Lexus Aims for 50k ES Sedan Sales Per Year in USA

Joaquin Ruhi

For what it's worth, here's Autoblog's review. Seems that Jonathon Klein is one of their newest reviewers. I liked his Nissan Kicks review, but his ES review is kinda meh:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/06/07/lexus-es-first-drive-review-entry-level-luxury-that-wants-to-h/

I want to buy a Camry that has that same steering wheel and same instrumentation, lol. In fact, it is LS steering wheel and instrumentation, seems like someone got confused.

lsu5508

You are not wrong it just sucks that you cant have the high end interior with the f-sport. Just because i want a great handling car does not mean i dont want leather seats and an attractive trim package.I’m going to reserve judgment until I see it in person though.

NuLuxe doesn't bug me at all, though I've never owned a car with it. I have to say, the Ultra White ES F SPORT with the red interior is out of this world. Would buy that car in a second.

ssun30

Another amazing job by Krew. I think all my questions are answered in that review.

Just wish I had more information for markets outside of North America. Should have something next week.

lsu5508

You are not wrong it just sucks that you cant have the high end interior with the f-sport. Just because i want a great handling car does not mean i dont want leather seats and an attractive trim package.I’m going to reserve judgment until I see it in person though.

NuLuxe doesn't bug me at all, though I've never owned a car with it. I have to say, the Ultra White ES F SPORT with the red interior is out of this world. Would buy that car in a second.

ssun30

Another amazing job by Krew. I think all my questions are answered in that review.

Just wish I had more information for markets outside of North America. Should have something next week.

Joaquin Ruhi

For what it's worth, here's Autoblog's review. Seems that Jonathon Klein is one of their newest reviewers. I liked his Nissan Kicks review, but his ES review is kinda meh:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/06/07/lexus-es-first-drive-review-entry-level-luxury-that-wants-to-h/

We're also not convinced that the interior is different enough from the Toyota Camry and Avalon to justify its expected price premium — Lexus was fuzzy with the numbers but gave us a ballpark. Though the ES does receive a new trim texture based on the finishes of a samurai's katana, if you were to compare interior shots of the Camry and the ES side by side, you'd find that the steering wheel, instrument display, starter button, transmission shifter, and lower console are interchangeable. It's only the infotainment screens, and some slightly higher-quality materials such as the leather seats, that differ significantly.

This interior parts-sharing quandary has always been a fact of life for the ES, but these days it's hard not to drive an ES and cast a glance at the Avalon, if you can get past the badge. What's more, recent Lexus models like the LC 500 have really impressed us with excellent materials, design, craftsmanship, and attention to detail, and it's disappointing that more of the LC's special sauce didn't make it to the ES.

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

View attachment 2879

View attachment 2880

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

Joaquin Ruhi

For what it's worth, here's Autoblog's review. Seems that Jonathon Klein is one of their newest reviewers. I liked his Nissan Kicks review, but his ES review is kinda meh:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/06/07/lexus-es-first-drive-review-entry-level-luxury-that-wants-to-h/

We're also not convinced that the interior is different enough from the Toyota Camry and Avalon to justify its expected price premium — Lexus was fuzzy with the numbers but gave us a ballpark. Though the ES does receive a new trim texture based on the finishes of a samurai's katana, if you were to compare interior shots of the Camry and the ES side by side, you'd find that the steering wheel, instrument display, starter button, transmission shifter, and lower console are interchangeable. It's only the infotainment screens, and some slightly higher-quality materials such as the leather seats, that differ significantly.

This interior parts-sharing quandary has always been a fact of life for the ES, but these days it's hard not to drive an ES and cast a glance at the Avalon, if you can get past the badge. What's more, recent Lexus models like the LC 500 have really impressed us with excellent materials, design, craftsmanship, and attention to detail, and it's disappointing that more of the LC's special sauce didn't make it to the ES.

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

View attachment 2879

View attachment 2880

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

Sakura

Agreed. For us car enthusiasts, if we were have to must have an ES, the F-Sport is the one to buy. But - I feel like for the target demographics of the ES - the Premium Pack to Luxury Package will be the most popular trim to buy.

Agreed, but one thing to note. Remember when they announced the F sport package on the RX and everyone laughed, said it was unnecessary and that nobody would buy it? Look now! ES F-Sport could prove to be very popular, IMO.

Sakura

Agreed. For us car enthusiasts, if we were have to must have an ES, the F-Sport is the one to buy. But - I feel like for the target demographics of the ES - the Premium Pack to Luxury Package will be the most popular trim to buy.

Agreed, but one thing to note. Remember when they announced the F sport package on the RX and everyone laughed, said it was unnecessary and that nobody would buy it? Look now! ES F-Sport could prove to be very popular, IMO.

lsu5508

The f-sport exterior looks great but to me the red interior is just not attractive for an everyday car and the black or black just looks boring in the videos i have watched.. The option of leather and a different trim package would seal the deal for me on the f-sport but now i am left having to choose one or the other. I cant see myself spending 40k-50k on a car and not getting a basic luxury amenity like leather seats. I understand the market for each car is different but i have to imagine there are alot of people that want some of both.

This is one of my biggest frustrations with F Sport, especially on the LS and some more expensive models. I do not want entry level looking aluminum trim on a $100k flagship sedan. And quite frankly, I'd like something other than red or black leather, too. Lexus needs to offer some other trim options like open poor woods, smoked/black woods, etc or allow F Sport to be added to other packages like you note. The aluminum has been an economy car trim for almost two decades now... it's got to go.

lsu5508

The f-sport exterior looks great but to me the red interior is just not attractive for an everyday car and the black or black just looks boring in the videos i have watched.. The option of leather and a different trim package would seal the deal for me on the f-sport but now i am left having to choose one or the other. I cant see myself spending 40k-50k on a car and not getting a basic luxury amenity like leather seats. I understand the market for each car is different but i have to imagine there are alot of people that want some of both.

This is one of my biggest frustrations with F Sport, especially on the LS and some more expensive models. I do not want entry level looking aluminum trim on a $100k flagship sedan. And quite frankly, I'd like something other than red or black leather, too. Lexus needs to offer some other trim options like open poor woods, smoked/black woods, etc or allow F Sport to be added to other packages like you note. The aluminum has been an economy car trim for almost two decades now... it's got to go.

krew

Just wish I had more information for markets outside of North America. Should have something next week.

Things that I forgot to ask: how do the low profile tyres (w/19-inch) on the F-Sport affect ride quality? Is there a notable difference in harshness and road noise compared to the high profile tyres (w/17 or 18-inch)? What compound does the F-Sport use? Is it sport softs, or long life hards? Does the hybrid use low rolling-resistance tyres?

krew

Just wish I had more information for markets outside of North America. Should have something next week.

Things that I forgot to ask: how do the low profile tyres (w/19-inch) on the F-Sport affect ride quality? Is there a notable difference in harshness and road noise compared to the high profile tyres (w/17 or 18-inch)? What compound does the F-Sport use? Is it sport softs, or long life hards? Does the hybrid use low rolling-resistance tyres?

spwolf

I want to buy a Camry that has that same steering wheel and same instrumentation, lol. In fact, it is LS steering wheel and instrumentation, seems like someone got confused.

krew

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

FWIW, at least one, if not more of the post-review comments blasted Autoblog's Klein for those stupid comments.

spwolf

I want to buy a Camry that has that same steering wheel and same instrumentation, lol. In fact, it is LS steering wheel and instrumentation, seems like someone got confused.

krew

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

FWIW, at least one, if not more of the post-review comments blasted Autoblog's Klein for those stupid comments.

ssun30

ES target demographic will surely want AWD. As many reviewers pointed out, premium buyers want AWD for that security factor; it's not entirely about performance. Once current generation GS is discontinued, Lexus will have no substitute to offer in Northern U.S. not to mention Canada where AWD is a must. Therefore they will be offering AWD on ES. It's evident from the floor hump in the second row. Toyota representatives always say "we are investigating it" regardless of whether they are really doing it.

What do you mean security factor? You mean traction?

I watched a couple review and read a couple on the Lexus ES too. The general opinion among car enthusiasts is we want an AWD Lexus ES. However - as some reviews noted - the AWD system will help the car from wheel-spinning but they also mention the typical ES driver will not push it that hard where wheel-spin occurs. So the typical average Lexus ES driver doesn't need it. (I'm strictly talking about the US-Market by the way. The main demographics for the ES is an older buyer that is at least 50+ years of age - for the US.)

According to sales numbers since 2002: the Lexus ES consumers don't seem to care (want) AWD. They averaged high 40K to 70K in yearly unit sales without AWD since 2002. As for Canada - the Lexus ES peaked sales was in 2007 at 4000 units. Then every other year - the Lexus ES averages 2000 to 3000 units per year. Its safe to say, Canadian market is not priority to Lexus. Also - Canadian market has been averaging 2000 to 3000 sales per year consistently with FWD so I don't think its at a point where Lexus really feels they need to add FWD.
I also personally think a AWD Lexus ES is bad choice as a snow car. I would get a Audi or Subaru for that. Or an Acura with SH-AWD.
I also think the GS needed an AWD option because it was RWD base. FWD does pretty well in the snow.

The floor hump in the second row is poor evidence though because the Camry and Avalon has a second row hump as well. It could really just mean its a design que. Unless they are planning to add AWD to the Camry, Avalon and the ES? Which is unlikely.
What I mean by design que is: Toyota is trying to make their cars more sporty - a second row hump just looks more sporty in design language. It separates it from the Corolla and etc...
Another example: The 1G and 2G Acura TSX had the second row hump. The 3G TL has it as well. None of them had AWD offered to them. The rumor back in 2007 was the Acura TSX will get the RDX Turbo + AWD in the 2G because of the second row hump. Nothing happened. Another K24 N/A engine + FWD.

Agreed. "We are investigating it" is a loose phrase to not stir media. It can allow them to go yay or nay. We really can't tell what they mean by that phrase, hell, they could have just said it and not be doing anything at all.

These are just my opinions and assumption for Toyota, anyways. They haven't been making cars in the car enthusiasts mind-set for a long time. This is why TMC is so rich.

spwolf

Well, as krew said, it handles and feels better... it is not just about appearance, unlike german packages where you can buy just external package without any other changes.

So in fact, Lexus F-Sport is actually a lot more comprehensive package than just standard M Sport, AMG Sport and S-Line.

The F-Sport model does handles and feels better than the standard ES. I agree. Its because of the different tuning of the suspensions. However - many reviewers I read - they notice its only a subtle change because the handling is some compromised by the FWD. That's where I'm just basing everything from.

krew

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

From what I took from the Autoblog review, I think he means the interior is similarity put together (as in the location of everything is pretty much the same - interchangeable). But overall - I really have no clue what hes talking about.... Lol. But - benefit of the doubt - I do see some "Camry-ness" if I stare at it for long enough.

Gecko

Agreed, but one thing to note. Remember when they announced the F sport package on the RX and everyone laughed, said it was unnecessary and that nobody would buy it? Look now! ES F-Sport could prove to be very popular, IMO.

Agreed. +1 Good point. However - I think the biggest attractiveness to current line-up of F-Sport models is the digital gauges. With the new Lexus that are coming out, they'll be offering both digital gauges and LFA style gauges. I believe the Lexus RX packaging isn't also as restrictive as the ES because you can have leather seats on the Lexus RX F-Sport.

ssun30

ES target demographic will surely want AWD. As many reviewers pointed out, premium buyers want AWD for that security factor; it's not entirely about performance. Once current generation GS is discontinued, Lexus will have no substitute to offer in Northern U.S. not to mention Canada where AWD is a must. Therefore they will be offering AWD on ES. It's evident from the floor hump in the second row. Toyota representatives always say "we are investigating it" regardless of whether they are really doing it.

What do you mean security factor? You mean traction?

I watched a couple review and read a couple on the Lexus ES too. The general opinion among car enthusiasts is we want an AWD Lexus ES. However - as some reviews noted - the AWD system will help the car from wheel-spinning but they also mention the typical ES driver will not push it that hard where wheel-spin occurs. So the typical average Lexus ES driver doesn't need it. (I'm strictly talking about the US-Market by the way. The main demographics for the ES is an older buyer that is at least 50+ years of age - for the US.)

According to sales numbers since 2002: the Lexus ES consumers don't seem to care (want) AWD. They averaged high 40K to 70K in yearly unit sales without AWD since 2002. As for Canada - the Lexus ES peaked sales was in 2007 at 4000 units. Then every other year - the Lexus ES averages 2000 to 3000 units per year. Its safe to say, Canadian market is not priority to Lexus. Also - Canadian market has been averaging 2000 to 3000 sales per year consistently with FWD so I don't think its at a point where Lexus really feels they need to add FWD.
I also personally think a AWD Lexus ES is bad choice as a snow car. I would get a Audi or Subaru for that. Or an Acura with SH-AWD.
I also think the GS needed an AWD option because it was RWD base. FWD does pretty well in the snow.

The floor hump in the second row is poor evidence though because the Camry and Avalon has a second row hump as well. It could really just mean its a design que. Unless they are planning to add AWD to the Camry, Avalon and the ES? Which is unlikely.
What I mean by design que is: Toyota is trying to make their cars more sporty - a second row hump just looks more sporty in design language. It separates it from the Corolla and etc...
Another example: The 1G and 2G Acura TSX had the second row hump. The 3G TL has it as well. None of them had AWD offered to them. The rumor back in 2007 was the Acura TSX will get the RDX Turbo + AWD in the 2G because of the second row hump. Nothing happened. Another K24 N/A engine + FWD.

Agreed. "We are investigating it" is a loose phrase to not stir media. It can allow them to go yay or nay. We really can't tell what they mean by that phrase, hell, they could have just said it and not be doing anything at all.

These are just my opinions and assumption for Toyota, anyways. They haven't been making cars in the car enthusiasts mind-set for a long time. This is why TMC is so rich.

spwolf

Well, as krew said, it handles and feels better... it is not just about appearance, unlike german packages where you can buy just external package without any other changes.

So in fact, Lexus F-Sport is actually a lot more comprehensive package than just standard M Sport, AMG Sport and S-Line.

The F-Sport model does handles and feels better than the standard ES. I agree. Its because of the different tuning of the suspensions. However - many reviewers I read - they notice its only a subtle change because the handling is some compromised by the FWD. That's where I'm just basing everything from.

krew

I suppose the Camry and ES share the same interior -- I mean, both have steering wheels, instrument panels, seats, doors handles, some buttons, a glovebox, a center console, pedals, a stereo, cup holders.

Maybe he meant similar color schemes??

From what I took from the Autoblog review, I think he means the interior is similarity put together (as in the location of everything is pretty much the same - interchangeable). But overall - I really have no clue what hes talking about.... Lol. But - benefit of the doubt - I do see some "Camry-ness" if I stare at it for long enough.

Gecko

Agreed, but one thing to note. Remember when they announced the F sport package on the RX and everyone laughed, said it was unnecessary and that nobody would buy it? Look now! ES F-Sport could prove to be very popular, IMO.

Agreed. +1 Good point. However - I think the biggest attractiveness to current line-up of F-Sport models is the digital gauges. With the new Lexus that are coming out, they'll be offering both digital gauges and LFA style gauges. I believe the Lexus RX packaging isn't also as restrictive as the ES because you can have leather seats on the Lexus RX F-Sport.

As to the AWD, while all the rumors say it is coming, lets keep in mind that AWD take rate is something like 8% in the USA and much less in Europe.

As to the AWD, while all the rumors say it is coming, lets keep in mind that AWD take rate is something like 8% in the USA and much less in Europe.

spwolf

As to the AWD, while all the rumors say it is coming, lets keep in mind that AWD take rate is something like 8% in the USA and much less in Europe.

+1 Good info to know. While I never really thought about it, its true. The USA AWD take-rate is pretty low.

spwolf

As to the AWD, while all the rumors say it is coming, lets keep in mind that AWD take rate is something like 8% in the USA and much less in Europe.

+1 Good info to know. While I never really thought about it, its true. The USA AWD take-rate is pretty low.

Krew, I want to thank you for your very thorough review. All my questions have been answered.

Krew, I want to thank you for your very thorough review. All my questions have been answered.

I don't want to incline you towards a new ES300h review from a Polish guy. His name is Pertyn Ględzi. I will tell you only that I like how he gives the sensation of acceleration from a camera being fitted at the driver's side windscreen pointing towards the cabin. Of course video has English subs.

I don't want to incline you towards a new ES300h review from a Polish guy. His name is Pertyn Ględzi. I will tell you only that I like how he gives the sensation of acceleration from a camera being fitted at the driver's side windscreen pointing towards the cabin. Of course video has English subs.

Sakura

+1 Good info to know. While I never really thought about it, its true. The USA AWD take-rate is pretty low.

Now i'm no expert in sales and marketing...but I would think that AWD uptake would increase if they cull the GS. I know GS sales are not through the roof. But there will be IS owners wanting bigger cars but not necessarily looking at the SUV offerings being left without any viable options. They are not going to step down into a FWD. I mean yes, in the real world, FWD and RWD makes almost no difference to the driving experience. But luxury cars are not just about practicality right?

I also believe that the hump there is not just aesthetic. The GA-K platform does support AWD. As seen in the Toyota CH-R and upcoming RAV4 lexus UX and future Toyota/lexus SUVs like the next generation RX and NX. There was also rumours of a hotted up camry a while back (https://www.caradvice.com.au/603430/hotted-up-toyota-camry-chief-engineer-loves-the-idea/ ...i'm Australian...). And yes there are a lot of differences but at the end of the day, the drivetrains are pretty much the same. So there is still hope right?

Boy wouldn't it be awesome to have a more powerful ES...roughly 250kw AWD...10 speed...i'm not asking for too much right? Also gimme rear seet warmers and double wishbone front suspension...it seems such a waste to have such a beautiful car hindered by FWD...Australians get it even worse. Just two grades, no F-sport and no V6. such a shame.

Sakura

+1 Good info to know. While I never really thought about it, its true. The USA AWD take-rate is pretty low.

Now i'm no expert in sales and marketing...but I would think that AWD uptake would increase if they cull the GS. I know GS sales are not through the roof. But there will be IS owners wanting bigger cars but not necessarily looking at the SUV offerings being left without any viable options. They are not going to step down into a FWD. I mean yes, in the real world, FWD and RWD makes almost no difference to the driving experience. But luxury cars are not just about practicality right?

I also believe that the hump there is not just aesthetic. The GA-K platform does support AWD. As seen in the Toyota CH-R and upcoming RAV4 lexus UX and future Toyota/lexus SUVs like the next generation RX and NX. There was also rumours of a hotted up camry a while back (https://www.caradvice.com.au/603430/hotted-up-toyota-camry-chief-engineer-loves-the-idea/ ...i'm Australian...). And yes there are a lot of differences but at the end of the day, the drivetrains are pretty much the same. So there is still hope right?

Boy wouldn't it be awesome to have a more powerful ES...roughly 250kw AWD...10 speed...i'm not asking for too much right? Also gimme rear seet warmers and double wishbone front suspension...it seems such a waste to have such a beautiful car hindered by FWD...Australians get it even worse. Just two grades, no F-sport and no V6. such a shame.

thtupid

Now i'm no expert in sales and marketing...but I would think that AWD uptake would increase if they cull the GS. I know GS sales are not through the roof. But there will be IS owners wanting bigger cars but not necessarily looking at the SUV offerings being left without any viable options. They are not going to step down into a FWD. I mean yes, in the real world, FWD and RWD makes almost no difference to the driving experience. But luxury cars are not just about practicality right?

I also believe that the hump there is not just aesthetic. The GA-K platform does support AWD. As seen in the Toyota CH-R and upcoming RAV4 lexus UX and future Toyota/lexus SUVs like the next generation RX and NX. There was also rumours of a hotted up camry a while back (https://www.caradvice.com.au/603430/hotted-up-toyota-camry-chief-engineer-loves-the-idea/ ...i'm Australian...). And yes there are a lot of differences but at the end of the day, the drivetrains are pretty much the same. So there is still hope right?

Boy wouldn't it be awesome to have a more powerful ES...roughly 250kw AWD...10 speed...i'm not asking for too much right? Also gimme rear seet warmers and double wishbone front suspension...it seems such a waste to have such a beautiful car hindered by FWD...Australians get it even worse. Just two grades, no F-sport and no V6. such a shame.

Not necessarily. The Lexus ES's core demographic is a male of 50 years of age or older. Its also - these likely owners are current Lexus ES owners or Camry/Avalon owners looking for a change. This shows evidence that the Lexus ES is in no demand of a AWD because sales of the previous were insanely good without AWD. With no complaints or demands for it from core consumers. The only reason why anyone is saying "AWD ES" is because of the rumors of the GS going away and these are from minority of people or enthusiasts.

The problem is: GS owners or potential GS buyers will not "drop a tier" to go buy an AWD ES. Its more likely GS owners will bail on the Lexus brand and go German. A lot of CL (ClubLexus) GS owners are saying this. And it make sense. A RWD owner wouldn't substitute having RWD for AWD.

Similarity, to the Lexus IS. Majority of IS owners are younger and want something entry-level + sporty + RWD. The Lexus IS loaded will be cheaper by at least by a couple thousand compared to a AWD ES.

Sure - maybe a little bit of the IS/GS owners will be in the minority and go to the ES. But the question is: how much money will Lexus make from an AWD ES? Will it be worth for the little bit extra of sales? You likely won't get enough GS and IS owners to buy the ES to make developing an AWD worth it. Especially since the USA market is on a SUV craze and the sedan is already facing tough competition. An AWD SUV will make more sense too because it has more clearance.

The hump, of course, is not purely aesthetics. The GA-K platform does support AWD. But Toyota is pretty much catching up in this department. Many FWD cars had humps for the exhaust pipes since the early 2000s. The Acura TSX had a hump and was never offered AWD.

Of course - it would be awesome. As car enthusiasts, we would love to see it. As a car enthusiasts, I would love to see an ES AWD with a Turbo engine. As a Toyota shareholder, an AWD Turbo ES would be bad business. An AWD will not generate enough return to create enough profits. It'll be a waste of development cash. A Turbo ES will damage the core image of the ES - will deter sales from mass consumers in favor of enthusiasts, which isn't the driving force of profits.

thtupid

Now i'm no expert in sales and marketing...but I would think that AWD uptake would increase if they cull the GS. I know GS sales are not through the roof. But there will be IS owners wanting bigger cars but not necessarily looking at the SUV offerings being left without any viable options. They are not going to step down into a FWD. I mean yes, in the real world, FWD and RWD makes almost no difference to the driving experience. But luxury cars are not just about practicality right?

I also believe that the hump there is not just aesthetic. The GA-K platform does support AWD. As seen in the Toyota CH-R and upcoming RAV4 lexus UX and future Toyota/lexus SUVs like the next generation RX and NX. There was also rumours of a hotted up camry a while back (https://www.caradvice.com.au/603430/hotted-up-toyota-camry-chief-engineer-loves-the-idea/ ...i'm Australian...). And yes there are a lot of differences but at the end of the day, the drivetrains are pretty much the same. So there is still hope right?

Boy wouldn't it be awesome to have a more powerful ES...roughly 250kw AWD...10 speed...i'm not asking for too much right? Also gimme rear seet warmers and double wishbone front suspension...it seems such a waste to have such a beautiful car hindered by FWD...Australians get it even worse. Just two grades, no F-sport and no V6. such a shame.

Not necessarily. The Lexus ES's core demographic is a male of 50 years of age or older. Its also - these likely owners are current Lexus ES owners or Camry/Avalon owners looking for a change. This shows evidence that the Lexus ES is in no demand of a AWD because sales of the previous were insanely good without AWD. With no complaints or demands for it from core consumers. The only reason why anyone is saying "AWD ES" is because of the rumors of the GS going away and these are from minority of people or enthusiasts.

The problem is: GS owners or potential GS buyers will not "drop a tier" to go buy an AWD ES. Its more likely GS owners will bail on the Lexus brand and go German. A lot of CL (ClubLexus) GS owners are saying this. And it make sense. A RWD owner wouldn't substitute having RWD for AWD.

Similarity, to the Lexus IS. Majority of IS owners are younger and want something entry-level + sporty + RWD. The Lexus IS loaded will be cheaper by at least by a couple thousand compared to a AWD ES.

Sure - maybe a little bit of the IS/GS owners will be in the minority and go to the ES. But the question is: how much money will Lexus make from an AWD ES? Will it be worth for the little bit extra of sales? You likely won't get enough GS and IS owners to buy the ES to make developing an AWD worth it. Especially since the USA market is on a SUV craze and the sedan is already facing tough competition. An AWD SUV will make more sense too because it has more clearance.

The hump, of course, is not purely aesthetics. The GA-K platform does support AWD. But Toyota is pretty much catching up in this department. Many FWD cars had humps for the exhaust pipes since the early 2000s. The Acura TSX had a hump and was never offered AWD.

Of course - it would be awesome. As car enthusiasts, we would love to see it. As a car enthusiasts, I would love to see an ES AWD with a Turbo engine. As a Toyota shareholder, an AWD Turbo ES would be bad business. An AWD will not generate enough return to create enough profits. It'll be a waste of development cash. A Turbo ES will damage the core image of the ES - will deter sales from mass consumers in favor of enthusiasts, which isn't the driving force of profits.

Sakura

The hump, of course, is not purely aesthetics. The GA-K platform does support AWD. But Toyota is pretty much catching up in this department. Many FWD cars had humps for the exhaust pipes since the early 2000s. The Acura TSX had a hump and was never offered AWD.

Of course - it would be awesome. As car enthusiasts, we would love to see it. As a car enthusiasts, I would love to see an ES AWD with a Turbo engine. As a Toyota shareholder, an AWD Turbo ES would be bad business. An AWD will not generate enough return to create enough profits. It'll be a waste of development cash. A Turbo ES will damage the core image of the ES - will deter sales from mass consumers in favor of enthusiasts, which isn't the driving force of profits.

1) First point is false. The hump is much more pronounced than a regular exhaust hump. The height is what you'd expect from a RWD or AWD car. If they didn't prepare it for the axle then they are just wasting valuable leg room in the rear.

2) Nobody is saying they are making an AWD Turbo ES, just an AWD ES in general. 8% take rate is just a statistic without context. In what segment? In which area? On what type of vehicle? Which category of consumers buy AWD? Is there a year-to-year trend that suggests it is staying that way? I would like to hear about the details. There are areas in North America where AWD is a must. What you are saying is they should stop selling the ES sedan in these areas because there aren't any ES buyers or potential ES buyers there, which makes between 1% and 50% sense. Going by that logic, the IS and LS shouldn't be offered AWD either because they are selling at a much lower volume than the ES, and thus the absolute number of AWD sales is even lower, and as a result spending resources on AWD models is an even bigger waste.

I'm not fully denying your point here. Sometimes it's okay to abandon a certain demographics to achieve better overall results, sometimes it's not. But the thing is, we can't really tell on this issue without the data analysis capability of the accounting department of a mega corporation.

Oh also on the matter of turbo, they will replace the 3.5 V6 with a turbo at some point if only to reduce fuel consumption. It has nothing to do with the core image of the car, or trying to favor the enthusiasts for that matter (seriously, what kind of enthusiast would choose a turbo 4 vs. a naturally aspirated V6?). In fact replacing V6s with turbo 4s is all it took Toyota and Lexus to drastically increase sales in regions that favor turbo engines like China. Not having a turbo 4 on the ES is restricting how high they can reach in China; they are confined to the lower end of the premium segment with the 2.5 and 2.5 hybrid.

By the way they have already made the R&D investment in multiple AWD systems and integration of AWD with GA-K. I would call engineering a LC-F or LS-F a bigger waste of development cash because these two programs are almost guaranteed to lose money. If we take the argument even further, to optimize their business results, all the company really need to invest in are crossovers. The fact that even the most optimized automaker in the world does not run an seemingly optimized strategy means those earning six-figures are analyzing things with much more depth than we could.

To bring an end to this AWD discussion (seriously, it has been brought up way too many times in this forum that it needs to end), I would say let's just wait and see. The ES lineup is surely not complete at this point but honestly I don't care. The ES300h is really the sweet spot.

Sakura

The hump, of course, is not purely aesthetics. The GA-K platform does support AWD. But Toyota is pretty much catching up in this department. Many FWD cars had humps for the exhaust pipes since the early 2000s. The Acura TSX had a hump and was never offered AWD.

Of course - it would be awesome. As car enthusiasts, we would love to see it. As a car enthusiasts, I would love to see an ES AWD with a Turbo engine. As a Toyota shareholder, an AWD Turbo ES would be bad business. An AWD will not generate enough return to create enough profits. It'll be a waste of development cash. A Turbo ES will damage the core image of the ES - will deter sales from mass consumers in favor of enthusiasts, which isn't the driving force of profits.

1) First point is false. The hump is much more pronounced than a regular exhaust hump. The height is what you'd expect from a RWD or AWD car. If they didn't prepare it for the axle then they are just wasting valuable leg room in the rear.

2) Nobody is saying they are making an AWD Turbo ES, just an AWD ES in general. 8% take rate is just a statistic without context. In what segment? In which area? On what type of vehicle? Which category of consumers buy AWD? Is there a year-to-year trend that suggests it is staying that way? I would like to hear about the details. There are areas in North America where AWD is a must. What you are saying is they should stop selling the ES sedan in these areas because there aren't any ES buyers or potential ES buyers there, which makes between 1% and 50% sense. Going by that logic, the IS and LS shouldn't be offered AWD either because they are selling at a much lower volume than the ES, and thus the absolute number of AWD sales is even lower, and as a result spending resources on AWD models is an even bigger waste.

I'm not fully denying your point here. Sometimes it's okay to abandon a certain demographics to achieve better overall results, sometimes it's not. But the thing is, we can't really tell on this issue without the data analysis capability of the accounting department of a mega corporation.

Oh also on the matter of turbo, they will replace the 3.5 V6 with a turbo at some point if only to reduce fuel consumption. It has nothing to do with the core image of the car, or trying to favor the enthusiasts for that matter (seriously, what kind of enthusiast would choose a turbo 4 vs. a naturally aspirated V6?). In fact replacing V6s with turbo 4s is all it took Toyota and Lexus to drastically increase sales in regions that favor turbo engines like China. Not having a turbo 4 on the ES is restricting how high they can reach in China; they are confined to the lower end of the premium segment with the 2.5 and 2.5 hybrid.

By the way they have already made the R&D investment in multiple AWD systems and integration of AWD with GA-K. I would call engineering a LC-F or LS-F a bigger waste of development cash because these two programs are almost guaranteed to lose money. If we take the argument even further, to optimize their business results, all the company really need to invest in are crossovers. The fact that even the most optimized automaker in the world does not run an seemingly optimized strategy means those earning six-figures are analyzing things with much more depth than we could.

To bring an end to this AWD discussion (seriously, it has been brought up way too many times in this forum that it needs to end), I would say let's just wait and see. The ES lineup is surely not complete at this point but honestly I don't care. The ES300h is really the sweet spot.

Well, AWD is rumored to come... I was just pointing how all these people who want AWD on the internet, in the end very few will buy AWD version.

But with worldwide models, AWD is more important now for ES. Not just snowy areas of USA but also Japanese love their AWDs.

edit: I would also guess it might be interesting for Russia, one of the best Lexus markets in the world... but i dont expect crazy numbers there.