Will1991
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I am quoting from different thread as answer is more appropriate here.
In 2021, for average fleet emissions over 95g/100km, manufacturer will pay 95€ per g per vehicle.
IS300h has WLTP CO2 emissions of 133-144g. So lets say they bring this down to 125g/100km for 2021 model, that would be 30g/100km over minimum fleet average.
That basically means that Lexus would have to pay extra $3200 in penalties for each new IS300h sold in Europe from 2021.
Now yes, UX300e and NX450h will bring this average down, but I am sure they will want to use those "credits" for much more profitable vehicles such as RX450h and NX300h.
It's not so easy, EU regulations are a bit... Tricky... Because they're weight sensitive, so BMW/Bentley will have a higher target than say, Opel/Fiat...
For 2020, to get the "real" emissions for a car you have to do this:
CO2 = 95 + a · (M – M0) (With, M = Mass in running order of the vehicle in kilograms (kg), M0 = 1 379,88 a = 0,0333 )
And only 95% of each manufacturer's new passenger cars registered in the relevant year shall be taken into account, the rest 5% are not taken into account (Top polluters).
For 2021, WLTP specific emissions reference target = WLTPCO2 * ( NEDC2020target / NEDCCO2)
WLTPCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDCCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDC2020target is the 2020 specific emissions target calculated
From 2021-2024, Specific emissions target = WLTPreference target + a [(Mø – M0) – (Mø2020 – M0,2020)]
WLTPreference target is the 2021 WLTP specific emissions reference target calculated
a is 0,0333;
Mø is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in the relevant target year in kilograms (kg);
M0 is 1 379,88 in 2021, and as defined in point (a) of Article 14(1) for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024
Mø2020 is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in 2020 in kilograms (kg);
M0,2020 is 1 379,88.
Then you have "Super-Credits"...
In calculating the average specific emissions of CO2, each new passenger car with specific emissions of CO2 of less than 50 g CO2/km shall be counted as:
— 2 passenger cars in 2020,
— 1,67 passenger cars in 2021,
— 1,33 passenger cars in 2022,
— 1 passenger car from 2023.
And for the year in which it is registered in the period from 2020 to 2022, subject to a cap of 7,5 g CO2/km over that period for each manufacturer.
Also, if Lexus really wanted to push IS for Europe, it wouldn't be hard (emissions wise) since they could pool with Toyota to lower CO2 average... This also led me to believe this older hybrid system generation isn't going to be upgraded and isn't compatible with the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations coming into 2021 (bye bye IS300h and CT200h)...
Another example to turn this idea (of older generation hybrid powertrains not being upgradable) is Europe getting the new Highlander, to replace the Prius+/V running the older system...
And Lexus isn't strugling with emissions average for Europe, all the rumors point for a IS BEV for 2023... When super-credits and inovations credits runs out...
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