Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[flexus]

https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/27856804.html
toyota's cooperation with Tsinghua University（the best college in China）
http://www.toyota.com.cn/mediacenter/show.php?newsid=5110
Toyota begin supplying FCV components to Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers
And after 2020，the Chinese government will stop subsidizing BEV, but FCV will continue to receive subsidies.

How is Tsinghua written? Great to hear that China will push also for FC technology. Now that Japanese goverment pours more money into hydrogen and South Korea has shown interest it's possible that in few years we have profitable fuel cell industry. I hope that EU would show some interest even if it is just toward commercial use.

 

[shizhi]

How is Tsinghua written? Great to hear that China will push also for FC technology. Now that Japanese goverment pours more money into hydrogen and South Korea has shown interest it's possible that in few years we have profitable fuel cell industry. I hope that EU would show some interest even if it is just toward commercial use.

Tsinghua University，清华 大学，both the President of PRC Xi Jinping and former President Hu Jintao graduated from Tsinghua University.
this is a report about the cooperation from Tsinghua University offical website
http://news.tsinghua.edu.cn/publish...090406917215461/20190422090406917215461_.html
and this is toyota china offical webiste，Akio Toyoda came to Tsinghua give a speech，and he drives 86 with audience
http://www.toyota.com.cn/brand/tsinghua/

 

[ssun30]

China is actually one of the biggest pushers for FCV technology. We just never hear of it because a lot of the funding are still spent in research and commercial activities are limited. In fact FCVs receive by far the greatest amount of subsidy per vehicle, there are just not many of them.

China pushes hydrogen tech very strongly because we produce a big surplus of hydrogen as a by-product from chemical plants. Plus we are also interested in extraction of undersea clathrates in our EEZ, the very reason Japan and South Korea are pushing Hydrogen Economy in the first place (and a big reason for a lot of territorial frictions)

After Premier Li's visit to the Hokkaido facility that produces the Mirai, there seems to be a deal with japanese companies for more extensive exchange in fuel cell tech.

 

[isanatori]

Earlier on this thread you mentioned that Toyota thought FCV was the future for passenger cars but they were derailed because the media described the company as boring. I mentioned I will never be interested in purchasing a FCV because the financial/economics without subsidies doesn't make sense. Why would I go for a FCV when I have to pay for hydrogen gas almost at the same cost as refueling my ICEVs with gasoline?

I wrote : Had Toyota stayed focused in their FC development plan, FC would be the absolute winner.
In this case Toyota would had addressed all the issues you described.
An FC that does not need hydrogen refueling infrastructure, has a huge driving range, it's the cheapest and safest choice.
But they failed.
That's what I said.

Now you are saying it is only through making better HSD gasoline engines can Toyota reduce emissions but moving toward BEV also has the same effect.

If consumers want BEV for the economis, why do you think it's not a good option for Toyota? I thought marketing and sales were all about figuring out what customers want (or will want down the road) and selling those products to them highlighting the value proposition?

What powers/advantages is Toyota giving away by selling BEVs? They are already in partnership with Panasonic for batteries, aren't they? Even on HSD, they are already sourcing batteries from partners I believe as oppose to making them in house.

So you want Toyota to not bring forth BEVs because they have to source the battery somewhere? I thought Toyota's R&D team expects solid state batteries to be a game changer and are in the process of commercializing these in a few years' time? What competitive advantage is Toyota losing again by shifting to BEV if they own battery patents and can source batteries at a large scale?

Toyota does not outsource NiMH and Lithium batteries. They are all built in house. Their investments so far are related covering the Kwh demand, responding to the increasing Hybrid sales.
That's only what they can do.

If they want to build BEV batteries and catch up Tesla then they have to plan a brand new concept and materialize it at flashing pace (x times the cost of normal pace development).
Inevitably, we are talking about an ill-fated investment.

 

[carguy420]

https://www.motorsport.com/wrc/news/toyota-wrc2-spec-yaris-makinen/4373504/
This interview with rally legend Tommi Makinen pretty much confirms the eventual arrival of a 1.6L 4 cylinder turbocharged engine, either fitted in the Yaris homologation rally car that Toyota have been talking about(probably the one in the spy shots taken not long ago) or the Corolla hot hatch or both.

 

[spwolf]

https://www.motorsport.com/wrc/news/toyota-wrc2-spec-yaris-makinen/4373504/
This interview with rally legend Tommi Makinen pretty much confirms the eventual arrival of a 1.6L 4 cylinder turbocharged engine, either fitted in the Yaris homologation rally car that Toyota have been talking about(probably the one in the spy shots taken not long ago) or the Corolla hot hatch or both.

It seems like they will put that 1.6l Turbo into many applications in the future.

 

[spwolf]

Toyota does not outsource NiMH and Lithium batteries. They are all built in house. Their investments so far are related covering the Kwh demand, responding to the increasing Hybrid sales.
That's only what they can do.

If they want to build BEV batteries and catch up Tesla then they have to plan a brand new concept and materialize it at flashing pace (x times the cost of normal pace development).
Inevitably, we are talking about an ill-fated investment.

Indeed... I expect them to do around 2m hybrids by the end of 2020, as they are increasing production of batteries worldwide.
Not sure if everyone is also aware that Panasonic and Toyota joined their battery companies and R&D into one this year, and everything Panasonic battery related and Toyota battery related will go into their JV.

Problem with BEVs is still $12k extra build cost compared to petrol engines, nobody wants to eat this cost until they have to... at the same time, Toyota is most profitable car company in the world while producing 1.6m hybrids, where nobody else can be profitable so they are not doing them either.

 

[spwolf]

of course, without Tesla/Panasonic JV... but Panasonic has booked losses on that even this year, so it is really not a great business to be in.

 

[flexus]

China is actually one of the biggest pushers for FCV technology. We just never hear of it because a lot of the funding are still spent in research and commercial activities are limited. In fact FCVs receive by far the greatest amount of subsidy per vehicle, there are just not many of them.

China pushes hydrogen tech very strongly because we produce a big surplus of hydrogen as a by-product from chemical plants. Plus we are also interested in extraction of undersea clathrates in our EEZ, the very reason Japan and South Korea are pushing Hydrogen Economy in the first place (and a big reason for a lot of territorial frictions)

After Premier Li's visit to the Hokkaido facility that produces the Mirai, there seems to be a deal with japanese companies for more extensive exchange in fuel cell tech.

How much the subsidy is. In Japan it is around 2m¥ or 20k$. Oh and what FCV models are available in China? In Japan it's only Mirai and Clarity. I believe Nexon will be available in next year as Hyundai makes come back to Japan with NEVs.
I hope the three nations will use the metan hydrogen for building emission free society and better future. Energy conflict would be far serious than disputing about tiny rocks.

 

[internalaudit]

I wrote : Had Toyota stayed focused in their FC development plan, FC would be the absolute winner.
In this case Toyota would had addressed all the issues you described.
An FC that does not need hydrogen refueling infrastructure, has a huge driving range, it's the cheapest and safest choice.
But they failed.
That's what I said.

Toyota does not outsource NiMH and Lithium batteries. They are all built in house. Their investments so far are related covering the Kwh demand, responding to the increasing Hybrid sales.
That's only what they can do.

If they want to build BEV batteries and catch up Tesla then they have to plan a brand new concept and materialize it at flashing pace (x times the cost of normal pace development).
Inevitably, we are talking about an ill-fated investment.

What fuel cell doesn't require hydrogen gas? You mean had they stayed focus, they would have discovered something that hasn't been discovered to date? I would be very interested in what kind of FC and what fuel it will have used.

A lot of people, like me, are staying on the sideline and not purchasing Tesla vehicles because I think they will be money pits past the warranty period. Most households, besides those who are very affluent or like to flaunt, will base their purchase decisions on economics and no way will I recoup my $70k Model 3 purchase compared to a base Lexus IS. I don't even want a regular ICEV because hybrids from Toyota/Lexus are likely going to have lower cost of ownership in the long run owing to the lack of more mechanical parts to breakdown.

Nikkei already reported the JV between Toyota and Panasonic for the Asian Operations (I believe) as spwolf mentioned.

I think the BEV race will be a marathon and not a sprint. Battery technology is everything as that's still one of the most expensive components. I am giving Toyota five more years and if it doesn't materialize, then I'll most definitely go with another BEV make.

 

[ssun30]

https://www.motorsport.com/wrc/news/toyota-wrc2-spec-yaris-makinen/4373504/
This interview with rally legend Tommi Makinen pretty much confirms the eventual arrival of a 1.6L 4 cylinder turbocharged engine, either fitted in the Yaris homologation rally car that Toyota have been talking about(probably the one in the spy shots taken not long ago) or the Corolla hot hatch or both.

That sounds much more interesting and reasonable than simply bolting a turbo onto the M15C Inline-3 (which is not simple by any means). Not a lot of manufacturers (if any) still make homologation specials these days and that will definitely set them apart.

 

[shizhi]

How much the subsidy is. In Japan it is around 2m¥ or 20k$. Oh and what FCV models are available in China? In Japan it's only Mirai and Clarity. I believe Nexon will be available in next year as Hyundai makes come back to Japan with NEVs.
I hope the three nations will use the metan hydrogen for building emission free society and better future. Energy conflict would be far serious than disputing about tiny rocks.

Passenger cars can receive a subsidy of up to 200,000 RMB.
and commercial vehicles for 300,000（light） or 500,000（heavy） RMB…

 

[spwolf]

That sounds much more interesting and reasonable than simply bolting a turbo onto the M15C Inline-3 (which is not simple by any means). Not a lot of manufacturers (if any) still make homologation specials these days and that will definitely set them apart.

it is not going to be homologation special though... this engine should be the basis of whole range of GRMN products.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

https://www.motorsport.com/wrc/news/toyota-wrc2-spec-yaris-makinen/4373504/
This interview with rally legend Tommi Makinen pretty much confirms the eventual arrival of a 1.6L 4 cylinder turbocharged engine, either fitted in the Yaris homologation rally car that Toyota have been talking about (probably the one in the spy shots taken not long ago) or the Corolla hot hatch or both.

It seems like they will put that 1.6l Turbo into many applications in the future. It is not going to be homologation special though... this engine should be the basis of whole range of GRMN products.

Indeed, a conversation the Netherland's AutoRAI.nl had with Toyota deputy chief engineer (presumably of the latest Corolla) Toshio Kanei in February of this year hinted that a Corolla GRMN powered by a 1.6-liter turbo was in the works. English-language commentary pieces on this appeared in Motor1.com and Jalopnik, among others. Fingers crossed that the powers-that-be at Toyota see fit to offer it in North America.

I'd certainly hope that a 1.6-liter turbo GRMN version of the 4th-gen Euro/Japanese Yaris sees the light as well. (To what extent it would or wouldn't be a homologation special is really a matter of semantics). I know we wouldn't see this in the States, but we can hope and dream that a version of our Maris (Mazda2 Yaris) with the larger 2.0 or 2.5 versions of the Skyactiv-G engine, a proper manual transmission and sportier suspension could fill that role.

Continuing on an armchair product-planning roll (or role, I guess either could apply), that rumored 1.6-liter 4-cylinder turbo would, in our crossover-crazy world, be a natural for a C-HR GRMN (holy alphabet soup, Batman!). Or for the rumored TNGA-B "baby C-HR" to be built in Valenciennes, France alongside the next Yaris. And don't forget the trademarked (but still unused) UX 250. We had assumed it would use the current Camry's A25A-FKS 2.5-liter 4, but with turboed engines joining hybrids in using "arbitrary equivalency" numbers, perhaps 1.6-liter turbo=250, much like 2-liter turbo=300 or 3.5-liter turbo=500 in other models?

 

[internalaudit]

What are the chances of a turbocharged engine in upcoming hybrids?

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

What are the chances of a turbocharged engine in upcoming hybrids?

That's an excellent question. I really don't know, and haven't heard any concrete rumors that such a move is even being considered by Toyota. It seems to me that the turbo + hybrid combination is just a needless extra layer of mechanical complexity. I'm sure a more engineering-savvy member of our community (such as @ssun30 ) could provide a better answer than mine.

 

[flexus]

What are the chances of a turbocharged engine in upcoming hybrids?

I have no degree in engineering but what I have understand is that Toyota purposely build big engines for hybrids. 1.8l, 2.0l and 2.5l engines are relatively big in displacement compared to 1.0TSI, 1.2TSI or 1.5TSI. This is because of Atkinson cycle. Idea is to push some air out of cylinder to make it burn better and achieve high efficiency. Less air and fuel means less power and torque. That is compensated with bigger displacement so it has power but also it's efficient when driving solely with engine. So it doesn't make sense to put more air to cylinder in Toyotas hybrid system. I have come to an understanding that Honda uses turbo in their hybrid but they have Series hybrid. Downsizing turbo is good but it has negative issues. For example small turbos like 1.0TSI, 0.9 on Renault and Dacia and 1.3 on Mercedes-Benz have worse WLTP ratings than Toyota NA 2.0. Turbo itself make engine efficient it gives just more power.
Alternative to hybrid turbo I would have PHEV with 1.6 turbo from Yaris in front and Electric motor on rear axel. Or if we use imagination bigger 4 cylinder, like 3.0-3.2. It would be so big that it should be V4. Porsche once did it so why can't TMC?

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

I have no degree in engineering but what I have understand is that Toyota purposely build big engines for hybrids. 1.8l, 2.0l and 2.5l engines are relatively big in displacement compared to 1.0TSI, 1.2TSI or 1.5TSI. This is because of Atkinson cycle. Idea is to push some air out of cylinder to make it burn better and achieve high efficiency. Less air and fuel means less power and torque. That is compensated with bigger displacement so it has power but also it's efficient when driving solely with engine. So it doesn't make sense to put more air to cylinder in Toyotas hybrid system.

Yes, I do recall reading something along those lines a while back, now that you mention it. Plus, the whole movement to turbocharge small-displacement engines is something of an end-run around engine size-based taxation schemes in China and parts of Europe, among other markets.

 

[flexus]

Plus, the whole movement to turbocharge small-displacement engines is something of an end-run around engine size-based taxation schemes in China and parts of Europe, among other markets.

Japan also has taxation based on displacement but efficient vehicles like TMC hybrids get discount up to 100%. I'm glad that EU's 95g restriction forces to think real solutions. It's fooling of consumer when sub litre engine gets over 7L/100km.

 

[isanatori]

What fuel cell doesn't require hydrogen gas? You mean had they stayed focus, they would have discovered something that hasn't been discovered to date? I would be very interested in what kind of FC and what fuel it will have used.

A lot of people, like me, are staying on the sideline and not purchasing Tesla vehicles because I think they will be money pits past the warranty period. Most households, besides those who are very affluent or like to flaunt, will base their purchase decisions on economics and no way will I recoup my $70k Model 3 purchase compared to a base Lexus IS. I don't even want a regular ICEV because hybrids from Toyota/Lexus are likely going to have lower cost of ownership in the long run owing to the lack of more mechanical parts to breakdown.

Nikkei already reported the JV between Toyota and Panasonic for the Asian Operations (I believe) as spwolf mentioned.

I think the BEV race will be a marathon and not a sprint. Battery technology is everything as that's still one of the most expensive components. I am giving Toyota five more years and if it doesn't materialize, then I'll most definitely go with another BEV make.

Considering it took 20 years hybrid powertrains getting mature, five years for BEV baterries development seems like 100m sprint race with hurdles. Shouldn't we as fans, be a bit more patient to our favorite company? They have lost 20 years from their plans. It will be impossible lifting considerably their technological level pace ahead of competition.

I am also disappointed we are not interested in our favorite company visionary activities.Rather, we are passionate about competition.
Seems not many people have seen skyjet. Some of the technologies could had been implemented IF... making BEVs virtually eclipsed by now.