Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[bogglo]

The good and bad thing about the F cars is that due to all of them having only one generation they hold there value pretty well after the initial depreciation. but the down side to that is it makes it hard to justify buying a used on at that price if you have a newer car with almost the same performance.

I am still 85% sure there is going to be a new V8 engine for Lexus/Toyota.

 

[Airplane]

It's been an interesting few weeks with trademarks and model news. One of my theories on the state of Lexus has been that Akio needed to get Toyota together as his primary point of focus, and hopefully that momentum would later shift to Lexus for an overhaul.

I'm beginning to think an overhaul may be coming indeed. Following upcoming model changes, rumors and trademarks, it seems like we could have the following over just the next 3 years:

• Refreshed UX
• All-new NX: plugins, hybrids, turbo 4
• All-new RX: probably same as above + 500h model
• All-new TX model: Replacing RX-L (this is a HUGE opportunity for Lexus they have essentially just left for Acura and Infiniti)
• All-new GX
• All-new LX
• All-new LF-1 production model
• All-new RZ model: hypothetical midsize CUV coupe with electric powertrains
• IS F/IS 500
• Refreshed ES
• New/heavy refreshed LS

Of course I am tempering expectations, but the above seems pretty realistic to me... which is also very exciting. 😯

You know what’s missing there? LCF!😭

 

[Will1991]

Toyota is set to present 10 BEV models by 2020 (perhaps 2021 due to Covid-19) worldwide, I think we currently have:
-> UX300e
-> CHR
-> IZOA
-> GAC Aion S "twin brother"
-> Ultra Compact BEV

This means they should be displaying 5 more in the next few months (if I haven't missed any model).

They also want to expand the PHEV line up:
-> Prius Prime
-> Rav4 Prime
-> ChDM Corolla PHEV

And is looking to introduce SSB by around 2023!

I still think Toyota is a bit shy on BEV sales numbers...

 

[shizhi]

Toyota is set to present 10 BEV models by 2020 (perhaps 2021 due to Covid-19) worldwide, I think we currently have:
-> UX300e
-> CHR
-> IZOA
-> GAC Aion S "twin brother"
-> Ultra Compact BEV

This means they should be displaying 5 more in the next few months (if I haven't missed any model).

They also want to expand the PHEV line up:
-> Prius Prime
-> Rav4 Prime
-> ChDM Corolla PHEV

And is looking to introduce SSB by around 2023!

I still think Toyota is a bit shy on BEV sales numbers...

I think this picture is not accurate. Toyota has always emphasized that by 2025, more than 10 BEVs will be released. And the timing of the sales target has been advanced from 2030 to 2025.
We have only obtained CHR/IZOA/UXe & Ultra compact BEV now, and there are 6 unreleased models based on e-TNGA, one Lexus model "RZ450e", and two BEVs in China that cooperate with BYD.FAW Toyota will launch a BEV SUV, but it is not clear whether it will be in the above models.
The GAC Aion s twin cannot be regarded as a Toyota model. It is only produced at GAC Toyota's factory, but it does not have the Toyota logo on it. Instead, it uses the GAC logo.
In addition, according to the global August sales data released by Toyota. As of August, they have only sold 1,614 BEVs this year. Since Toyota's BEV has not yet been listed in other markets, this data is entirely from the Chinese market.
So it is really hard to imagine how to increase the sales of BEV&FCEV to 1 million in the next 5 years.

 

[Will1991]

Was really expecting an higher take rate for the BEV's in China... In your opinion, what's the reason for so few sales?

 

[internalaudit]

Probably those thermal runaways in Chinese-partnered BEVs that Ssun had mentioned about a month ago.

Toyota is definitely not pushing BEV sales until they get the battery technology correct. I love that @Will1991 did post about Toyota wanting the batteries to last as long as the chassis (20+ years). That would be awesome.

I can probably wait until 2027, maybe by then my wife will have retired early and I don't need a longer range (250 km winter-range) BEV haha.

 

[spwolf]

Probably those thermal runaways in Chinese-partnered BEVs that Ssun had mentioned about a month ago.

Toyota is definitely not pushing BEV sales until they get the battery technology correct. I love that @Will1991 did post about Toyota wanting the batteries to last as long as the chassis (20+ years). That would be awesome.

I can probably wait until 2027, maybe by then my wife will have retired early and I don't need a longer range (250 km winter-range) BEV haha.

everyone will have bunch of BEVs in next 2-3 years, including Toyota.
Things will start moving quicker and quicker.

 

[larryren]

Was really expecting an higher take rate for the BEV's in China... In your opinion, what's the reason for so few sales?

It higher price than Chinese brand, and less range than the Chinese brand is biggest problem of Toyota's BEV.

It very few people will spending over 230k(≈33k USD) CNY to buy a C-HR EV/IZOA EV. The ChDM Camry/Avalon Hybrid MSRP it just near 240k(≈35k USD). Without worry the battery capacity for long range travel, refuel more easier than charging. If asking someone opinion for BEV Brothers, I think most people will answer "It also bigger than C-HR/IZOA and more luxury. Why I need buy only 400km recharge mileage small SUV?"

 

[ssun30]

Was really expecting an higher take rate for the BEV's in China... In your opinion, what's the reason for so few sales?

They sold 62 Izoa EVs last month. UX300e numbers don't even show up on charts (so I guess single digit). The reason is very simple: Toyota refuses to sell below cost (which is what EVERYONE is doing). All their NEVs (including the Corolla/Levin PHV) are intentionally priced high to sell as few units as possible do minimize loss. At Toyota no product is allowed to be sold at a loss. They intentionally want their early NEV products to fail (in terms of sales volume).

There is literally zero reason to buy a C-HR EV/Izoa EV because the specs are just way too bad for the price. UX300e is even worse because it's not eligible for NEV subsidies.

Probably those thermal runaways in Chinese-partnered BEVs that Ssun had mentioned about a month ago.

It has nothing to do with overheating NCM811 batteries. The Aion S despite its poor safety record is actually the second best selling NEV in China at ~5k/mo, because the paper specs are just so impressive. The iA5 is again intentionally priced high so there's no reason to buy it. Most NEV buyers at this point are buying specs, not quality and reliabiilty as Toyota had hoped.

Also here's a reminder that Lexus promised two new HV/PHV, including an E-Axle equipped model this year. So far they've delivered zero and there's no more large auto show to launch these. They did not bring anything new to the recent Beijing Motor Show.

 

[Will1991]

Hi guys,

Why not get every future launch in one place?

I've done this table:



For engine options, it's trademarks only.

It should be this right? Do anyone see anything wrong?

 

[Sulu]

@Will1991, thanks for this. Laying it out this way gives us some "what-ifs"...

If we get a NX 350h Hybrid (assuming with the Highlander's more-powerful hybrid system), could we not get the same powertrain in the ES, giving us an ES 350h Hybrid?

 

[James]

@Will1991 is your time table is right I'm gone for sure. 2021 looks to be very disappointing. No LX or LF1 next year? Ugh.

But thank you for doing this it is great to have in one place on predictions for all models and not have to go from thread to thread. I hope you're wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if your time line is correct...

 

[ssun30]

@Will1991, thanks for this. Laying it out this way gives us some "what-ifs"...

If we get a NX 350h Hybrid (assuming with the Highlander's more-powerful hybrid system), could we not get the same powertrain in the ES, giving us an ES 350h Hybrid?

No, 1) they are too lazy to do that 2) there may be packaging issues.

 

[maiaramdan]

@ssun30 , I agree
In paper due to low hood , every sedan , coupe & wagon engine/transmission can be for in CUV / SUV , but not always the other way to find every CUV / SUV fit in the sedan / coupe / wagon

 

[Will1991]

@Sulu , we still haven’t got any indication of any other powertrain besides the e-axle prototype information, without any real timeline... In my opinion, if we were going to get a more powerful hybrid ES, it would be an 350h with E-Four engine but since we’ve got the ES250 AWD... Let’s hope the facelift will bring more news than we expect.

@James , LX just got a small nip and tuck, in my opinion it has been done to go more 18~24 months. Also, regarding latest rumors (see the link I’ve posted in the LX thread )LC300 is a late 2021 news. As for the LF-1, I still don’t know what to call it...
LQ is a Toyota trademark, it might be LBX but it doesn’t have any of the typical numerical values and we haven’t seen any new rumor lately... Lexus is keeping it very close.

 

[Sulu]

No, 1) they are too lazy to do that 2) there may be packaging issues.

Just curious... Are there dimensional differences between the hybrid powertrain in the ES and the one in the Highlander?

 

[Sulu]

@Sulu , we still haven’t got any indication of any other powertrain besides the e-axle prototype information, without any real timeline... In my opinion, if we were going to get a more powerful hybrid ES, it would be an 350h with E-Four engine but since we’ve got the ES250 AWD... Let’s hope the facelift will bring more news than we expect.

It was merely a hypothetical "what-if" on my part, along the lines of "If Toyota could put AWD on the Camry, why not do it for the ES [which obviously they did]?".

 

[Gecko]

It's not Lexus, but Lexus-related: Mazda dropped details on their rumored, forthcoming "large" range of vehicles, and they are NOT RWD as some expected. Two things off the top of my head:

1) Mazda won't be using GA-L or GA-N, Toyota's premium RWD platforms
2) Rumors of a RWD, Mazda-shared RC and IS must be dead

Mazda reveals inline six engines and mild hybrid four-cylinder engines destined for 2022 Mazda 6

48-volt mild hybrid, plug-in hybrid, petrol, diesel and SkyActiv-X versions confirmed for future powertrain strategy.

www.caradvice.com.au

 

[ssun30]

It's not Lexus, but Lexus-related: Mazda dropped details on their rumored, forthcoming "large" range of vehicles, and they are NOT RWD as some expected. Two things off the top of my head:

1) Mazda won't be using GA-L or GA-N, Toyota's premium RWD platforms
2) Rumors of a RWD, Mazda-shared RC and IS must be dead

Mazda reveals inline six engines and mild hybrid four-cylinder engines destined for 2022 Mazda 6

48-volt mild hybrid, plug-in hybrid, petrol, diesel and SkyActiv-X versions confirmed for future powertrain strategy.

www.caradvice.com.au

The Crown sedan is discontinued after 2022 and the successor will be based on GA-K, which means GA-N is officially dead as well. So Mazda must have developed its own platform.

 

[James]

Is there any news on anything? NX release date? LX release date? LF1 coming at all? Anything new for Lexus next year? Anything to look forward to?