Ian Schmidt

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Also, outside of the drivetrain BEVs are just like other cars and all those other parts will need the same maintenance they do in ICE cars. The 5,000 mile service will still involve rotating the tires and checking the brakes and stuff, just not changing the oil and refilling the radiator.
 

spwolf

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Also, outside of the drivetrain BEVs are just like other cars and all those other parts will need the same maintenance they do in ICE cars. The 5,000 mile service will still involve rotating the tires and checking the brakes and stuff, just not changing the oil and refilling the radiator.
in europe, most brands have oil chainges in 30,000km (2 years) but in reality dealers never had more work to do...
 

internalaudit

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Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.
 

F1 Silver Arrows

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Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.
100% the UX. Period.

The fact that it is a small, compact (hatchback) crossover, is a good platform to begin on electrification. I doubt they would start something as high as the ES, RX, IS or NX. The UX simply makes sense to be the first electrified Lexus model for a plethora of reasons.
 

internalaudit

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^ Cool. This is perfect if a BEV variant is released for the 2021 MY (I don't even mind 2022 if my 02 Civic is still running fine lol). I want a BEV for our next car and my wife had begun to have a love affair with CUVs, which is why we got a RAV4H.

Between the iX3 and the UX BEV, I would rather save a fortune (in total cost of ownership) and go with the latter. :)
 

spwolf

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I doubt it will be UX.

Most sense would be to do it for LF-1.

But it could also likely come in some form of NX sized SUV/CUV.
 

internalaudit

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As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?
 

spwolf

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As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?
Because of the powertrain, it has to be a lot more expensive. Plus people desire powerful EVs such as Teslas.

Combine those two and it makes sense to have something that you can sell at higher price as desirable vehicle.

Unfortunately if you look at sales trends, right now as well as in the past, most non-tesla (and much less desirable) EVs are actually sold with huge discounts in the end. Currently BMW i3 has $10k discount attached in the California, on the top of other $10k tax incentives.

It is just the way market works currently. For instance Prius Prime sells great right now at 2k per month vs main Prius's 5.7k in the US... But if we know that people get discounts and tax backs and end up paying less for Prime than for regular Prius, it tells you about current affordable EV market conditions.

Maybe some manufacturer that has worse average mpg and no other green cars to offset their truck sales will have been offer. For instance, Kona EV from Hyundai certainly looks interesting.
 

internalaudit

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I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.
 
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spwolf

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I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.
Unless they have to, manufacturers will not release EV's at prices that make them lose money or make less than on hybrids for instance.

2021 is not that far away, but maybe by 2025 a lot of affordable and yet good EV options will be there.

There are many cars that dont look nice and are not great, and yet dont have to have a half price discount like i3 has now, to sell at limited numbers worldwide. All of this is making manufacturers not rush into it.

Toyota hybrids are very reliable. I am not sure what something like Tesla will ever come close to that reliability.
 

internalaudit

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It's all about the battery cost. As long as that remains steep compare to engine/transmission/R&D, car makers will prefer to sell hybrids, PHEVs or ICEVs.

Battery cost is all that matters whether we see BEV options by 2021 or by 2025, but Toyota seems comfortable stating that by 2025, it will have a BEV variant for its Lexus line up.

i3 is sold in limited quantities so losing money on it is probably okay when BMW will release more exciting BEVs in 2020 -- X3, 4 Series.

For people like me who keep cars for as long as they are not expensive to maintain, BEV makes a lot of sense though I need at least 150 miles during winter for my wife's usage.

Saving $2-3k CAD/year on fuel cost over 10 years is about 50% of the price of a entry-level luxury BEV and also the lower probability of the battery + drive unit conking out (over engine and transmission) resulting in a major cash outflow (be it depreciation when selling or repair) is a welcome factor for me.

Just waiting for a decent priced ($65k and below CAD) and reliable (which is why I'm holding off on a TM3) AWD BEV that can travel 150 miles easily during winter time.
 
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ssun30

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Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.
LS maybe? They are guaranteed to not lose money on a LS-BEV. Plus it can share a common architecture with the LS-FCV. Just replace the FC stack, the HVB, and the H2 tanks with battery packs and job done. I just made it sound like making the LS-BEV is much easier than the LS-FCV.
 

krew

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LS maybe? They are guaranteed to not lose money on a LS-BEV. Plus it can share a common architecture with the LS-FCV. Just replace the FC stack, the HVB, and the H2 tanks with battery packs and job done. I just made it sound like making the LS-BEV is much easier than the LS-FCV.
An interesting side story -- I was told that the LS+ Concept was going to be announced with a hydrogen-powertrain right up until the last minute. This was followed by the Toyota "EVs in 2020" announcement.

My feeling is that the LS will be one of the first Lexus models released as a BEV, but I also expect the UX to be right there with it.
 

spwolf

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LS maybe? They are guaranteed to not lose money on a LS-BEV. Plus it can share a common architecture with the LS-FCV. Just replace the FC stack, the HVB, and the H2 tanks with battery packs and job done. I just made it sound like making the LS-BEV is much easier than the LS-FCV.
p.s. head of bmw something at frankfurt said that their next ev will be X3, followed by Mini and i-next
 

internalaudit

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p.s. head of bmw something at frankfurt said that their next ev will be X3, followed by Mini and i-next
I've been kinda following BMW's announcements.

now late 2019 (November production for the Mini as per BMW Canada executive)
2020 for the X3 and also for the 4 Gran Coupe (I thought initially) but it seems the latter will be replaced with the i-next which would likely not debut in 2020 but 2021

https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/technologie_workshops/Technology_Workshops_E-Mobility.pdf

I would still trust Toyota/Lexus more than any car manufacturer for reliability (RAV4H has been rock solid) but that just requires more patience when even Infinti will have a BEV by 2021.

Maybe the all new NX will be the first to be electrified to compete with the iX3. :)
 

mediumhot

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December 2020? :)

Alright let's see what they can bring to a table two years later than the Germans.
 

spwolf

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December 2020? :)

Alright let's see what they can bring to a table two years later than the Germans.
we already know from C-HR EV in China... it will be nothing like Germans, and actually, what German vehicle is shipping? I MB is at least 6 months out and e-tron is 12 months out?

Only i-pace is shipping right now.

And this will be more like 150ish hp with 200 mile range.

- @ssun30 knows more.
 
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