Lexus February 2018 Sales Report

[spwolf]

I just think about the person in an RC 350 or IS 350, and what that shopper wants in the future. Probably something like 325-350hp, F sport package (as most IS/RC are equipped), strong cornering and braking. Is Dynamic Torque Vectoring AWD the right system for that much output in a FWD-biased performance offering? I guess we don't know yet...

Yeah, but everything has its consequences. They are not going to change the winning combo and make it more expensive and have less space.

But lets see what they did with UX compared to the NX (more expensive vehicle) - upscale interior, new more advanced awd system, and brand new hybrid. Thats really nice. I would expect similar things for new NX in 2 years or so.

I understand your POV - enthusiast, it is just not realistic for these vehicles... but I guess thats why LF-1 is coming for those who want LC in RWD form and are willing to pay for it.

 

[corradoMR2]

I'm not surprised with the RC's tanking. It's in desperate need of a better engine and more tech to at least remain viable.

GX continues to surprise me the last 2 years or so.

I do expect RX sales to be in the 11-12K mark starting in Q2 if the RX L will have made any impact.

 

[spwolf]

I'm not surprised with the RC's tanking. It's in desperate need of a better engine and more tech to at least remain viable.

GX continues to surprise me the last 2 years or so.

I do expect RX sales to be in the 11-12K mark starting in Q2 if the RX L will have made any impact.

Sales are best looked at % wise... RX is up 12.3% this year, despite the competition and drop in sales across the industry. These are two of the slowest months, so they wont be 12k now. Complete lineup is up 7.4% so far this year, also excellent number.

p.s. I checked out inventory and there are "no" RX-Ls in stock (10 to 1 for regular RX), just less than a month's supply of RX's... it seems RX is in tight supply still, 3rd year in.

I wonder how much of the sales RX-L will end up being, it might be much more than Lexus thought!

 

[Lexus Cohen]

Problem with this is that you are breaking the consistency, it's the same pitfall LS lineup is now running into. If they wanted to maintain the sales to reflect 2007 they should have released current or similar LS back in 2013 not 2018. They will have a hard time to build up the sales numbers with current LS cause most of the customers have left for another brand. With GS it's just going to get worse, they went from 3rd best selling premium midsize car to few units above Q70, you don't recover from that overnight. You recover from that in two model generations if you are lucky, like A6. Same fate is waiting for IS as well unfortunately, that poor thing will not go back to 3,000 units anytime soon.

Lexus is experiencing sudden death with RWD cars not because cars are not popular (tell that to Germans and Genesis) but most likely because they do not have sufficient funds or manpower to develop RWD platform products and Toyota reskins at the same time. I've said it before many times company like Lexus cannot afford to have a decision vote if they are going to develop RX-L or RC convertible, that's something Jaguar has to deal with not Toyota. If you are Toyota you build both and you build them right away. Otherwise you end up seeing your 3 year old RC plummet to under 200 units while Infiniti is selling 4 times as much and Audi is selling 9 times as much. Excuse that coupes are not popular anymore won't fly.

Thank you!

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Problem with this is that you are breaking the consistency, it's the same pitfall LS lineup is now running into. If they wanted to maintain the sales to reflect 2007 they should have released current or similar LS back in 2013 not 2018. They will have a hard time to build up the sales numbers with current LS cause most of the customers have left for another brand. With GS it's just going to get worse, they went from 3rd best selling premium midsize car to few units above Q70, you don't recover from that overnight. You recover from that in two model generations if you are lucky, like A6. Same fate is waiting for IS as well unfortunately, that poor thing will not go back to 3,000 units anytime soon.

Lexus is experiencing sudden death with RWD cars not because cars are not popular (tell that to Germans and Genesis) but most likely because they do not have sufficient funds or manpower to develop RWD platform products and Toyota reskins at the same time. I've said it before many times company like Lexus cannot afford to have a decision vote if they are going to develop RX-L or RC convertible, that's something Jaguar has to deal with not Toyota. If you are Toyota you build both and you build them right away. Otherwise you end up seeing your 3 year old RC plummet to under 200 units while Infiniti is selling 4 times as much and Audi is selling 9 times as much. Excuse that coupes are not popular anymore won't fly.

I applaud you for your response. Your reasoning has a lot of depth.

Lexus (and to a greater extent Toyota) has been resting on their laurels for the longest time ever. They have been completely lazy with their planning, and the biggest problem are their bean counters. If Toyota is single-handedly the largest automotive company in the entire world, so much so, they can easily buy out nearly half of the automotive companies exist today, then why the hell don't they spend on making their cars better?

At the high end of TMC, bean counters do not spend energy on what we want for them to focus on, and focus more towards hybrid technology, practical and safe vehicles. For the former, despite much R&D, they still do not have anything revolutionary battery technology to compete against heavy hitters like Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, and quite soon, Porsche. Their main excuse for being so lackluster whether we want to admit it or not is to focus on reliability, to which I say is a good thing, but seriously? To take so many years not to make a 3 row RX? To not update that poor dinosaur of a GX? What about that amazing GS, that helped Lexus solidify their reputation as a legitimate luxury company, which are also extremely capable in a performance testing. Does reliability testing take that long to build a competitive vehicle to bring the fight to the Europeans, the Americans (not going to even consider Genesis because they're a joke, Lincoln is more legit, but that's my opinion).

Here's what I see is what's going on, as I have been saying for the longest time ever, Lexus is its own entity now, they literally share nothing philosophically with Toyota. But in order to have Lexus to be able to survive, they need the R&D from TMC, and as we know, TMC is shying away from making enthusiast driven vehicles. No, the Supra was only a desperate attempt because of all the uproar. I bet if the demand was smaller, they wouldn't even think about building a Supra. Do you remember why they axed it? Emissions? Seriously? Yeah...... no. If you guys still are able to make crazy gas guzzling V8's then surely you were able to pursue the Supra.

Mercedes-Benz/AMG/Maybach/and their racing teams need Daimler. Audi needs Volkswagen. And BMW? Well, they're not competent anymore so I won't include them here. Same thing for Lexus. They need greater power to build the vehicles that we want but it is simply not happening.

As we all know, TMC is fearful of making vehicles that may not make the best sale at the end of the day. Problem is that they never tried it once to see what happens. They always take really small steps at a time, to which I say is a huge shame. Once they do release a model, and in some where they cheapen out, they just let the car die. Why not make it better? Examples are the Corolla, Yaris, Tacoma, 4Runner, Tundra, Sequoia and for Lexus models like the RC, CT, IS. They foolishly expect that people will buy their cars just because of reliability. It's time for them to wake up, fire themselves up so damn hard, and to splurge in order to give everyone hell. They need to realize that people won't wait a decade for them to finally build something competent. One can only dream though. Their way logic is something that has always puzzled me so much, but ultimately I still love TMC for what they do.

Point is, if they realize what they are doing wrong, I will single-handedly prove you guys wrong that they will have sales like before once again. Lexus is always that company that has the most attractive offers, and will always undercut competitors in terms of price, and go eons higher in terms of what a luxury car company is capable of. While Toyota has a lackluster lineup (exception being Camry, Sienna, Avalon, Tacoma, 4Runner, 86, Prius), you should NEVER count them out (and a greater extent to Lexus), because like the year of 1989, they will set their ground once again, and will send everyone into oblivion. That is, if they play the right cards. I am sure they will, because they will realize what potentials the cars like GS, GX, IS, RC, and LS had, and I dearly believe that they won't fall for the same mistake ever again. No longer do we want those days. We want the days where Toyota/Lexus were always that one company you can count on. Not just reliability, but competitiveness in all aspects too.

 

[mediumhot]

problem is that you are factually wrong:
1. Sedan and Coupes are overall dropping sales heavily. It is objective stats, not something imaginary.
2. Every company, including the richest one in the world (TMC), has to focus on something. Lexus chose to focus on what sells - ie SUVs. If anything, they should have done that earlier.

Since it's always easier to crap onto someone then give the praise let's switch sides a bit. Whomever convinced Toyota heads that LC model needs to be made right now is someone who understands how premium brands work. No matter if you sell watches, purses or cars principle is the same: you have to have a expensive flagship products (not one but more than one) that don't sell but they do bring in people to see them and then walkaway with less expensive product in their hands. That's how Louis Vuitton works, that's how Prada used to work before they became outlet brand and so on. Lexus now has two flagship products LC and LS which is fine now but here is the problem. These two flagship models are now in damage control rather than in brand prosperity mode because they are making up for the time when Lexus didn't have relevant emotional flagship products at all. That's been going on since 2013 when original 4LS became an obvious facelifted mutant (you cant fool people) and SC took a well overdue sunset ride. That period of half a decade has killed the Lexus car sales I guarantee you. Together with global sedan trend of decline in sales Lexus has ended up in position that BMW sells more 5 series than whole Lexus RWD sedan portfolio and almost more than whole RWD vehicle portfolio including RWD SUVs (GX had great month so it saved the situation a bit). Like I said LC and LS are salvaging the situation right now and what Lexus needs is proper RWD models (even SUVs) that cannot come soon enough so LC and LS can sell them. At least they have the foundation right this time.

Here is another good thing Lexus is doing. Another rule in consumer goods sales in general is that you have to protect your best selling product in this case RX. You protect your product by offering more products around it to complete the product lineup. That's exactly what Lexus has been doing to RX, they offered GX then NX and now RX-L and UX. They have cornered their RX from all sides as their centerpiece, they have made the whole product portfolio around it with similar products just in case someone cant' afford RX or someone needs something a bit bigger, etc. That's how you support and protect your best selling products. RX will only sell in greater numbers in the future, unless they botch some generation with bad product. That is the reason why E-class has E-class coupe and CLS at the same time, as the best selling Mercedes product they have shielded it from all the sides by investing and inventing the markets around it. Conclusion is you need more models in order to save and propel the sales of your best selling products. Lexus is trying to tie in LC and LX into LS to spark the LS sales once more but it's going to be uphill battle. If we are being real Lexus is on hold right now waiting for Mercedes to botch one of the upcoming S-classes and then take over again. No matter how good new LS is, and it's very good, that simply doesn't matter once you gave away your piece of the pie to someone else who has as good of a product as you do. It takes time to take it back.

Best example how markets go up and down is Concept Limitless. For years Infiniti had the paw on flagship RWD SUVs with FX50. They have inspired the whole another market of coupe like SUVs with it and they let if fade away. They didn't have any supporting products around it so they have ended up with no flagship of their own, they didn't recognize the trend and they didn't follow up with more SUVs to shield it (EX was everything but an SUV). Luckily for them they were able to shove QX60 in-between and save the SUV sales, but QX60 is no flagship everyone is drooling over, it's their RX like pedestrian vehicle. Point is Infiniti has withdrawn from RWD flagship SUV game while Lexus is going into it 15 years later. Infiniti thinks FWD Renault/Nissan platform sharing will save them but it will not, they will be struck in the limbo with a prospect of downhill rather than moving into tier 1 with Audi cause they don't have emotional flagship products like Lexus and Audi to give proper rep to Nissan reskins.

And one last thing, while it's stupid to comment on RX, 3 series, E class sales as those are pillars of foundation for each brand we can comment of sales of other models. Since SUV is the game as we can all see let's talk about how Lexus is not SUV sales bulletproof by any means. NX is the second best selling Lexus model and it has sold over 4,000 units. But so did the Q5, X3 was close to that number and GLC outsold it. It's far away from solid grounds for Lexus on anything but RX. Here is my interpretation why NX is not the sales king of it's class: once again Lexus was late in product planing and development. Had they had NX a generation ago market would have been a lot different by now I guarantee you. It took them 3 generations of RAV4 as the best selling small SUV for someone to take notice that they can put premium badge on it. Same story follows the UX but market UX will play in is really plagued by bad products and poor sales numbers so it stands a chance to take over. If it can beat next gen Q3.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Best example how markets go up and down is Concept Limitless. For years Infiniti had the paw on flagship RWD SUVs with FX50. They have inspired the whole another market of coupe like SUVs with it and they let if fade away. They didn't have any supporting products around it so they have ended up with no flagship of their own, they didn't recognize the trend and they didn't follow up with more SUVs to shield it (EX was everything but an SUV). Luckily for them they were able to shove QX60 in-between and save the SUV sales, but QX60 is no flagship everyone is drooling over, it's their RX like pedestrian vehicle. Point is Infiniti has withdrawn from RWD flagship SUV game while Lexus is going into it 15 years later. Infiniti thinks FWD Renault/Nissan platform sharing will save them but it will not, they will be struck in the limbo with a prospect of downhill rather than moving into tier 1 with Audi cause they don't have emotional flagship products like Lexus and Audi to give proper rep to Nissan reskins.

I like that. If that's so, then why hasn't Lexus pursued a RWD ES for this generation? What about the next generation GS? A next generation IS? How about convertibles while you're at it too? If they execute it right and don't be fearful of trying, they would actually do a good job. Where they could have diversified their portfolio and strengthened their lineup, enforcing a RWD family of cars. I have the same thoughts for RX and NX too (UX should stay FWD, as it serves a proper purpose for a urban city crossover).

I am not disagreeing with your points whatsoever, but Lexus needs to realize that this is an important step to take, not only to separate themselves from Toyota, but to even solidify their identity as a true luxury marque.

 

[spwolf]

And one last thing, while it's stupid to comment on RX, 3 series, E class sales as those are pillars of foundation for each brand we can comment of sales of other models. Since SUV is the game as we can all see let's talk about how Lexus is not SUV sales bulletproof by any means. NX is the second best selling Lexus model and it has sold over 4,000 units. But so did the Q5, X3 was close to that number and GLC outsold it. It's far away from solid grounds for Lexus on anything but RX. Here is my interpretation why NX is not the sales king of it's class: once again Lexus was late in product planing and development. Had they had NX a generation ago market would have been a lot different by now I guarantee you. It took them 3 generations of RAV4 as the best selling small SUV for someone to take notice that they can put premium badge on it. Same story follows the UX but market UX will play in is really plagued by bad products and poor sales numbers so it stands a chance to take over. If it can beat next gen Q3.

NX is big success by Lexus. It is not possible for them to 2x outsell the competition, it does not exist in vacuum... their is RX above it, and there are many of competition vehicles.

In the US, Lexus NX is #1 compact luxury crossover for 2017, it sold better than Q5 and X3 and GLC... NX and RX beat MB/BMW/Audi by 2x.

You are not being realistic when it comes to the sales, it is not magic, it does not exist in a vacuum.

Same goes for UX when it arrives. I am sure Lexus will be super happy if it sells 25k per year in the US. It does not exist on its own - it competes first against all other Lexus and Toyota vehicles of similar price, and then with competition as well.

Infiniti as a brand is much smaller than Lexus. Their and Acura's problems are much bigger, and you cant expect them to develop same amounts of models as Lexus or german 3.

As to the "being late", all of the manufacturers would love to be able to develop 10 brand new vehicles every year. But it does not work that way. Just like Lexus was "late" with NX, MB had really horrible GLK on the market when NX came out (and that gen X3 wasnt better either). And heck, today you have "all-new" GLE with most of interior designed in 2002. So even MB cant simply redesign whatever they want at any time - their best selling SUV's interior has most of the HVAC panel designed first in early 2000's, it is likely their most profitable vehicle worldwide and yet they could not afford interior redesign.

Gotta be a bit realistic about sales and how vehicle development works. In last 4 years Lexus had brand new NX, RC, LC and now UX... likely LF-1 is coming soon enough. They will have 13 models worldwide by 2020.

 

[mikeavelli]

The sedan arena has never been more competitive as well and as stated in here the IS/GS need more of a power bump and more updates. I also feel strongly the new face-lifts didn't help with sales and to some took a step back in the looks department.

I just washed our cars today and my folks came over. When I was done I realized we had 3 Lexus SUV's and 1 Lexus car. Twenty years ago it was 4 Lexus cars. Ten years ago it was two cars and two sedans. Now its 3 to 1 SUVs to cars.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

The sedan arena has never been more competitive as well and as stated in here the IS/GS need more of a power bump and more updates. I also feel strongly the new face-lifts didn't help with sales and to some took a step back in the looks department.

I just washed our cars today and my folks came over. When I was done I realized we had 3 Lexus SUV's and 1 Lexus car. Twenty years ago it was 4 Lexus cars. Ten years ago it was two cars and two sedans. Now its 3 to 1 SUVs to cars.

Hey man, you just wait. Once gas prices shoot up to the stratosphere, you will end up getting 3/4 sedans and at best 1 SUV and won't even bat an eye towards the one occurrence of the SUV craze that we once had.

And to your earlier point, I have also been stressing that for the longest time ever.

 

[ssun30]

Whomever convinced Toyota heads that LC model needs to be made right now is someone who understands how premium brands work. These two flagship models are now in damage control rather than in brand prosperity mode because they are making up for the time when Lexus didn't have relevant emotional flagship products at all.

Very true. The LC is their most successful flagship program since the original LS400. But just to add to your point, the 'showroom appeal' of the LC and 5LS is undermined by the fact that Lexus doesn't really offer a compelling sedan lineup. So people shopping for cars will walk in and don't find anything of interest. ES shoppers are likely to buy an ES even without these two flagships.

Here is my interpretation why NX is not the sales king of it's class: once again Lexus was late in product planing and development. Had they had NX a generation ago market would have been a lot different by now I guarantee you. It took them 3 generations of RAV4 as the best selling small SUV for someone to take notice that they can put premium badge on it.

As @spwolf correctly pointed out, I think it's not a matter of NX not being competitive enough but rather the RX has no real competition. The NX does not exist in a vacuum, but the RX sorts of does. Before the crossover boom there was no room for compact-size premium SUVs: it was considered an oxymoron. But before somebody shout "oh but the X3 has always been there", I should point out that the X3 was considered mid-size when it was first introduced and was never sold at compact-size prices. It only became 'compact' (despite growing in size) because the average size of vehicles has been growing. The NX came at exactly the right time; it made no sense to make it one generation earlier since the Gen 3 RAV4 was barely smaller than the 2RX so there won't be enough differentiation between the two. In fact I could argue introducing the NX that early could be counterproductive. In these years (late 2000s) the RX hadn't consolidated its iconic status yet. The RX won't be this formidable king of premium SUVs if there was a cheaper alternative as a distraction.

We shouldn't take RX's dominance for granted in every other segment. And it's unfair to assume every Lexus SUV has to be as dominant as the RX: the competition hasn't figured out that their mid-size premium SUVs are $10k too expensive for the intended audience and such flaw in pricing structure is true for every major market. In fact BMW could introduce a X5 30i for $6k less but still fails to compete against the RX since for that price one can get a nicely optioned 450h. That 10k gap comes from a transverse-FWD platform which is inherently cheaper than a longitudinal RWD/AWD platform. For that reason any suggestion that Lexus make its mainstream SUV lineup RWD-based should be ignored.

I like that. If that's so, then why hasn't Lexus pursued a RWD ES for this generation? What about the next generation GS? A next generation IS? How about convertibles while you're at it too? If they execute it right and don't be fearful of trying, they would actually do a good job. Where they could have diversified their portfolio and strengthened their lineup, enforcing a RWD family of cars. I have the same thoughts for RX and NX too (UX should stay FWD, as it serves a proper purpose for a urban city crossover).

I am not disagreeing with your points whatsoever, but Lexus needs to realize that this is an important step to take, not only to separate themselves from Toyota, but to even solidify their identity as a true luxury marque.

As I've pointed above, any suggestion to make NX/RX/ES RWD should be disregarded because it violates the No.1 reason why these were so competitive in the first place: being transverse-FWD based and thus inherently cheaper. If there's any doubt, ask why even BMW made the X2 transverse-FWD.

Now could Lexus have made the new ES RWD? Technically nothing stops them from doing it because we know there is a mid-sized TNGA/GA-L sedan, the who-knows-how-many-generations Crown. Which recipe would any reasonable designer/engineer choose: the tried-and-true Avalon-based FWD ES? or the never-so-successful Crown spin-off RWD GS? In fact one can argue the ES is the main project with the Avalon being the byproduct. But the GS has always been an afterthought of a unique vehicle with a very small market (which it holds a monopoly of). See the problem? The GS is based on something that does not need to compete against anyone.

You have to take corporate politics into account: if you were a Lexus team leader (based in USA) would you want full authority over your most important sedan project, or listen to someone in Aichi and hope that guy knows how to make a car that competes out of Japan?

Again, the premium quality and identity has nothing to do with drivetrain layout, at least not for mass market vehicles. Longitudinal RWD is a must for flagships because they need big engines (which won't even be true in a few years), and for sports cars since it's so much easier.

Hey man, you just wait. Once gas prices shoot up to the stratosphere, you will end up getting 3/4 sedans and at best 1 SUV and won't even bat an eye towards the one occurrence of the SUV craze that we once had.

Not gonna happen. This is THE sedan-apocalypse because crossover is a better body style in any way imaginable. The MPG penalty SUV pay today is way less than 10 years before and is only getting smaller with the overall trend of electrification. An electric SUV sells no matter how expensive gas costs. SUVs are here to stay.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Hey man, you just wait. Once gas prices shoot up to the stratosphere, you will end up getting 3/4 sedans and at best 1 SUV and won't even bat an eye towards the one occurrence of the SUV craze that we once had.

Gas prices *can't* shoot up now. While nobody was paying attention over the last 5 years the US became a big exporter of oil. This means OPEC can't control oil prices anymore. And for anyone who experienced the gas shocks of the 1970s (or the resulting automotive travesties like the Mustang II) that's the best of all possible revenges. The shift to EVs will then further reduce gas prices due to lower demand.

 

[amoschen7]

Problem with this is that you are breaking the consistency, it's the same pitfall LS lineup is now running into. If they wanted to maintain the sales to reflect 2007 they should have released current or similar LS back in 2013 not 2018. They will have a hard time to build up the sales numbers with current LS cause most of the customers have left for another brand. With GS it's just going to get worse, they went from 3rd best selling premium midsize car to few units above Q70, you don't recover from that overnight. You recover from that in two model generations if you are lucky, like A6. Same fate is waiting for IS as well unfortunately, that poor thing will not go back to 3,000 units anytime soon.

Lexus is experiencing sudden death with RWD cars not because cars are not popular (tell that to Germans and Genesis) but most likely because they do not have sufficient funds or manpower to develop RWD platform products and Toyota reskins at the same time. I've said it before many times company like Lexus cannot afford to have a decision vote if they are going to develop RX-L or RC convertible, that's something Jaguar has to deal with not Toyota. If you are Toyota you build both and you build them right away. Otherwise you end up seeing your 3 year old RC plummet to under 200 units while Infiniti is selling 4 times as much and Audi is selling 9 times as much. Excuse that coupes are not popular anymore won't fly.

Point granted. But who will buy the exact same model multiple times over years? There may be some, but upgrading over time is more logical. It’s true that they overdued quite a lot models that really cost them loyal customers, but Lexus is not a legacy brand esp in developing countries. They need models that really attract young and first time lexury vehicle shoppers. That’s what they’ve been doing and I feel the strategy works well.

 

[spwolf]

@ssun30 continuing as you explained it so far, It makes me wonder if Lexus came to same conclusion as we did - there is no reason for them to fight at the same level as german 3's fleet vehicles - volume will never be there worldwide. So lets position ES worldwide to fight vs german fleet vehicles, and then you can do something unique with GS that differentiates it vs 5/E/A6 as well as Crown.

At its best, IS and GS sold 150k vehicles per year where 3/5/A4/A6/C/E sold more than a million. This is because in their home countries (Germany as well as EU), they are fleet vehicles. They are Camry of EU. You get tax exemptions if you buy a vehicle for your company. Pricing wise 3/C/A4 compete with Passat and rest of the mid-size sedans, they killed that class because of it.

So to compete with it, Lexus should send its "fleet" vehicle - ES... based on same platform as Camry, that overall sells over 1m vehicles worldwide, it can be price competitive as well and make their RWD sedans more unique, more interesting, more to get showroom traffic and less about total sales.

They will have their UX/NX/RX/GX/ES to handle sales.

And sales wise, Lexus is fastest growing luxury brand in the US in 2018 (unit wise), thats with new upcoming new UX, LS just getting to the dealers, and new ES coming soon.

It is going to be a good year for Lexus.

 

[spwolf]

The sedan arena has never been more competitive as well and as stated in here the IS/GS need more of a power bump and more updates. I also feel strongly the new face-lifts didn't help with sales and to some took a step back in the looks department.

I just washed our cars today and my folks came over. When I was done I realized we had 3 Lexus SUV's and 1 Lexus car. Twenty years ago it was 4 Lexus cars. Ten years ago it was two cars and two sedans. Now its 3 to 1 SUVs to cars.

It is reality of the current market. This is why LF-1 is awesome move, they just need to bring it out sooner than later.

For me, I have IS220d, which replaced my GS350 AWD. I had an option to get RX at the time I was buying IS and I much preferred IS.

I have no problems with buying Toyota, and I have had many. I had 3 2006-2007 Rav4's which were immensely popular here in Europe at that time.
But new Rav4 is for me a fleet vehicle that's sold by foot... I dont need that. On the other hand - C-HR that I recently tried had excellent handling, excellent interior, reasonable price ($40k fully equipped here due to the taxes) but infotaiment was really old looking, it was noisy at 100 mph (tire, wind) and too slow for my highway speeds but fine for the city.

So UX with stronger hybrid (56hp stronger, which is 40%), better interior, better NVH and better infotainment seems like a nice possibility.

Or I just might get used GS450h, but the problem is that there arent many to pick around since their sales at almost nothing in EU.

 

[mikeavelli]

Hey man, you just wait. Once gas prices shoot up to the stratosphere, you will end up getting 3/4 sedans and at best 1 SUV and won't even bat an eye towards the one occurrence of the SUV craze that we once had.

And to your earlier point, I have also been stressing that for the longest time ever.

Sedan MPG isn't exactly amazing compared to a comparable SUV. Case in point my wife jumping from a GS F-Sport to RX F-Sport...same engine, same MPG for the most part....

That said if we did it again, we likely would go with a RX 450h but they do also offer a GS 450h..

Gas prices *can't* shoot up now. While nobody was paying attention over the last 5 years the US became a big exporter of oil. This means OPEC can't control oil prices anymore. And for anyone who experienced the gas shocks of the 1970s (or the resulting automotive travesties like the Mustang II) that's the best of all possible revenges. The shift to EVs will then further reduce gas prices due to lower demand.

Nice post.

 

[mikeavelli]

@ssun30 continuing as you explained it so far, It makes me wonder if Lexus came to same conclusion as we did - there is no reason for them to fight at the same level as german 3's fleet vehicles - volume will never be there worldwide. So lets position ES worldwide to fight vs german fleet vehicles, and then you can do something unique with GS that differentiates it vs 5/E/A6 as well as Crown.

At its best, IS and GS sold 150k vehicles per year where 3/5/A4/A6/C/E sold more than a million. This is because in their home countries (Germany as well as EU), they are fleet vehicles. They are Camry of EU. You get tax exemptions if you buy a vehicle for your company. Pricing wise 3/C/A4 compete with Passat and rest of the mid-size sedans, they killed that class because of it.

So to compete with it, Lexus should send its "fleet" vehicle - ES... based on same platform as Camry, that overall sells over 1m vehicles worldwide, it can be price competitive as well and make their RWD sedans more unique, more interesting, more to get showroom traffic and less about total sales.

They will have their UX/NX/RX/GX/ES to handle sales.

And sales wise, Lexus is fastest growing luxury brand in the US in 2018 (unit wise), thats with new upcoming new UX, LS just getting to the dealers, and new ES coming soon.

It is going to be a good year for Lexus.

Yes the UX is going to be good, not sure of sales goals but surely it will top the 15k a year the CT was doing during its best years. Lexus thought they were going to sell 35k NX here and they are selling 55k.

The big year will be 2019 when the new ES arrives, you have a new UX and LS..

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

As I've pointed above, any suggestion to make NX/RX/ES RWD should be disregarded because it violates the No.1 reason why these were so competitive in the first place: being transverse-FWD based and thus inherently cheaper. If there's any doubt, ask why even BMW made the X2 transverse-FWD.

Not gonna happen. This is THE sedan-apocalypse because crossover is a better body style in any way imaginable. The MPG penalty SUV pay today is way less than 10 years before and is only getting smaller with the overall trend of electrification. An electric SUV sells no matter how expensive gas costs. SUVs are here to stay.

@ssun30 Why would you think that comments like that should be disregarded? Your reasoning for transverse-FWD/AWD cars being cheaper may be correct (and it is I am not denying that), but it is only about time until everyone realizes that FWD does not go hand in hand with luxury, and if you are, make it FWD based AWD. Every single damn day, people want more performance, and more luxurious/mechanical features stuffed into cars. There is a limit where these FWD cars can handle such technology, and Lexus is reluctant to go FWD based AWD on their sedans. Let's face it, if you're not a regular Lexus customer, having more prestige features like RWD, a true luxury interior, and NUMBERS will attract them. Numbers sells cars, horsepower sells cars, and we all know that the current platform won't be able to support more power. If they continue the way I think they're going to continue, the power-train will be a total mess for the ES. Too much torque steer, surprising amount of noise that vibrates in to the cabin, and will overall be another product that's in the grey area (however I won't deny that it will be more premium than before).

A chassis of its own (or like you said a mid-size TNGA GA-L platform) would do so much wonders for the ES. Many potential buyers know about the ES/GS situation, same way that they are also aware about the RX selling in droves. As it sits right now, the ES is not that attractive of an option anymore to many buyers, and proof of this is in the real world.

For every 3 ES models I see, there is 1 GS.
For every ES, I see like 8 RX models.
For every 2 ES models I see, there are 2 IS models.
These are personal observations I make on a daily basis, and while my stats are very inaccurate, it is a sign that they can revolutionize the GS and IS. They still sell as they are. Because they're damn good cars. IMHO, the ES does not fit the portfolio, especially where Lexus wants to go in the future. I am aware that the ES sells in huge numbers too, but my question to all of you is that wouldn't it be better as a car if it had the GS platform too?

Despite Lexus trying to change their identity, many people know that it is a rebadged and a much more luxurious Avalon. The reason why GS is not much of a success is because they left that poor thing to fend for itself, meanwhile the ES keeps getting continuous updates, and dealers are pushing people who WANT a GS, into an ES (they made the ES 15k cheaper, evidence if they put more money for a better product, it would be much better). Also, no matter how many updates they put into the ES, everyone knows that it is not in the same league as other Lexus models.

If Lexus is making such a push to make their vehicles so much more revolutionary, the ES won't be a part of it. Something as slushy as the ES won't be revolutionary. Something like the GS, GX, IS, RX, LC, NX, LS, LX, LF-1, fit Lexus current playbook into what they're shooting for as a car company. The ES was always that one child that never made sense in the lineup. Unless the GS elevates itself and the ES goes RWD. Everyone raves about the Lexus RWD cars because they had so much balance, so much tautness in the chassis. I know FWD platform is cheaper, but customers can tell which car is truly worth the money. I know I am being such a pusher for RWD. But that's where the money is at. Evidence is Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, even companies like *coughs* Genesis are pushing for a RWD portfolio.

I strongly believe if Lexus wants to have a certain identity, all their cars need to answer to their core competencies of the company.

------

Now about fuel economy. Where I see it, gas prices shot sky-high around 4-5 years ago. The changes from big V8 SUV's, and massive trucks to things like luxury midsize sedans and Priuses (maybe an occasional minivan here and there). When they calmed, people were reluctant because they thought it was going to shoot high again. Now there's the SUV craze as we all know it, but I see a lot of compact/midsize cars now because prices are about to skyrocket again.

@mikeavelli/ @Ian Schmidt, I can see why you guys say that, but there were still a lot of hybrid SUV's back then too(obviously not as many as today, but still quite a lot) and people still went to smaller cars. Gas prices are now getting more extreme than ever before, and I don't think that hybrid SUV's will save them again this time.

 

[LDeleuran]

We seem to forget that February 2017 was absolutely disasterous for Lexus: https://lexusenthusiast.com/2017/03/01/february-2017-sales-report/

Comparing to 2016, rather than 2017, gives a bit more insight. Here are some key takeaways:

Model: 2016, 2017, 2018:
RC: 920, 495, 186 (What happened!? Surely LC can't take all RC customers)
ES: 3,826, 2,709, 2,685 (Appears to have found a steady low point)
GS: 1,167, 536, 534 (Same as for ES)
LS: 374, 294, 548 (A strong showing of the new model)
LC: 0, 0, 128 (This does not account for all the RC losses)
Total cars: 10,012, 6,176, 5,606 (Brutal)

NX: 3,709, 3,514, 4,263 (Back on track)
RX: 7,192, 6,676, 7,238 (Also back on track)
Total trucks: 13,078, 12,162, 13,659 (Trucks are restored even when looking back on 2016 levels)

 

[spwolf]

Yes the UX is going to be good, not sure of sales goals but surely it will top the 15k a year the CT was doing during its best years. Lexus thought they were going to sell 35k NX here and they are selling 55k.

The big year will be 2019 when the new ES arrives, you have a new UX and LS..

I thought new ES is coming in 4 months tops?

I would guess 25k max to UX, simply because there is now NX too and for US market, it wont be significantly cheaper than NX, while in EU, due to the taxes, there will be much larger spread between the prices.

In any case, 25k new UX sales is 8% increase for Lexus USA, its like free money .

For Europe and Japan it means much more than that... it will likely add 20-30% to the Lexus sales, which means more viable Lexus dealers that can open new locations and invest more into existing ones and all of that will grow existing model sales as well. It is the same reason they kept "old" CT going there too.