Lexus ES: Sixth GenerationUSA

Lexus Aims for 50k ES Sedan Sales Per Year in USA

Lexus ES 300h

Lexus has high hopes that the new 2019 Lexus ES will appeal to a wider range of buyers with the release of the first-ever ES 350 F SPORT — here’s how the difference in demographics was presented during the sedan’s launch in Nashville last month:

Lexus ES Demographics

(As for the ES 300h buyers, Lexus expects them to follow the typical hybrid buyer, with a higher education level and a higher income.)

Together, all three ES variants will sell an estimated 50,000 units per year in the USA. This number is well below the five-year average of 64k, and signals a belief at Lexus that car sales will not rebound in the near future.

Another interesting detail is the split between the standard ES, ES F SPORT, and ES hybrid:

Lexus ES Variant Breakdown

Here’s a video for those interested in watching the full presentation from Lexus USA vice-president of marketing Cooper Ericksen:

Comments
Well, AWD is rumored to come... I was just pointing how all these people who want AWD on the internet, in the end very few will buy AWD version.

But with worldwide models, AWD is more important now for ES. Not just snowy areas of USA but also Japanese love their AWDs.

edit: I would also guess it might be interesting for Russia, one of the best Lexus markets in the world... but i dont expect crazy numbers there.
Sakura
A RWD owner wouldn't substitute having RWD for AWD.

An AWD SUV will make more sense too because it has more clearance.
There is a difference between F4-T (FWD-based AWD) and F4-L (RWD-based AWD), where the buyer of the later won't substitute for the former. And no buyer complains about the new E AMG or new M5 being AWD only. It is likely, should there be a hypothetical GS-F with turbo V8, it will not sell because of the lack of AWD. If cars sell thanks to Marketing, RWD is so yesterday. Anyone not interested in AWD, will not care if it is FWD. Proof by case is the BMW X1, that never sold as well.

As for SUVs, unfortunately they do not have significantly more clearance.
Sakura
A RWD owner wouldn't substitute having RWD for AWD.

An AWD SUV will make more sense too because it has more clearance.
There is a difference between F4-T (FWD-based AWD) and F4-L (RWD-based AWD), where the buyer of the later won't substitute for the former. And no buyer complains about the new E AMG or new M5 being AWD only. It is likely, should there be a hypothetical GS-F with turbo V8, it will not sell because of the lack of AWD. If cars sell thanks to Marketing, RWD is so yesterday. Anyone not interested in AWD, will not care if it is FWD. Proof by case is the BMW X1, that never sold as well.

As for SUVs, unfortunately they do not have significantly more clearance.
Sakura
A RWD owner wouldn't substitute having RWD for AWD.

An AWD SUV will make more sense too because it has more clearance.
There is a difference between F4-T (FWD-based AWD) and F4-L (RWD-based AWD), where the buyer of the later won't substitute for the former. And no buyer complains about the new E AMG or new M5 being AWD only. It is likely, should there be a hypothetical GS-F with turbo V8, it will not sell because of the lack of AWD. If cars sell thanks to Marketing, RWD is so yesterday. Anyone not interested in AWD, will not care if it is FWD. Proof by case is the BMW X1, that never sold as well.

As for SUVs, unfortunately they do not have significantly more clearance.
L
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
L
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
L
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
I can answer with confidence that this is a no, unless the downshifting issue is a pre-production flaw.
Transmission integration is actually very complicated because it affects the ride quality, fuel consumption, and emissions a lot. It will not be as simple as changing some code in the ECU. Will a quicker dowshift cause more jerky ride? Will the accelerated rev change impact the chemical composition of the exhaust? In the case of turbocharged engines, will it increase stress on the turbocharger? The drivetrain engineer will have to make sure these areas are not affected.
It's not changing the software that is time-consuming. It's the validation.

Or this could be a non-issue at all, since their transmissions are known to learn the driving style of the owner over time. Maybe the press just doesn't have enough time to have the transmission adapt to more aggressive driving.
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
I can answer with confidence that this is a no, unless the downshifting issue is a pre-production flaw.
Transmission integration is actually very complicated because it affects the ride quality, fuel consumption, and emissions a lot. It will not be as simple as changing some code in the ECU. Will a quicker dowshift cause more jerky ride? Will the accelerated rev change impact the chemical composition of the exhaust? In the case of turbocharged engines, will it increase stress on the turbocharger? The drivetrain engineer will have to make sure these areas are not affected.
It's not changing the software that is time-consuming. It's the validation.

Or this could be a non-issue at all, since their transmissions are known to learn the driving style of the owner over time. Maybe the press just doesn't have enough time to have the transmission adapt to more aggressive driving.
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
I can answer with confidence that this is a no, unless the downshifting issue is a pre-production flaw.
Transmission integration is actually very complicated because it affects the ride quality, fuel consumption, and emissions a lot. It will not be as simple as changing some code in the ECU. Will a quicker dowshift cause more jerky ride? Will the accelerated rev change impact the chemical composition of the exhaust? In the case of turbocharged engines, will it increase stress on the turbocharger? The drivetrain engineer will have to make sure these areas are not affected.
It's not changing the software that is time-consuming. It's the validation.

Or this could be a non-issue at all, since their transmissions are known to learn the driving style of the owner over time. Maybe the press just doesn't have enough time to have the transmission adapt to more aggressive driving.
Someone made a good point that Lexus sells a ton of these FWD only. That said if they are going to move the ES over to the sportier spectrum there is going to be a desire for more than FWD. AWD is obviously mostly sold in the NE, PNW and Central area....the biggest sales areas are the South Florida and Southern Cali regions ....

I do believe the take rate on the AWD Acura TLX is around 15% as a comparison.
Someone made a good point that Lexus sells a ton of these FWD only. That said if they are going to move the ES over to the sportier spectrum there is going to be a desire for more than FWD. AWD is obviously mostly sold in the NE, PNW and Central area....the biggest sales areas are the South Florida and Southern Cali regions ....

I do believe the take rate on the AWD Acura TLX is around 15% as a comparison.
Someone made a good point that Lexus sells a ton of these FWD only. That said if they are going to move the ES over to the sportier spectrum there is going to be a desire for more than FWD. AWD is obviously mostly sold in the NE, PNW and Central area....the biggest sales areas are the South Florida and Southern Cali regions ....

I do believe the take rate on the AWD Acura TLX is around 15% as a comparison.
One reason why manuals can be better. Automatic (CVT) is better suited to hybrids and electrics.
One reason why manuals can be better. Automatic (CVT) is better suited to hybrids and electrics.
One reason why manuals can be better. Automatic (CVT) is better suited to hybrids and electrics.
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
lsu5508
Krew just out of curiosity does Lexus ever make feedback driven changes between the time the media drives the vehicles and production? Im talking most about the downshifting delay on the 8 speed transmission which every single reviewer to date has pointed out as a major buzzkill. I understand no major transmission changes would probably be made but one or two reviewers said this could be corrected with a software update. Any thoughts?
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
Gecko
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
good to know, thanks for the info.
Gecko
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
good to know, thanks for the info.
Gecko
The Camry V6 launched with a few complaints about the shift logic, and I'm sure the ES uses the exact same transmission. There have since been 2 TSiBs for the fix and Camry owners are quite happy now. I assume the ES should be good to go for production - maybe these were early prototypes that had not been reflashed for press drives (unfortunately).
good to know, thanks for the info.
Lexus has really nailed the design here. The last generation I was a fan A pillar back intially and more so after the MMC. Nothing awkward about the front here.
Lexus has really nailed the design here. The last generation I was a fan A pillar back intially and more so after the MMC. Nothing awkward about the front here.
Lexus has really nailed the design here. The last generation I was a fan A pillar back intially and more so after the MMC. Nothing awkward about the front here.
S
ssun30
1) First point is false. The hump is much more pronounced than a regular exhaust hump. The height is what you'd expect from a RWD or AWD car. If they didn't prepare it for the axle then they are just wasting valuable leg room in the rear.
Well - I haven't step inside the Lexus ES yet. But from pictures - the hump size is similar to those of the Acura 1G/2G TSX and 3G TL, which never offered AWD. My biggest point of all this is - a lot of people are using a "hump" as evidence for AWD when there are tons of cars with "humps" that never got it.

Secondly - all this talk about the future process of the ES is tiring. We are all speculating on a car that isn't even on sale yet. That's where I'll agree with you - lets wait and see. No one knows if the car is going to have AWD or Turbo.

Side note - I'm not saying the car isn't going to go Turbo. I'm saying it won't go Turbo in 1-3 years like some people here are alluding to. 1-2 years to switch out an engine is ridiculously bad business. At that time-point - they are better off just introducing it with a Turbo.

ssun30
It has nothing to do with the core image of the car, or trying to favor the enthusiasts for that matter (seriously, what kind of enthusiast would choose a turbo 4 vs. a naturally aspirated V6?).
The Lexus ES has a core image. Its design to be a Lexus ES. I think we tend to forget the Lexus ES is designed as a non-enthusiasts type vehicle. The Lexus ES is sold insanely well because the core image of the car appeals to tons of people. There is a reason why Toyota is very careful with this 7G ES. Evidence of it is: the price and the design.

What kind of enthusiasts would choose a Inline 4 Turbo over N/A V6? Tons would. This is why the STi and EVO sells so well. This is why the Civic Type R sells over sticker and people demanded it in the USA. This is why the S12, S13, S14 and S15 are so popular.

To restrict being a car enthusiasts to V6 and above is merely false.

Levi
There is a difference between F4-T (FWD-based AWD) and F4-L (RWD-based AWD), where the buyer of the later won't substitute for the former. And no buyer complains about the new E AMG or new M5 being AWD only. It is likely, should there be a hypothetical GS-F with turbo V8, it will not sell because of the lack of AWD. If cars sell thanks to Marketing, RWD is so yesterday. Anyone not interested in AWD, will not care if it is FWD. Proof by case is the BMW X1, that never sold as well.

As for SUVs, unfortunately they do not have significantly more clearance.
RWD is not so yesterday. RWD is still the main drive-train of choice among purist car enthusiasts. If RWD is so yesterday, car enthusiasts would be flocking to FWD and AWD cars now. The difference with high performance cars with insane amount of torque, such as AMG and M cars, are that they need the AWD to put down the power. They will perform poorly if AWD isn't equipped. There is a reason why Teslas are all AWD as well. A RWD Tesla just shred its rear tires.

SUVs, on average, have more clearance. My comment was directed towards AWD ES. I was referencing - if a person needs AWD, they wouldn't buy it on an ES but rather on a SUV. You'll get more space and clearance.
S
ssun30
1) First point is false. The hump is much more pronounced than a regular exhaust hump. The height is what you'd expect from a RWD or AWD car. If they didn't prepare it for the axle then they are just wasting valuable leg room in the rear.
Well - I haven't step inside the Lexus ES yet. But from pictures - the hump size is similar to those of the Acura 1G/2G TSX and 3G TL, which never offered AWD. My biggest point of all this is - a lot of people are using a "hump" as evidence for AWD when there are tons of cars with "humps" that never got it.

Secondly - all this talk about the future process of the ES is tiring. We are all speculating on a car that isn't even on sale yet. That's where I'll agree with you - lets wait and see. No one knows if the car is going to have AWD or Turbo.

Side note - I'm not saying the car isn't going to go Turbo. I'm saying it won't go Turbo in 1-3 years like some people here are alluding to. 1-2 years to switch out an engine is ridiculously bad business. At that time-point - they are better off just introducing it with a Turbo.

ssun30
It has nothing to do with the core image of the car, or trying to favor the enthusiasts for that matter (seriously, what kind of enthusiast would choose a turbo 4 vs. a naturally aspirated V6?).
The Lexus ES has a core image. Its design to be a Lexus ES. I think we tend to forget the Lexus ES is designed as a non-enthusiasts type vehicle. The Lexus ES is sold insanely well because the core image of the car appeals to tons of people. There is a reason why Toyota is very careful with this 7G ES. Evidence of it is: the price and the design.

What kind of enthusiasts would choose a Inline 4 Turbo over N/A V6? Tons would. This is why the STi and EVO sells so well. This is why the Civic Type R sells over sticker and people demanded it in the USA. This is why the S12, S13, S14 and S15 are so popular.

To restrict being a car enthusiasts to V6 and above is merely false.

Levi
There is a difference between F4-T (FWD-based AWD) and F4-L (RWD-based AWD), where the buyer of the later won't substitute for the former. And no buyer complains about the new E AMG or new M5 being AWD only. It is likely, should there be a hypothetical GS-F with turbo V8, it will not sell because of the lack of AWD. If cars sell thanks to Marketing, RWD is so yesterday. Anyone not interested in AWD, will not care if it is FWD. Proof by case is the BMW X1, that never sold as well.

As for SUVs, unfortunately they do not have significantly more clearance.
RWD is not so yesterday. RWD is still the main drive-train of choice among purist car enthusiasts. If RWD is so yesterday, car enthusiasts would be flocking to FWD and AWD cars now. The difference with high performance cars with insane amount of torque, such as AMG and M cars, are that they need the AWD to put down the power. They will perform poorly if AWD isn't equipped. There is a reason why Teslas are all AWD as well. A RWD Tesla just shred its rear tires.

SUVs, on average, have more clearance. My comment was directed towards AWD ES. I was referencing - if a person needs AWD, they wouldn't buy it on an ES but rather on a SUV. You'll get more space and clearance.

S
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