The Next Generation of Lexus Through 2020

[PeterF]

I also like this idea, along with the idea that one could still include a range of trims for the basic GS as mmcartalk says above.

 

[mmcartalk]

I also like this idea, along with the idea that one could still include a range of trims for the basic GS as mmcartalk says above.

Actually, that was Ian's idea, not mine....he gets the credit. I simply concurred with it.

 

[krew]

In my much less educated opinion, the ES has evolved into a very attractive sedan. It is very comfortable and luxurious. I have friends who love it. I enjoyed driving it when I have had one as a lowner car. I personally prefer the GS . I would go with the ES over the LaCrosse and MKZ and day for many reasons, one big one is reliability, the other is Luxury and overall comfort and service. The car is pretty quick too. I also like the way the ES looks compared with both of these other vehicles but in my mind reliability is huge. The ES is a great car, but there is a big need for a GS and removing the GS would really create a big gap in the Lexus lineup, especially with the LS becoming much pricier. I certainly would vote for more trims on the ES, but I really like the idea of many trims on the GS as well.

The ES is a fine car. It's basic-level luxury and ticks most of the boxes for someone looking for a "luxury car" at a reasonable price... but that doesn't mean it's a great car by any stretch. I've spent a lot of miles in GSs and ESs and there's just no comparison between the two. The GS is head and shoulders a better car for a little more money. Unfortunately, as has been well documented here, Lexus' sales strategy with these two sedans is broken.

This is something I've discussed at length with Lexus executives, and they have always insisted that people do not cross-shop the two cars. I don't believe that for a second -- instead, it's likely that Lexus is hampered by the longterm success of the ES. They want the volume of the ES -- up until the LaCrosse and MKZ, the ES was in a market segment of one. An entry-level luxury car that drove like a classic American flagship sedan. It didn't have a single worthwhile competitor for most of its history.

No car company has the guts to cancel a best-selling vehicle because it's hampering the sales of a more prestigious, more expensive model -- no matter how much sense it makes from a lineup standpoint.

 

[mmcartalk]

This is something I've discussed at length with Lexus executives, and they have always insisted that people do not cross-shop the two cars. I don't believe that for a second.

You are correct. I don't know what world those execs are living in. People, in fact, do cross-shop the ES/LaCrosse/MKZ every day. The LaCrosse did not get the reputation it has as the "American Lexus" for nothing. And the MKZ, while never having been very popular, is starting to get some traffic now from those who come to see the new Continental, and then note that the new MKZ has the same body-styling forward of the C-pillars....along with several other major improvements this year.

In fact, guess what?..............I may (?) be in the market myself for a new sedan later this year, and, currently, the ES, LaCrosse, MKZ, G80, Impala, and Kia Cadenza are also my own top prospects.....although the Lacrosse may have blown it with that E-Shifter LOL.

 

[krew]

In fact, guess what?..............I may (?) be in the market myself for a new sedan later this year, and, currently, the ES, LaCrosse, MKZ, G80, Impala, and Kia Cadenza are also my own top prospects.....although the Lacrosse may have blown it with that E-Shifter LOL.

I only see one option there, MM. :innocent:

 

[zeusus]

This is an awesome thread thank you so much OP for taking the time to break it all down.

A little disappointing that the only new model that will be introduced in the coming years til 2020 is the UX.

Any news on a convertible coupe or a sports car that would compete in the MB SLK category?

 

[meth.ix]

Any news on a convertible coupe or a sports car that would compete in the MB SLK category?

So like a Supra-based Lexus? That would be pretty cool, but the Supra is co-made by BMW, which is producing the Z4 successor from it, making a Lexus from the model a direct competitor to it.

 

[zeusus]

So like a Supra-based Lexus? That would be pretty cool, but the Supra is co-made by BMW, which is producing the Z4 successor from it, making a Lexus from the model a direct competitor to it.

Just something that competes in the small two seater sports car category MB SLK. Lexus had a concept rendering a long time ago which was pretty cool, never amounted to anything.

I don't really like to compare everything to a Supra, unless its named a Supra, sorry.

 

[Carmaker1]

Not that this is specific to the Lexus brand (unfortunately), but I now feel comfortable posting this here, but only as thumbnails to prevent non-users from grabbing it (like blogs, except for Kaizen Factor).

 

[Brandon B]

Not that this is specific to the Lexus brand (unfortunately), but I now feel comfortably posting this here, but only as thumbnails to prevent non-users from grabbing it (like blogs, except for Kaizen Factor).

View attachment 2195 View attachment 2194 View attachment 2193

Based on that info it doesn't look as if the 4Runner is changing at all. The dates seem typical of a normal model year change. I was hoping for something new.

 

[Carmaker1]

Based on that info it doesn't look as if the 4Runner is changing at all. The dates seem typical of a normal model year change. I was hoping for something new.

That is not accurate, as the reason the 2017 4Runner barely went on sale in December 2016, was due to a change in airbags delaying it a little. I don't see how any of these "seem" or don't seem "typical" of a "normal" model year change.

Toyota is not going to rebadge the 4Runner as the Hilux Surf without somewhat updating it. I already said that it goes into production in August, which in knowing Toyota's 2 month lead time between Job #1 and start of sales, it correlated with an October 2017 release. I have now confirmed that.

The GX is not going to be introduced to JDM, not without some changes to it, which was required for the LX facelift as well. The improvements to the LX in 2010 and 2012, weren't enough to sell it alongside the Land Cruiser in JDM. Moderate differentiation in appearance between the Land Cruiser and LX, forced the amount of changes it got to separate them.

Unless Toyota has opted to introduce the updated N280 in Japan first as Hilux Surf in September 2017, then a U.S. 4Runner update in early 2018 for MY2019, I don't see how they will not be changing anything for MY 2018.

The 4Runner, Prado, and GX have been in their current forms since 2013. After 4 years, some form of improvement is warranted. Save for the Sequoia and delayed LS running the XF40 III ragged (2012-2017), nearly all Toyota products receive some attention after 4 years at most.

 

[zeusus]

Carmaker, will the UX be using the brand new global architecture ?

 

[Brandon B]

That is not accurate, as the reason the 2017 4Runner barely went on sale in December 2016, was due to a change in airbags delaying it a little. I don't see how any of these "seem" or don't seem "typical" of a "normal" model year change.

Toyota is not going to rebadge the 4Runner as the Hilux Surf without somewhat updating it. I already said that it goes into production in August, which in knowing Toyota's 2 month lead time between Job #1 and start of sales, it correlated with an October 2017 release. I have now confirmed that.

The GX is not going to be introduced to JDM, not without some changes to it, which was required for the LX facelift as well. The improvements to the LX in 2010 and 2012, weren't enough to sell it alongside the Land Cruiser in JDM. Moderate differentiation in appearance between the Land Cruiser and LX, forced the amount of changes it got to separate them.

Unless Toyota has opted to introduce the updated N280 in Japan first as Hilux Surf in September 2017, then a U.S. 4Runner update in early 2018 for MY2019, I don't see how they will not be changing anything for MY 2018.

The 4Runner, Prado, and GX have been in their current forms since 2013. After 4 years, some form of improvement is warranted. Save for the Sequoia and delayed LS running the XF40 III ragged (2012-2017), nearly all Toyota products receive some attention after 4 years at most.

Thank you for the information/correction. I was being more pessimistic unfortunately. I am a huge 4R fan and have been waiting patiently for a new model with some kind of drivetrain improvement. I will be curious if it carries on with only cosmetic tweaks, or possibly a new powertrain (hopefully not the same combo the Tacoma received last year).

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

Any news on a convertible coupe or a sports car that would compete in the MB SLK category?

LOL! Don't get me started on that subject! Over the years, I've written at least 3 op-ed pieces urging Lexus to do this, both on my.IS and on Kaizen Factor. One Lexus executive told me point-blank that it would be a waste of the company's time and resources going into that rapidly-shrinking segment. And, much as I hate to admit is, he's right. The rise of the crossover SUV has brought on the fall of the coupe and convertible. Mazda had to team up with Fiat to make the 4th-gen (ND) MX-5 Miata a reality. BMW couldn't make a go of their 4th-gen small Z roadster (Z3 / Z4) unless it teamed up with Toyota. And, rumor has it, Mercedes will kill the E Class Coupe and Convertible once the just-launched 5th-gen (C213/A213) models run their course about 7 years from now.

 

[Carmaker1]

Carmaker, will the UX be using the brand new global architecture ?

Yes, it will be the first product using the C application of Toyota's New Global Architecture, likely being designated GA-C like GA-L. Why haven't we seen UX prototypes for that matter. Should be expecting them in late July again, as Toyota seems to like deliberately expose testing of new models then?

And no, anything like an SLC will not be coming. Just as Joaquin Ruhi said, it will likely not happen.

Thank you for the information/correction. I was being more pessimistic unfortunately. I am a huge 4R fan and have been waiting patiently for a new model with some kind of drivetrain improvement. I will be curious if it carries on with only cosmetic tweaks, or possibly a new powertrain (hopefully not the same combo the Tacoma received last year).

Certainly, I don't blame you, as Toyota have not entirely fair to their truck customer base at times, in regards to long-term planning. I don't have deep info on power trains outside of launch timing, but maybe you'd want to ask Gecko? I really think they are primarily focused on TNGA-F products and are merely counting on customers to take the bait (updates) and throw money at them for these refreshes in meantime, while they quietly work on new engines.

I'd honestly thank UZJGXR100 for a lot of this information and also Gecko, plus a few other people not from here.

And, rumor has it, Mercedes will kill the E Class Coupe and Convertible once the just-launched 5th-gen (C213/A213) models run their course about 7 years from now.

What? That is ridiculous of them. Why waste efforts on the C238 and A238, if they are so desperate to ditch them. Why are they not able to reason, that any bad sales are not solely due to market trends, but maybe that of the product in some aspects?

The C238 is very new and not even available for sale, that just because customers might have grown tired of the preceding C-Class based C207 E-Class Coupe (CLK to E-Coupe re-badge), doesn't warrant the need to cancel it.

Letting the Chinese market dictate trends, will bite automakers in the foot soon enough, the same way that it did with the U.S. in some respects.

 

[mmcartalk]

One Lexus executive told me point-blank that it would be a waste of the company's time and resources going into that rapidly-shrinking segment. And, much as I hate to admit is, he's right. The rise of the crossover SUV has brought on the fall of the coupe and convertible.

Buick, however, released the new Cascada convertible, and it seems to be doing reasonably well, at least in my area (D.C. suburbs). As I predicted when it was first proposed, it seems to be making a significant part of the market that used to go to the (slightly larger) Chrysler LeBaron/Sebring convertible.

Mazda had to team up with Fiat to make the 4th-gen (ND) MX-5 Miata a reality.

Miatas were a huge success long before Mazda even dreamed of teaming up with Fiat. The Fiat version, though, (IMO) gives it better front-end styling and, with the Italian-built-engine, a little more spunk under the hood, though engine reliability may not equal that of the Miata.

BMW couldn't make a go of their 4th-gen small Z roadster (Z3 / Z4) unless it teamed up with Toyota.

The Z3 faced a lot of competition, though, right from the start......from the Porsche Boxster, Mercedes SLK, and Audi TT convertibles.

 

[Carmaker1]

The Z3 faced a lot of competition, though, right from the start......from the Porsche Boxster, Mercedes SLK, and Audi TT convertibles.

The Z3 wasn't as affected by the TT, as was the later Z4. The TT roadster wasn't available until midway through the Z3's life, even as BMW completed design of the successive E85 Z4 in the summer of 1999.

Audi barely revealed the TT concept, as James Bond 007 was speeding around in his blue topless roadster from Q Branch and the first Z3s rolled out into showrooms. BMW got a head start on everyone, except for Mazda.

BMW never does a good job keeping quiet about future plans for that matter, as between that E37 and MB bragging about R170 SLK development in the early 1990s, they inspired Audi and Porsche to get in the game. In June 1992, BMW had just finished design of the Z3 and already the press were speculating about what the final design looked like and the plans to build it in the USA. MB's case was equally bad, with leaks 3 years before it was put on sale.
July 1, 1992 AutoCar UK rendering of Z3 and 17 Juli 1993 AutoBild rendering of 1997 SLK

Of those examples, the Mazda MX-5 inspired this resurrection of roadsters, but none have been able to come close or best it, save for Porsche that has much longer heritage in this area. The overpriced BMW Z1, super-expensive R129 500SL and 911 cabrio, were the only luxury 2-seaters in 1989, until the Miata forced them to rethink the idea of open-top motoring and take it downmarket. That day has come and gone at this point.

 

[Carmaker1]

I report more from MAG-X, but for now just a snippet.

This is what MAG-X believes to be, the 240B design for the 2019 ES 300h, which they believe will replace the GS300h in the JDM.

Edit: Changed image placement

 

[Gecko]

^that looks very aggressive for an ES, IMO!

 

[Carmaker1]

^that looks very aggressive for an ES, IMO!

Don't know if you just noticed, but it seems that a prototype of the refreshed NX might be on the front cover. I see text on there for レクサス NX and a white vehicle via inset. Those are spy shots of something there.

And to MAG-X's theory on the GS again, I say this honestly.