ssun30

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The new 2021 Sienna is superb. Makes me wonder what a Lexus version could be.
I think it's quite possible the next LM become Sienna based. 80-90% of the sales will be for China, and the size of the Sienna is not a problem at all since the larger GL8 could navigate most tight spaces. What dealers want has always been a GL8-size van not an Alphard rebadge. In fact the Alphard is too tall to fit in some underground parking lots making it less maneuverable than the Sienna.

The Alphard LM only allows for a spacious 4-seat config, or a tight 7-seat config. What is requested is a spacious 6-seat config so business people don't have to bring another car to squeeze their aide into.
 

spwolf

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I think it's quite possible the next LM become Sienna based. 80-90% of the sales will be for China, and the size of the Sienna is not a problem at all since the larger GL8 could navigate most tight spaces. What dealers want has always been a GL8-size van not an Alphard rebadge. In fact the Alphard is too tall to fit in some underground parking lots making it less maneuverable than the Sienna.

The Alphard LM only allows for a spacious 4-seat config, or a tight 7-seat config. What is requested is a spacious 6-seat config so business people don't have to bring another car to squeeze their aide into.
I doubt it though, usually built for US TMC models are cheaper since they need to be sold for lower price. IE Alphard is already pretty expensive vehicle, Sienna is not. I think average Alphard price is around $50k, and it goes up to $75k, while Sienna is going to be sold at $10k less on average.

Plus, this is only important vehicle for Asian markets, they will want narrower LM so they can sell it in Japan as well.
 

spwolf

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I wonder if they will actually try selling Sienna in some world markets where Alphard is a bit too expensive.
It would then make sense it is hybrid only since they can sell hybrid anywhere.

However, interior is still a little bit too plasticky for lets say European tastes.

For instance top grade looks good here:



but back seat does not



I might be picky, but so will be other Europeans.
 

Joaquin Ruhi

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I think it's quite possible the next LM become Sienna based. 80-90% of the sales will be for China, and the size of the Sienna is not a problem at all since the larger GL8 could navigate most tight spaces. What dealers want has always been a GL8-size van not an Alphard rebadge. In fact the Alphard is too tall to fit in some underground parking lots making it less maneuverable than the Sienna.

The Alphard LM only allows for a spacious 4-seat config, or a tight 7-seat config. What is requested is a spacious 6-seat config so business people don't have to bring another car to squeeze their aide into.
I'm predicting a variant of this scenario: Next-generation Alphard/Vellfire (due in 2021 or maybe 2022) will essentially be a narrower and perhaps shorter version of the new Sienna, much as the relationship between Mazda CX-8 (sold in Japan, China and Oceania) and CX-9 (North America) large crossovers, or between the last failed North America Nissan Quest minivan and its narrower Elgrand JDM counterpart. Whether 2nd-gen Lexus LM is "narrow" or "wide" is an open question.

I'm also going to venture a guess that the Alphard/Vellfire duality for the next generation will happen only in China (to feed both GAC and FAW). By that time, Toyota in Japan should start consolidating its 4 separate dealer network thus eliminating the need for (probably) Vellfire there.
 

spwolf

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I'm predicting a variant of this scenario: Next-generation Alphard/Vellfire (due in 2021 or maybe 2022) will essentially be a narrower and perhaps shorter version of the new Sienna, much as the relationship between Mazda CX-8 (sold in Japan, China and Oceania) and CX-9 (North America) large crossovers, or between the last failed North America Nissan Quest minivan and its narrower Elgrand JDM counterpart. Whether 2nd-gen Lexus LM is "narrow" or "wide" is an open question.

I'm also going to venture a guess that the Alphard/Vellfire duality for the next generation will happen only in China (to feed both GAC and FAW). By that time, Toyota in Japan should start consolidating its 4 separate dealer network thus eliminating the need for (probably) Vellfire there.
Consolidation of network is already done.

I am sure Alphard and Sienna will share TNGA platform with 50 other Toyota vehicles, but Alphard will certainly not be narrow Sienna.

Lexus LM will always be based on Japanese Alphard (hopefully next version less so), since their targeted markets are Asian, just like Alphard.

Basically we are talking about Tacoma vs Hilux thing here, and Tacoma will always be Tacoma, since NA has unique requirements (cheaper, bigger) than rest of the world.
 

ssun30

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Also don't forget Alphard necessarily needs to be very tall to function as an accessibility vehicle.
The reason I believe LM doesn't need to be Alphard-based is that JDM doesn't really need it. LM is mostly a single market product, and for that specific market a Sienna-size MPV has always been requested.
 

spwolf

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Also don't forget Alphard necessarily needs to be very tall to function as an accessibility vehicle.
The reason I believe LM doesn't need to be Alphard-based is that JDM doesn't really need it. LM is mostly a single market product, and for that specific market a Sienna-size MPV has always been requested.
I am pretty sure LM will do great in JDM as well, and everywhere where Alphard does well.
They just want to make it more distinct with next generation.
 

shizhi

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The next generation LM is definitely based on Alaphard.
The birth of LM is obviously due to the achievements of Alaphard in the Chinese market. Without Alaphard's foundation, the Chinese would not consider LM as a flagship model. Although Sienna has not been officially introduced into China by Toyota, there have always been imported from the United States, so the Chinese obviously know the difference between Sienna and Alaphard. They will not recognize that the Lexus flagship car is based on a Toyota prototype car that has no symbolic meaning, while Alaphard is totally different.If Toyota want to build a Lexus MPV based on Sienna, it should be called "EM" or "RM".
This is an image made by Chinese media, a Lexus MPV based on Sienna.
238E1A3F-4BFF-4485-B083-22B0C6482D39.jpeg
 
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ssun30

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I didn't consider the fact that the Sienna will only be built locally in USA and China. All ChDM Lexus will be strictly made in Japan only so no Sienna LM.
 
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It would sell very well in the US, in my opinion. So many Sienna's on the road. This would be a game changer and also challenge the Sprinter market!
 

suxeL

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While the design really pops, I heavily doubt a large enough market exists for an uber luxury Sienna in the Lexus lineup.
 

ssun30

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The insanity with markups is another level for the LM. These numbers are parallel imports, for those impatient to wait in lines.

4048

7-seat variant. MSRP ¥1.166M ($165k), Markup ¥500k ($71k), OTD price ¥1.666M ($235k)
4-seat variant. MSRP ¥1.466M ($207k), Markup ¥1M ($141k), OTD price ¥2.466M ($350k)
So the LM is now as expensive as the LFA.

Markup for official Lexus dealers is now up to ¥600k ($90k) in high-demand areas like Guangdong. The highest recorded so far is ¥4M OTD ($565k). A lot of people may be willing to pay ¥1.666M because it's a very good number (successive 6s in Chinese mean good health/family/business). In my area the 4-seat variant is not available while the 7-seat asks around ¥1.5M OTD. Meanwhile they have a ¥100k markdown for the LS500h executive package with Kiriko glass bringing it to less than ¥1M. So the OTD price of the best LS is less than the markup for the LM

This guy doesn't care he just crashed something as expensive as the LFA. Proof that these people pay ridiculous money for a 161hp minivan 'because they can'.
4050
 

CRSKTN

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This is a sign of a peak bubble market. When wealth becomes too concentrated, it becomes volatile in its deployment and unreliable. One of the big issues we have now is a lot of very wealthy people turning off the taps because they are risk averse or want to retire, and we are seeing funding dry up for new companies for no good reason.

Eg if you were planning to be a dentist in north America, things have recently gotten worse, and when people realize how many practices arent coming back, reality will start to set in.

Ignore wall st. Looking at the indices, you'd forget we have great depression shaming levels of unemployment.

If you have people paying that kind of money for something they can crash and not care about, in a place with the poverty of China for most people, your system of capital distribution has failed your economy.

/rant about why we need a wealth tax to force reinvestment of assets.
 

Rydo

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This is a sign of a peak bubble market. When wealth becomes too concentrated, it becomes volatile in its deployment and unreliable. One of the big issues we have now is a lot of very wealthy people turning off the taps because they are risk averse or want to retire, and we are seeing funding dry up for new companies for no good reason.

Eg if you were planning to be a dentist in north America, things have recently gotten worse, and when people realize how many practices arent coming back, reality will start to set in.

Ignore wall st. Looking at the indices, you'd forget we have great depression shaming levels of unemployment.

If you have people paying that kind of money for something they can crash and not care about, in a place with the poverty of China for most people, your system of capital distribution has failed your economy.

/rant about why we need a wealth tax to force reinvestment of assets.
The problems with a wealth tax in the UK - is that it has two detrimental effects.

1. The wealthy simply register their money offshore - so now there is effectively nothing entering into the government's coffers.
2. The wealthy choose to conduct business. elsewhere entirely.

There is always a huge push to tax the wealthy in the UK, currently anyone over £45k I think is taxed 40% of their income!, but like I say, these people find ways around that or simply ditch the country altogether

Anyway, back to the LM. I saw this guy post the photo on the Chinese-language LM Facebook group the other day - posing with the thumb up. Anyone who can walk away from such an intense headache like crashing a quarter mill $ car and just pose for a photo with their thumb up clearly has more money than sense.

It really does make me sad how expensive these things are because I'd love one for my future family someday - they are just so much more versatile and cool than an SUV. I do feel that if Lexus were to release the next-gen in Japan, surely the pricing would still be ridiculous - or else the Chinese market would just go about importing the Japanese model (despite the obvious LHD/RHD inconvenience). Maybe that's a stupid thing to say - I'm not really aware of the importing cars rules and taxes in China at all. Maybe @ssun30 could clear that up?
 

shizhi

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The problems with a wealth tax in the UK - is that it has two detrimental effects.

1. The wealthy simply register their money offshore - so now there is effectively nothing entering into the government's coffers.
2. The wealthy choose to conduct business. elsewhere entirely.

There is always a huge push to tax the wealthy in the UK, currently anyone over £45k I think is taxed 40% of their income!, but like I say, these people find ways around that or simply ditch the country altogether

Anyway, back to the LM. I saw this guy post the photo on the Chinese-language LM Facebook group the other day - posing with the thumb up. Anyone who can walk away from such an intense headache like crashing a quarter mill $ car and just pose for a photo with their thumb up clearly has more money than sense.

It really does make me sad how expensive these things are because I'd love one for my future family someday - they are just so much more versatile and cool than an SUV. I do feel that if Lexus were to release the next-gen in Japan, surely the pricing would still be ridiculous - or else the Chinese market would just go about importing the Japanese model (despite the obvious LHD/RHD inconvenience). Maybe that's a stupid thing to say - I'm not really aware of the importing cars rules and taxes in China at all. Maybe @ssun30 could clear that up?
In China, the car includes value-added tax, consumption tax (the rate based on the exhaust volume), and purchase tax after purchase. The tariff rate of imported car is 15%. For those with invoice price of more than 1.469 million yuan, the purchase tax needs to be paid twice (the extra one is called luxury car tax).
LM is priced at just under 1.469 million in China, so the rich don't need to pay an extra tax to the government.
However, this will not reduce the amount they pay for the purchase of LM, except that the object of payment has changed from the government to the dealer.
This accident seems to be LM's first accident in China, so for the car owner to get such a "first" experience, has satisfied his purpose of purchasing LM,
Yes, he has money,a lot of money.
 

CRSKTN

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The problems with a wealth tax in the UK - is that it has two detrimental effects.

1. The wealthy simply register their money offshore - so now there is effectively nothing entering into the government's coffers.
2. The wealthy choose to conduct business. elsewhere entirely.
You've been lied to. I specialized in analyzing international fiscal and tax regimes for a specific purpose in the past. You think countries can work together to find terrorist leadership in a bunker in the middle east, but you can't start a global pact amongst powers to be punitive towards fleeing capital. It already exists in some forms. The magnitsky act already shows us to some extent what they can do.

Anyways, offtopic, but you're repeating talking points from the same people who want to avoid their taxes.
 

shizhi

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Lexus should not sell LM in the market where alaphard has not been sold. The L of LM comes from the Chinese market's enthusiasm for alaphard. Toyota just changed Alaphard with Lexus appearance,the interior is not redesign. The seven seat LM is almost the same as alaphard's, but if the transaction price is calculated, LM may be nearly twice as high as alaphard's. Obviously, the price is crazy. The value of the separated product itself. Chinese consumers give LM extra value, which will not be recognized by other markets.
So if new Alaphard is still designed and sold for Japan and East Asia, LM will not enter other markets.
 

suxeL

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This is a sign of a peak bubble market. When wealth becomes too concentrated, it becomes volatile in its deployment and unreliable. One of the big issues we have now is a lot of very wealthy people turning off the taps because they are risk averse or want to retire, and we are seeing funding dry up for new companies for no good reason.

Eg if you were planning to be a dentist in north America, things have recently gotten worse, and when people realize how many practices arent coming back, reality will start to set in.

Ignore wall st. Looking at the indices, you'd forget we have great depression shaming levels of unemployment.

If you have people paying that kind of money for something they can crash and not care about, in a place with the poverty of China for most people, your system of capital distribution has failed your economy.

/rant about why we need a wealth tax to force reinvestment of assets.
But but my favorite news source told me V-SHAPED RECOVERY, unemployment numbers are down*, stocks only go up...


*conditions apply
 
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spwolf

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Lexus should not sell LM in the market where alaphard has not been sold. The L of LM comes from the Chinese market's enthusiasm for alaphard. Toyota just changed Alaphard with Lexus appearance,the interior is not redesign. The seven seat LM is almost the same as alaphard's, but if the transaction price is calculated, LM may be nearly twice as high as alaphard's. Obviously, the price is crazy. The value of the separated product itself. Chinese consumers give LM extra value, which will not be recognized by other markets.
So if new Alaphard is still designed and sold for Japan and East Asia, LM will not enter other markets.
I dont think that will significantly change in the future. I dont see European or US customers finding a large value in 100k minivan. But who knows.
 

Levi

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There is use for the LM in Europe, like the Mercedes V Class that is used as a luxury person carrier. But again the same German vs foreign arguments will be made, and even then the VIP V Class market is small. Even the great R Class failed, and has only continued sales in China. A shame Mercedes did not make a new generation for China at least. Even the 5GT was not such a success, it got 'upgraded' to 6GT, but who knows if there will be a new one, the 3GT got discountinued. Only the 4GC continues, this time even as M4, because 2 doors are simply dead, even at BMW, but that is another topic.
 
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