Lexus Future BEV Thread

[ssun30]

Lots of promises and a lot of work to do in just 3 years. In fact, they need to do 6 years of work (3 years of catch up and 3 years of fast progress). Last time they laid out an ambitious target like this we were underwhelmed by the results (they should have 6 BEVs and over 200k/year by early next year in their original eTNGA plan). But when the eTNGA program started we also did not know BEV adoption would increase at such rapid rate (it's already over 1/6 in 2022 but the expectation was <10%) so I could understand they weren't that committed to the plan. But it seems that under Koji Sato the main area of R&D is very clearly BEVs so we should have realistic expectations on new ICEV/HEV from TMC in the near future. I.e. these will very likely be "major refresh" instead of full redesigns.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Nothing on synthetic fuels eh? Interesting.

 

[internalaudit]

I guess most late adopters really want driving ranges with little to no range anxiety. Also bodes well for battery longevity if people stick to operating between 30-70% SoC because of the improved range/density.

Good to know Toyota will be offering LFP too though those are more problematic in cold temperatures if not properly conditioned/maintained prior to charging, it seems.

 

[ssun30]

I guess most late adopters really want driving ranges with little to no range anxiety. Also bodes well for battery longevity if people stick to operating between 30-70% SoC because of the improved range/density.

Good to know Toyota will be offering LFP too though those are more problematic in cold temperatures if not properly conditioned/maintained prior to charging, it seems.

Early adopters of Toyota BEVs are basically screwed if Toyota could execute this incredibly ambitious plan. By 2026 the bZ4X/RZ would have next to no resale value unless they do buy-back guarantee like they do in China. Not a problem for most NA buyers who will be leasing the vehicle though.

As time goes on, people will eventually find a solution to the LFP low temperature problem. As an example, for a well-balanced pack, you can just temporarily heat up one module to check its SOC instead of having to constantly condition the whole pack. They would then use some sort of AI to predict the SOC of other modules and balance accordingly.

 

[internalaudit]

Early adopters of Toyota BEVs are basically screwed if Toyota could execute this incredibly ambitious plan. By 2026 the bZ4X/RZ would have next to no resale value unless they do buy-back guarantee like they do in China. Not a problem for most NA buyers who will be leasing the vehicle though.

As time goes on, people will eventually find a solution to the LFP low temperature problem. As an example, for a well-balanced pack, you can just temporarily heat up one module to check its SOC instead of having to constantly condition the whole pack. They would then use some sort of AI to predict the SOC of other modules and balance accordingly.

They can drive them into the ground. That's the reason many buy Toyotas. Lots of other makes that are more fun to drive and have more features.

I mean if I am holding out for better BEVs, I don't think Toyota has lost me (or many others like me) as a customer. I am just waiting on the sidelines because I know current BEVs are compromised and the pricing and wait times are absurd.

2025/26 is when most regulations take effect so really that's the goalpost Toyota should be aiming for.

There is little brand loyalty nowadays and people who flock to Tesla can easily move back to Toyota.

I might even try used German BEVs down the road lol.

 

[internalaudit]

Probably worth the wait? What is three to four years anyway to car people on a budget haha.

Toyota says solid-state battery breakthrough can halve cost and size

Toyota says solid-state battery breakthrough can halve cost and size

Japanese carmaker plans to commercialise technology in electric vehicles by 2027

www.ft.com

Toyota initially said it wanted to start selling hybrid but not electric cars with solid-state batteries before 2025. But on Tuesday, Kaita said the company discovered ways to address the durability problems from about three years ago and now had enough confidence to mass-produce solid-state batteries in EVs by 2027 or 2028.

 

[Levi]

Battery breakthrough is as elusive as nuclear fusion.

 

[internalaudit]

Battery breakthrough is as elusive as nuclear fusion.

It's coming, coming sooner than Tesla's 1 million mile battery

I read the press release on the '24 UX300e and surprised to see Toyota selling BEV Care extended warranty to extend coverage to 10 years, one million kilometers.

I'd be willing to forego purchasing that battery extended warranty, knowing it's a Toyota/Lexus but wonderful for commercial vehicle operators or those in the ride sharing business.

I think getting at least 10 years of ownership on a Toyota/Lexus BEV will be well worth the fuel savings lol.

 

[LateToLexus]

Battery "breakthroughs" that will possibly halve the cost absolutely does not mean a reduction in vehicle prices. Just means bigger profit margins. Just saying.

 

[CRSKTN]

Battery breakthrough is as elusive as nuclear fusion.

No. Dont confuse innovation risk and actually getting OEMs to push new chemistry onto the supply chain.

 

[internalaudit]

Battery "breakthroughs" that will possibly halve the cost absolutely does not mean a reduction in vehicle prices. Just means bigger profit margins. Just saying.

True. I only care about battery longevity and lower weight given that the BEV price remains constant.

Price will eventually come down on the lower end of the spectrum, thanks to upcoming regulations and ZEV sales quotas. Shorter driving ranges and fewer features, like akways.

 

[ssun30]

Electric buses are beginning to retire in large numbers in China and local governments are struggling to replace them because they have only been in service for 3-4 years, way shorter than the life cycle of diesel buses. Some cities have lost 75% of their fleet resulting in service outages.

By 2028-2030 every country will have a massive BEV recycling problem and a LOT of EV owners will feel the pain of depreciation of those early short lifespan BEVs.

 

[mediumhot]

Electric buses are beginning to retire in large numbers in China and local governments are struggling to replace them because they have only been in service for 3-4 years, way shorter than the life cycle of diesel buses. Some cities have lost 75% of their fleet resulting in service outages.

By 2028-2030 every country will have a massive BEV recycling problem and a LOT of EV owners will feel the pain of depreciation of those early short lifespan BEVs.

I've seen this insane trend with BEV busses few years ago and I called it right on the money. This thing makes zero sense. At this moment. They are better off with compressed natural gas or even hydrogen generator + diesel combo

 

[internalaudit]

Electric buses are beginning to retire in large numbers in China and local governments are struggling to replace them because they have only been in service for 3-4 years, way shorter than the life cycle of diesel buses. Some cities have lost 75% of their fleet resulting in service outages.

By 2028-2030 every country will have a massive BEV recycling problem and a LOT of EV owners will feel the pain of depreciation of those early short lifespan BEVs.

Battery issues for the most part?

Could be the quality of these electric buses too. Not all are made equal.

Also, I thought with Li-ion, full charge cycles could top 1,500? And for LFP, 5,000?

Are these buses travelling at least 500 km a day in city traffic?

 

[internalaudit]

Yay or Nay? I wouldn't even mind brake-based torque vectoring on a Lexus if solid state batteries will easily last 14-15 years.

Toyota plots solid-state battery timeline for future EVs

The automaker also emphasized the importance of producing thinner battery packs in overall EV range and efficiency.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[CRSKTN]

Lexus to unveil electric sedan with next-generation technology at Tokyo motor show

Toyota’s luxury division Lexus is planning to unveil a sleek new model with its next-generation technology at next month’s Tokyo motor show.

www.drive.com.au

"The top-secret model is expected to bring Toyota and its luxury division Lexus – which, combined with other divisions, is the world’s largest automaker by volume – closer to delivering a genuine rival to electric-car leader Tesla."

"Given the 5LS is currently basically a tech platform for Lexus, i can't see 6LS being anything but a skunkworks effort to set a high watermark for the next, electric age of Lexus the same way the first one did in its day."

Fingers crossed. Exciting times.

 

[ssun30]

Aisin's new roadmap for BEVs during last week's shareholder meeting presentations:

These numbers don't matter much. The 2nd-gen commercial BEV eAxle will use a rigid axle.

3rd-gen eAxle coming in 2027. Now it will be a 4-in-1 (though they call it 3-in-1): motor, transmission, PCU, cooling system.

Nice to see them using cell-to-pack instead of cell-to-chassis.

Front and rear subframes will be diecast aluminum. Integrated heat management and CTP battery packs coming in 2025. Gigacasting coming in 2027.

More powerful regen brakes. Now front and rear axles will have different regen braking strength to reduce jerkiness.

Don't know what to say about the fully automatic doors. But the double sliding doors are very cool.

They also claimed they will divert R&D on future AT and HEV transmissions to fully focus on BEV powertrains. So what we have today will be the last generation of Aisin ICEV/HEV transmissions.

 

[CRSKTN]

Century SUV style doors but doubled up, amazing...




Interesting proportions for the vehicle they used.

The slides above make me more curious about my prior estimations.

 

[dylanfoos]

 

[internalaudit]

Looks like 90% of us will be waiting for the 2nd gen Lexus BEVs.

I don't admire Tesla but it's done a few things like announced giga casting that has sent reverberating waves across the industry. Hoping that means eventually lower manufacturing costs for BEVs, and resulting slightly lower pricing.