The Lexus RZ Megathread (450e, 300e)

[Levi]

To me it sounds like they dont really want sales, so they engineered something that limited amount of people want to buy.

It is simple as that.

Sounds as simple as saying Lexus did not put TTV8 is LC and bring the LC F, did not make a new gen GS F with TTV8 and AWD because they don't really want F car sales, they prefer to give that market to BMW M and Mercedes AMG.

 

[mikeavelli]

Sounds like a ton of EV owners need to move closer to their jobs lol. J/K

 

[ssun30]

With supply chain constraints, demand for such an ideal vehicle would be so high people will start complaining they can't get allocated one. Also goes back to solid state batteries coming to hybrid vehicles in 2025. Lexus probably thinks LI-ion, in this current iteration, is lacking.

That is a valid point. The commodity market has just started its boom cycle. EV materials price will skyrocket in the next 2-3 years. Shortages will be commonplace.

BUT, the RZ450e/bZ4X with their small batteries do not use less materials than competitors. Their battery pack weighs 480kg which is the most common size for a 96s1p BEV4 format pack. From the capacity (201Ah PEVE/205Ah CATL) it's more likely they are using the more conservative NCM622 chemistry, which is more expensive and is more vulnerable to price shocks. The only thing going for them is that they own the PEVE plants so they have control over the supply, but not the price.

They cannot bet on everything getting better with solid state. That's at least 8 years away for mass adoption on EVs, and they use much more lithium. There are a lot of low-hanging fruits for current NCM/LFP chemistries. An improvement of 40% better energy density is achievable around 2025-2027, which means mass market adoption of EVs with 350-400mi of EPA range is possible.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Also goes back to solid state batteries coming to hybrid vehicles in 2025. Lexus probably thinks LI-ion, in this current iteration, is lacking.

They're not wrong. I'd like to not buy an EV until solid-state is shipping, because Li-Ion is a ticking depreciation bomb. But solid-state is increasingly looking like one of those technologies that's always 5 years out.

 

[internalaudit]

They're not wrong. I'd like to not buy an EV until solid-state is shipping, because Li-Ion is a ticking depreciation bomb. But solid-state is increasingly looking like one of those technologies that's always 5 years out.

Solid state batteries getting there. There's at least 25 flavors of it.

If Toyota announced SSB for hybrids in 2025, Honda announced a SSB production line by Spring 2024, Quantumscape announced test results of 16-layers and 800 full cycle charging at 80% capacity, Prologium of Taiwan with ceramic SSB partnering with Gogoro escooters, we are getting there.

There are lots of ways to reduce thermal runaway. I don't even care much about fast charging my future BEV. Significantly longer winter driving range (around 300 km) is fine with me. Longer distance driving than that (which is crazy doing during winter unless driving down to the US), I can take my HEVs or fly out haha.

With many of us owning Toyota's or Lexus vehicles, that wait isn't painful.

Although Toyota/Lexus BEV specs are inferior to the competition, I am sure longevity of the vehicles and battery has been one of the top priorities.

I still recall in the 90s when all new Hondas were announced, the only improvements were 10-20% increased torsion rigidity and 10% improved fuel economy with slight bump in power.

Nowadays, every consumer (most not even in the market for a BEV) wants double the driving range or double the fast charging speed with the upcoming model.

Update:

Samsung SDI says solid-state batteries could come sooner - electrive.com

www.electrive.com

 

[Levi]

Nowadays, every consumer (most not even in the market for a BEV) wants double the driving range or double the fast charging speed with the upcoming model.

When clickbaiters apply Moore's Law to every tech in existence, no doubt expectancy of the ignorant goes to the moon..

 

[NXracer]

So ignoring Tesla, what are the offerings like from the luxury competition?

Audi Q4 etron is the only thing I can think of?

 

[NXracer]

Solid state batteries getting there. There's at least 25 flavors of it.

If Toyota announced SSB for hybrids in 2025, Honda announced a SSB production line by Spring 2024, Quantumscape announced test results of 16-layers and 800 full cycle charging at 80% capacity, Prologium of Taiwan with ceramic SSB partnering with Gogoro escooters, we are getting there.

There are lots of ways to reduce thermal runaway. I don't even care much about fast charging my future BEV. Significantly longer winter driving range (around 300 km) is fine with me. Longer distance driving than that (which is crazy doing during winter unless driving down to the US), I can take my HEVs or fly out haha.

With many of us owning Toyota's or Lexus vehicles, that wait isn't painful.

Although Toyota/Lexus BEV specs are inferior to the competition, I am sure longevity of the vehicles and battery has been one of the top priorities.

I still recall in the 90s when all new Hondas were announced, the only improvements were 10-20% increased torsion rigidity and 10% improved fuel economy with slight bump in power.

Nowadays, every consumer (most not even in the market for a BEV) wants double the driving range or double the fast charging speed with the upcoming model.

Update:

Samsung SDI says solid-state batteries could come sooner - electrive.com

www.electrive.com

Press releases are great on SOP, but full scale mass SSB production deadlines seem to be being moved further down the road to save face.

The inevitable transition to EVs need to be seemless for mass market consumption similar to the execution of the Toyota's hybrid system market introduction; if not it will not make sense to the average joe schmo buyer. Its a tall order since ICEV are far from perfect but nonetheless fast charging and long range, regardless of how many customers actually use that range or charge outside of their house at night is important to the buying public (you can even show them log data and they still would not care).

 

[internalaudit]

Press releases are great on SOP, but full scale mass SSB production deadlines seem to be being moved further down the road to save face.

The inevitable transition to EVs need to be seemless for mass market consumption similar to the execution of the Toyota's hybrid system market introduction; if not it will not make sense to the average joe schmo buyer. Its a tall order since ICEV are far from perfect but nonetheless fast charging and long range, regardless of how many customers actually use that range or charge outside of their house at night is important to the buying public (you can even show them log data and they still would not care).

It's not just solid state batteries. Lots of work being put out on semi-solids and next gen Li-ion batteries.

We know there's a problem with current Li-ion if so many players are getting in on the game. Only EV fans are all praises with current battery chemistries and technologies with no clue there may not even be refurbishment or replacement support down the road. Even with Tesla Model S, there are only four or five reputable battery replacement vendors across the US continent and sometimes with the issues, they would recommend the customer to deal with Tesla because they can't do much about the issue.

Quantumscape seems about ready to have three car manufacturers to test its batteries within a years' time.

I don't know about timelines being pushed out. No one pragmatic enough would think 2025 is when all SSBs will be out in full splendor. Most have suggested second half of this decade. Only ones vocal are those requiring funding like Quantumscape, Solid Power, Ilika and other startups and I guess ESG stuff is forcing Toyota and other manufacturers to speak up once in a while.

As long as non-ZEVs can be bought or sold in the used market, there will be no rush to transition to BEVs. It's only when cities start banning them is it going to be a problem for many commuters. I'm guessing most people on EV sites complaining about the range don't even do long-distance driving much. They're just rationalizing BEVs, at their current state, are not worth adopting, be it financial, utility or convenience. Or for those who already have older BEVs, the current range improvement + new $$ outlay are not worth it.

All I know is battery is the current Achilles Heel of BEVs owing to their cost and replacement availability. For HEVs, smaller HV batteries are now down to $2-3K for original Toyota/Lexus.

I just want longer battery warranty (likely with new chemistry) and decent torque vectoring in a BEV that's not priced way over $60K USD new. Don't even care so much about driving range TBH. Won't mind buying cheap enough used Toyota/Lexus BEV down the road though but not willing to pay full price until my two simple requirements are met.

 

[ssun30]

So ignoring Tesla, what are the offerings like from the luxury competition?

Audi Q4 etron is the only thing I can think of?

Both bZ4X and RZ450e have no direct competition since they go one size segment above the usual competition at the same price. If they were really designed for ChDM then it makes some sense, as size is a key selling point in this market. A bigger car always sell better than a smaller car at the same price.

Despite my dislike of bZ4X/RZ flaws, I feel the E-TNGA platform is decent starting point. It's a big advantage to build a car one size segment larger at the same weight. It clearly has a lot of growing potential (if you look competitor's platforms, they are already fully packed as is). And it's a good indication TMC can build lightweight platforms (like GA-B/C/K/F). GA-N/L are exceptions not rule.

 

[NXracer]

It's not just solid state batteries. Lots of work being put out on semi-solids and next gen Li-ion batteries.

We know there's a problem with current Li-ion if so many players are getting in on the game. Only EV fans are all praises with current battery chemistries and technologies with no clue there may not even be refurbishment or replacement support down the road. Even with Tesla Model S, there are only four or five reputable battery replacement vendors across the US continent and sometimes with the issues, they would recommend the customer to deal with Tesla because they can't do much about the issue.

Quantumscape seems about ready to have three car manufacturers to test its batteries within a years' time.

I don't know about timelines being pushed out. No one pragmatic enough would think 2025 is when all SSBs will be out in full splendor. Most have suggested second half of this decade. Only ones vocal are those requiring funding like Quantumscape, Solid Power, Ilika and other startups and I guess ESG stuff is forcing Toyota and other manufacturers to speak up once in a while.

As long as non-ZEVs can be bought or sold in the used market, there will be no rush to transition to BEVs. It's only when cities start banning them is it going to be a problem for many commuters. I'm guessing most people on EV sites complaining about the range don't even do long-distance driving much. They're just rationalizing BEVs, at their current state, are not worth adopting, be it financial, utility or convenience. Or for those who already have older BEVs, the current range improvement + new $$ outlay are not worth it.

All I know is battery is the current Achilles Heel of BEVs owing to their cost and replacement availability. For HEVs, smaller HV batteries are now down to $2-3K for original Toyota/Lexus.

I just want longer battery warranty (likely with new chemistry) and decent torque vectoring in a BEV that's not priced way over $60K USD new. Don't even care so much about driving range TBH. Won't mind buying cheap enough used Toyota/Lexus BEV down the road though but not willing to pay full price until my two simple requirements are met.

But is that a problem that effects the majority of new car owners? While reliability and longevity of a vehicle are good for environment and brand image, do most owners intend to keep their vehicles for more then 10 years and/or 150-620K miles (where the Toyota forecasts at max 30% range loss and others forecast 10%?)

Will Toyota reap any benefit from having customers who keep their products extended periods of time?

Edit: for ref battery degradation seems to be about 10-15% after 150k-200k miles for Teslas. Toyota design was 70% after 10yrs/620k miles.

 

[Levi]

While reliability and longevity of a vehicle are good for environment and brand image, do most owners intend to keep their vehicles for more then 10 years and/or 150-620K miles (where the Toyota forecasts at max 30% range loss and others forecast 10%?)

By looking at Alfa Romeo and Maserati sales, i.e low, yes car owners care about reliability and longevity, that is why they avoid these two brands, even they may have objectively better products.

 

[NXracer]

By looking at Alfa Romeo and Maserati sales, i.e low, yes car owners care about reliability and longevity, that is why they avoid these two brands, even they may have objectively better products.

Yet they exist with all those Range Rover owners whose ceilings leak when their is a drizzle, BMW vehicles with electrical systems that **** the bed while parked. But even then will the majority of new luxury car owners care how bad their vehicle battery degrades after their lease is over in 24-36 months (Majority of the NA luxury market leases, 60% of Lexus owners lease their vehicles).

 

[Sulu]

Yet they exist with all those Range Rover owners whose ceilings leak when their is a drizzle, BMW vehicles with electrical systems that **** the bed while parked. But even then will the majority of new luxury car owners care how bad their vehicle battery degrades after their lease is over in 24-36 months (Majority of the NA luxury market leases, 60% of Lexus owners lease their vehicles).

If Toyota and Lexus did not believe that durability and reliability to be features that its customers consider important, I believe that Toyota / Lexus would have given up on it long ago. According to enthusiasts here, Lexus has few redeeming features, yet we keep returning to the brand because the vehicles are reliable and last.

 

[internalaudit]

But is that a problem that effects the majority of new car owners? While reliability and longevity of a vehicle are good for environment and brand image, do most owners intend to keep their vehicles for more then 10 years and/or 150-620K miles (where the Toyota forecasts at max 30% range loss and others forecast 10%?)

Will Toyota reap any benefit from having customers who keep their products extended periods of time?

Edit: for ref battery degradation seems to be about 10-15% after 150k-200k miles for Teslas. Toyota design was 70% after 10yrs/620k miles.

Almost everyone cares about their cars resale value. Be it someone planning to own it for 3, 5, 10 years. Maybe there's no concern at the time if purchase but surely there will be at the time of sale. The more reliable the car the higher the resale value plain and simple.

You haven't perused Tesla Motor clubs much have you? Lots of long time Model S owners are concerned with battery longevity! Who cares about these anecdotal ratings especially from a company like Tesla?

 

[internalaudit]

Yet they exist with all those Range Rover owners whose ceilings leak when their is a drizzle, BMW vehicles with electrical systems that **** the bed while parked. But even then will the majority of new luxury car owners care how bad their vehicle battery degrades after their lease is over in 24-36 months (Majority of the NA luxury market leases, 60% of Lexus owners lease their vehicles).

Multi-millionaires who care about what others think of them and who have staff who can bring cars to dealerships for servicing probably don't bother with Lexus vehicles. Money and time are no object.

Reliability only matters if you have to bring your car for repairs yourself. If you have someone else to do it for you, and you have the financial wherewithal, who cares about reliability? There's the factory warranty to cover issues during the first few years anyway.

I don't lease. I care about reliability because I cannot afford to keep paying thousands of hard earned dollars for repairs every few months post warranty. I also don't like to face the service department for repair works as much as possible. Lexus provides more exciting rides than Toyota's.

Maybe I am the minority but like I said, some middle to upper middle class care about resale value. Cheaper lease rates, higher resale values, peace of mind while cruising on the highways post warranty period.

 

[NXracer]

If Toyota and Lexus did not believe that durability and reliability to be features that its customers consider important, I believe that Toyota / Lexus would have given up on it long ago. According to enthusiasts here, Lexus has few redeeming features, yet we keep returning to the brand because the vehicles are reliable and last.

True, but while reliability matters it alone does not take precedence when purchasing every single new vehicle, or else we'd all be driving toyota products? In addition, are you suggesting with current battery degradation figures that current EVs will becomes disposable junk far earlier then say an ICEV/PHEV vehicle?

 

[NXracer]

Almost everyone cares about their cars resale value. Be it someone planning to own it for 3, 5, 10 years. Maybe there's no concern at the time if purchase but surely there will be at the time of sale. The more reliable the car the higher the resale value plain and simple.

You haven't perused Tesla Motor clubs much have you? Lots of long time Model S owners are concerned with battery longevity! Who cares about these anecdotal ratings especially from a company like Tesla?

Multi-millionaires who care about what others think of them and who have staff who can bring cars to dealerships for servicing probably don't bother with Lexus vehicles. Money and time are no object.

Reliability only matters if you have to bring your car for repairs yourself. If you have someone else to do it for you, and you have the financial wherewithal, who cares about reliability? There's the factory warranty to cover issues during the first few years anyway.

I don't lease. I care about reliability because I cannot afford to keep paying thousands of hard earned dollars for repairs every few months post warranty. I also don't like to face the service department for repair works as much as possible. Lexus provides more exciting rides than Toyota's.

Maybe I am the minority but like I said, some middle to upper middle class care about resale value. Cheaper lease rates, higher resale values, peace of mind while cruising on the highways post warranty period.

Fair enough, however we are talking about battery degradation as the Achilles heel. If at 10yrs/620k miles the battery degrades 30% how much more reliability specifically in regards to the battery would folks want and would that increase result in more sales?

 

[Levi]

True, but while reliability matters it alone does not take precedence when purchasing every single new vehicle, or else we'd all be driving toyota products? In addition, are you suggesting with current battery degradation figures that current EVs will becomes disposable junk far earlier then say an ICEV/PHEV vehicle?

True, or else all would be driving TMC cars. The contrary is also true, or else nobody would be driving TMC cars.

 

[internalaudit]

Fair enough, however we are talking about battery degradation as the Achilles heel. If at 10yrs/620k miles the battery degrades 30% how much more reliability specifically in regards to the battery would folks want and would that increase result in more sales?

You think it's just battery longevity people consider? There are a lot of factors that affect BEV sales but a prime one is how long the battery will last. Right now the warranty is still at eight years for all BEVs, even for the bZ4X here in Canada.

Until that warranty goes beyond eight years, there has been no change to "longevity" or "peace of mind" to merit any increase in sales. These battery ratings from Tesla are not even backed by anything. If the batteries lasts a very long time, why then did Tesla removed unlimited mileage on the S and X in early 2020?

I don't know about future sales but I bought my friend's '12 CT200h for less than $5,000 USD in March 2020 when used car market wasn't doing well. I wasn't timing the purchase, my brother-in-law backed out and I was the middleman and I thought it was a good price.

Today, the cheapest listed in my province is around $10,000 and most are listed for $11-12K. And there's but 10-12 listed at one time.

Perceived and real reliability definitely affects the used car value. Someone with a '12 Cadillac CTS is happy to get $3-4,000 USD for this car. My Accord can sell for double that (probably in better condition) and the MSRP for the CTS-V was likely $7K if not more higher than my Honda.