Gecko

Connoisseur
Staff member
Administrator
Messages
3,069
Reaction score
6,616
everyone can knock it all they want but the joke will be on everyone when this sells like hot cakes. It’s going to sell and it’s going to sell big. People who can’t afford the 6 will get this count it.
I think you are expecting this ES 250 AWD to be an entry level ES model coming in below the V6, but Lexus historically charges a $2,000 premium+ for AWD. Just because it has a 4cyl, I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to be a volume/value model. It’ll most likely be slightly more expensive than the standard V6.
 

Berto3818

Fan
Messages
223
Reaction score
84
@Gecko the reason I’m saying this this is because in my region the ES does very well. Dealers in my area can’t keep enough of them around and besides that people have been waiting for this for a while now. I’m in Maryland.
 

Levi

Expert
Messages
1,007
Reaction score
1,262
I can only hope this is some sort of stop gap car for something better in the future.
Stopgap this, stopgap that, sounds more like clifffall already.

everyone can knock it all they want but the joke will be on everyone when this sells like hot cakes. It’s going to sell and it’s going to sell big. People who can’t afford the 6 will get this count it. Also don’t understand why there is so much hate towards the brand I’ve noticed it a lot lately. Yeah they aren’t doing what we want but we have to trust they know what they are doing.
Looks like even LE turned into CL....so it is more an issue with what Lexus delivers to the community rather than the community itself.
 

Gecko

Connoisseur
Staff member
Administrator
Messages
3,069
Reaction score
6,616
@Gecko the reason I’m saying this this is because in my region the ES does very well. Dealers in my area can’t keep enough of them around and besides that people have been waiting for this for a while now. I’m in Maryland.
Sure, but you worded your post like you expect it to sell better because you think it’s going to be cheaper than the V6. It won’t.
 
Messages
3
Reaction score
4
This is such a disappointment, frankly I could care less about the ES but the continued lack of passion and innovation boggles my mind! Everything in their line up lacks luster and isn't able to keep up with the germans or really anything at this point. Lexus vehicles have become just rebadged Toyotas with more sound insolation. The cost cutting methods have gotten out of control, I don't understand how other car manufactures are able to come out with new power plants left and right and Lexus cant seem to give us a new one in decades. That v6 is a dinosaur its under powered and not efficient enough yet alone that anemic i4 out of the camry. I personally cant justify spending luxury car prices on what is a Toyota plus at the end of the day. It's just going to lead to more frustration and disappointment but I really hope that they are able to come out with something great soon!
 

Joaquin Ruhi

Expert
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
1,532
Reaction score
2,428
I think you are expecting this ES 250 AWD to be an entry level ES model coming in below the V6, but Lexus historically charges a $2,000 premium+ for AWD. Just because it has a 4cyl, I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to be a volume/value model. It’ll most likely be slightly more expensive than the standard V6.
Sure, but you worded your post like you expect it to sell better because you think it’s going to be cheaper than the V6. It won’t.
At best, they might borrow from the Lincoln playbook for the late MKZ, which offered a no-cost choice between a 4-cylinder hybrid and V6 non-hybrid powertrain. In other words, they could charge the same thing for an ES 250 AWD as for an ES 350 FWD. But I definitely don't see the ES 250 AWD being cheaper than the ES 350. More likely is, as @Gecko noted, a slight premium (less than the usual $2000) for the ES 250 AWD.
 

ssun30

Expert
Messages
1,756
Reaction score
3,995
The only scenario where this product makes sense is if the starting MSRP is below $38k and with lease price well below the ES350/300h. It would be a moderate success with <$37k starting MSRP.

As a reference, the ChDM ES260 is priced at 92.5% of ES300h at same trim level. Extrapolating that to USDM and you get $38500 starting price. Keep in mind the ES260 price is intentionally inflated to drive more sales to the hybrid (to reduce CAFE). In a more realistic scenario it should be ~90% the price of 300h. Also keep in mind Lexus is in no place to charge any premium for the ES over competitors in USDM unlike in ChDM.

BMW and Mercedes left a vacuum after they pulled the 320i and C250 out of USDM and pushed up the starting price. Audi is likely to do the same with the A4 40TFSI. This is the only niche where the ES250 AWD can survive. They would be delusional to charge over $40k for this, especially since overall buying power will shrink considerably during the recession (much worse than 2008). I actually think BBA will bring back the entry level models to cover lost volume.

In the premium car market, a slight drop in buying power makes a HUGE difference in sales volume because most buyers are already at the limit of their financial capacity ('spending more than they could afford'). Most premium car buyers are not wealthy people. Last time a 4% economic decline led to 35% decline in sales for Lexus. I don't think premium brands will be able to keep charging the same price next year.
 
Last edited:

mikeavelli

Connoisseur
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
4,505
Reaction score
9,048
The only scenario where this product makes sense is if the starting MSRP is below $37k and with lease price well below the ES350.

BMW and Mercedes left a vacuum after they pulled the 320i and C250 out of USDM and pushed up the starting price. Audi is likely to do the same with the A4 40TFSI. This is the only niche where the ES250 AWD can survive. They would be delusional to charge over $40k for this, especially since overall buying power will shrink considerably during the recession. I actually think BBA will bring back the entry level models to cover lost sales.
Gecko is correct that awd is usually a 2k or so premium. I totally expect it to be 40k and the f sport around 45k. Acura just released tl pricing and it would be about 40/41k for shawd base and options get it up to 50k.

This is clearly targeted at the must have a Lexus owner and I assume the majority of allocation will be in the central and north east areas. Most AWD sedans are ordered and sold there.
 

internalaudit

Admirer
Messages
678
Reaction score
787
Could the Camry AWD be slightly faster and nimbler owing to less weight?

It's sounds like FWD Lexus will only be more fun with that PHEV/e-axle combo. :(
 

spwolf

Expert
Messages
2,778
Reaction score
2,884
everyone can knock it all they want but the joke will be on everyone when this sells like hot cakes. It’s going to sell and it’s going to sell big. People who can’t afford the 6 will get this count it. Also don’t understand why there is so much hate towards the brand I’ve noticed it a lot lately. Yeah they aren’t doing what we want but we have to trust they know what they are doing.
AWD models usually have 10-15% take in USA... this will improve their sales a bit in some winter markets.
 

Gecko

Connoisseur
Staff member
Administrator
Messages
3,069
Reaction score
6,616
GS AWD actually had a pretty good take rate in the northeast and Midwest. I think this ES 250 is a stopgap to try to appeal to some of those folks as they retire the GS - albeit a poor one.

If you need AWD because of your climate and you really want a midsize Lexus sedan, at least there will be something available once the GS is gone.
 
Messages
1,773
Reaction score
2,081
Comments on social media may not be a true indication of the real-world demand for a vehicle. Social media is an echo chamber -- a certain perspective (usually the louder, "enthusiast" community who want loud noise and high horsepower) usually drowns out the other (quieter) perspective. So you only hear from one perspective without hearing from the other. Experience tells me that the enthusiast community is a minority rather than a majority in the market.
Perhaps so. I still think people on social media tend to be younger and most importantly, don't have money. Enthusiasts aren't interested in the ES, F Sport or not. The target market for the ES still tends to be in a demographic group that aren't wasting their time trying to get into the DMs of someone famous.
 

Joaquin Ruhi

Expert
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
1,532
Reaction score
2,428
At best, they might borrow from the Lincoln playbook for the late MKZ, which offered a no-cost choice between a 4-cylinder hybrid and V6 non-hybrid powertrain. In other words, they could charge the same thing for an ES 250 AWD as for an ES 350 FWD.
And this is precisely what Lexus is doing. The first clue came from WardsAuto's write-up on the 2021 ES, which includes this sentence:

Lexus will offer the ES 250 AWD in standard, Luxury, Ultra Luxury and F Sport trim levels, and prices will mirror those of the ’21 Lexus ES 350, which starts at $39,900.
Further confirmation comes from Lexus USA's 2020-2021 Model Year MSRP PDF document. It states that those four ES trim levels are priced exactly the same whether ES 250 AWD or ES 350 FWD:

standard: $39,990
Luxury: $45,100
Ultra Luxury: $48,900
F Sport: $45,700
Black Line Special Edition (ES 350 FWD only): $46,550

In the U.S., add $1910 to those prices (standard, Luxury and Ultra Luxury only) for ES 300h.

https://s3-us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lexus-cms-media/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MY-2020-21-Lexus-Pricing-Sheet-08.20.2020.pdf
 

suxeL

Follower
Messages
440
Reaction score
343
No one is buying an ES for performance primarily; value for money (not many entry level sedans that offer as much space as the current ES) luxury is more of its style. So to include AWD, probably slightly better fuel economy (or at least the prospect), lower maintenance costs at the cost of some horsepower and NVH is a no brainer. Probably going to be in demand in less the sunny weather states for sure (remember if you see any form of precipitation outside the local LV store its best to be in AWD vehicle).
 
Last edited:

spwolf

Expert
Messages
2,778
Reaction score
2,884
GS AWD actually had a pretty good take rate in the northeast and Midwest. I think this ES 250 is a stopgap to try to appeal to some of those folks as they retire the GS - albeit a poor one.

If you need AWD because of your climate and you really want a midsize Lexus sedan, at least there will be something available once the GS is gone.
It is just a way to keep their ES production line running well in NA... as you mention, GS AWD and ES AWD do not have many similar points.

At the same time, they are certainly giving their buyers a lot of options these days.
 
Top