Official 7th Generation ES Thread: Full Reveal on 4/25 in Beijing

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mediumhot

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How would you want Camry to succeed everywhere? It is not supposed to - it is too large vehicle for Europe and Japan and way too expensive for South Asia, India or South America.

Dont let the assumptions fool you, Camry is #1 best selling midsized sedan in the world:
https://focus2move.com/world-best-selling-mid-size-cars/

It sold 300k outside USA.
Mazda 6 is as big as Camry, so is Mondeo. 2017 Mazda 6 European sales almost outsold total number of Camrys ever sold in Europe. Anyway for Camry's demise in Europe I solely blame the design for being too NA centric much like ES. Lexus has never had the guts to bring ES to go head to head with GS in Europe so we will never know what could have happened between the two.

Interior will be make it or break it game for ES on global scale. Upgrading the interior to GS quality will most likely mean hefty increase in price which then leaves US without affordable Lexus midsize sedan. I don't know its weird to guess at this time what's actually going on.
 

Gecko

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^The ace in the hole for the ES is going to be TNGA, and sharing a platform with the Camry and Avalon, so it is inherently cheaper to produce than GS from the beginning. Lexus can significantly invest in the interior and options like F-Sport, and the car will still be a fraction of the cost of the E Class. They can put in a 12.3" infotainment screen, stitched leather dash and doors, wood grain and make the car feel very expensive from the inside... those are cosmetic things and that tech is also shared across RX, LS, etc. It's such an easy formula for Lexus.

Now, yesterday, we got the details on Toyota's new Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system and the new eFour AWD systems. My biggest struggle with Dynamic Torque Control (current system) is that it requires a wheel to slip before power is distributed to the rear end, so, for spirited driving, you essentially have to invoke torque steer or break traction before the system kicks in. Not ideal, not confidence inspiring, not fun to drive.

One critical component for the ES is going to be whether or not Lexus has developed a full-time AWD system with an active torque split. This will prevent torque steer and help the car behave and drive like one that is not as front heavy, FWD-biased. Something like a 50/50 or 40/60 torque distribution front/rear would help to make everyone forget the GS ever even existed, and it would expand the upper limits of an ES F Sport model.

The press release reads as follows:

The new Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system is used in gasoline engine vehicles. By adopting a torque vectoring mechanism, which independently distributes torque to the left and right rear wheels according to driving conditions, the Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system enables the driver to steer the vehicle exactly as intended. It achieves high off-road performance even on the toughest roads. It also incorporates a disconnect mechanism, which features the world's first ratchet-type dog clutches* on both the front and rear wheel shafts. These clutches stop the drive system rotations, which transmit driving force to rear wheels when in 2WD mode, significantly reducing energy loss and improving fuel efficiency.
It sounds to me like the system still defaults to 100% FWD until there is a loss of traction - not ideal for performance driving. HOWEVER, I think it's reasonable for Toyota to have engineered a version of this system that will fully lock the power split between front and rear... perhaps in Sport or Sport + mode. It could also be standard on F-Sport models.

Something like this is literally a must-have for the next gen RX or ES as they continue to grow in size and receive more horsepower.

Moreover, both the Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system and the new E-Four system feature AWD Integrated Management (AIM), which harmonizes engine, transmission, braking, and 4WD systems to offer superb handling and stability regardless of road surface conditions.
This quote makes me wonder if one of the "AIM" settings could be a Sport or Sport+ mode where the torque is actively split front and rear. I assume we will know more with ES debut in a few months.
 

spwolf

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Mazda 6 is as big as Camry, so is Mondeo. 2017 Mazda 6 European sales almost outsold total number of Camrys ever sold in Europe. Anyway for Camry's demise in Europe I solely blame the design for being too NA centric much like ES. Lexus has never had the guts to bring ES to go head to head with GS in Europe so we will never know what could have happened between the two.

Interior will be make it or brake it game for ES on global scale. Upgrading the interior to GS quality will most likely mean hefty increase in price which then leaves US without affordable Lexus midsize sedan. I don't know its weird to guess at this time what's actually going on.
I am not sure if you realize that Camry was not sold in EU? It sells in Russia and Ukraine only. We have Avensis to sell in Europe.
And actually Camry in Russia outsells all of European Mazda 6 sales for 2017 :).

But sure, I would much prefer hybrid Mazda 6 than Camry.
 

spwolf

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^The ace in the hole for the ES is going to be TNGA, and sharing a platform with the Camry and Avalon, so it is inherently cheaper to produce than GS from the beginning. Lexus can significantly invest in the interior and options like F-Sport, and the car will still be a fraction of the cost of the E Class. They can put in a 12.3" infotainment screen, stitched leather dash and doors, wood grain and make the car feel very expensive from the inside... those are cosmetic things and that tech is also shared across RX, LS, etc. It's such an easy formula for Lexus.

Now, yesterday, we got the details on Toyota's new Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system and the new eFour AWD systems. My biggest struggle with Dynamic Torque Control (current system) is that it requires a wheel to slip before power is distributed to the rear end, so, for spirited driving, you essentially have to invoke torque steer or break traction before the system kicks in. Not ideal, not confidence inspiring, not fun to drive.

One critical component for the ES is going to be whether or not Lexus has developed a full-time AWD system with an active torque split. This will prevent torque steer and help the car behave and drive like one that is not as front heavy, FWD-biased. Something like a 50/50 or 40/60 torque distribution front/rear would help to make everyone forget the GS ever even existed, and it would expand the upper limits of an ES F Sport model.

The press release reads as follows:



It sounds to me like the system still defaults to 100% FWD until there is a loss of traction - not ideal for performance driving. HOWEVER, I think it's reasonable for Toyota to have engineered a version of this system that will fully lock the power split between front and rear... perhaps in Sport or Sport + mode. It could also be standard on F-Sport models.

Something like this is literally a must-have for the next gen RX or ES as they continue to grow in size and receive more horsepower.



This quote makes me wonder if one of the "AIM" settings could be a Sport or Sport+ mode where the torque is actively split front and rear. I assume we will know more with ES debut in a few months.
Sure when it comes to the ES, but keep in mind that pricing is generally a marketing decision. Lets hope they use similar pricing as in US, where it is priced around IS. That would be awesome.

I think current Dynamic Torque system does help a bit when wheels are rotating at different speed (corner) but where it fails completely is when one back wheel is in air, too much power is lost for other wheel to be able to move the vehicle... but now that should work fine. That integration system - AIM should certainly improve it all.

But this specific system is for UX and similar vehicles... it does not mean that ES will get it - still a lot of AWD systems missing here:

On UX system there is certainly no center diff in the pic.

 

PeterF

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^The ace in the hole for the ES is going to be TNGA, and sharing a platform with the Camry and Avalon, so it is inherently cheaper to produce than GS from the beginning. Lexus can significantly invest in the interior and options like F-Sport, and the car will still be a fraction of the cost of the E Class. They can put in a 12.3" infotainment screen, stitched leather dash and doors, wood grain and make the car feel very expensive from the inside... those are cosmetic things and that tech is also shared across RX, LS, etc. It's such an easy formula for Lexus.

Now, yesterday, we got the details on Toyota's new Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD system and the new eFour AWD systems. My biggest struggle with Dynamic Torque Control (current system) is that it requires a wheel to slip before power is distributed to the rear end, so, for spirited driving, you essentially have to invoke torque steer or break traction before the system kicks in. Not ideal, not confidence inspiring, not fun to drive.

One critical component for the ES is going to be whether or not Lexus has developed a full-time AWD system with an active torque split. This will prevent torque steer and help the car behave and drive like one that is not as front heavy, FWD-biased. Something like a 50/50 or 40/60 torque distribution front/rear would help to make everyone forget the GS ever even existed, and it would expand the upper limits of an ES F Sport model.

The press release reads as follows:



It sounds to me like the system still defaults to 100% FWD until there is a loss of traction - not ideal for performance driving. HOWEVER, I think it's reasonable for Toyota to have engineered a version of this system that will fully lock the power split between front and rear... perhaps in Sport or Sport + mode. It could also be standard on F-Sport models.

Something like this is literally a must-have for the next gen RX or ES as they continue to grow in size and receive more horsepower.



This quote makes me wonder if one of the "AIM" settings could be a Sport or Sport+ mode where the torque is actively split front and rear. I assume we will know more with ES debut in a few months.
Sure when it comes to the ES, but keep in mind that pricing is generally a marketing decision. Lets hope they use similar pricing as in US, where it is priced around IS. That would be awesome.

I think current Dynamic Torque system does help a bit when wheels are rotating at different speed (corner) but where it fails completely is when one back wheel is in air, too much power is lost for other wheel to be able to move the vehicle... but now that should work fine. That integration system - AIM should certainly improve it all.

But this specific system is for UX and similar vehicles... it does not mean that ES will get it - still a lot of AWD systems missing here:

On UX system there is certainly no center diff in the pic.

let me just say that you guys are great! love these posts about specific mechanics (how these things work and are differentiated from others). I have learned so much from reading posts like yours! Love Lexus Enthusiast!
 

mediumhot

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I am not sure if you realize that Camry was not sold in EU? It sells in Russia and Ukraine only. We have Avensis to sell in Europe.
And actually Camry in Russia outsells all of European Mazda 6 sales for 2017 :).

But sure, I would much prefer hybrid Mazda 6 than Camry.
Camry was on sale in Europe from late '90s to early '00s right? But it doesn't matter anyway...
 

spwolf

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Camry was on sale in Europe from late '90s to early '00s right? But it doesn't matter anyway...
Maybe some specific market had them which is why they show up in carsalesbase database, but actual competitor to Mazda 6 and Euro Accord and middle class (Passat, Mondeo, Vectra/Insignia) were Corona, Carina and then Avensis, and thats going back to late 60's.

There are some possibly valid rumors that next-gen international Camry will come to Europe and replace Avensis due to low sales in failing sedan market, so that might actually end up being true in the future. Question then is what will Burnaston factory then produce?
 

mediumhot

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Maybe some specific market had them which is why they show up in carsalesbase database, but actual competitor to Mazda 6 and Euro Accord and middle class (Passat, Mondeo, Vectra/Insignia) were Corona, Carina and then Avensis, and thats going back to late 60's.

There are some possibly valid rumors that next-gen international Camry will come to Europe and replace Avensis due to low sales in failing sedan market, so that might actually end up being true in the future. Question then is what will Burnaston factory then produce?
I saw one ten years ago. You could tell miles away that it doesn't share nothing with Euro Toyota back then. And that US made bubbly butt didn't sit well at all on tiny euro roads :) There was also a rumor that TLX was about to be new euro Accord, that actually made sense to tell you the truth but then new Civic happened and that was about it. Avensis at this point is a joke but it does sell in good numbers compared to how outdated it is, the recent refresh does look good in some weird Toyota anemic way. Very ES like in details.

Anyway new A6 just debuted, so far only petrol option is 3.0 Turbo. Interior is carbon copy of A7 (in top trim of course). Let's see what ES can do to match it. I imagine top trim in EU will be a 300h which again makes sense but what about US? I don't see any kind of V6 turbo in it, most likely it will be Camry/Avalon carry over of NA V6. Hopefully there will be some new PU debut alongside it.
 
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Anyway new A6 just debuted, so far only petrol option is 3.0 Turbo. Interior is carbon copy of A7 (in top trim of course). Let's see what ES can do to match it. I imagine top trim in EU will be a 300h which again makes sense but what about US? I don't see any kind of V6 turbo in it, most likely it will be Camry/Avalon carry over of NA V6. Hopefully there will be some new PU debut alongside it.
Hopefully not. They need to go turbo and go AWD. There are way too many complaints of unnecessary torque steer in the Camry. Lexus cannot afford to do this.
 

spwolf

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I saw one ten years ago. You could tell miles away that it doesn't share nothing with Euro Toyota back then. And that US made bubbly butt didn't sit well at all on tiny euro roads :) There was also a rumor that TLX was about to be new euro Accord, that actually made sense to tell you the truth but then new Civic happened and that was about it. Avensis at this point is a joke but it does sell in good numbers compared to how outdated it is, the recent refresh does look good in some weird Toyota anemic way. Very ES like in details.

Anyway new A6 just debuted, so far only petrol option is 3.0 Turbo. Interior is carbon copy of A7 (in top trim of course). Let's see what ES can do to match it. I imagine top trim in EU will be a 300h which again makes sense but what about US? I don't see any kind of V6 turbo in it, most likely it will be Camry/Avalon carry over of NA V6. Hopefully there will be some new PU debut alongside it.
Germans always liked importing US cars, maybe thats how. And yeah, looked really crappy around here.

Honda is much smaller player in Europe so their decision makes sense.

As to A6, interior looks nice, I am sure even the base models will be OK, even if missing most of the stuff... and engines? Diesel will be >90% of the sales until that 2.0l petrol arrives? And then it will be 89% of the sales? :). So much for dirty diesel going away, but hey they got really really "mild" hybrids.

Problem with 2.0l petrol now is new regulation that requires pm filters for turbo petrols, making them not cost effective anymore.

ES can compete really well with 300h at lower to mid side of the market, where it needs to. That chart of new TNGA engines is missing an engine between 3.5tt and 2.5l from Camry, so I guess thats going into ES.

If Lexus can price it similar to the US, which is similar pricing to the IS, they can really do well in the market... with well being reasonable sales of 5k units in complete market including Russia.
 

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I don't think the new Dynamic Torque Vectoring will be used on the ES, at least not on the higher power F-Sport models. With 300+hp it needs full-time AWD while the DTV system launched earlier this week is still a FWD-heavy design. Or maybe that mysterious AWD management system is tuned to lock into full-time mode on the ES F-sport.
 

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I don't think the new Dynamic Torque Vectoring will be used on the ES, at least not on the higher power F-Sport models. With 300+hp it needs full-time AWD while the DTV system launched earlier this week is still a FWD-heavy design. Or maybe that mysterious AWD management system is tuned to lock into full-time mode on the ES F-sport.
This specific system is certainly for UX... maybe for larger cars they will have torsen diff in the middle?

Or maybe they wont have AWD in ES at all :)
 

mediumhot

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Germans always liked importing US cars, maybe thats how. And yeah, looked really crappy around here.

Honda is much smaller player in Europe so their decision makes sense.

As to A6, interior looks nice, I am sure even the base models will be OK, even if missing most of the stuff... and engines? Diesel will be >90% of the sales until that 2.0l petrol arrives? And then it will be 89% of the sales? :). So much for dirty diesel going away, but hey they got really really "mild" hybrids.

Problem with 2.0l petrol now is new regulation that requires pm filters for turbo petrols, making them not cost effective anymore.

ES can compete really well with 300h at lower to mid side of the market, where it needs to. That chart of new TNGA engines is missing an engine between 3.5tt and 2.5l from Camry, so I guess thats going into ES.

If Lexus can price it similar to the US, which is similar pricing to the IS, they can really do well in the market... with well being reasonable sales of 5k units in complete market including Russia.
Let's see what happens. I also think they will introduce ES in near vicinity of IS price range all over the world. There is too much of a gamble to increase ES MSRP in US and alienate the current sales. This also means cost cutting in interior is here to stay but engine could surprise us. Like I said I won't be surprised if V6 is just a carryover but a proper 2.0T or Mazda like torque happy 2.5T would be a blessing in disguise.
 

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Re: pricing, I think they will be able to keep the base price similar to what it is now by offering a base 2.0T, and then significantly expand on the upper end into GS territory. My assumption is something like this:

ES 350 Base: $42,000
  • All-new 2.0T I4 with 8AT, 275hp / 295lb-ft of torque
  • Standard: Front wheel drive
  • Standard: Nuluxe interior options: Flaxen, Black, Stratus Gray, Parchment, with 1-2 basic wood trim options
  • Standard: 9" infotainment screen, 17" wheels, projector headlights with LED DRLs, moonroof, Lexus Safety System+
  • Options: 18" wheels, Lexus Safety System+ A, 360 degree birds eye view camera, Cold weather package
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $47,000
ES 300h Base: $43,500
  • All-new I4 hybrid combined with Lithium Ion batteries with CVT, ~210hp
  • Standard: Front wheel drive
  • Standard: Nuluxe interior options: Flaxen, Black, Stratus Gray, Parchment, with 1-2 basic wood trim options
  • Standard: 9" infotainment screen, 17" wheels, projector headlights with LED DRLs, moonroof, Lexus Safety System+
  • Options: 18" wheels, Lexus Safety System+ A, 360 degree birds eye view camera, Cold weather package
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $48,500
ES 350 "Luxury"/AWD: $45,000 / $47,850 (AWD)
  • All-new 2.0T I4 with 8AT, 275hp / 295lb-ft of torque
  • Standard: Front wheel drive, Optional: Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD (+$2,850)
  • Standard: Leather interior options: Flaxen, Black, Stratus Gray, Parchment with a unique wood option for each
  • Standard: 12.3" infotainment screen, 18" wheels, Lexus Safety System+
  • Options: 18" or 19" wheel options, Lexus Safety System +A, 360 degree birds eye view camera, Panoramic Roof, Mark Levinson audio, LED headlights with LED DRLs,
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $52,500
ES 300h "Luxury"/eFour AWD: $46,500 / $49,000 (AWD)
  • All-new I4 hybrid combined with Lithium Ion batteries with CVT, ~210hp
  • Standard: Front wheel drive, Optional: E Four AWD (+$2,850)
  • Standard: Leather interior options: Flaxen, Black, Stratus Gray, Parchment with a unique wood option for each
  • Standard: 12.3" infotainment screen, 18" wheels, Lexus Safety System+
  • Options: 18" or 19" wheel options, Lexus Safety System +A, 360 degree birds eye view camera, Panoramic Roof, Mark Levinson audio, LED headlights with LED DRLs,
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $54,000
ES 400 "Luxury" AWD: $53,000
  • All-new 2.5L TT I4 or 3.0L T V6 (either will be an all-new Dynamic Force engine) with 10AT, 375hp / 395lb-ft of torque
  • Standard: All-new active AWD system with full time torque split between front and rear
  • Standard: Upgraded leather interior options: Black, Nobel Spinel Mica, Parchment, Flaxen with a unique wood option for each
  • Standard: 12.3" infotainment screen, 19" wheels, Lexus Safety System+ A, Panoramic Roof, LED headlights with LED DRLs
  • Options: 19" wheels options, Cold weather package, Mark Levinson audio, HUD, 360 degree birds eye view camera
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $61,000
ES 400 F-Sport AWD: $54,500
  • All-new 2.5L TT I4 or 3.0L T V6 (either will be an all-new Dynamic Force engine) with 10AT, 375hp / 395lb-ft of torque
  • Standard: All-new active AWD system with full time torque split between front and rear
  • Standard: Upgraded leather interior options: Black, Flaxen, Rioja Red with (Naguri?) aluminum trim
  • Standard: 20" wheels, 12.3" infotainment screen, Lexus Safety System+ A, LED headlights with LED DRLs
  • Options: Lexus Dynamic Handling Package, Panoramic Roof, Mark Levinson audio, HUD, 360 degree birds eye view camera
  • Max "Loaded" Price: $64,500

A spread like this covers the current ES and GS, while also tucking neatly under the LS's $75,000 base price while offering a similar model breakout. If Lexus does price and package the car like this, it will put a major hurting on the E Class, A6 and even 5er, IMO. The Mercedes and BMW have become astronomically expensive over the last few years and I don't think FWD/RWD is a major purchase point for 90% of buyers.
 
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spwolf

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@Gecko that wont ever happen, thats way too many options for a Lexus in the US :)

I expect base V6 in the US, like today... this is what US buyers want, not turbo 4cly. Also TMC has new 300h already, it has 208hp.
Some kind of updated 2.0t will feature in worldwide markets.

And maybe AWD option i guess.
 

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@Gecko that wont ever happen, thats way too many options for a Lexus in the US :)

I expect base V6 in the US, like today... this is what US buyers want, not turbo 4cly. Also TMC has new 300h already, it has 208hp.
Some kind of updated 2.0t will feature in worldwide markets.

And maybe AWD option i guess.
It's really a rather simplified model compared to what is offered now between ES and GS.

One base model
One "in-between" model
Two top end models, depending on whether you want luxury or sport
+ hybrids

I'm fairly confident ES will come with a 2.0T as base, as GS has.
 
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