The Future of the IS Thread

[maiaramdan]

Stop? lol.

Notice that LC was not in the group of cars I mentioned. ES is built on a platform that is 100% identical to the Toyota Avalon, and it uses an engine and transmission that are also identical. What's different between an ES and Avalon is a strut brace, sound deadening and the sheet metal/plastic trim parts. It's the same story for the UX/C-HR. LS is a different animal and dedicated Lexus product, but I don't need to go on about the shortcomings of that model - it was 8/10ths of the way there, but that last 2/10 was critical and they dropped the ball.

None of this means they're bad cars, it just means Toyota stopped trying to make Lexus a "best in class" brand and has seemingly settled into the role of "Toyota plus" for most of the Lexus lineup.

Agree
Honestly I want to comment on something
I was in the both new Avalon and ES and if they swap the emblem tomorrow or won't be problem for me at all, the fit & finish inside this thing at least the mid East exported Avalon in on par with ES with driving handling little bit better towards sporty drive.

UX - CH-R is literally the same
RX - Highlander (current) I will take the later anyday

NX - RAV4 thought the previous RAV4 was nasty in fit & finish compared to the NX brother so I must see the new RAV4 & new NX back2back first

but in short Lexus is turning to Toyota in 80th / 90th , while Toyota is turning to Toyota in 70th / 80th

So very soon we will have 2 companies in the exact same category!

 

[maiaramdan]

If they can't justify a major investment in the RX, they won't ever meaningfully invest in anything through Lexus. That thing literally helped build the brand beyond the first impression the LS made.

I still remember when the first RX came out, everyone was astonished from a luxury SUV without a ladder chassis

There were a big post about the pros and cons of this move for both Toyota as a corp and for all the industry !

 

[Gecko]

Lexus is disappointing me so much lately and I really feel sorry for those who leased GS/IS and won’t have a new model to go to once their leases are up. The GX got a grille. The RX received AC/AA. The LX gets a “sport” grille. This brand is embarrassing. Once the GS is officially cancelled, I’m done. Sad to go, but like Infiniti, these are all self inflicted wounds.

 

[James]

Okay this question isn’t just IS but does have to deal with IS as well. With our entire lineup what can we expect in the next two years? What new products (new design or just refreshes) are coming? I know LCC but what else is there? Would love if anyone had somewhat of a guess on our near future!

 

[Carmaker1]

The c class is what 4 years old and still fantastic
New 3 series
A4 is a new model and was just updated
Even Acura has a new tlx coming and genesis the g70. Heck Kia stinger and tesla Model 3 etc all relatively new

I assume Lexus will be happy around 1500-2000 units a month with another refresh. Which lets be honest the motoring press is going to destroy.

Hopeully a Hybrid comes and might as well throw the 5.0 V-& and make a IS F at this rate...

W205 C-Class is actually 6 years old next month and new one has been testing in final body for over 1 year now. New C-Class will be revealed in December and go on sale early next year.

B10 Audi A4 is some 2 years away I believe. They just designed it a few months ago. It almost went to becoming Jetta XL, but they're sticking to North-South layout for 2023.

Sad that Lexus is taking a wait and see approach, pondering if they should cancel IS mid-decade or possibly use Mazda as a partner on entry level RWD cars.

 

[Carmaker1]

Mercedes and VW have both halted future development of ICE technology. So the W205 C-Class and the B9 A4 are as good as they can get. Neither of them see a future for these two products (or at least think there's no need to invest heavily). A W206 and B10 will be refreshes as well or completely replaced by EVs. I don't know if BMW has a more optimistic view for the future of the 3-series.

For the first bolded line, as someone that follows the German automotive industry, that isn't quite true. Lexus is quite alone in this aspect. The F30 and XE30 were competitors, as were B9 and W205. B10 design was approved a few months ago at VAG, it is due in 2022.

As for the second bolded, this is partly true and inaccurate in regards to MB. The W206 is not a refresh in any sense. It is a full model change, utilizing the second generation of modular MRA (MRA II). Otherwise, one could consider the W222 a refresh of the W221 S-Class. W223 S-Class will debut MRA II this year. Next E-Class is finishing up styling rounds already for 2024, unlike GS.

The B10 A4 almost went to MQB, while A6 and above were to go RWD MSB. It is not known if MLBevo will be heavily revised for B10 or if, RWD MSB will be made to accommodate it.

It was mentioned by a source last summer, they would make a final design decision on B10 A4 in Q4 2019 and with that, what architecture the design would sit on. MLB architecture is dead essentially and will be replaced by MSB upper end or reworked for entry level MLB.

The difference between New N and MLBevo, is that New N is RWD, but how update to date is it particularly compared to VAG's state of the art MLBevo, which is also utilized by Bentley, Lamborghini, and Porsche?

 

[mediumhot]

Wow!! Is this a hint that there was a real debate back in 2010 within Toyota if there should be a new LS at all?

 

[Carmaker1]

For the first bolded line, as someone that follows the German automotive industry, that isn't quite true. Lexus is quite alone in this aspect. The F30 and XE30 were competitors, as were B9 and W205. B10 design was approved a few months ago at VAG, it is due in 2022.

As for the second bolded, this is partly true and inaccurate in regards to MB. The W206 is not a refresh in any sense. It is a full model change, utilizing the second generation of modular MRA (MRA II). Otherwise, one could consider the W222 a refresh of the W221 S-Class. W223 S-Class will debut MRA II this year. Next E-Class is finishing up styling rounds already for 2024, unlike GS.

The B10 A4 almost went to MQB, while A6 and above were to go RWD MSB. It is not known if MLBevo will be heavily revised for B10 or if, RWD MSB will be made to accommodate it.

It was mentioned by a source last summer, they would make a final design decision on B10 A4 in Q4 2019 and with that, what architecture the design would sit on. MLB architecture is dead essentially and will be replaced by MSB upper end or reworked for entry level MLB.

The difference between New N and MLBevo, is that New N is RWD, but how update to date is it particularly compared to VAG's state of the art MLBevo, which is also utilized by Bentley, Lamborghini, and Porsche?

To correct myself, I forgot to add ICE development was halted, but at the actual date in time the announcement was made.

The W206 has been in development since 2015. Only products being started after that decision, will be affected by it.

Wow!! Is this a hint that there was a real debate back in 2010 within Toyota if there should be a new LS at all?

For GS, that did happen in 2009 as things reached a decisive point. Akio Akio toyoda took the helm in June of 2009 as L10 GS development was reaching a critical point after the program got started in June 2007.

Back in 2009, designers were required to finish the production design ahead of its 2012 introduction, as well as engineers start developing prototypes and setting major parameters, which also involved new plant tooling.

This was during the economic crisis and just as the LS 460 was getting its first refresh for 2010.

I am very certain now and fully understand the whole picture, that Akio Toyoda is the one who ordered the four LS 2013 model year facelift in 2009.

To do a facelift of those proportions requires 3 years of overall planning. The car went on sale in September 2012. You do the math.

According to the Design Story for the 2013 LS, final designs w/Spindle Grille fascia were completed in 2010, just one year after the 2010 MY facelift went on sale. Engineering froze the updated design right before the March 2011 natural disasters.

 

[meth.ix]

looks like the only IS F I will ever own when I grow up is going to be a 2008 model with 200k miles, assuming that big 5.0L V8s will even be legal in 10 years
😕

 

[maiaramdan]

by the way guys,

I am not against wait and see

What makes me sad is that if you wait and see you have no reason whatsoever to be the number 1 in the exact category you waited for it

 

[spwolf]

Stop? lol.

Notice that LC was not in the group of cars I mentioned. ES is built on a platform that is 100% identical to the Toyota Avalon, and it uses an engine and transmission that are also identical. What's different between an ES and Avalon is a strut brace, sound deadening and the sheet metal/plastic trim parts. It's the same story for the UX/C-HR. LS is a different animal and dedicated Lexus product, but I don't need to go on about the shortcomings of that model - it was 8/10ths of the way there, but that last 2/10 was critical and they dropped the ball.

None of this means they're bad cars, it just means Toyota stopped trying to make Lexus a "best in class" brand and has seemingly settled into the role of "Toyota plus" for most of the Lexus lineup.

You are greatly simplifying them using same platform and making it sound it is a rebadge. It is not. I would argue they do pretty good job in differentiating vehicles, as they always did and it a lot more than what VW does with many of Audi models.

And in fact, they are actually putting a lot more effort into their FWD lineup compared to before - new ES is a lot better vehicle in every way than the old one, UX is a lot better vehicle than the CT.

You really think they should develop some other 2.0l hybrid to put in Lexus UX vs C-HR? Or different platform just so they can call it different and spend a billion on something for forum wars? It is pretty silly.

 

[spwolf]

but I still don't think Japanese reliability has been reached for everything besides the Tesla power train and even that is suspect with even Car and Driver TM3 rear motor replaced before 10k km had been reached.

i mean Tesla's are statistically the least reliable cars on the road, so I am not sure why do you think otherwise.

As to VW group making 3090 different EV models and selling a billion by 2025, good luck. They seem to be having problems by getting the main EV out in 2020, and somehow they are planning to introduce 15 new EVs every year?

I have more trust in Rivian and few other similar companies to get their cars out than some crazy crap from VW.

 

[ssun30]

Worth noting that if you take the hp/L ratio of the current 2.0T and apply to a 2.4 or 2.5L I4, you get ~295hp and ~315lb-ft of torque. It's not scientific at all, but but in theory, those numbers would make the car a lot of fun and be best in class for power, I think.

They did just launch a 1.6L 3-cylinder with almost 170hp/L or a downsizing factor of 0.46. Would you expect them to have something similar with larger engines?

A 2.0L would be over 300hp, a 2.5L close to 400, and the V35A-FTS would scale to 600hp and beyond.

BTW this kind of downsizing factor (~0.5 meaning a 2.0L would make similar power to a NA 4.0L) will be the norm among German brands. I'm pretty sure the successor to the BMW B48 will be over 300hp (it already is close to that number BTW) but they will rate it at 299 for insurance reasons probably.

 

[internalaudit]

i mean Tesla's are statistically the least reliable cars on the road, so I am not sure why do you think otherwise.

As to VW group making 3090 different EV models and selling a billion by 2025, good luck. They seem to be having problems by getting the main EV out in 2020, and somehow they are planning to introduce 15 new EVs every year?

I have more trust in Rivian and few other similar companies to get their cars out than some crazy crap from VW.

Electric motors are simpler than ICE so let's not fool ourselves thinking the average engine will be vastly more reliable than some of those more well built Tesla drive units that aren't being trashed by their owners.

Also, it's 20 each for VW and Audi so that's quite possible since they already have purposely built platforms for BEVs. The Taycan is a formidable BEV and I never mention bottom bargain pricing for these German BEVs so only those people waiting for $35k USD BEVs will be in for a big surprise.

Also EU regulation forcing VW hands. So far VW is on its way to becoming the number one car manufacturer if worldwide sales is the measure stick. Even after Dieselgate, people are still buying gasoline variants.

If I will need a BEV my first choice would be a Lexus then an Acura then a Porsche if budget permits and then I don't mind a Nissan or German make too since most of the issues I read are related to ICE or transmission.

 

[ssun30]

VW's numbers include PHVs and mutiple BEVs for ChDM-only right? Their global BEV number could be much smaller.

From FAW-VW/Audi's bidding requests they will basically build a PHV version of every product in their lineup for ChDM only.

 

[internalaudit]

20 does include China only but 20 BEV for each brand but who knows when they start selling them in North America? It's not like I live in Zimbabwe.

Also I'm not really in a rush with current lithium ion cells since we have reliable enough ICEVs in the meantime.

 

[meth.ix]

Electric motors are simpler than ICE so let's not fool ourselves thinking the average engine will be vastly more reliable than some of those more well built Tesla drive units that aren't being trashed by their owners.

Also, it's 20 each for VW and Audi so that's quite possible since they already have purposely built platforms for BEVs. The Taycan is a formidable BEV and I never mention bottom bargain pricing for these German BEVs so only those people waiting for $35k USD BEVs will be in for a big surprise.

Also EU regulation forcing VW hands. So far VW is on its way to becoming the number one car manufacturer if worldwide sales is the measure stick. Even after Dieselgate, people are still buying gasoline variants.

If I will need a BEV my first choice would be a Lexus then an Acura then a Porsche if budget permits and then I don't mind a Nissan or German make too since most of the issues I read are related to ICE or transmission.

its not just the motor. the overall build quality of Teslas are horrible.

 

[internalaudit]

its not just the motor. the overall build quality of Teslas are horrible.

I know that but still, the drive unit can outlast many ICE and transmissions because it consists of far fewer parts.

Tesla fanboys get upset when I tell them my cars have not experienced any drive or power train issues (main pitch for their beloved Tesla's) and that for a BEV, it is still the sum of its parts and not just the battery or drive unit that determine total cost of ownership.

For me, total cost of ownership and reliability trump instant torque and cheaper fill ups since some of my cars aren't worth much but still drive fine nonetheless. I play the waiting game and will pounce on a reasonably priced AWD BEV (or higher priced but more performance-oriented) a few years from now.

I just think some are underestimating commercial viability of the various solid state battery technologies a few years down the road.

 

[Gecko]

You are greatly simplifying them using same platform and making it sound it is a rebadge. It is not. I would argue they do pretty good job in differentiating vehicles, as they always did and it a lot more than what VW does with many of Audi models.

And in fact, they are actually putting a lot more effort into their FWD lineup compared to before - new ES is a lot better vehicle in every way than the old one, UX is a lot better vehicle than the CT.

You really think they should develop some other 2.0l hybrid to put in Lexus UX vs C-HR? Or different platform just so they can call it different and spend a billion on something for forum wars? It is pretty silly.

I don't know why you won't allow yourself to believe this, but the ES is an Avalon that went to beauty school. It just is - for cost and engineering reasons. Pop the hoods, pull back the trim, put them on a lift and walk under the car - it's all there. I don't have any problem with this strategy and you're trying to imply that I do. It's a perfectly fine way to engineer a car, and the ES is a great car in itself. But is it a car on the same level as the 5 Series or E Class? No, absolutely not - so let's stop acting like the ES is some sort of special engineering case for TNGA-K that is somehow better.

In fact, the only ES AWD model we are getting is ES 250 AWD. Want to know why? Because TOYOTA engineered the chassis to accommodate AWD on the FOUR CYLINDER ONLY because that's the volume model for the Camry and Avalon. So again, Lexus lives with the decisions that are made for Toyota.

I have no problem with 2.0L in the UX and C-HR, and never said I did. Not sure where you pulled that out of.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Rivian's "tank steering" demo was awesome. *That's* something genuinely new that EVs can do. I'd like to see manufacturers emphasize that more on EVs as opposed to Tesla's raw 0-60 focus.