Lexus Discontinues GS Sedan in Europe

[Joaquin Ruhi]

raise:

Hard to call it a mistake given how the ES has sold over the years, but why Lexus chose the Camry over the Cressida I'll never know. It even looked like a Lexus:

View attachment 2859

Indeed, that particular Cressida had launched in Japan as the 6th-gen Mark II in Japan just a year before the original Toyota Celsior/Lexus LS. Had it been pressed into duty as the original ES, it would've been a better, more competent and contemporary entry-level Lexus than the actual first ES - a warmed-over 2nd-gen Camry towards the end of its life cycle. And, had ES followed this RWD Mark II/Mark X lineage instead of its FWD Camry/Avalon pairing, perhaps GS would've never existed and we would've been spared the pain of RWD GS likely dying in favor of FWD ES.

 

[maiaramdan]

@Joaquin Ruhi

Celsior = LS
Windom = ES

Nice idea though, but here we are!!!

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

@Joaquin Ruhi

Celsior = LS
Windom = ES

Nice idea though, but here we are!!!

I knew Celsior=LS. That was a typo I just fixed. Thanks for helping me catch it.

Windom=ES only applies to 2nd thru 4th-gen ES. The original ES equivalency was Camry Prominent and Vista.

 

[maiaramdan]

Toyota missed a lot of chances unfortunately

 

[ssun30]

I am a HUGE fan of the Mark II family, although my preferred Bubble Era car is the Crown. It was among the many things that truly shocked me how far ahead of the world the nation was when I first visited it in the 90s.

For those unfamiliar with the model, or those who only saw the inferior NA-spec Cressida, the Mark II is the epitome of Bubble Era Japanese auto engineering. Sure there's the GT-R, NSX, RX-7, Supra, all the fancy super sports, but nothing represents the Era better than the Mark II. The model is the entry-level premium car situated below the Crown, but is also within the "compact-size" (length<4700mm, width<1700mm, engine<2000cc) regulations so buyers can enjoy lower taxes. During a time of unlimited wealth, literally everyone buys a premium car. And guess what? The X80 Mark II, the most iconic iteration, became the best selling automobile in Japan in 1988 and 1989, which coincides with the peak of the Bubble Era. It was the sweetheart of Japanese auto industry for over a decade.

The 1st-gen ES250 was based on the V20 narrow-body Camry/Vista. This is not the all-conquering overengineered masterpiece that is the wide-body XV10 Camry/Spectre, but it's a rather humble compact size family sedan which didn't sell that well in Japan: it's what the Corolla is today. The sole reason for the existence of the ES250 was to fill the showroom so buyers don't walk into a Lexus dealer confused by only one available model. And indeed it was outsold by the LS400; it needs to be mediocre because the LS is the star. We are quite familiar with the rest of the history: with the legendary XV10 generation the ES slowly built up momentum and gained the reputation of a more affordable LS. It has the same emphasis on soft, quiet, and smooth ride which is more consistent with the brand image at the time, in contrast to the relentless speed demon that is the GS/Aristo. But over time it became the most anti-enthusiast premium sedan in the segment with a very old buyer demographics.

Had the Mark II been chosen as the basis for the ES, then it won't just be space filler: it would be the entry-level premium sedan that people want. Just look at this:
>>Engine option of either an efficient 2-liter or a plentiful 3-liter, if you want some boost there is a twin-turbocharged 1G-GTE with over 200hp, and 200hp in 1989 is A LOT. Regardless of the choice, everything will be a silky smooth Inline 6.
>>Fully-independent double wishbone rear suspension for uncompromised ride quality and driving dynamics. Optional adjustable semi-active suspension, the world won't even understand what it means. Fear of those rear wheels going loose is calmed by available limited-slip differential, traction control, and electronic stability control.
>>All the best interior equipment you will find on a Mercedes S-Class. Oh wait, I don't think the S-Class or the 7-series had a CD Player, because all CD players were made in Japan at that time. Don't forget to show off that LED digital dash (I think Americans had similar things, just less fancy) to the neighbors. Their reaction: LED? What is a LED?

And do I even need to mention the X90 and X100 generations? With those turbocharged JZs, the ES would run circles around the big dumb V8-powered M5. A 2JZ-GTE in an ES is just unfathomable in our version of the universe.

Of course when the bubbles burst, their whole auto industry crash landed and brought down the Mark II triplets. The ES could just switch to the Crown platform like the GS originally was, and the entry-level role is taken over by the IS/Altezza, another car that shares the longitudinal RWD DNA. The consistency is not lost.

My point is, had the 1ES been based on the X80 Mark II, the reputation of the brand would be polar opposite of what it has now (or to be fair, two years ago). Lexus would be remembered as the daring brand that builds nothing but the best. The ES would be a car of uncompromised engineering, a perfect balance of comfort and sportiness, and an enthusiasts' favorite (instead of the most hated). Would it enjoy the same financial success as the Camry-based ES does in our timeline? Maybe not. But the brand as a whole would be healthier because there isn't this very disruptive model that mess up the pricing structure. And more importantly, it would be considered a serious competitor to MB and BMW.

But alas, the Japanese had a nasty habit of keeping the best JDM, so the rest of the world (with the exception of Aussies and Kiwis, lucky bastards) never had the chance to drive the engineering marvels they built in the Bubble Era. And now we are at the situation today.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

I am a HUGE fan of the Mark II family, although my preferred Bubble Era car is the Crown. It was among the many things that truly shocked me how far ahead of the world the nation was when I first visited it in the 90s.

For those unfamiliar with the model, or those who only saw the inferior NA-spec Cressida, the Mark II is the epitome of Bubble Era Japanese auto engineering. Sure there's the GT-R, NSX, RX-7, Supra, all the fancy super sports, but nothing represents the Era better than the Mark II. The model is the entry-level premium car situated below the Crown, but is also within the "compact-size" (length<4700mm, width<1700mm, engine<2000cc) regulations so buyers can enjoy lower taxes. During a time of unlimited wealth, literally everyone buys a premium car. And guess what? The X80 Mark II, the most iconic iteration, became the best selling automobile in Japan in 1988 and 1989, which coincides with the peak of the Bubble Era. It was the sweetheart of Japanese auto industry for over a decade.

The 1st-gen ES250 was based on the V20 narrow-body Camry/Vista. This is not the all-conquering overengineered masterpiece that is the wide-body XV10 Camry/Spectre, but it's a rather humble compact size family sedan which didn't sell that well in Japan: it's what the Corolla is today. The sole reason for the existence of the ES250 was to fill the showroom so buyers don't walk into a Lexus dealer confused by only one available model. And indeed it was outsold by the LS400; it needs to be mediocre because the LS is the star. We are quite familiar with the rest of the history: with the legendary XV10 generation the ES slowly built up momentum and gained the reputation of a more affordable LS. It has the same emphasis on soft, quiet, and smooth ride which is more consistent with the brand image at the time, in contrast to the relentless speed demon that is the GS/Aristo. But over time it became the most anti-enthusiast premium sedan in the segment with a very old buyer demographics.

Had the Mark II been chosen as the basis for the ES, then it won't just be space filler: it would be the entry-level premium sedan that people want. Just look at this:
>>Engine option of either an efficient 2-liter or a plentiful 3-liter, if you want some boost there is a twin-turbocharged 1G-GTE with over 200hp, and 200hp in 1989 is A LOT. Regardless of the choice, everything will be a silky smooth Inline 6.
>>Fully-independent double wishbone rear suspension for uncompromised ride quality and driving dynamics. Optional adjustable semi-active suspension, the world won't even understand what it means. Fear of those rear wheels going loose is calmed by available limited-slip differential, traction control, and electronic stability control.
>>All the best interior equipment you will find on a Mercedes S-Class. Oh wait, I don't think the S-Class or the 7-series had a CD Player, because all CD players were made in Japan at that time. Don't forget to show off that LED digital dash (I think Americans had similar things, just less fancy) to the neighbors. Their reaction: LED? What is a LED?

And do I even need to go on when the X90 and X100 generations came in? With those turbocharged JZs, the ES would run circles around the big dumb V8-powered M5. A 2JZ-GTE in an ES is just unfathomable in our version of the universe.

Of course when the bubbles burst, their whole auto industry crash landed and brought down the Mark II triplets. The ES could just switch to the Crown platform like the GS originally was, and the entry-level role is taken over by the IS/Altezza, another car that shares the longitudinal RWD DNA. The consistency is not lost.

My point is, had the 1ES been based on the X80 Mark II, the reputation of the brand would be polar opposite of what it has now (or to be fair, two years ago). Lexus would be remembered as the daring brand that built nothing but the best. The ES would be a car of uncompromised engineering, a perfect balance of comfort and sportiness, and an enthusiasts' favorite (instead of the most hated). Would it enjoy the same financial success as the Camry-based ES does in our timeline? Maybe not. But the brand as a whole would be healthier because there isn't this very disruptive model that mess up the pricing structure. And more importantly, it would be considered a serious competitor to MB and BMW.

But alas, the Japanese had a nasty habit of keeping the best JDM, so the rest of the world (with the exception of Aussies and Kiwis, lucky bastards) never had the chance to drive the engineering marvels they built in the Bubble Era. And now we are at the situation today.

That's the point I was trying to make, but you said it so much better and more eloquently than I could've. :thumbsup:

 

[bogglo]

Looking at some of TMC car here in Japan gave me a different view of TMC design Language. Look at the 2012 Toyota crown Majesta and the Genesis g90, and the S-class and 06-09 crown Majesta S-180. The new design Language of Lexus and Toyota might be their only way to stand out. The Mark X is a really good looking car everytime I see one reminds me of the 3Gs.

 

[LDeleuran]

I have recently visited a dealership in Germany because I'm interested in a GSF. They are currently pushing hard to get the existing GS (450h and 300h) stock sold with 20% + free maintenance + extra incentives which I must say is extremely tempting. I am basically able to buy a new GS450h cheaper than what I paid for my CT200h!

Still. I would really like to check out the GSF after having heard so much positive about it. That, unfortunately, is not possible. The GSF has apparently ceased production and dealers have been told that there will be no next gen N/A V8. The availability of the RCF here is even worse! They are truly unicorns. And this is supposed to be one of the best markets for high performance enthusiast cars!

With this development it seems like my Lexus options for a nice weekend cruiser are a $120k base LC500 or a $50k fully loaded GS450h (loosely converted German prices).

 

[spwolf]

That is very cheap for gs450h.

 

[maiaramdan]

So I had unicorns in Russia, Ukraine & Egypt
Honestly I was going to sell the Egyptian GSF to buy the LS F sport but everyday passes I believe more that I have future collectables in my hands

 

[peterharvey]

IMO, Lexus has profited very well from using simple cheap FWD-based underpinnings for their top selling RX/NX/UX's.
Likewise, using Camry FWD-based platform as underpinnings for ES has brought Lexus considerable profits from high sales with very low cost Camry FWD-based underpinnings.
That's why Toyota Motor Corp is the wealthiest car manufacturer in the world with net equity of some US$200 billion, when Daimler AG only has US$70 billion - Spwolf loves it when I say nice things about TMC.

In the United States, because Lexus has two luxury cars of similar exterior size in the ES and GS, the ES obviously steals sales from the GS just like an E Class/5 Series/A6 steal sales from the CLS/6 Series/A7 4 door coupes - thus, I don't really believe that there is a sales problem with GS.

The only thing I acknowledge is that the current 2012-19 4GS sales has suffered sales in the US probably for a number of reasons, with peak sales on its debut year down to 22k/year, where 3GS sold 33k/year, and 2GS also debut with over 30k/year.
For those who think that 4GS sales fell due to SUV's, this is not true, because from 2002-09 to 2009-16 period, the E Class's peak sales increased from 50k/yr to 69k/year!
Likewise, from 2003-10 to 2010-17, the 5 Series increased its peak sales from 56k/year to 60k/year.
Thus, in the same period of time, only 4GS's peak fell backwards, and fell backwards significantly too - from 3GS's 33k/year to 4GS's 22k/year.


As for the Toyota Mark II.
The Mark II actually started life out as the Toyota Corona Mark II; an upmarket version of the Toyota Corona.
Later, the Toyota Mark II became its own with the numerous sales channels in Japan selling the Toyota Cresta luxury variant and Toyota Chaser sports variant.
When the Toyota Mark II reached its tenth generation, it was called the Toyota Mark X [Ten].

The Nissan Maxima also started life out as the Nissan Bluebird-Maxima, before it became the Nissan Maxima itself.

The Mark II was supposed to be sub-4.7 m long and sub-1.70 m wide to be under the Japanese Passenger Size Vehicle tax limit.
By 1989, the Japanese government abolished the 4.7 x 1.7 m Passenger Vehicle tax limit to make their vehicles more internationally competitive.
Some time in the 1990's, the Toyota Mark II shared the Toyota N Platform with the Toyota Crown/Aristo/GS, and later sharing with the compact Altezza/IS too.

As such, the Toyota Mark Series falls "half-way" in size between the compact Altezza/IS and the midsize Crown/Aristo/GS; the Toyota Mark Series is neither genuinely compact like C Class, but it is not genuinely midsize like E Class either.

We could sell an intermediate size luxury RWD car in the US, but it would be in no man's land, but more importantly, US consumers would probably complain that a Toyota Mark X-based ES with an intermediate size is too cramped inside - because back in the 1980's, this is how many consumers complained about the Toyota Cressida [Cressida was the export name for the domestic Mark II], and its sporty competitor the Nissan Skyline.

In Japan, the Toyota Mark X sales are becoming diminutive, probably because most people either adopt more genuine compact IS, or more genuine midsize like Crown/GS.

That's my 2 cents...

 

[spwolf]

IMO, Lexus has profited very well from using simple cheap FWD-based underpinnings for their top selling RX/NX/UX's.
Likewise, using Camry FWD-based platform as underpinnings for ES has brought Lexus considerable profits from high sales with very low cost Camry FWD-based underpinnings.

Because Lexus has two luxury cars of similar exterior size in the ES and GS, the ES obviously steals sales from the GS just like an E Class/5 Series/A6 steal sales from the CLS/6 Series/A7 4 door coupes - thus, I don't really believe that there is a sales problem with GS.
/QUOTE]

ES was limited to few markets worldwide and it did not help GS, thus GS performance had nothing to do with ES.

 

[maiaramdan]

I also still believe there's a case for Mark-X & GS even within the current strategy

 

[Gecko]

Spwolf and I will always disagree on the ES/GS relationship, and perhaps the difference is market context. USA has historically been Lexus' largest market, and here, ES has slowly taken share from GS as Lexus has invested in it, grown it, expanded the range, while deprioritizing GS over two generations.

I have spent years working in Lexus dealerships as well as a short stint at Lexus corporate and seen this narrative play out more times than I can even count. This fact is simply not up for dispute. Whether it was a long term strategic decision or something that happened subconsciously, ES is the reason GS is dead.

At this point, it is all just a profit play and I understand that. You can say that GS was cancelled because of low sales, but the low sales were the fault of the similarly sized, similarly equipped, similarly powered, but much cheaper, ES.

 

[maiaramdan]

Agree with you and I told all of you this before

The ES won't kill GS only but Mark-X, Avalon & maybe even Crown

 

[Ian Schmidt]

What's interesting to me is that the RX's success has been used as a reason to spend money developing the NX and UX, but there's not been an equivalent investment in the IS, at least not yet. Maybe we'll see that when TNGA finally hits it?

 

[Gecko]

What's interesting to me is that the RX's success has been used as a reason to spend money developing the NX and UX, but there's not been an equivalent investment in the IS, at least not yet. Maybe we'll see that when TNGA finally hits it?

I think the next gen IS is going to be a "make it or break it" car for Lexus for a few different reasons. IS and GS have historically shared platforms and powertrains, and now that GS is going away, they will have to make a more significant, focused investment in the IS to make it competitive.

Also, with ES being a juggernaut at the same price point, I can see Lexus doing something similar and just culling the IS in favor of a two sedan strategy: ES and LS. Now that they have ES F Sport and AWD coming in 2020, that further eats into IS territory. IS cancellation would depend a lot on how the market is over the next 5 years, so, it's impossible to speculate now. If it continues like it is, I can very easily see them thinking that UX, NX and ES have the $35-45k market covered without much need for IS.

Further, we don't really know much about the scalability of GA-L yet, but the without the GS, there is a very big gap between LS and LC, and IS. It also makes me a bit worried that IS could end up very heavy like both of those products.

It's a bit of a catch-22 IMO: invest significantly more in a premium RWD small sedan and "play to win," or pull the plug on a product that has falling sales in a segment that is rapidly shrinking.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

Further, we don't really know much about the scalability of GA-L yet, but the without the GS, there is a very big gap between LS and LC, and IS. It also makes me a bit worried that IS could end up very heavy like both of those products.

I think we actually do have a good idea about the scalability of GA-L and its closely-related TNGA-N counterpart from the latest Toyota Crown. I've posted about this a couple of times on these forums, but I'll repeat it here. GA-L is currently available on two different wheelbase lengths: 2870 mm (113") for Lexus LC and 3125 mm (123") for Lexus LS. The TNGA-N Crown rides on a 2920 mm (115") wheelbase. That 50mm (2") difference in wheelbase between LC and Crown is coincidentally (or not?) the spread between the current IS and GS wheelbase.

If the next IS sits on a 2920 mm (115") wheelbase like the Crown, it becomes something of a de facto GS replacement. (Bear in mind that GS and Crown have, for the most part, shared wheelbases and even platforms). If, on the other hand 4IS uses the LC's shorter 2870 mm (113") wheelbase, then it stays truer to its shorter, more agile and tossable roots at the expense of rear legroom.

Further muddying the waters and throwing comparisons for a loop, the latest GA-K Lexus ES (and its Toyota Avalon counterpart) sit on a 2870 mm (113") wheelbase that matches the shortest iteration of the RWD GA-L. The GA-K FWD-centric platform, naturally, allows for a much roomier interior given its transverse engine placement. GA-L, by comparison, places its longitudinal engine back in a pseudo-front-mid-engine position. Great for balance, handling and agility, not so much for optimum interior room.

It'll be very interesting to see how Lexus manages the IS vs ES conundrum going forward.

 

[maiaramdan]

The pricing will matter the most as how Lexus will give us the smaller car IS that costs more than the bigger brother ES

 

[Steve]

Still. I would really like to check out the GSF after having heard so much positive about it. That, unfortunately, is not possible. The GSF has apparently ceased production and dealers have been told that there will be no next gen N/A V8. The availability of the RCF here is even worse! They are truly unicorns. And this is supposed to be one of the best markets for high performance enthusiast cars!

Hm, the GS-F is still available in Germany. If you are dead serious about buying it, well, drop me a short note. Pretty sure I can help connecting you with the right people.