Lexus Future BEV Thread

[ssun30]

Reduced car ownership is a good thing. More people use public transit. Less pollution, less commute time, fewer car accidents. Qualified car owners get less traffic and a safer road.

I would rather have a future where people don't have to own a car and car enthusiasts can actually enjoy driving as a hobby.

Would you prefer to drive as much as you want vs. getting stuck in traffic, getting cut off by people who don't know blinkers exist and sitting behind that CR-V camping the overtake lane at 20km/h below speed limit? The fewer unqualified idiots on the road the better. They should be taking a subway or tram so they don't harm the safety of themselves and others. And unfortunately more than half of the people on the road are unqualified.

 

[Will1991]

Coming back to the EV theme, wanted to share what TMC did in basically 3 years, the evolution from the UX300e to the bz4X:

-> Motor evolution:

Basically, they could easily improve the UX300e range by more than 20% just by replacing the front motor...

-> Evolution of the battery pack:

And for the record, the reason because the CATL bz4X charges slower:

If this is any indication, TMC should be on par with the competition with the next gen EV's (2026).

 

[ssun30]

Maximum nominal output is 320kW from the Panasonic pack, so a RZ600e FSP is definitely on the table. But maybe they determined the range will be too poor.

If this is any indication, TMC should be on par with the competition with the next gen EV's (2026).

I don't see how you get to that conclusion, especially given Hyundai E-GMP was developed back in 2017 and was already more advanced than this.

 

[internalaudit]

I still think the Korean instrument clusters in BEVs are fugly and don't do justice to the exteriors. GV60 and Ioniq 6 come to mind. Not that either is a beauty..

I'm hoping Toyota will not follow that sole two sceeen displays or one elongated display bandwagon.. The Prius dash design looks great, almost UX patterned.

Even it Toyota trailed the Koreans, at least it may lead on the battery front with solid state batteries. Reliability wise, I think Toyota willl be on top. We will find out in a few years but evolution is going great.

GV60 has e-LSD but so far it seems handling still not on par with some German vehicles. The N stuff seem really good with all those chassis stiffeners.

 

[internalaudit]

It seems the current issues with BEVs are all around the batteries:

• battery model accuracy
• state estimation
• cell balancing

Even Toyota hasn't gotten range estimation right, per bZ4X owners, and this is probably related to the first two bullet points.

And as for cell balancing, no wonder Toyota puts out in its BEVs below industry standards driving range, slower fast charging speed and much lower total motor output. There are learnings from HEVs and PHEVs but the bigger risk likely lies with BEVs with a lot more battery cells.

Cell Balancing - Battery Design

Cell balancing is all about the dissipation or movement of energy between cells, so the SoC of all are aligned.

www.batterydesign.net

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773153722000251

Extending the range of battery electric vehicles using better models and cell balancing

The transportation sector is one of the largest consumers of fossil fuels, and, as a result, emitter of greenhouse gases. Cleaner alternatives based on wind and solar to power the sector are needed, in addition to high-capacity batteries that are also light. Right now, electrochemical batteries...

techxplore.com

For his Ph.D. research, Feye Hoekstra looked at three aspects of these two problems: increasing battery model accuracy, improving state estimation, and active cell balancing.

First, better models allow for more accurate predictions of the battery behavior during use. Moreover, it's possible to better figure out what is happening inside the batteries by comparing measurements and model predictions.

Second, this helps with a better state estimation of the current status of specific parts of the battery, which cannot be measured or should not be measured due to additional costs. This is an existing approach, but by increasing the accuracy of the prediction models, predictions can still apply for longer periods of time, and leads to a reduction in complex computations. Overall, this makes this approach more accessible and less expensive for large battery packs.

Third, active balancing, which is the transportation of energy from one cell to another, can mitigate the negative influence of weak cells in the battery pack by supporting them with energy from stronger cells, such that the BEV powered by the battery pack has a larger range. Hoekstra showed that this can extend the effective lifespan of a battery pack by about 10%.

 

[Will1991]

Maximum nominal output is 320kW from the Panasonic pack, so a RZ600e FSP is definitely on the table. But maybe they determined the range will be too poor.

I don't see how you get to that conclusion, especially given Hyundai E-GMP was developed back in 2017 and was already more advanced than this.

Maybe this wasn't just a concept but a drivable prototype?


But I was thinking about 150kW front + rear combination (300kW in total).

As for the last sentence, it's just my personal opinion due to everything I'm sharing lately

 

[Will1991]

That RZ600e does use two 150kW motors:

Lexus to exhibit at Auto Shanghai 2023 | Lexus | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

Lexus will exhibit at Auto Shanghai 2023 to be held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, China for 10 days from Tuesday April 18 to Thursday 27, 2023.

global.toyota

"

Specifications​

• Dimensions (Compared to base vehicle) Overall length 4,883 (+78) mm x Overall width 1,985 (+90) mm x Overall height 1,600 (-35) mm
• Torque N/A
• Output 150 kw for both front and rear
• Drivetrain DIRECT4

"

 

[ssun30]

BestCar's first high confidence render of the upcoming BX crossover (Fall 2024).

Apparently it was originally planned as a HEV based on the GA-B Yaris Cross. But that was cancelled in favor of a BEV based on E-TNGA. It will be the third Lexus BEV after the RZ. Whether it replaces the UX300e is unknown. My guess is this will be below UX300e as a city car while next-gen UX move upsize to be similar to Corolla Cross as a true compact CUV.

Estimated price is ¥4M in Japan or 2/3 the price of bZ4X. So possibly €40k in Europe.

 

[internalaudit]

Doesn't seem to be a Lexus exclusive but this is wonderful news. Solid state battery R&D likely going to commercialization, as planned.

Toyota to launch next-generation battery EVs in 2026

Toyota Motor plans to roll out next-generation battery electric vehicles globally, with a full lineup to be launched in 2026, the Japanese automaker said at...

www.marketwatch.com

Toyota Motor plans to roll out next-generation battery electric vehicles globally, with a full lineup to be launched in 2026, the Japanese automaker said at a recent technical briefing session.

Through technologies including the integration of next-generation batteries and sonic technology, the next-generation BEVs will achieve a cruising range of 1,000 kilometers, Toyota Motor said.

The Japanese automaker has set a base sales volume target of 1.5 million units for 2026 and 3.5 million units for 2030, the company said.

 

[internalaudit]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Toyota plans to roll out at least two new types of batteries within the next few years. One will debut in 2026 with a range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), along with improvements in weight reduction and airflow design, while cutting costs by 20% compared with the battery in the bZ4X sport utility vehicle. The other, a lithium iron phosphate battery slated for 2026 or 2027, will aim to reduce costs by 40% compared to what’s in the bZ4X while increasing range by 20%.

A bit further out, in 2027 or 2028, Toyota aims to start producing vehicles with high-nickel cathodes that will offer even greater range and cost improvements.

 

[sl0519]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Toyota plans to roll out at least two new types of batteries within the next few years. One will debut in 2026 with a range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), along with improvements in weight reduction and airflow design, while cutting costs by 20% compared with the battery in the bZ4X sport utility vehicle. The other, a lithium iron phosphate battery slated for 2026 or 2027, will aim to reduce costs by 40% compared to what’s in the bZ4X while increasing range by 20%.

A bit further out, in 2027 or 2028, Toyota aims to start producing vehicles with high-nickel cathodes that will offer even greater range and cost improvements.

Does it confirm ssb in 2026?

 

[internalaudit]

Does it confirm ssb in 2026?

"A bit further out, in 2027 or 2028, Toyota aims to start producing vehicles with high-nickel cathodes that will offer even greater range and cost improvements."

27-28 it seems, 2025 is for hybrids. I wouldn't even wait for SSB (if I needed or really wanted a new car by then) if they can go 600-700 km, between charging.

Heck, 1,000 km in 2026 is already 2.5x longer driving distance than today's Toyota/Lexus BEVs.

 

[internalaudit]

Does it confirm ssb in 2026?

Toyota Unveils New EV Tech. It Looks a Lot Like Tesla’s. Both Stocks Rise.

The Japanese company held a technical briefing Tuesday, called “Let's Change the Future of Cars.”

www.marketwatch.com

It also said solid-state batteries are entering a “practical application phase.” Solid-state, in this instance, refers to batteries with a solid electrolyte—the part of a battery that facilitates the flow of electricity. Solid-state batteries hold the promise of lower cost, better safety, and improved performance. Toyota hopes to commercialize them by 2027 or 2028.

 

[LS500-18]

It's unfortunate that Toyota was forced to follow Tesla with hyping future sh1t for years on end. I'd rather they only announce things coming out within a year or two.

As a 2-time Tesla owner I am sick of hearing about what's "coming soon". That became a big turn off for me from the brand. Dates were missed for years on end and some things never ever materialized and they still do that. Toyota doesn't do that, but they caved in and likely felt like they had no choice but to.

I realized that you are only buying what's available today, don't hold your breath on any future anything. I'll believe it when I see it. With that said, I believe Toyota 1,000 times more than I believe Tesla when it comes to future offerings.

 

[dbthompson]

It's unfortunate that Toyota was forced to follow Tesla with hyping future sh1t for years on end. I'd rather they only announce things coming out within a year or two.

As a 2-time Tesla owner I am sick of hearing about what's "coming soon". That became a big turn off for me from the brand. Dates were missed for years on end and some things never ever materialized and they still do that. Toyota doesn't do that, but they caved in and likely felt like they had no choice but to.

As for myself, I am very glad that Toyota made this announcement. Strategically, with Toyota so far behind in the BEV race, it's important to know these technologies should be coming on line in the next 3-5 years. We've heard some positive SSB rumors, but we've also heard negative rumors about the difficulties in making SSB technology efficiently manufacturable. So this gives some context to what Toyota is seeing in development cycles, across the different battery technologies (i.e. not just SSB).

In my personal context, we are typically buy-and-holders and have never leased. But with this window out there, it makes a lot of sense to grab a 3-year lease on our next vehicle, and wait for the better technologies to make a longer-term purchase. So knowing this, helps our decision.

 

[ssun30]

1000km is not the EPA cycle range (otherwise they would use miles). It's likely the very easy CATC or JC08 cycle where the bZ4X already gets a 625km rating. So that's a 60% improvement which translates to 400mi for bZ4X or 350mi for RZ in EPA cycle. That will bring them to about the same level of competitiveness with other EVs coming in that timeframe.

And the claim on high nickel chemistry in 2027 shows they are still rather conservative with adopting very high energy density chemistry. Currently NCM9.5.5 ultra high density batteries are only used by Ford in the F-150 EV and even Tesla was on the fence about using them.

 

[internalaudit]

^ Good explanation but if still around 90% capacity retention over 10 years, I know which BEVs I will be buying new and I doubt it will be a Tesla.

Also, if this was WLTP (Europe uses km too), then it would be higher than 60% improvement, correct?

 

[ssun30]

So I took the time to read their entire document and here's a summary.

1) Battery. They will have three stages of evolution and five technical variants from 2023 to 2028 with some crazy specs.
a) baseline (bZ4X): prismatic monopolar NCM622, 2022, 615km range on CLTC (all range figures will be for CLTC)/258mi EPA, 100% cost, 30min 10-80% SOC charging time.
b1) stage 1 performance variant: prismatic monopolar NCM (possibly 811), 2026, 1000 km CLTC/~420mi EPA, 80% cost, 20min 10-80%.
b2) stage 1 mainstream variant: new form factor bipolar LFP, 2026-2027, 750km CLTC/~310mi EPA, 60% cost, 30min 10-80%.
c) stage 2 performance variant: new form factor bipolar high-Ni chemistry, 2027-2028, 1100km range/~460mi EPA, 72% cost, 20min 10-80%.
d) stage 3 mainstream variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1200km range/~500mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.
e) stage 3 performance variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1500km range/~630mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.

2) Aerodynamics. They try to hype this up using buzz words like "hypersonic" and "space systems". What they really mean is Boundary Layer Control which creates laminar flow around the vehicle regardless of shape (i.e. doesn't look like soap). They will likely need active aerodynamic surfaces to achieve this. The target is <0.2 Cd.

3) Production.
a) Giga casting: integrated molding with aluminum die-casting to reduce number of sheet metal parts. Giga casting allows simpler design and slimmer parts (i.e. less weight).
b) Self-propelling assembly line: elimination of conveyor/overhead rails. The cars will have built-in wireless terminals which can be controlled by the factory to move on their own to the next process.
c) Digital twin for plant design allows rapid process study and improvement.
d) New dedicated BEV factory coming online in 2026. 1.7M/year planned capacity. eTNGA plants will be expanded to 1.5M/year by 2026. Total 3.2M/year by 2030 (+200k vs. previous target).

4) Others.
a) Downsized next-gen eAxle with no protrusion above the chassis. More cargo space and less drag due to lower roof line.
b) Faster crystal growth for SiC and 8-inch wafer for larger yield per wafer. Lower cost power electronics and up to 10% more efficient (already adopted on bZ4X/RZ).
c) Double down on the eTNGA concept: a common platform for HEV/PHEV/BEV. Necessary for rapid introduction of bigger BEV lineup. They will increase new product rate from 5 per year to 12 per year!

 

[ssun30]

New H2 strategy. The overall theme is moving away from passenger cars to commercial vehicles.

1) Next-gen FCEV: 30% improvement in power density vs. Mirai. 50% lower cost. 20% better efficiency. High durability and high performance variants. Note: they included an image of the Tundra pickup truck in the document.
2) Large commercial trucks: setting industry standard size H2 tanks (2000mm x 500mm). Easily-swappable tank modules. 25% lower cost. LH2 tanks in development.
3) Toyota will get into the H2 production business with electrolyzer/biogas conversion.
4) H2 ICEV (shows an image of J300 Land Cruiser). Will use SCR to reduce NOx emissions. H2 ICEV will need AdBlue like diesel cars. eFule/biofuel for emerging markets.

 

[ssun30]

Also one thing I just found out is TSS3.0 will collect your data for their L4 autonomous driving program.