Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[zeusus]

There are clearly a lot of opinions surrounding this topic...

Here are the facts.

BMW USA 2019 - 324,826 (+4.4% YoY)

MB USA 2019 - 316,094 (+0%)

Lexus USA 2019 - 298,114 (-0.1%)


BMW has won the belt back for 2019 and congratulations to them for that, trouncing #2 and #3.

Though for those saying MB is lightyears away from Lexus. Well as far as buyers signing on the dotted line, I suppose you'd be wrong since they're only 0.1% better. All that extra R&D spent on those in-betweener niche segment cars, all the AMG models, all the things that supposed enthusiasts here saying Lexus absolutely needs to compete with MB and they only scrapped up 0.1% more in sales over Lexus or 135 units over their own 2018 figures. I also quickly cross referenced SUV sales between the 3 brands and does it paint a clear picture of Lexus losing steam? Not really....but critics can look at the numbers for themselves and help me understand where it all went wrong. Honestly, it just seems just like a bunch of emotion derived mumbo jumbo to me.

There is no doubt Lexus' lineup is old but we have to separate the facts from the emotions. I don't think Lexus needed any new engines, didn't need more LED-turn signals, or an updated GS, these are all the wants of a niche market enthusiast. All Lexus had to do to get #2 was have better incentives and maybe a better supply of cars during that one super down month this year (anybody remember that? when all the "enthusiasts" shat on Lexus over a fluke month, thats loyalty for ya!). Thats not to say that I wouldn't love seeing extra features, all new GS, more power, more interior customization, and everything else people complain about here.

I'm 1000% for Lexus bringing better products but I'm not going to follow the crowd on all this doom and gloom when the facts don't necessarily warrant it. Anybody that follows the Lexus Enthusiast monthly sales reports would not be surprised by these results.

 

[ssun30]

Their sales figures have nothing to do with GS, F, or LED turn signals. They don't have enough crossovers and are caught unprepared as competitors fill every size segment of crossover possible.

 

[lexusman2000]

I think as Lexus fans, it was becoming hard to deny this. I've mentioned this before, but Lexus began to shine in 2012-2013 when they introduced a new identity with their spindle grille and sportier approach. The problem, though, was that they distanced themselves too much from their heritage. I personally LOVE the new LS, but I do have to agree with people when they say it looks too sporty. It went from a luxurious "limousine" to a...kind of...larger IS. The interior is very beautiful, but it's something that should have gone in a new GS (if we had one). I think it should be more luxurious looking and just stunning like the SClass. I know some of y'all from Instagram, and I don't know if I am the only one who has noticed this, but recently a lot of people are trading in their Lexus models for Mercedes, Audi, etc. because these brands - and I hate admitting this - offer sportier versions but also have that super luxurious, high-end variants that Lexus just seems to fail to do, and I hate seeing people trade-in these great cars to the competition. Also, I am sorry, but Lexus base models are just...bland/boring from the simplest of things like non-LED turn signals in a base model (I know that's a stretch, but in today's world, non-LED lights make a car look A) non-luxurious and B) like it came from 2010). Just like the article states, I have also seen people say things about Genesis becoming the new Lexus, and that is the most heart wrenching thing to hear. I do NOT want to see this brand become an Infiniti or an Acura - outshined and forgotten by rising brands (does anyone even remember when Acura was actually so desirable? Because it truly once was). Those brands have struggled for YEARS and still can't cure their problems. Lexus really needs to speed stuff up. I am lowkey starting to dislike Toyota on account that all priority is going to them and not the Lexus brand like the ugly Mirai over the GS project. Akio Toyoda should not be able to kill off the GS just because he was never a fan of it because a lot of enthusiasts (not just Lexus ones) love it (Besides, it sold decently. It's just so dated now that it looks like it doesn't sell). I hope and pray that 2020 is the year of the Lexus comeback: going back to the luxurious roots while keeping the new sportier image (let's even combine the slogans - The Pursuit of the Amazing or something), amping up the F brand more, stop letting models go a decade without change, making interiors high-end looking (the new ES is gorgeous but the interior looks like 2010 RX's), and providing to what customers and enthusiasts are asking for! Why did it take so long for an RXL? And an SC replacement? Why is GS dying? Where's our first F Crossover? Why can Mercedes, BMW, and Audi produce all these different types of vehicles like mice producing offsprings while Lexus takes as long as an elephant carrying a baby to produce something new?

EDIT: Let me add one more thing: Lexus needs to quit it with this stupid ad campaign of "Lexus Curiosity." I have not talked to a single person that even remotely understands it. Maybe, they need to stop putting all their focus in something that is providing no outcome whatsoever and put it into producing new vehicles.

Okay, sorry for my rant. I am just so tired of seeing Lexus, a brand people used to add to rap songs, seem to fade away.

 

[lexusman2000]

I totaly agree, @zeusus. As an IS300h F-Sport 2014 driver from Austria, Europe I also find it quite embarassing having non-LED turning lights both in the front and end.
A No-Go!

 

[lexusman2000]

Their sales figures have nothing to do with GS, F, or LED turn signals. They don't have enough crossovers and are caught unprepared as competitors fill every size segment of crossover possible.

 

[lexusman2000]

However, several low costs brands like Seat, Skoda and others are offering stunning LED day running lights with integrated turning signals.
In Austria, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are the "Lexus".

 

[mikeavelli]

I think many of us feel 300k is around the ceiling in the USA. Lexus was flat in 2019, a pretty amazing accomplishment since most of the lineup is older and still relatively tiny compared to the Germans. So
Even with a fresh lineup I don’t see sales climbing much past this mark. Especially not with Tesla and Genesis and Lincoln etc coming.

To me the shift to sportier and more stylish will pay dividends in the future. If you talk to young people they admire Lexus cars, particularly the F cars and like the styling.

We do need new engines and new product and electric and/or hydrogen to continue the push forward. I also would like to see some adjustments to packaging. For example my LC has no front camera or around view monitor options.

There are clearly a lot of opinions surrounding this topic...

Here are the facts.

BMW USA 2019 - 324,826 (+4.4% YoY)

MB USA 2019 - 316,094 (+0%)

Lexus USA 2019 - 298,114 (-0.1%)


BMW has won the belt back for 2019 and congratulations to them for that, trouncing #2 and #3.

Though for those saying MB is lightyears away from Lexus. Well as far as buyers signing on the dotted line, I suppose you'd be wrong since they're only 0.1% better. All that extra R&D spent on those in-betweener niche segment cars, all the AMG models, all the things that supposed enthusiasts here saying Lexus absolutely needs to compete with MB and they only scrapped up 0.1% more in sales over Lexus or 135 units over their own 2018 figures. I also quickly cross referenced SUV sales between the 3 brands and does it paint a clear picture of Lexus losing steam? Not really....but critics can look at the numbers for themselves and help me understand where it all went wrong. Honestly, it just seems just like a bunch of emotion derived mumbo jumbo to me.

There is no doubt Lexus' lineup is old but we have to separate the facts from the emotions. I don't think Lexus needed any new engines, didn't need more LED-turn signals, or an updated GS, these are all the wants of a niche market enthusiast. All Lexus had to do to get #2 was have better incentives and maybe a better supply of cars during that one super down month this year (anybody remember that? when all the "enthusiasts" shat on Lexus over a fluke month, thats loyalty for ya!). Thats not to say that I wouldn't love seeing extra features, all new GS, more power, more interior customization, and everything else people complain about here.

I'm 1000% for Lexus bringing better products but I'm not going to follow the crowd on all this doom and gloom when the facts don't necessarily warrant it. Anybody that follows the Lexus Enthusiast monthly sales reports would not be surprised by these results.

Don’t forget the Feds are investigating BMWs sales reporting techniques. Apparently a lot of questionable things are being done.

 

[mordecai]

My first reaction was to totally agree with you, but then I double-checked my constantly-updated tally of @Carmaker1 future Lexus and Toyota predictions. As of now, the 4th-gen Lexus IS is seemingly scheduled to enter production on July 2020 for the 2021 model year. If this hasn't changed, we could see 4IS make its world debut at Geneva 2019, following on the 2IS world premiere there in 2005.


I totally agree. I think that CT will be a one-generation wonder just like HS was. Let me put it another way: I'd be royally pissed if resources and manpower sorely needed for updating all of Lexus' SUV and crossover lineup bar UX, doing something about IS and updating the flagship cars (all higher priorities) were instead diverted towards developing a hardly-necessary 2CT.


While 3IS was introduced at the 2013 Detroit Auto Show, IS-related launches have happened all over the world (2IS in Geneva, 3IS refresh in Beijing).


Sadly, this seems to be one of the delayed Lexus SUVs and crossovers. Per @Carmaker1 , 2NX was originally on roughly the same timetable as 4IS I cited in my first reply above, but has now been pushed back a year, until the 2021 calendar year / 2022 model year. Possible delays in setting up Canadian NX production (once predicted for September 2019 but, in fact, officially confirmed for early 2022) may be a factor.

Great, my irrational Lexus Enthusiast self will now be disappointed if the 4IS is not revealed at the Geneva Auto Show. 🤣

 

[Lexus Cohen]

They really need to freshen up their aging lineup. Seriously poor product planning. The last all new product is the UX, which to me is quite an amateur product designed by a novice. At least it’s selling relatively well. But what CUV with 4 wheels isn’t? 🤷‍♂️

I’ve just realized that the Detroit show is now in June instead of January. Lexus has used Detroit to make their new product announcements or new LF concepts. The next big auto show is Geneva in early March. I wonder if they will finally show the LF-1 production model then. They stand to lose more brand mindshare if they don’t pick up their pace.

The LF-1 production model is taking too long to hit the market. The GS, IS, GX and LX all need to be redesigned.

 

[CRSKTN]

The LF-1 production model is taking too long to hit the market. The GS, IS, GX and LX all need to be redesigned.

Seems like the new GS got cancelled, and turned into the frankenstein's monster that is the next generation Mirai.

The IS hopefully gets updated, and the ES/LS aren't the only 2 sedans left.

The GX and LX are built on other platforms, and seem to sell well given the limited investment it probably takes to keep them at whatever extremely low hurdle the fans of these platforms have been OK with.

No idea what they're doing. And the idea that their sales are doing OK now, therefore their actions aren't mistakes is short sighted.
I own a business, and before that I had a job analyzing and being critical of corporate strategy and performance. There is always a significant lag on the impacts of these decisions.

It's the same reason some brands try to get exposure to young kids through media and other vectors. You think Porsche, BMW, or others don't want young kids growing up, choosing those cars in whatever racing game they're playing, and growing up having those cars etched in their minds as desirable?

Why does Juul advertise to kids? Why does anyone? "Get them hooked young".
Look at Star Wars. Look at how many adults continue to pour money into their offerings, even when subpar, because of nostalgia.

Lexus was on a good roll when they started becoming more stylish and sportier, but if they don't give people something to be excited about, why would anyone hold Lexus in higher regard than other brands which have done a better job of capturing imaginations?

Just because a weak lineup doesn't hurt Lexus now, doesn't mean it can't hurt it in the future.

 

[Gecko]

^great post.

 

[Gecko]

Their sales figures have nothing to do with GS, F, or LED turn signals. They don't have enough crossovers and are caught unprepared as competitors fill every size segment of crossover possible.

That's part of it.

Hybrids, plugins and alternative fuels are the other part.

At this point, nobody can write off Tesla as a joke or failed experiment anymore. People want electric, and Lexus has nothing to offer. Lexus' hybrid strategy is all over the map and leaves a lot to be desired. You have frugal and very livable ES 300h, but old NXh and RXh while Toyota has all-new RAV4 hybrid, (with only a 6 day supply because it's so hot!) and now RAV4 Prime. By now, we should have also had "ES Prime," for sure. I understand the delay of NX and RX because of model cycles, but rumors of the NX being pushed out another year are no good.

If the only new Lexus model for 2020 is the IS, these types of discussions a year from now are going to be very ugly.

 

[JFB]

“Genesis is taking that baton. They are what Lexus used to be: affordable, comfy and stress-free.”

This is the most cutting statement of all. Lexus vehicles are still stress-free, but they're less affordable and significantly less comfy. The front seats in the UX are like boards. And about three inches deep. Where have the gorgeous cosseting seats gone? The 3G RX was the last model to have them. (And I'm hanging onto mine till the comfy seats come back...)

 

[Gecko]

That's part of it.

Hybrids, plugins and alternative fuels are the other part.

At this point, nobody can write off Tesla as a joke or failed experiment anymore. People want electric, and Lexus has nothing to offer. Lexus' hybrid strategy is all over the map and leaves a lot to be desired. You have frugal and very livable ES 300h, but old NXh and RXh while Toyota has all-new RAV4 hybrid, (with only a 6 day supply because it's so hot!) and now RAV4 Prime. By now, we should have also had "ES Prime," for sure. I understand the delay of NX and RX because of model cycles, but rumors of the NX being pushed out another year are no good.

If the only new Lexus model for 2020 is the IS, these types of discussions a year from now are going to be very ugly.

Weird to quote your own post, but this is something I thought more about overnight, so to continue my own thought:

Who remembers the period of 2006 - 2007 when we had IS, ES, GS and LS all redesigned within such a short time... and then the sedans went stale for a decade? I don't necessarily know that Lexus needs "more CUVs" outside of LF-1, but if NX is pushed out a year, we will see the following new model introductions and redesigns over ~18 months for MY2022-2024.

NX
RX / RX-L?
LF-1
GX
LX
LS refresh
LC refresh/redesign
ES refresh

... that's a lot, and you'd think Lexus would have learned something from these extended model cycles for GX, LX, LS, IS and product launches that are grouped too closely together. Their product planning is going in bursts, instead of the type of "drip" that helps to maintain showroom traffic and overall momentum via press and media coverage. I am personally worried about the introduction of RX/LF-1 within a tight timeframe. Ideally, NX and RX would be something like ~2/3 years apart to keep their two core models on alternating cycles.

 

[spwolf]

Ideally, NX and RX would be something like ~2/3 years apart to keep their two core models on alternating cycles.

To do that, something would have to end up being very late and then everyone would complain...

As to the exciting EVs - news coming out this week that exciting new EQC sold 55 copies in last 2 months in Germany. GLC diesel probably sold 30x better in Germany for the same time period.

Same goes for Genesis, lots of forum talk and very low sales despite huge discounts and generally a lot of value per yard.

They cant even product enough batteries for their successful hybrids, which is why they are making sales of Rav4 Prime staggered by region - and it is actually not available yet, it will be only in 3-4 months. Who exactly is asking for ES Prime?

 

[Gecko]

To do that, something would have to end up being very late and then everyone would complain...

As to the exciting EVs - news coming out this week that exciting new EQC sold 55 copies in last 2 months in Germany. GLC diesel probably sold 30x better in Germany for the same time period.

Same goes for Genesis, lots of forum talk and very low sales despite huge discounts and generally a lot of value per yard.

They cant even product enough batteries for their successful hybrids, which is why they are making sales of Rav4 Prime staggered by region - and it is actually not available yet, it will be only in 3-4 months. Who exactly is asking for ES Prime?

NX came out in 2014, so pushing to 2021 as a 2022MY makes it a 7 year product cycle... RX came out in 2015, and seems to be on schedule for 2022 reveal as 2023 model year (7 years). If Lexus was wise, they would have launched NX this year as 2021, which gives breathing room between a 2021 NX and 2023 RX. Highlander, Rav4 and TNGA-K are all out now, so the foundation and most of the R&D for these vehicles has been available for some time - not sure why this all seems to be taking so long. Lexus used to work on 5 year product cycles but they've been getting longer and longer - while the competition is moving faster. There is little excuse for this.

I cannot speak to sales of other electric CUVs. Here, Audi eTron is selling very well but last I heard, EQC was delayed. Hard to speak for Genesis when their lineup has no CUVs, and their first one is still a year away. I think the brand has the viability and investment to be a key player, but their product planning has also been shortsighted with only sedans in a CUV market.

Who is asking for ES Prime? Is that a serious question? ES is Lexus' highest volume sedan - do you not think a plugin 300hp version with 40 miles of range would fly off shelves? People still are unsure of battery tech and yet Lexus has the highest perceived reliability by many. Lexus + plug-in/BEV would be a combination that could rival Tesla, mostly because the tech is seen as unproven but there is high trust for Lexus. It seems that Audi and others have enough of a jump start that their technology will likely be perfected and reliable by the time Lexus gets something viable to market.

ES "Prime" with AWD could be a truly game changing vehicle for Lexus, and kill two birds with one stone: plugin/high efficiency, and sporty with great acceleration.

 

[Deusex]

Seeing at how slow is Lexus with new releases, for the first time in 10yrs I'm looking at different brands after my RX lease ends.

 

[Will1991]

To do that, something would have to end up being very late and then everyone would complain...

As to the exciting EVs - news coming out this week that exciting new EQC sold 55 copies in last 2 months in Germany. GLC diesel probably sold 30x better in Germany for the same time period.

Same goes for Genesis, lots of forum talk and very low sales despite huge discounts and generally a lot of value per yard.

They cant even product enough batteries for their successful hybrids, which is why they are making sales of Rav4 Prime staggered by region - and it is actually not available yet, it will be only in 3-4 months. Who exactly is asking for ES Prime?

It sold 55 for December 2019... Mercedes already stated how they will need to kill AMG version to comply with emissions regulations, even KIA/Hyundai postponed a lot of deliveries from October-December to January 2020 to improve average fleet emissions...

Tesla was the only one really trying to deliver as much BEV’s as possible for the entire Q4 2019...

Regarding a ES Prime, not sure if it would be in my price range, but I would. I’m looking to go full BEV but a proper PHEV would be enough for me.

 

[Sulu]

“Genesis is taking that baton. They are what Lexus used to be: affordable, comfy and stress-free.”

This is the most cutting statement of all. Lexus vehicles are still stress-free, but they're less affordable and significantly less comfy. The front seats in the UX are like boards. And about three inches deep. Where have the gorgeous cosseting seats gone? The 3G RX was the last model to have them. (And I'm hanging onto mine till the comfy seats come back...)

If Genesis is following in Lexus' footsteps (from 30 years ago), it is because Genesis is not only a new brand, but a new upmarket (luxury) brand from a now well-established mass-market brand. Genesis has to prove itself as a viable luxury brand, just as Lexus (and Acura and Infiniti) had to prove itself as a viable luxury brand.

The way to prove the viability of an automotive brand is to compare the brand with some other, well-established, well-recognized brand(s). To prove viability as a luxury brand, what better way than to compare to the German luxury automakers, the standard-bearers when it comes to viable, yet attainable automotive luxury?

Lexus did that for years -- compare itself against the German luxury brands -- yet simultaneously claiming that it is better: Lexus was as good as the Germans (even look like a Mercedes-Benz), yet cheaper. That is how it attracted new buyers. This is now the path that Genesis is following.

If the new Lexus is no longer the old Lexus, that is because Lexus is now a recognized, established luxury automaker, no longer has to establish itself, and it can (and arguably should) go its own way and find its own path. Lexus can (and should, in my opinion) establish its own identity as a viable (Japanese, as opposed to German) luxury brand and no longer needs to build better, yet cheaper, copies of Mercedes-Benz cars.

 

[Sulu]

I don't necessarily know that Lexus needs "more CUVs" outside of LF-1, but if NX is pushed out a year, we will see the following new model introductions and redesigns over ~18 months for MY2022-2024.

NX
RX / RX-L?
LF-1
GX [this is a Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) and not a car-based Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV)]
LX [this is a Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) and not a car-based Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV)]
LS refresh
LC refresh/redesign
ES refresh

... that's a lot, and you'd think Lexus would have learned something from these extended model cycles for GX, LX, LS, IS and product launches that are grouped too closely together. Their product planning is going in bursts, instead of the type of "drip" that helps to maintain showroom traffic and overall momentum via press and media coverage. I am personally worried about the introduction of RX/LF-1 within a tight timeframe. Ideally, NX and RX would be something like ~2/3 years apart to keep their two core models on alternating cycles.

I am not sure how you justify that Lexus needs to be more like the Germans, yet can argue that having 3 car-based crossovers is enough. Crossovers are selling much, much better than sedans, and the German luxury brands (especially Mercedes-Benz and BMW) seemingly have a CUV to meet every niche (both real and imagined) in the market.

Lexus has the subcompact UX, the compact NX and the mid-size RX. MB has those categories covered (GLB, GLC, GLE) plus it has an even smaller model (GLA) and full-size model (GLS), not to mention the crossover coupe models. I have lost track of how many crossovers that BMW offers (my son tried to convince me the other day that there is a BMW X9 model (I don't know -- is there?). If BMW filled every imagined X model niche, it could theoretically have 9 crossover models (assuming my son is correct).

Maybe Lexus does not need to have as many crossovers as the German brands do, but could Lexus be losing customers to the German brands because it is missing a key model in a key market category?