solid-state batteries. Toyota is still on track for limited production by 2025, Kaita said.

But those batteries initially will cost more than lithium ion batteries given the lack of scale. He speculated that volume will remain very low in the early years. The cost needs to drop far below $100 per kilowatt- hour to compete with internal-combustion drivetrains, he said.

Complicating Toyota's push is its goal of developing batteries that keep more than 90 percent of their original performance in the long run — perhaps 30 years.

"That can be accomplished by adjusting the performance of the battery, but also through the control system or the cooling system," Kaita said.

"Alternatively, it could be based on how we use the battery or how we charge the battery. A holistic perspective is very important."

https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/solid-state-batteries-track-toyota?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 

internalaudit

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This nicely ties back the video @Will1991 's posted a few weeks ago about Toyota wanting at least 20 years battery lifespan.

Still good to know the SSBs could be out in specific higher-end models in 2025. Maybe the warranty will be close to 15 years by then.
 

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This nicely ties back the video @Will1991 's posted a few weeks ago about Toyota wanting at least 20 years battery lifespan.

Still good to know the SSBs could be out in specific higher-end models in 2025. Maybe the warranty will be close to 15 years by then.
Just because they can lay long, does not mean that they will have 15yr warranties - they won't.

Warranty is a marketing cost for companies, once EV vehicles are established, they won't have such long warranties anymore.
 

internalaudit

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Just because they can lay long, does not mean that they will have 15yr warranties - they won't.

Warranty is a marketing cost for companies, once EV vehicles are established, they won't have such long warranties anymore.
So why give 10 years when industry standard was eight if Toyota is following your trail of thought?

Your argument is falling flat on its face.

If warranty gets clawed back and longevity isn't up to snuff, smart buyers like me will go back to ICEVs. BEVs won't be worthwhile with the premium except for those who want zero emissions.

Eight years standard is because emissions systems were required to be covered for eight years by the US regulators. I already confirmed this before as being the reason, not an arbitrary length of time.

In my experience, manufacturers rarely claw back warranty. They just build it in the price, whenever possible.

Also when I say 15 years, definitely not at 70% lol. I am not a demanding but just a discerning buyer.
 
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ssun30

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4C charge rate, incredible. I wonder if that's repeatable over many cycles or a best case scenario peak value.

This still seems to be in very early stage of commercialization. 2025 is still very optimistic at this rate.
 

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So why give 10 years when industry standard was eight if Toyota is following your trail of thought?

Your argument is falling flat on its face.

If warranty gets clawed back and longevity isn't up to snuff, smart buyers like me will go back to ICEVs.
warranty and longevity are not thickly connected.

It is one thing to have 10 year warranty, and completely another to have battery lasting 10+ years.

Your ICE vehicles has many warranty limitations and yet you will buy it unless you get 10 yr warranty from EV manufacturer?
 

internalaudit

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warranty and longevity are not thickly connected.

It is one thing to have 10 year warranty, and completely another to have battery lasting 10+ years.

Your ICE vehicles has many warranty limitations and yet you will buy it unless you get 10 yr warranty from EV manufacturer?
I already told you the 8-year warranty on batteries was mandated by the US regulators. I'm not sure why you wouldn't quote my entire post and cherry pick to leave out that piece. Unless you are trying to play/look smart.

Of course, I already said the warranty was enforced by regulators. Do you think regulators peg the warranty length to the longevity of the component?

Were there BEVs with 10 year warranty when I bought my ICEVs and HEVs? The RAV4H does come with 8-year warranty on hybrid components, as per US regulators. Of course Canada will follow suit and demand the same length of warranty.

I've driven my dad's vehicles from the mid 70's models to my more current models. We all know the engines last a lot longer.

We cannot say that for Li-ion batteries. I have a few laptops with Li-ion batteries were the batteries are more or less shot and these are not even plugged in all the time but they were abused at one point. Why would CATL announce that its LFP can last 16 years? To me, it sounds as if most current Li-ion batteries won't last that long. Even the older Model S are not going to hit 16 years until what, eight years from now.

As a smart consumer, I wouldn't buy any Li-ion battery BEV new. The longevity of the Li-ion batteries are still suspect.


So now the question is, why is Toyota offering 10 years counter to your arguments that manufacturers are not keen to out class their competitors by offering better warranty? Do you think they just want to pay out a lot of warranty claims (maybe Hyundai and Kia did, initially)?
 
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spwolf

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I already told you the 8-year warranty on batteries was mandated by the US regulators. I'm not sure why you wouldn't quote my entire post and cherry pick to leave out that piece. Unless you are trying to play/look smart.

Of course, I already said the warranty was enforced by regulators. Do you think regulators peg the warranty length to the longevity of the component?

Were there BEVs with 10 year warranty when I bought my ICEVs and HEVs? The RAV4H does come with 8-year warranty on hybrid components, as per US regulators. Of course Canada will follow suit and demand the same length of warranty.

I've driven my dad's vehicles from the mid 70's models to my more current models. We all know the engines last a lot longer.

We cannot say that for Li-ion batteries. I have a few laptops with Li-ion batteries were the batteries are more or less shot and these are not even plugged in all the time but they were abused at one point. Why would CATL announce that its LFP can last 16 years? To me, it sounds as if most current Li-ion batteries won't last that long. Even the older Model S are not going to hit 16 years until what, eight years from now.

As a smart consumer, I wouldn't buy any Li-ion battery BEV new. The longevity of the Li-ion batteries are still suspect.


So now the question is, why is Toyota offering 10 years counter to your arguments that manufacturers are not keen to out class their competitors by offering better warranty? Do you think they just want to pay out a lot of warranty claims (maybe Hyundai and Kia did, initially)?
Nobody is cherry picking anything, quoting whole post is a nightmare. Not sure why you always have this tone where you think I am trying to pick a fight with you.

Here are my 2c:

a. Toyota is offering huge hybrid and now EV warranties in order to assure customers that these "new" technologies are safe and reliable.

b. "Of course Canada will follow suit and demand the same length of warranty." - EPA has mandated 8 year warranty on all emissions based components and yet most if not all other countries in the world never followed suit. If your Audi engine emission tech fails after 2 years, you are free to pay for its repairs in EU (or 3-4 years depending on warranty, it is different in different countries) yet in USA, it is 8 years.

In EU, Toyota has 10 year hybrid component warranty - has nothing to do with regulators, but since their sales are becoming fully hybrid on many models, they want to assure their older customer base that it is safe and reliable. They pay for this by having mandatory hybrid checks after official warranty is out, you pay extra €80/yr for this (at least here) and it is basically their insurance price for hybrid components. Tesla was doing similar but they cancelled it since they do not have enough service centers to do all the checks anymore.
 

internalaudit

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Nobody is cherry picking anything, quoting whole post is a nightmare. Not sure why you always have this tone where you think I am trying to pick a fight with you.

Here are my 2c:

a. Toyota is offering huge hybrid and now EV warranties in order to assure customers that these "new" technologies are safe and reliable.

b. "Of course Canada will follow suit and demand the same length of warranty." - EPA has mandated 8 year warranty on all emissions based components and yet most if not all other countries in the world never followed suit. If your Audi engine emission tech fails after 2 years, you are free to pay for its repairs in EU (or 3-4 years depending on warranty, it is different in different countries) yet in USA, it is 8 years.

In EU, Toyota has 10 year hybrid component warranty - has nothing to do with regulators, but since their sales are becoming fully hybrid on many models, they want to assure their older customer base that it is safe and reliable. They pay for this by having mandatory hybrid checks after official warranty is out, you pay extra €80/yr for this (at least here) and it is basically their insurance price for hybrid components. Tesla was doing similar but they cancelled it since they do not have enough service centers to do all the checks anymore.
a. hybrid technology is not new, it's been out for two decades now. You were the one who suggested there's not reason for manufacturers to offer longer warranties when I initially suggested maybe Toyota could offer 15 years in 2025/26 when it offers SSB in select higher-end models. I countered and said they do citing Toyota's UX300e (and other commercial BEVs too) as an example. Now you changed your tone and sound completely in agreement with what I originally said -- that manufacturers offer better warranties to get consumers on board. Our quotes/responses to each other are there for posterity. You can read them for as long as you want.

b. my perspective is from North America and emissions system is warranted for eight years. Didn't know Europeans had shorter warranties. no wonder dieselgate came about. Risk was only outside EU.

Of course it has everything to do with US warranty (dictated by regulators), don't tell me Toyota randomly selected 10 years vs. the usual eight coverage? That's just simple arithmetic, 8 + 2.

Maybe in the EU, the battery warranties could be a lot shorter. But news and information travel much faster with the internet.

I'm still sure the eight year battery warranty in the EU was adopted from the US standards, which is based on US regulations. US is still probably the second largest market for vehicles after China.

P.S. Just because you don't understand what I posted, it doesn't mean it's incoherent. It could very well be extreme use-error or lack of analytical/comprehension skills. Just so you know because your posts (about lengthening warranty to get more consumers in the door) totally contradict your initial response (manufacturers will not increase existing warranties) when I wrote about potentially a 15-year battery warranty.
 
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spwolf

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P.S. Just because you don't understand what I posted, it doesn't mean it's incoherent. It could very well be extreme use-error or lack of analytical/comprehension skills.
Yes, that must be it.

p.s. Federal "Design and Defect" Warranty has nothing to do at all with hybrids and EVs. It is pure coincidence that Tesla also has 8 year warranty. Federal law mandates only 3 major components that fall under this warranty: ECU, catalytic converter and OBD. Federal standard is 8 years and 80,000 miles.

Tesla picked 8 years because it looks good and Toyota picked 10 years because it is a nice big number as well. I guess because it is 8+2? What if it was 8+1? Or 8+4?

What I tried to explain is that car companies have warranties as marketing costs, it is not tied strictly to the actual reliability but rather marketing department decides what they need to offer to sell amount of cars they want to sell.

Your argument seems to be that you want to buy EV in next few years so you would like it to have 15 year warranty. That is not how it works.
 

Sulu

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I will try to explain product (including automobile) marketing. The first thing to understand is that marketing is an extra-cost expense; it adds absolutely no value to the product but since its costs must be recouped, it adds to the sale price of the product.

Marketing is a necessary evil, in its own perverse way. Its function is to attract buyers, which is especially important if the brand or the product has a negative reputation (no reputation, little reputation or bad reputation) on the market, but marketing has (much) less importance if the brand or the product has a positive reputation (good reputation) on the market.

This explains why Hyundai and Mitsubishi offered 10-year powertrain warranties in the USA, yet Toyota did not.

Hyundai and Mitsubishi had a bad reputation in the American automotive market, with a perception of selling cheap cars with poor reliability that you bought new but threw away after a few years, once the first wear-and-tear problems started to appear. Toyota, on the other hand, has long had a reputation for selling very reliable cars with high resale values on the used car market. The perception (true or not) was that Hyundai and Mitsubishi built and sold cars that you did not want to keep, and Toyota built and sold cars that you kept forever.

In an effort to overcome this negative reputation, Hyundai and Mitsubishi decided to offer 10-year powertrain warranties -- but not in all markets, only in the markets where their reputations were the worst. The hoped-for response from the buying public was "Wow, if Hyundai / Mitsubishi can offer 10-year warranties, they must be good (read "reliable") product; I should go have a look".

Yet, Toyota, which we know does build and sell cars and trucks that can easily last 10 years, stuck to their market-competitive warranties (no better and no worse than most other automakers, and much less than 10 years). We know that Toyota models such as the Corolla and Camry and RAV4 sell themselves; Toyota does not have to offer an original-equipment extended warranty to attract buyers. Since an extra-long warranty would cost Toyota money, yet offer absolutely no value to the models it sells (and may, in fact reduce sales, due to the resulting higher prices), Toyota does not offer an extra-long warranty.

If Toyota (or any other automaker) feels that it needs to offer a longer-than-market-norm warranty, it is doing so to overcome a bad perception or prove that it is much better than competitors (likely the case with Toyota's 10-year battery warranty), not because their product is so much more reliable.

One final thing to think about is the fact that reliability forecasting is far from a hard science. Reliability forecasting is based upon averages and probability. If Toyota were to claim that their new SSB lasts 30 years, it does not mean that every single battery Toyota makes will last 30 years; it means that the average life-span of all batteries built will PROBABLY last 30 years before failure, meaning that some batteries will last longer than 30 years BUT ALSO that some batteries will last (much) less than 30 years. And how can Toyota make an absolute claim of 30-year batteries if this is new technology only left the lab bench 2 years before the original on-sale date (i.e. how can Toyota truly claim that their batteries will last 30 years if the technology is only 2-years old)?
 
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