The only scenario where this product makes sense is if the starting MSRP is below $38k and with lease price well below the ES350/300h. It would be a moderate success with <$37k starting MSRP.
As a reference, the ChDM ES260 is priced at 92.5% of ES300h at same trim level. Extrapolating that to USDM and you get $38500 starting price. Keep in mind the ES260 price is intentionally inflated to drive more sales to the hybrid (to reduce CAFE). In a more realistic scenario it should be ~90% the price of 300h. Also keep in mind Lexus is in no place to charge any premium for the ES over competitors in USDM unlike in ChDM.
BMW and Mercedes left a vacuum after they pulled the 320i and C250 out of USDM and pushed up the starting price. Audi is likely to do the same with the A4 40TFSI. This is the only niche where the ES250 AWD can survive. They would be delusional to charge over $40k for this, especially since overall buying power will shrink considerably during the recession (much worse than 2008). I actually think BBA will bring back the entry level models to cover lost volume.
In the premium car market, a slight drop in buying power makes a HUGE difference in sales volume because most buyers are already at the limit of their financial capacity ('spending more than they could afford'). Most premium car buyers are not wealthy people. Last time a 4% economic decline led to 35% decline in sales for Lexus. I don't think premium brands will be able to keep charging the same price next year.