Lexus LF-1 Limitless Concept Megathread [LF Coming in 2023?]

[mikeavelli]

I’m also going to say this. Rarely when a new product comes does the competitors really suffer. Only for weak brands. The Germans and Lexus will be fine.
The NX was late to the party and it’s either #1-3 in sales. So I’m confident any late comer will be fine, especially if it’s a SUV.

 

[Porsche prints money]

I’m also going to say this. Rarely when a new product comes does the competitors really suffer. Only for weak brands. The Germans and Lexus will be fine.
The NX was late to the party and it’s either #1-3 in sales. So I’m confident any late comer will be fine, especially if it’s a SUV.

I agree the LF should sell well—never claimed it DOA as suggested. I just think EV adoption will accelerate more quickly than expected in the next few years, which might catch Toyota R&D on the back foot.

 

[CIF]

I don't know of a country "all-in on hydrogen", much less green hydrogen. Australia's "hydrogen road" to Japan calls for burning brown coal, which hardly sounds appealing. GM recently scrubbed its ill-advised investment in Nikola's vaporware, while state incentives & corporate fleets have maintained some hydrogen R&D by Asian automakers. The Europeans have all but abandoned hydrogen for light vehicles, even after decades of R&D. Hydrogen has its uses, but batteries simply suit passenger cars very well. Most folks in the industry do agree on this point. EVs have doubled their market share in European sales from 6.5% to 13.6% this year, a considerable percentage given the nascent rollout of EVs so far.

All I will add is that in the very early days of Toyota's hybrids when they debuted over 20 years ago, "most people in the industry" though that Toyota's hybrids would fail. How wrong they were. Don't be so sure about the future. If EVs fail for example, I wonder if folks like yourself in that moment will take a humble path and admit your pride and hubris were wrong. I'm personally not strictly anti-EV and pro-hydrogen. I believe a diverse array of powertrain choices for different world markets is the smartest way forward, which is what Toyota is doing. I very strongly disagree with countries, governments or automakers that are forcibly pushing EVs, and only EVs onto the market with no organic or natural consumer demand.

 

[Porsche prints money]

All I will add is that in the very early days of Toyota's hybrids when they debuted over 20 years ago, "most people in the industry" though that Toyota's hybrids would fail. How wrong they were. Don't be so sure about the future. If EVs fail for example, I wonder if folks like yourself in that moment will take a humble path and admit your pride and hubris were wrong. I'm personally not strictly anti-EV and pro-hydrogen. I believe a diverse array of powertrain choices for different world markets is the smartest way forward, which is what Toyota is doing. I very strongly disagree with countries, governments or automakers that are forcibly pushing EVs, and only EVs onto the market with no organic or natural consumer demand.

I would love hydrogen to prove me wrong—the fewer fossil fuels we burn, the better. Nobody in the industry knows how long green hydrogen will take to arrive on the market, however, much less cheap green hydrogen.

 

[mikeavelli]

All I will add is that in the very early days of Toyota's hybrids when they debuted over 20 years ago, "most people in the industry" though that Toyota's hybrids would fail. How wrong they were. Don't be so sure about the future. If EVs fail for example, I wonder if folks like yourself in that moment will take a humble path and admit your pride and hubris were wrong. I'm personally not strictly anti-EV and pro-hydrogen. I believe a diverse array of powertrain choices for different world markets is the smartest way forward, which is what Toyota is doing. I very strongly disagree with countries, governments or automakers that are forcibly pushing EVs, and only EVs onto the market with no organic or natural consumer demand.

Totally agree here.

 

[argh]

Wonder if we'll be seeing an improved Multi Stage system for the LF's base powertrain.

 

[ssun30]

One thing I noticed is its weight is only 2400kg. That's only 20kg heavier than a fully loaded LS500h AWD and is very light for a hybrid SUV this big. The Cayenne hybrid weighs 2350kg, RSQ8 weighs 2420kg, GLS AMG weighs over 2600kg, and these SUVs are all smaller. If they didn't do anything the LF-1 could weigh close to the 2700kg Land Cruiser so they have to find at least 300kg of weight reduction here and there. Maybe they are using full aluminum chassis and CFRP panels? This could explain its extreme price.

Also in previous rumors the LF-1 is smaller sub-5m full-size but in this one it has grown to full-size+. It's now larger than even the Sequoia?

This combined with rumors that the next Century will be a SUV sharing platform with LF-1, all point to the possibility that LF-1 will be placed considerably higher than current ”L" cars. With gigantic size, very high power, very expensive construction, this SUV could be targeting a demographic Lexus has never addressed before. Lexus has always had a reputation for unpretentious luxury, but in the world today more luxury buyers want to show excessive wealth and LF-1 might be the first major step they take. As an example in China Lexus has already transformed into a brand known for extreme mark-ups, the LF-1 could push it into a whole new level.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

One thing I noticed is its weight is only 2400kg. That's only 20kg heavier than a fully loaded LS500h AWD and is very light for a hybrid SUV this big. The Cayenne hybrid weighs 2350kg, RSQ8 weighs 2420kg, GLS AMG weighs over 2600kg, and these SUVs are all smaller. If they didn't do anything the LF-1 could weigh close to the 2700kg Land Cruiser so they have to find at least 300kg of weight reduction here and there. Maybe they are using full aluminum chassis and CFRP panels? This could explain its extreme price.

Also in previous rumors the LF-1 is smaller sub-5m full-size but in this one it has grown to full-size+. It's now larger than even the Sequoia?

This combined with rumors that the next Century will be a SUV sharing platform with LF-1, all point to the possibility that LF-1 will be placed considerably higher than current ”L" cars. With gigantic size, very high power, very expensive construction, this SUV could be targeting a demographic Lexus has never addressed before. Lexus has always had a reputation for unpretentious luxury, but in the world today more luxury buyers want to show excessive wealth and LF-1 might be the first major step they take. As an example in China Lexus has already transformed into a brand known for extreme mark-ups, the LF-1 could push it into a whole new level.

So, you've now decided that it's not DOA anymore?

 

[Porsche prints money]

So, you've now decided that it's not DOA anymore?

No, he noticed a couple interesting estimated figures. I highly doubt Lexus will introduce CFRP on a luxury SUV for cost reasons. Personally, I think Lexus will find competition very stiff with the likes of Aston Martin around the ¥20 million mark. Otherwise, Toyota would have graced us with the Century long ago. My best guess, either the estimated measurements & prices remain generous, or Lexus believes the model can justify a premium like the Land Cruiser.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

No, he noticed a couple interesting estimated figures. I highly doubt Lexus will introduce CFRP on a luxury SUV for cost reasons. Personally, I think Lexus will find competition very stiff with the likes of Aston Martin around the ¥20 million mark. Otherwise, Toyota would have graced us with the Century long ago. My best guess, either the measurements & price estimates remain generous, or Lexus believes the model can justify a premium like the Land Cruiser.

I'd have to agree on this. It doesn't make sense to introduce CRFP for this car at that price. Unless if it's an F model, then that's a different story.

As to your Aston-Martin point, despite me being a fan of their F1 team, Lexus spanked Aston-Martin with the LC500 and there is no argument about it. I wouldn't be surprised if Lexus' SUV also spanks the DBX.

 

[Porsche prints money]

Lexus spanked Aston-Martin with the LC500 and there is no argument about it. I wouldn't be surprised if Lexus' SUV also spanks the DBX.

Not in sales though, I believe. Initial sales for the DBX have exceeded Aston's expectations & taken market share from Bentley & Lamborghini. I would not compare the DBX, arguably Aston's most competitive offering in years, to the company's outdated coupes. Not much to complain about besides dated Merc infotainment, which Aston plans to refresh, thankfully. Funny enough, a common complaint regarding the DBX platform remains the lack of an EV version.

 

[Levi]

having a BEV on market now are 2 years later means nothing. those buying bevs are not price sensitive for now. should a better BEV come out will jump for the new one. Toyota has been quite on BEVs, when they'll come they'll just come because Toyota has no more time (5 years) for marketing as the Germans did. The offer from Germany is only now starting to build up, but that is far from any previous promises.

 

[Deusex]

Give me a SUV with more performance and new technology like Porsche e-hybrid or something else, or l will be a former customer of Lexus after 20 + years. Totally agree with you on the subject of the LF1, hell would buy it even with a pure petrol engine (v8 or turbo) as long it has more horepowers than my current RX 450h f-sport!

LOL, same like me. Have RX 450H-F and if Lexus doesn't release sportier SUV with more HP. Im leaving for Porsche or MB.

 

[Gecko]

Let's keep in mind this is still lots of speculation and sometimes the prices don't translate literally. $140k base price for an SUV based on the LS seems unrealistic to me -- it will not cost double. I assume Lexus would price it starting in the high $80k range up to ~$115k with options, and if there is to be an F model, sure, that could touch $130k as a halo model in a market that's crazy for CUVs.

I just don't see Lexus deciding to take on Aston Martin and Lamborghini right out of the gate with a hybrid V6. Nope.

 

[mikeavelli]

Let's keep in mind this is still lots of speculation and sometimes the prices don't translate literally. $140k base price for an SUV based on the LS seems unrealistic to me -- it will not cost double. I assume Lexus would price it starting in the high $80k range up to ~$115k with options, and if there is to be an F model, sure, that could touch $130k as a halo model in a market that's crazy for CUVs.

I just don't see Lexus deciding to take on Aston Martin and Lamborghini right out of the gate with a hybrid V6. Nope.

the thing to me is. It won’t matter. People want SUVs they want suv coupes they buy any Lexus suv no question asked. Price rarely matters. Hell we got 110k Escalades now.

So for me it’s all a moot point. I’m just excited to see it revealed!

 

[ssun30]

So, you've now decided that it's not DOA anymore?

Never said it was DOA. Just not an 'exciting product' to my taste, but I won't be part of its target demographics anyway.

I just think EV adoption will accelerate more quickly than expected in the next few years, which might catch Toyota R&D on the back foot.

Which company do you think has the most R&D budget and IP related to EV? Hint: it's from Japan.

Technology development and adoption are two very different matters. The world's supply chain is not ready for a low-10s EV adoption in this decade. One REE embargo from China and the entire world's EV industry will collapse overnight; that's how fragile the supply chain is.

 

[Porsche prints money]

Which company do you think has the most R&D budget and IP related to EV? Hint: it's from Japan.

Technology development and adoption are two very different matters. The world's supply chain is not ready for a low-10s EV adoption in this decade. One REE embargo from China and the entire world's EV industry will collapse overnight; that's how fragile the supply chain is.

VW & Daimler, by a mile. $85 billion each for VW & Daimler over the next five years, $13 billion for Toyota over the next 10 years, per recent reports. EVs already account for more than 13% of sales in Europe, despite the very early rollout. Regarding Chinese REEs, the West remains worried about dependent military supply chains, not EVs. An embargo makes little political or economic sense for the CCP, barring open conflict, at which point EVs remain the least of our worries. In any case, US & Europe have already invested billions of dollars in diversifying REE processing away from China, which leads due to lax environmental standards, not technical prowess nor geographical assets.

 

[CRSKTN]

VW & Daimler, by a mile. $85 billion each for VW & Daimler over the next five years, $13 billion for Toyota over the next 10 years, per recent reports. EVs already account for more than 13% of sales in Europe, despite the very early rollout. Regarding Chinese REEs, the West remains worried about dependent military supply chains, not EVs. An embargo makes little political or economic sense for the CCP, barring open conflict, at which point EVs remain the least of our worries. In any case, US & Europe have already invested billions of dollars in diversifying REE processing away from China, which leads due to lax environmental standards, not technical prowess nor geographical assets.

No.

Sorry.

You don't (most people dont) have visibility to the true R&D spend these companies have dedicated to these, and TMC has been at it longer than nearly anyone.

Unless you have disclosures around the JVs and JDAs these companies silently enter, you have no idea what they are spending on this stuff, or how they are quietly funding it.

 

[Porsche prints money]

No.

Sorry.

You don't (most people dont) have visibility to the true R&D spend these companies have dedicated to these, and TMC has been at it longer than nearly anyone.

Unless you have disclosures around the JVs and JDAs these companies silently enter, you have no idea what they are spending on this stuff, or how they are quietly funding it.

For private companies, yes. For public companies, financial statements, disclosures & reporting don't lie. I expect Toyota will invest more than $13 billion over 10 years in EV R&D, but I would not discount the pledge as misleading, in part due to securities regulations.

 

[CRSKTN]

For private companies, yes. For public companies, financial statements, disclosures & reporting don't lie. I expect Toyota will invest more than $13 billion over 10 years in EV R&D, but I would not discount the pledge as misleading, in part due to securities regulations.

I am literally an investment banker who raises funds, organizes strategic investments, and does M&A in this space. What do you think material nonpublic information is?

Management forecasts are complicated. You're reading into numbers when you don't have the thinking or methodology behind them. Anything they disclose has a methodology, including how they quantify that estimate, and whether it includes unannounced efforts. The point of that number is to show TMC is taking it seriously. Nobody is going to give their competitors a true and clear view of their war plans.

What do they include in that number? How do they choose to quantify their non cash contributions to their R&D projects? Does it include direct investment only, or are JV/JDAs through subs or partner Co's with technology sharing agreements included too?

The fact you think public disclosures are all encompassing in their granularity, says it all.

Public disclosures are only as transparent as the regulator requires, and auditors will only do so much (which isn't much).

These companies don't even allow their name or a broad description of them to be used in press releases of partner companies trying to promote their big deals newly landed. All that stuff is obfuscated intentionally.