To me it would make sense. For a few years now I have been convinced the 5LS has been on a special development cycle, that only compares to the LFA and original 1LS development cycles. I am definitely convinced Toyota has had 5LS mules running around for at least 4-5 years already. In regular Lexus development cycles, this is unprecedented. Of course, the 1LS and LFA development cycles were also unprecedented. If the 5LS comes close to being as significant as the 1LS and LFA, then such a long development cycle makes sense. Combined with delays that developed, it all makes too much sense. This would fit the timeline that some senior dealership insiders and company personnel were shown the 5LS itself in 2014. For the 5LS to have been shown in 2014, certainly Toyota must have had mules by 2013 at the latest running around, but I can certainly believe they had mules since 2012.
In contrast, the seemingly short LC development cycle is highly puzzling. The LC is also a prestige product, certainly not entry-level. It puzzles me why the development cycle was so short...if you believe the official Toyota narrative. However I am starting to have some serious doubts. There's no way Toyota can maintain their Lexus levels of quality and reliability on the LC with such a short development cycle if they started development only after the LF-LC concept got such great reception. It also makes no sense because historically all Lexus concepts simply preview coming products models, and are usually 'made in reverse', deriving the concepts from the production vehicles themselves. So I have serious doubts about Toyota's official story of the LC development. I think in reality, two things went on here. First off, I think LC development started well before the LF-LC concept even debuted. Secondly, I believe the 5LS team had already done some significant work on the GA-L platform that benefited the LC team.
Combined with the information you've mentioned, I think the 5LS has been in development proper since at least 2010. I think originally early development may have started in 2008 or 2009, but was cancelled or scrapped by Akio Toyoda and development re-started on a more ambitious 5LS around late 2009/early 2010, with the early scrapped development ideas going into the 4LS 2012 refresh. I have for quite a while now firmly believed that 5LS early development started well before 2010, was deemed not good enough by Akio Toyoda, and was then scrapped and development restarted for a more ambitious 5LS, with the leftover scrapped ideas going into that 2012 refresh.
This would fit very well, the timeline of LC development, the idea that the LC was already being developed when the LF-LC concept debuted. It would also match the idea that by the time of the LF-LC debut, some significant development on the GA-L platform had been already done by the 5LS team, which aided the LC team. Finally all of this would tie into the delays that affected the 5LS, leading us to where we are today.
To me, that all makes much more sense than any official Toyota PR narratives or stories.
Wow, what a post! I have to say as well, I cannot believe Toyota's narrative either on the LC. An LC coupe was being rumoured back in 2010, several months after SC430 production ended in July and while the LF-LC was in development (since May). I believe that early work on a production version of the LC had to have been underway in 2011. I remember that Toyota had developed a 3rd generation SC to some degree, eventually scrapping it around 2009-10. What became of that?
Anything LC as a whole, entered development with an advanced design phase at Calty in Newport in May 2010. To make such a decision during a crisis and while the LFA was in pre-production, there was clearly a production basis in place already for the LC in 2010-11. The problem was getting proper engineering behind it, establishing general feasibility, or presenting a good business case for it. Koji Sato has given me the impression that the 950A programme entered engineering-supported development by the end of 2011, some 15-18 months after the LF-LC project started.
The production car was already in development by the time the concept was unveiled in 2012, as Sato gave that away. The new GA-L architecture is very much what held it back, as well as some other things that I can't quite pinpoint right now.
The current LS went into development in the autumn of 2001, a little over a year after the 3rd generation LS began production in mid-2000. By early spring of 2002, the LS430 facelift had been frozen and later introduced in September 2003. By the end of 2003, final styling was decided on. Development started essentially 5 years ahead of launch in September 2006. A 2008 to 2013 development window for the fifth generation was likely on the table in 2007, but canned in 2009-10. One has wonder how the crash during 2008-09 affected early development efforts.
If they started work on a redesign in 2008, by 2010 final styling decisions would be underway. The MY2010 LS was already being shown to insiders in the summer of 2008, as fully built prototypes, being likely set in stone by early 2008. The final LFA design at the time (in mid-2008) had just been frozen, that only photography was shown of it and not a running prototype like the 2010 LS. One has an idea how long the gestation process for a facelift is versus a full model change.
The amount of changes on the MY13 LS were so significant, that 20-24 months was required ahead of October 2012 launch to commit to such major revisions. To even work on proposals for such changes beforehand, would take several months on top of that, stretching things back to late 2009-early 2010. Toyoda made this decision either after his ascension in the summer of 2009 or while dealing with the recall crisis in early 2010. The LC followed closely, but execution of these two has proven to be very difficult. The 950A LC did not take only 4 years to develop, but 6 years total instead. The 200B LS might have taken 7 years minimum by the end of development in 2017.
I may not be able to 100% prove that right now, but with time that will come together in sources and truthful interviews with Lexus personnel. Koji Sato was already (quietly) working on the 950A LC by September 2011, while conducting interviews with people about the newly introduced 4GS on the surface, which he worked on as early as 2007. The styling was probably frozen in June 2014.
The 200B project leader is a mystery, but likely a familiar face from previous Lexus projects. Maybe Haruhiko Tanahashi? LFA ended development, possibly as he took over another big project.
It's been widely observed that the LWB 4LS has more natural proportions than the SWB, so maybe Lexus *has* done that.
It does look nice, but I have not really seen that observed objectively, as it likely didn't happen in that manner. When the current LS went into development in late 2001, it wasn't the plan from the onset to include a long-wheelbase variant in the LS430 replacement. That idea came to fruition circa 2002-2003, shortly before final selections where being made on design proposals and engineering efforts intensifying. Judging by a 2004 photo of a 1:1 clay model MY2007 LS (final post-freeze design), it was in SWB form and very much the initial focus during development, not the LWB.
Not even the W220 and W221 S-Class generations were developed with the LWB in mind, leaving the W222 as the sole example as of late in this class. In reality, the 1995.5/MY96 Chrysler NS minivans (Caravan, Voyager, T&C) were probably the first passenger vehicles to be developed (dr. 1990-1995) with a focus on the extended-length versions, as opposed to the regular length offering. Lexus might be going in this direction, while also offering the SWB in necessary markets.
Mexico continues to become an auto manufacturing powerhouse. Didn't realize Infiniti was building there next.
They had given a press release on this joint-venture plant 2 years ago, but media had pointed it towards building the likes of the Q30 and QX30. I don't like the idea one bit and hope they are prepared to handle it well. I spoke with
someone who has access to the production QX50 itself, deep information on it, and gave me a lot more on some other future Infinitis and Nissans. I really wish my contact at Toyota UK had not left, as it would be much easier to know things behind the scenes.