Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[Will1991]

Personally I respect Toyota and I'm a huge fan, to give you some prespective, if Tesla Model 3 had a Toyota badge I would've one already even without superchargers, even my fathers allways had Toyota's (2 Corolla's, one Avensis).

I do respect Toyota, between other things, for being so forward thinking regarding hybrids 20 years ago (my sister has an Auris Hybrid), and that's one of the main reasons why I'm so vocal against not building BEV's! Remember they even sold the original RAV4 EV a long time, before anyone else, and as far as I know without any reliability issue! They choose to make something light years ahead of the competition (with HSD and the first RAV4 EV) and now they seem almost middle field regarding the next generation green propulsion. Even with FCEV Hyundai managed to do an SUV with more power, more range and sell it cheaper than the Mirai! So yes, I'm against whoever inside Toyota choose not to invest in BEV's.
Regarding battery evolution, in the last 10 years batteries technologies evolved a lot, they're a lot safer than they used to and they start to have decent energy densities.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I think Toyota simply wants to limit exposure to lithium-ion; they had to pay out big bucks for the "unintended acceleration" thing even though it wasn't proven they were at fault, as I understand it. The Shanghai Model S explosion has become a full-on meme in China; I've seen a short video cross-posted to Twitter where a young man is running around the city being stalked by exploding Teslas (and the explosions are always cross-cut with nuclear bomb test footage). There's been some talk even of banning Tesla in China because of this, although I doubt that will happen.

 

[flexus]

Personally I respect Toyota and I'm a huge fan, to give you some prespective, if Tesla Model 3 had a Toyota badge I would've one already even without superchargers, even my fathers allways had Toyota's (2 Corolla's, one Avensis).

I do respect Toyota, between other things, for being so forward thinking regarding hybrids 20 years ago (my sister has an Auris Hybrid), and that's one of the main reasons why I'm so vocal against not building BEV's! Remember they even sold the original RAV4 EV a long time, before anyone else, and as far as I know without any reliability issue! They choose to make something light years ahead of the competition (with HSD and the first RAV4 EV) and now they seem almost middle field regarding the next generation green propulsion. Even with FCEV Hyundai managed to do an SUV with more power, more range and sell it cheaper than the Mirai! So yes, I'm against whoever inside Toyota choose not to invest in BEV's.
Regarding battery evolution, in the last 10 years batteries technologies evolved a lot, they're a lot safer than they used to and they start to have decent energy densities.

I don't how much Auris or Corolla HV costs in Portugal but it's 27k € in Finland. That's the beauty of Toyota. It is actually affordable. Okay BEV is better so what's chapest? Leaf around 33k with goverment money. VW brings I.D. hatchback at 36k and they sell it at loss of 3k. I don't think Toyota would bring EVs before they could attach starting price of 29k in Western Europe. Marginally selling EVs pollute more as they take production capacity of batteries from HV. If you doupt me about such cheap EV name cheaper HV than Yaris or Corolla. Toyota is saying they would bring down price of Mirai from 7 million ¥ to 3 million ¥. If they can achive that it is possible with EVs. What comes to Mirai it's JC08 range is 600km and I think it fights well with 5 years younger Hyundai.

 

[isanatori]

If Toyota didn't believe in hybrids future, they would had never begun making hybrids.

They are still making only 1.5 million hybrids annually.

They are going to need quite several orders of magnitude the Kwh battery production pace they are currently able to.

And you guys believe it is good idea to cut resources from their plans in order to bring BEVs at markets! But BEVs and plug in are not in their macro plans!

They were forced to built BEV batteries because of legislation.

Toyota were forced to deviate from their plans. Firstly, when they begun the fun to drive farse and now manufacturing BEVs. Toyota has lost huge resources, with all this crap.

They have yet to gain anything from their investment.

Both BEVs and Fuel cells have very long way to go before being a viable alternative to HSDs.

Dieselgate proved that diesels should had been dead 20 years ago.

If Chinese companies have the ability to break the Kwh production records exponentially at an endlessly pace then good for them.
Toyota will be there along with Tesla and the whole car industry to buy the Chinese batteries.

 

[internalaudit]

Not everyone is not willing to pay 10-20% premium for a BEV. I definitely would.

 

[internalaudit]

Toyota has been giving lessons the whole industrial world, how great company it is. Such great that, it does not deserve us.

Toyota (fans?) instead of showing some respect to Toyota, they are expressing negativity in favor of press!

Press had been really hostile against the prius introduction, yet it is Toyota being vindicated against press.

Of course, it's a given that press has no reason to go against the ongoing Goebbelist practices of the German lobby, as they have been getting uncovered since 2015.
Press is supporting them by hosting their ads and testing /benchmarking their products.

Everyone's responsible for his own actions and deserve the appropriate respect according to his actions.

Yet us, instead of keeping a cautious stance towards Toyota criticism, we are putting such pressure on Toyota, as if we are fighting them!

Toyota dislikes BEV batteries for some reasons. But you want to change that!
I have seen many positive comments about Mazda skyactive (partial) HCCI engines and Mazda deserves credit nevertheless.

But, we have yet to see HCCI on HSD s too! Not only that, but the HSD makes the HCCI adaptation even more easy! Actually, the more HSD improves, the easiest will be possible for ICE engines to become more efficient. There are so many components in HSD gasoline engines that could be removed or replaced with more fragile ones!

In Toyotas HSD book, ICE has a great future in the world of zero emission vehicles.

I conclude with probably the most wise comment I have ever read on forums. Instead of respecting Toyota, we are ridiculing them in favor of the <Germans the crooks>. That's how I apprehend spwolf comment.

spwolf deserves huge credit for his genius. If I could, I would have clicked Like some dozens of times!

Look, Toyota is a public company and that means profits for shareholders. As long as it can sell BEVs with a good margin, let it be.

I'm not forcing Toyota to change. If by 2024, there are no Toyota or Lexus' BEVs, I will go with other makes. It's that simple. With BEVs, there's likely going to be fewer issues than with transmissions/engines in ICEVs so Toyota's reliability advantage (aka premium) will take a slight (or significant hit).

 

[ssun30]

If Chinese companies have the ability to break the Kwh production records exponentially at an endlessly pace then good for them.
Toyota will be there along with Tesla and the whole car industry to buy the Chinese batteries.

The traction battery industry in China crashed last year due to several high profile fire incidents. Reduction of incentives also mean many manufacturers could no longer sell below cost. It's fair game for everyone.

 

[isanatori]

Look, Toyota is a public company and that means profits for shareholders. As long as it can sell BEVs with a good margin, let it be.

Toyota cannot afford to lose competitiveness. They begun wasting huge amounts of resources since 2000, when they scared of Jeremy Clarkson and the competition behind him, waging a war of destruction against the "boring Toyota" by ridiculing the prius 1 and the Lexus SC430 as a start. Toyota instead of defending their position, succumbed to the pressure by associating resources to build "better cars".
Had they focused on their macro plans, definitely they would advanced much more, making hydrogen tech the undisputed winner by now.

Eventually also, cars will fly in a few years. Road handling will be meaningless.

Will Toyota survive? Mr Akio Toyoda had made a strange comment about the matter. Who 's been remembering the weird comment of Mr Toyoda?

 

[isanatori]

The traction battery industry in China crashed last year due to several high profile fire incidents. Reduction of incentives also mean many manufacturers could no longer sell below cost. It's fair game for everyone.

I have realized that fires, car accidents, airbugs, unintended accelerations, etc have different gravity, depending on the badge and the country of origin.

Ongoing dieselgate scandals have zero impact on German Industry.
Tesla accidents are a similar case.
Chinese battery companies are not any different, because the whole BEV automotive industry, with Tesla exception, relies on Chinese batteries.

For example over 12 million of cars are recalled due to airbags causing at least 8 fatalities. Investigation is on going.

But, this time there is no Takata to destroy and bring down the head of Toyota into his knees, making him look like a piece of garbage in Japan, where dignity is everything, even now that Samurai Era is Past History.

This time airbags maker is German ZF.

Toyota cars are involved in the serious incidents too. This time though, it is the Narcissists protecting Toyota from being exposed, because they don't want to trigger comparisons between Japanese Takata and German ZF, raising suspicions about the double standards and risking another Gate getting uncovered.

I have done my homework and expanded these practices on World History and surprisingly I 've discovered history is making circles.
It is our western world the epitome of narcissism, through all the eras of human history.

Enjoy the article,
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money...iat-chrysler-honda-hyundai-toyota/3547909002/

 

[internalaudit]

Toyota cannot afford to lose competitiveness. They begun wasting huge amounts of resources since 2000, when they scared of Jeremy Clarkson and the competition behind him, waging a war of destruction against the "boring Toyota" by ridiculing the prius 1 and the Lexus SC430 as a start. Toyota instead of defending their position, succumbed to the pressure by associating resources to build "better cars".
Had they focused on their macro plans, definitely they would advanced much more, making hydrogen tech the undisputed winner by now.

Eventually also, cars will fly in a few years. Road handling will be meaningless.

Will Toyota survive? Mr Akio Toyoda had made a strange comment about the matter. Who 's been remembering the weird comment of Mr Toyoda?

So on one hand you say Toyota should be okay with hybrids and then now, on the other hand, you are saying they have to go FCV all the way so as not to lose competitiveness? There is a time and place for both FCVs and BEVs. Hybrids are good too (we have the RAV4 at 35 MPG) but even at 50 MPG, they are still much more expensive than charging a BEV when electricity is cheapest (usually off peak) in North America. There's also the engine that could be a reliability further down the road (like 30 years later for Toyotas lol).

Toyota's competitive advantage of undisputed reliability king will disintegrate with BEVs lacking engines and transmissions. Those two are notorious for expensive repair bills. Suspension and other major components in BEVs can easily be done by cheaper independent mechanics for all makes.

Car manufacturers will have to accept going back to longer periods before planned obsolescence because even affluent households (who are used to leasing luxury cars every 3-4 years) will realize they can hold on to their BEVs much longer than they could every do with modern ICEVs thanks to the complexities brought about by newer unproven technologies to meet CAFE and other emission requirements, for example, Honda's 1.5T and its motor oil fuel dilution.

There will always be households where money is no object, which is great, because I'd rather pick a used BEV (that meets most of my requirements) up in a few years' time for a song.

 

[isanatori]

So on one hand you say Toyota should be okay with hybrids and then now, on the other hand, you are saying they have to go FCV all the way so as not to lose competitiveness? There is a time and place for both FCVs and BEVs. Hybrids are good too (we have the RAV4 at 35 MPG) but even at 50 MPG, they are still much more expensive than charging a BEV when electricity is cheapest (usually off peak) in North America. There's also the engine that could be a reliability further down the road (like 30 years later for Toyotas lol).

Toyota's competitive advantage of undisputed reliability king will disintegrate with BEVs lacking engines and transmissions. Those two are notorious for expensive repair bills. Suspension and other major components in BEVs can easily be done by cheaper independent mechanics for all makes.

Car manufacturers will have to accept going back to longer periods before planned obsolescence because even affluent households (who are used to leasing luxury cars every 3-4 years) will realize they can hold on to their BEVs much longer than they could every do with modern ICEVs thanks to the complexities brought about by newer unproven technologies to meet CAFE and other emission requirements, for example, Honda's 1.5T and its motor oil fuel dilution.

There will always be households where money is no object, which is great, because I'd rather pick a used BEV (that meets most of my requirements) up in a few years' time for a song.

The turbo reference is unfortunate. Turbo and HSD don't mix. Turbo defies the purpose of HSD.

Also it is a disgrace mentioning what other companies do as a benchmark for Toyota.

But, I apologize for the confusion and I will try to be more clear.
Firstly, it is a given that Toyota's aim have always been to bring the fuel cell car to the masses, mostly for social economic reasons.

They cut down the Fuel cell components into two divisions and develop in parallel.
Division 1, bring the Fuel Cell powertrain (Hybrid Synergy Drive) into Market, as it's begun with prius introduction, in order to bring costs down.
Division 2 develop the FC stack and hydrogen storage.

15 years after the prius introduction, Toyota introduced the Mirai, which it's been a disaster.

Had Toyota succeeded addressing the hydrogen storage issue and stay focused on developing the hybrid components, they would accomplish their aim of mass marketing the FC vehicles and BEVs would had been incompetent. Toyota would had been the undisputed King.

But it didn't happen.

At the time Toyota introduced the Prius, press began a war against the Toyota "boring cars", causing damage and Toyota responded by wasting resources to more sporty cars, motorsports (Formula 1,etc) and trying to ditch the "boring" image stamp.

Tens of billions dollars and valuable time lost.

The Fuel cell target has been lost because Toyota lost their pace on their fuel cell plan and as a consequence, BEVs nullified FCs. Now Toyota will have to scrap their macroplan, build huge batteries and introduce BEVs. But they can't. Toyota can build batteries only for 1.5 m Hybrid cars.

Also, they cannot afford to strengthen Chinese battery suppliers.

Toyota have been always building technology inside. If this change Japanese suppliers Aisin, Denso will disappear because Chinese battery makers will get their place.

Toyota is going to get devoured because since 2000 they had to slow their fc development pace due to German Industry offensive against them.

I tried to be as clear as I could.

 

[internalaudit]

The turbo reference is unfortunate. Turbo and HSD don't mix. Turbo defies the purpose of HSD.

Also it is a disgrace mentioning what other companies do as a benchmark for Toyota.

But, I apologize for the confusion and I will try to be more clear.
Firstly, it is a given that Toyota's aim have always been to bring the fuel cell car to the masses, mostly for social economic reasons.

They cut down the Fuel cell components into two divisions and develop in parallel.
Division 1, bring the Fuel Cell powertrain (Hybrid Synergy Drive) into Market, as it's begun with prius introduction, in order to bring costs down.
Division 2 develop the FC stack and hydrogen storage.

15 years after the prius introduction, Toyota introduced the Mirai, which it's been a disaster.

Had Toyota succeeded addressing the hydrogen storage issue and stay focused on developing the hybrid components, they would accomplish their aim of mass marketing the FC vehicles and BEVs would had been incompetent. Toyota would had been the undisputed King.

But it didn't happen.

At the time Toyota introduced the Prius, press began a war against the Toyota "boring cars", causing damage and Toyota responded by wasting resources to more sporty cars, motorsports (Formula 1,etc) and trying to ditch the "boring" image stamp.

Tens of billions dollars and valuable time lost.

The Fuel cell target has been lost because Toyota lost their pace on their fuel cell plan and as a consequence, BEVs nullified FCs. Now Toyota will have to scrap their macroplan, build huge batteries and introduce BEVs. But they can't. Toyota can build batteries only for 1.5 m Hybrid cars.

Also, they cannot afford to strengthen Chinese battery suppliers.

Toyota have been always building technology inside. If this change Japanese suppliers Aisin, Denso will disappear because Chinese battery makers will get their place.

Toyota is going to get devoured because since 2000 they had to slow their fc development pace due to German Industry offensive against them.

I tried to be as clear as I could.

So you are saying that BEV and FCV are mutually exclusive? I cannot honestly believe that. Both can serve their individual purpose. FCV only makes sense if there were excess green energy / electricity produced during off-peak hours that cannot be stored (storage could be in the form of large batteries or BEVS charging) so the electricity can be used to form hydrogen gas. This will still likely need special storage and maybe pipelines but I'm not technical enough to know the details.

I don't even intend to charge my future BEV at a charging station because it will cost almost as much as refueling a fuel efficient ICEV. I will only charge it at home, at night when the electricity rates are low so a charging station network to me is not very important. I want at least a 280 km winter driving range BEV to account for my household's driving needs.

I will not own a FCV because the cost to refuel with hydrogen gas is going to be much costlier than charging a BEV at home here in Ontario, Canada. I do care about the environment but not to the point that I will be wasting my household's resources trying to drive emission-free. I recycle properly, don't waste electricity, do not idle my car as much as possible even during winter and treat most people with respect. I think I am already doing a greater good than many people who pretend to be green with their BEVs or FCVs (because they got some subsidies) but do nothing else.

Again, what Toyota is not realizing is there is a market for BEV even at a 10-20% premium over regular ICEVs because people like me will take into consideration savings on fuel cost and a few maintenance or repair issues that will be non-existent on BEVs. Of course people like may be the minority but what is 20% on a $50k vehicle, that is just $10k that I can recoup in a few years not having to refuel with gasoline?

 

[shizhi]

i don't know what the next toyota EV car is…
but in China，there will be more PHEV cars，like avalon，rav4，izoa/chr，corolla/levin…
and toyota china consider bring FCV coaster（a bus） into China

 

[Will1991]

FCEV in heavy transport industries makes a lot of sense, as there are legislation capping some weight limits, cutting profit if batteries weight a lot.
Also, double shift trucks and buses can’t wait the same as a convencional car.

 

[flexus]

View attachment 3247 i don't know what the next toyota EV car is…
but in China，there will be more PHEV cars，like avalon，rav4，izoa/chr，corolla/levin…
and toyota china consider bring FCV coaster（a bus） into China

I read Nikkei article about China pushing fuel cell technology. Is it true?

 

[isanatori]

So you are saying that BEV and FCV are mutually exclusive? I cannot honestly believe that. Both can serve their individual purpose. FCV only makes sense if there were excess green energy / electricity produced during off-peak hours that cannot be stored (storage could be in the form of large batteries or BEVS charging) so the electricity can be used to form hydrogen gas. This will still likely need special storage and maybe pipelines but I'm not technical enough to know the details.

I don't even intend to charge my future BEV at a charging station because it will cost almost as much as refueling a fuel efficient ICEV. I will only charge it at home, at night when the electricity rates are low so a charging station network to me is not very important. I want at least a 280 km winter driving range BEV to account for my household's driving needs.

I will not own a FCV because the cost to refuel with hydrogen gas is going to be much costlier than charging a BEV at home here in Ontario, Canada. I do care about the environment but not to the point that I will be wasting my household's resources trying to drive emission-free. I recycle properly, don't waste electricity, do not idle my car as much as possible even during winter and treat most people with respect. I think I am already doing a greater good than many people who pretend to be green with their BEVs or FCVs (because they got some subsidies) but do nothing else.

Again, what Toyota is not realizing is there is a market for BEV even at a 10-20% premium over regular ICEVs because people like me will take into consideration savings on fuel cost and a few maintenance or repair issues that will be non-existent on BEVs. Of course people like may be the minority but what is 20% on a $50k vehicle, that is just $10k that I can recoup in a few years not having to refuel with gasoline?

Toyota does not build trucks and vehicles where FCVs have an advantage. Also they are not suppliers. This is not how they make money. Toyota builds lightweight passenger cars.
Furthermore, they have to rely on government politics, resources, determination and efficiency to bring hydrogen refueling infrastructure on retail market. That's not how serious companies make progress. Toyota has lost their FCV target.

They have to raise the efficiency and lower the NOx CO2 emissions of their HSD gasoline engines as much as possible. That's the only thing they can.

I don't understand your thinking that selling BEVs are a good option for Toyota. I want to ask, what's the point of Toyota giving their power to their competitors by selling BEVs? It is like Toyota are shooting bullets at their own feet!

 

[shizhi]

I read Nikkei article about China pushing fuel cell technology. Is it true?

https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/27856804.html
toyota's cooperation with Tsinghua University（the best college in China）
http://www.toyota.com.cn/mediacenter/show.php?newsid=5110
Toyota begin supplying FCV components to Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers
And after 2020，the Chinese government will stop subsidizing BEV, but FCV will continue to receive subsidies.

 

[internalaudit]

Toyota does not build trucks and vehicles where FCVs have an advantage. Also they are not suppliers. This is not how they make money. Toyota builds lightweight passenger cars.
Furthermore, they have to rely on government politics, resources, determination and efficiency to bring hydrogen refueling infrastructure on retail market. That's not how serious companies make progress. Toyota has lost their FCV target.

They have to raise the efficiency and lower the NOx CO2 emissions of their HSD gasoline engines as much as possible. That's the only thing they can.

I don't understand your thinking that selling BEVs are a good option for Toyota. I want to ask, what's the point of Toyota giving their power to their competitors by selling BEVs? It is like Toyota are shooting bullets at their own feet!

Earlier on this thread you mentioned that Toyota thought FCV was the future for passenger cars but they were derailed because the media described the company as boring. I mentioned I will never be interested in purchasing a FCV because the financial/economics without subsidies doesn't make sense. Why would I go for a FCV when I have to pay for hydrogen gas almost at the same cost as refueling my ICEVs with gasoline?

Now you are saying it is only through making better HSD gasoline engines can Toyota reduce emissions but moving toward BEV also has the same effect.

If consumers want BEV for the economis, why do you think it's not a good option for Toyota? I thought marketing and sales were all about figuring out what customers want (or will want down the road) and selling those products to them highlighting the value proposition?

What powers/advantages is Toyota giving away by selling BEVs? They are already in partnership with Panasonic for batteries, aren't they? Even on HSD, they are already sourcing batteries from partners I believe as oppose to making them in house.

So you want Toyota to not bring forth BEVs because they have to source the battery somewhere? I thought Toyota's R&D team expects solid state batteries to be a game changer and are in the process of commercializing these in a few years' time? What competitive advantage is Toyota losing again by shifting to BEV if they own battery patents and can source batteries at a large scale?

 

[shizhi]

I think Toyota simply wants to limit exposure to lithium-ion; they had to pay out big bucks for the "unintended acceleration" thing even though it wasn't proven they were at fault, as I understand it. The Shanghai Model S explosion has become a full-on meme in China; I've seen a short video cross-posted to Twitter where a young man is running around the city being stalked by exploding Teslas (and the explosions are always cross-cut with nuclear bomb test footage). There's been some talk even of banning Tesla in China because of this, although I doubt that will happen.

It is impossible to ban Tesla in China，if you know Tesla's factory is being built in Shanghai，and according to media reports, the first car（model 3） will be produced in September this year.（or maybe next year）

 

[Will1991]

Personally it’s hard for me to understand Toyota’s excuse as they had to choose between 1.5M hybrids or 200k or so BEV’s.
They are literally saying, the biggest car manufacturer in the world with the biggest cash available, can’t ramp up battery production?
They have the money, they have the lithium mines, they have the partnership with a top battery producer, they clearly have the customers (all the Prius owners that went for another car) for it but somehow they can’t scale up production?
I don’t buy it.

I must agree with Ian, maybe they’re just afraid of the possible bad publicity but even Nissan hasn’t got any big issue with a lot less R&D and battery know-how.

Regarding being boring? Why only now they’re making a Hybrid sports car (GR Sport)? Why not making a supercar out of an FCEV?