I am not sure that you are understanding my point here. If Toyota is already going to need to engineer a mainstream workhorse V6 for products like 4Runner, Highlander, Tacoma, GX, RX... why would it make sense to also engineer a completely different engine with similar output but that is more complicated and less durable (a 4 cylinder turbo will be less smooth, durable, reliable than a small V6 of the same output). The only justification I can think of is if the tax burden goes up significantly between 2.6 and 3.0L or 3.5L. Then, a larger displacement 2.4/2.5L engine will be advantageous over a 3.0L+ engine, even if they produce the same amount of power. Maybe someone like
@spwolf can explain the displacement taxes to us.
Read that section of my post one more time intricately and you'll see that I answered your question. The NA V6 won't stay forever. It will subside at the end of the new generation cars that are being released. I am the biggest supporter for the 3.5 NA V6 but the truth is that they will move to turbocharged 4-cylinder engines as a replacement. But many Toyota/Lexus fans love the idea of a V6 engine in their small cars (unlike other customer bases) so the 3.5 TT V6 could appear in those models. I do have to correct my old post and you're probably right about detuning it now because it will be a bit too crazy speaking of power and torque. And in regards to your point about taxes, they never cared much about the tax heavy countries as much. I know this sounds ignorant, but why would they stress about it now? Like someone else said, I think they will just use a small NA 4-cylinder unit that they have already and hybridize that motor.
We are here in the age of 300+hp Camry, so I would not say "never." If history is any indication, cost sharing between Toyota and Lexus works well for Toyota because cars like Camry, Avalon and Highlander get large, sophisticated, powerful engines since they are platform-mates with RX and ES. Lexus will have to push higher in the future, especially for RX. I expect some trickle down effect at Toyota. My whole point is that I do not see Toyota putting a turbo 4 under the hood of the 4Runner, Highlander, Tacoma, RX or GX (at least in North America) for quite a while.
2GR-FKS in the Tacoma has been very unpopular with owners/shoppers as it has a very sedan-like torque curve and power delivery. Many 4Runner owners are dreading this engine coming to the 4Runner for this very reason - it's a higher horsepower engine that's higher revving but low on torque. Pretty much exactly what you don't want for an actual work truck or heavy BOF vehicle. Toyota could very well say, "screw it" and drop the 301hp V6 underhood, but it would be nice if they didn't.
This will simply never happen as Lexus' bread and butter - ES, RX, NX and upcoming UX - are all FWD. As GS is retired, ES prominence and importance will only grow.
Just because we are in the age of a 300+ horsepower FWD Toyotas does NOT mean they're viable at all for the future. I've said this before, people have been angry because of the lack of traction, heavy front end, and petrifying amounts of torque steer. That by itself is a huge turnoff and people will move in hordes towards the Accord or the new Maxima with the AWD system. The Avalon is actually worse. So no, they must develop an amazing AWD system for Toyota and shift to RWD/powerful AWD cars for Lexus, because it is simply not viable anymore. Unless they want to build that Audi reputation, that is the stupidest thing they could do.
I understand in regards to the Tacoma, and I know what it's like. It is gravelly and it is howling for more torque. You have to rev the sh*t out of the engine to get any result. Turbo V6's and Turbo 4's are coming to those cars.
The only car that makes sense as a FWD car is the UX, because for it's purpose, FWD ultimately helps the UX become the more zippier car in towns and cities. It costs less, which helps for a entry-level Lexus, and should have handling which should gently welcome the person into the brand. Remember, the UX's creation was to allow younger customers to have a taste of Lexus, and everything about the UX's kit makes sense as an entry level car for the brand. HOWEVER, as you move up, their cars should not fall apart like the ES, RX and NX. Lexus wants to take the fight to the big boys from Europe once more, but this isn't the way. They may be successful in NA and Japan, but Europe, Middle East, South America has the possibility to unlock so much sales for Lexus. Even then, they could still improve their NA sales too by a huge margin. There shouldn't be any reason for them to be a runner-up to Mercedes-Benz. NA was always supposed to be the market for Lexus. But the GLC, C, GLE, E, and GLA are snatching sales. Now what are the competitors to those cars? The NX, IS, RX, ES, and UX.
GS is not retired. Why are you saying that......
I haven't seen that... in fact, many of them are starting to ban ICE completely in large cities. Source?
I've only heard of rumors to be honest. That's why I stated it because it is a possibility.
2.0L 2.4 L/2.5 L I4 T or TT (we don't know for sure): ~280-300hp
Lexus applications: UX F, NX 350, IS 350, ES 350, RC 350,
GS 350, GX350, base RX 350 for global markets
Toyota applications: Base engine for 4Runner/Tacoma/Highlander/Supra, optional on Rav4 GR/TRD,
(possibly Sienna too???)
The 2.4/2.5L I4 will never replace the 2.0T because of global taxes on displacement, as mentioned above.
We don't know for sure. ^^
3.0/3.5L T/TT V6: ~360- ~400+hp
Lexus applications: NX 450, base RX 450 for USA, GX 450, IS 450, ES 450, RC 450, LS 450,
GS 450, LC 450, LX 450, LF-1 450 (I guess we're going to bring the denominations down from 500 [the LS and LC] to 450)
Toyota applications: Optional on 4Runner/Tacoma/Highlander, base on Tundra/Sequoia/Land Cruiser,
(possibly Sienna too???), RAV4 could also make an appearance here
There will never be a 416hp 4Runner, Tacoma, Highlander, etc. if for no other reason than that engine is way too expensive for mainstream $35-50k applications. 3.5L TT V6 is good as an option on higher trims of Tundra, Sequoia and Land Cruiser - that part is logical. Those vehicles all still need a base engine though - that's logically the optional or standard engine on 4Runner, Tacoma, Highlander, etc.
Why wouldn't there be? It is their next level V6 engine? Yes it will come at a premium but you need to remember what Toyota/Lexus customer base is like. They WANT engines like these, especially in NA. As for the base engine, the 4-cylinder will do wonders. I believe in these guys knocking it out of the park.
4.0L T V8: ~450 - 500hp
Lexus applications: LS 550, LC 550, LX 550, LF-1 "550", IS F, RC F (if ever on GA-L, RX F) (You can do that if you want to confuse your customers, though I think that's an interesting idea to be honest )
Toyota applications: Optional on Tundra, Sequoia, Land Cruiser
The more that I think about it, I believe Toyota truly sees the V35A-FTS as their corporate replacement for a flexible, workhorse V8, so this probably won't happen at all. I simply included it as an engine that is a missed opportunity. Tundra will probably be the highest volume vehicle needing a 400+hp engine, and they already have that with the TT V6. I assume Toyota will say that engine is "good enough" and let it stand with no other uplevel option.
I didn't cross out the Toyota applications by the way. I personally think that they would put a single turbocharged V8 as a workhorse engine for the BOF Toyota cars, just nothing Lexus.
4.0L TT V8: ~600-625hp AND (mid 500 HP range) --> so we're looking at two guises here
Lexus applications: LS F, LC F, LF-1 F, LX F,
NX F (if we're looking at this like Mercedes-Benz), RX F (same what I said for NX), IS F, RC F, GS F, ES F (same what I said for NX), GX F and then...... go for the lower tune V8 engine for the ES 500/RX 500 all the way to the flagship models.
What? lol
Why lol? I mentioning how that they should aim it towards Mercedes-Benz and their AMG division. The lower tune V8's are also used in mid-to-high range Audi's/Mercedes-Benz's/BMW's before the full blown spec which is their RS/AMG/M cars. This actually makes total sense in terms of appeal. I don't see your "lol" at all. Don't you remember the GS400/GS430? I do remember how it was the fastest sedan in the world back in the 90's.