Discussion: Lexus, Plug-in Hybrids, EVs, and Fuel Cells

[ssun30]

I have read that new changes to laws introduced last month, gave more eco points for plugins and hybrids, in this scheme where 10% is required in 2019 but possible to offset with points... do you know more info?

I have now read about Quin and it is supposed to be 5.9s to 100kmh? But yes, you can configure it so you get more power output from battery and it will be very fast. New LS500h has upped battery output by 50%, now to 60hp... so every time you press gas, 60hp extra is available right away, like in super turbo. It is limited by battery size, so plugin with bigger battery can have much bigger output and yeah, it could feel like crazy.

Toyota is usually conservative with battery output, some of it is due to nimh and some due to them being conservative - Prius has much smaller output, if it had 60hp batter out, it would feel like 1.5l turbo or faster.

HEVs won't get eco points directly since they are considered to be the same as gas-only vehicles. They do get points for being under the 5L/100km line. PHEVs and BEVs get points based on their EV range. Toyota can afford to not build a single BEV and meet its eco point obligations with HEVs and PHEVs only. That is, if they can convert all their gas-only cars to HEVs. This is also the reason why they are introducing a full hybrid line-up in 2018 to get ready for the 2019 regulation. China is probably the first market where Toyota goes all hybrid. The Corolla/Levin proved the feasibility and now they have the confidence to make the move.

The new policy is meant to benefit local manufacturers more because they produce lots of NEVs/LSVs that could easily get the required points. NEVs and LSVs are quite common in small towns/countryside because there are no roads on which to travel quickly and a tiny battery/motor combo will do the job.

The biggest losers are international players who are ill-prepared and have a huge production volume, i.e. VW and GM. They need A LOT of eco points but cannot get nearly as many BEVs ready in time. They will almost definitely bite the bullet and get penalised. Toyota and Honda are relatively small in China, but they also have the best hybrid technologies so the penalty (if any) they take will be much less damaging. This presents a valuable opportunity for them.

Policies in China always favor PHEVs with oversized batteries that are also extremely powerful. An interesting side effect is the rise of so-called 'electric muscle cars', namely family sedans/SUVs with large amounts of power and insane amounts of torque. A crazier version of the Qin is the Tang, a mid-size SUV with over 500hp and over 600 lb-ft of torque at less than $40k. Chinese drivers have access to very fast vehicles at a very low cost, not that different from the pony car era in the U.S. Even the ridiculous wheelspin feel similar: these cars are heavily traction limited, so some aftermarket performance tyres could make them match sports cars easily. The police love them as well because there's more income from speed camera fines (LOL).

Now I can feel the Americans drooling over these straight line monsters. Yeah you can always go for the 2.3s P100D but at over $100k.

 

[spwolf]

HEVs won't get eco points directly since they are considered to be the same as gas-only vehicles. They do get points for being under the 5L/100km line. PHEVs and BEVs get points based on their EV range. Toyota can afford to not build a single BEV and meet its eco point obligations with HEVs and PHEVs only. That is, if they can convert all their gas-only cars to HEVs. This is also the reason why they are introducing a full hybrid line-up in 2018 to get ready for the 2019 regulation. China is probably the first market where Toyota goes all hybrid. The Corolla/Levin proved the feasibility and now they have the confidence to make the move.

Ah, indeed then... so it is actually same as Europe - where it is based on consumption and they can do it with hybrids and phevs that will balance big SUVs.
We have plenty of Toyota hybrids in Western Europe - Yaris, Auris, C-HR, Prius, Prius+, Rav4... all of them are best sellers, and most of Lexus sales in Western Europe are hybrids (like 99%).

So right now they have 1.5l, 1.8l, 2.5l and 3.5l based hybrids in many applications worldwide... I would guess that with 2.0l they would cover most of their vehicles, with some variations... I forgot what they wrote in last TNGA update, 6 new hybrid powertrains and 17 variations? Or more? Too lazy to check now, but each of the cars will have two hybrid options available.

So they can do whatever they want, question is just feasibility for the market - what makes sense for EU and China today, does not make sense for Eastern Europe, India, South America and Africa.

If China does not require EV, then it is only California that requires ZEV credits now... maybe Europe in 5 years will need some but I guess that it means they wont have big EV lineup for shows anytime soon.

 

[krew]

So much great information in this thread! Thanks @spwolf & @ssun30!

 

[krew]

Lexus Committed to Hydrogen Technology for Future Vehicles

Existing battery technology just isn't practical in the long term.

View the original article post

 

[ssun30]

I don't understand their bashing of chemical batteries and the claim that rapid charge-discharge cycles degrading battery life being the reason to not do BEV.

Remember their FCEVs still require a chemical traction battery that needs to be rapidly charged by the fuel cell stack and rapidly discharged to power the motors. They still have a medium that decouples power demand and generation*. If a battery can handle these kinds of workload, I don't see how that battery cannot be practical for a BEV.

And with a man such high up in the Toyota management making claims that seems to contradict what the companies planned earlier. It's doubtful that Toyota actually has the plan sorted out yet.

*But why?

 

[spwolf]

I don't understand their bashing of chemical batteries and the claim that rapid charge-discharge cycles degrading battery life being the reason to not do BEV.

Remember their FCEVs still require a chemical traction battery that needs to be rapidly charged by the fuel cell stack and rapidly discharged to power the motors. They still have a medium that decouples power demand and generation*. If a battery can handle these kinds of workload, I don't see how that battery cannot be practical for a BEV.

There is massive difference in amount of charge that goes with supercharger and what happens when engine charges the battery.

I mean it is not as if anyone cares if Tesla has any issues, they just brush it off as propaganda... but with Toyota people might care.

I think main problem is profitability and customer demand. This is why Toyoda is spearheading the project since engineers dont see the sense in it, and cant get passionate about it.

 

[Dreski]

I support them hundred percent. Seen enough real world articles about the Mirai, plenty of work to do but this is the future and not BEVs.

 

[Carmaker1]

The Tokyo showcase 90% likely to be what is called LS-FC, a folllow-up to the LF-FC?

 

[Levi]

There is massive difference in amount of charge that goes with supercharger and what happens when engine charges the battery.

I mean it is not as if anyone cares if Tesla has any issues, they just brush it off as propaganda... but with Toyota people might care.

I think main problem is profitability and customer demand. This is why Toyoda is spearheading the project since engineers dont see the sense in it, and cant get passionate about it.

HFCVs are way more complex and less space efficient than BEVs (unless there is a way to have a solid state hydrogen fuel "tank" and even then, they are not optimal).

 

[bogglo]

The Tokyo showcase 90% likely to be what is called LS-FC, a folllow-up to the LF-FC?

I read about the Toyota's "Project Portal" and that's kind of interesting that system(Hybrid and hydrogen) in the LS FC would suit the nature of the LS well quiet and powerful.

 

[OlFius]

The Panamera's top end model is now the plug in hybrid Turbo......

A plug in which almost nobody uses?!
For those nearly 40 kilometers on electricity, every night the cable in the plug, I do not think so.

 

[bogglo]

 

[Black Dynamite]

1. Thanks for reminding me that the LS could've looked this bad-ass. Appreciate that....
2. Williamson's facts about battery life seem to miss the bigger picture. Lexus not producing pure EVs because an EV may lose charges at the end of its life is wrong-headed, IMO. Batteries can be replaced. People aren't buying Teslas at a record pace for charges at 150,000 miles, 10 years from now. How many original owners hold an EV for over 100k miles? The answer is not many.

The point is build the battery well enough so it can be fast-charged for 100k miles. You have a 100k warranty for a reason. Make it so!
I'm not big on excuses and I'm not used to hearing lame excuses from Lexus execs on why they can't compete.
I'd much rather have a pure EV I can charge with solar than a hydrogen vehicle.
You're not going to win that argument for hydrogen.

I don't want to hear excuses. Make it so!

BD

 

[ssun30]

1. Thanks for reminding me that the LS could've looked this bad-ass. Appreciate that....
2. Williamson's facts about battery life seem to miss the bigger picture. Lexus not producing pure EVs because an EV may lose charges at the end of its life is wrong-headed, IMO. Batteries can be replaced. People aren't buying Teslas at a record pace for charges at 150,000 miles, 10 years from now. How many original owners hold an EV for over 100k miles? The answer is not many.

The point is build the battery well enough so it can be fast-charged for 100k miles. You have a 100k warranty for a reason. Make it so!
I'm not big on excuses and I'm not used to hearing lame excuses from Lexus execs on why they can't compete.
I'd much rather have a pure EV I can charge with solar than a hydrogen vehicle.
You're not going to win that argument for hydrogen.

I don't want to hear excuses. Make it so!

BD

Actually his facts does reveal the bigger picture. He was saying fast charging will drastically reduce battery endurance on top of the already low battery endurance of today's BEVs. Toyota is obsessed with making cars that last more than a decade and/or 200k miles, so anything less is considered low endurance by them.

People don't really feel fast-charging as a problem today because it is a rare usage scenario. EV drivers rarely need fast-charging, because they are often the more affluent people who own a house, or work at "eco-aware" companies so they have easy access to at-home or at-work charging. Your "I'm just going to charge my BEV with roof solar panels" scenario is a first world previlege that vast majority of the world will not have access to. As EVs become mainstream, the usage pattern will be exactly like today's gas cars: people go charge at fast-charge stations when the batteries go low. Having a charging pole at every house and every parking spot is a huge waste of resources at a social level, especially in the U.S. There's a reason we refuel our cars at gas stations instead of having gas pipelines running into every house and office building.

The argument for Hydrogen Economy has always been that the infrastructure is easier to achieve on a national (instead of regional) level compared to an Electric Economy, except nobody could prove it yet. These two concepts are just equally impractical with technologies that will be accessible in the next decade, and both sides hope there will be a breakthrough at some point.

But given TMC's gigantic scale and its ability to absorb risks, there is absolutely no point to be in denial of either technology. That's what's depressing about this guy's statement. It totally has the capability to do both, but the high management doesn't seem to have a firm plan. Being big is a guarantee to survive these days. Nokia went from the top of the world to oblivion in five years, and that's the price they paid for believing smartphones are just fancy gadgets for the rich and the nerds.

TL;DR: It's the "since others can't do it right we are not going to do it" attitude that's annoying.

 

[krew]

But given TMC's gigantic scale and its ability to absorb risks, there is absolutely no point to be in denial of either technology. That's what's depressing about this guy's statement. It totally has the capability to do both, but the high management doesn't seem to have a firm plan. Being big is a guarantee to survive these days. Nokia went from the top of the world to oblivion in five years, and that's the price they paid for believing smartphones are just fancy gadgets for the rich and the nerds.

I don't get that at all. It just looks like EV will be focused more on Toyota rather than Lexus. This is all part of the push that was announced late last year:

https://lexusenthusiast.com/2016/11/08/extended-range-electric-vehicles-coming-to-lexus/

 

[spwolf]

TL;DR: It's the "since others can't do it right we are not going to do it" attitude that's annoying.

it is more like we wont talk PR about things just to talk PR. Lets not forget that Toyota has number #1 plugin the world right now and that they just introduced 2 EV concepts in Tokyo.

And that they are in talks with suppliers on EV model production in the US, they are investing the most into battery research out of all manufacturers.

But saying that they are going to electrify all of their models in next 5 years would be just fake news.

I mean how ironic is that EV denier Toyota sells #1 plugin vehicle in the world? Who is wrong or right is easy to see at that example.

 

[Black Dynamite]

Actually his facts does reveal the bigger picture. He was saying fast charging will drastically reduce battery endurance on top of the already low battery endurance of today's BEVs. Toyota is obsessed with making cars that last more than a decade and/or 200k miles, so anything less is considered low endurance by them.

People don't really feel fast-charging as a problem today because it is a rare usage scenario. EV drivers rarely need fast-charging, because they are often the more affluent people who own a house, or work at "eco-aware" companies so they have easy access to at-home or at-work charging. Your "I'm just going to charge my BEV with roof solar panels" scenario is a first world previlege that vast majority of the world will not have access to. As EVs become mainstream, the usage pattern will be exactly like today's gas cars: people go charge at fast-charge stations when the batteries go low. Having a charging pole at every house and every parking spot is a huge waste of resources at a social level, especially in the U.S. There's a reason we refuel our cars at gas stations instead of having gas pipelines running into every house and office building.

The argument for Hydrogen Economy has always been that the infrastructure is easier to achieve on a national (instead of regional) level compared to an Electric Economy, except nobody could prove it yet. These two concepts are just equally impractical with technologies that will be accessible in the next decade, and both sides hope there will be a breakthrough at some point.

But given TMC's gigantic scale and its ability to absorb risks, there is absolutely no point to be in denial of either technology. That's what's depressing about this guy's statement. It totally has the capability to do both, but the high management doesn't seem to have a firm plan. Being big is a guarantee to survive these days. Nokia went from the top of the world to oblivion in five years, and that's the price they paid for believing smartphones are just fancy gadgets for the rich and the nerds.

TL;DR: It's the "since others can't do it right we are not going to do it" attitude that's annoying.

The facts don't back up these assertions. Where is the public outcry over Tesla batteries failing at 100k miles, or less? Where are all the problems Tesla is having with battery life, dating back over a decade to the Tesla Roadster? Not buying this argument. He can make it, but I don't have to buy it.

Williamson is getting marching orders to knock down talk of EVs in favor of hydrogen from Toyota execs. They have made their decision. It's the wrong decision, at least in the short to mid-term, but maybe 10 years from not Hydrogen will be the better long-term play? Maybe Toyota will put hydrogen stations around the country like Tesla has done with Superchargers? At least Toyota.Lexus now has a working successful blueprint to use.....
BD

 

[ssun30]

I don't get that at all. It just looks like EV will be focused more on Toyota rather than Lexus. This is all part of the push that was announced late last year:

https://lexusenthusiast.com/2016/11/08/extended-range-electric-vehicles-coming-to-lexus/

You see, we are hearing bits and pieces about Toyota/Lexus wanting to do EV here and not wanting to do EV there. It will be way more assuring if we hear Akio-san speak out loud at TMS: we are going to do BEV and FCEV and spare no efforts in both, because we are so big we can afford.

So far the EV concepts they are planning to show at TMS are disappointing because they resemble nothing that will go to production, unlike Honda's concepts. Some of the mobility concepts may saw limited application for the 2020 Olympics but has nothing to do with the bigger picture.

The facts don't back up these assertions. Not buying this argument. He can make it, but I don't have to buy it.

Exactly, you shouldn't believe in either side because neither can prove the other side is indeed inferior. It's just that the BEV camp is way more dedicated (and has an easier starting point) and thus saw more concrete results.

I mean how ironic is that EV denier Toyota sells #1 plugin vehicle in the world? Who is wrong or right is easy to see at that example.

But in terms of accumulated kWh/EV range driven the Prime is insignificant in the entire EV landscape. The fact that it sells the best is an indicator of...nothing.

 

[spwolf]

But in terms of accumulated kWh/EV range driven the Prime is insignificant in the entire EV landscape. The fact that it sells the best is an indicator of...nothing.

Sales are only thing that's important, rest is just pr, blog, Facebook fluff that means nothing in real world.

Fact that Prius Prime is best selling plugin out of all leafs, bolts, Tesla's and who knows what else, is proof that customers don't care about these things yet.

What will GM get by losing billions on Bolt? And they have to lose billions if they sell 25k per year world wide. And then Prius Prime doubles its sales as just an add-on to existing car.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

The facts don't back up these assertions. Where is the public outcry over Tesla batteries failing at 100k miles, or less? Where are all the problems Tesla is having with battery life, dating back over a decade to the Tesla Roadster?

Given Tesla's practice of requiring owners to sign an NDA to receive service and the electric car media's open adoration of them I'm not sure we *would* hear about any problems. We do know they've been constantly updating the software to limit charging in various ways in order to preserve battery life, but the overall effect is inconclusive.