While I agree with your reasoning, and would absolutely love to see the next-gen LS in Tokyo, I have some doubts unfortunately as to how likely this is going to be. As krew pointed out, if the LS debuts in Tokyo this year, it would contradict Jeff Bracken's statement early this year about the number of new models and refreshes due for Lexus this year. Also as krew pointed out, unless something significantly has changed timing-wise, it would be odd to see the LS at Tokyo. Now if timing for Lexus has indeed changed, then an updated statement from Lexus to clarify things would certainly go a long way. Then again, they could want to keep the timing secret.
My hypothesis: we might see an LS concept at Tokyo, and then the full production LS in Detroit early next year. If a production LS was going to show in Tokyo, as you pointed out, we should have been seeing camouflaged prototypes with production bodies being caught testing right now. Most recently, months before its recent Spring debut, new RX prototypes with camouflaged production bodies were spotted testing in several locations in Europe.
Aside from the inconsistency with the earlier statement from Lexus, the fact that we haven't seen any production-body prototypes photographed at all yet leads me to conclude that a Tokyo debut for the production LS would be too soon.
I would love to see it, just out of sheer anticipation. However if a production LS did appear in Tokyo, I would also have some doubts about the testing program. A redesign of this scale and importance would logically have a very long and exhaustive testing program.
I think that we may see production-body camouflaged prototypes of the new LS pop up in the next few months, which would fit logically with a Detroit debut early next year, along with showroom arrivals presumably late next year.
It seems that it is consistent with the article from the Japanese magazine -- MAG X/2015-08 issue. In this magazine, there is a article that talks about what cars from different brands will appear in the Tokyo Motor Show 2015.
Here is some information from the article with regards to Lexus vehicles in Tokyo Motor Show 2015 (keep fingers crossed to see if it is true)
- LS250t will appear in the show for sure - it will have 4-dr coupe silhouette. The rest of the paragraph is purely speculation about the specifics. The title says downsizing engine and F-Sport model uses V8 turbo which are hard to believe...
- LC500 coupe - not yet confirmed if it is in the show. This will use the first FR chassis based on TNGA (Toyota New Global Architecture). Note: The first car that uses TNGA is the upcoming Toyota Prius which according to the magazine will appear in the upcoming Tokyo Motor Show.
- The new LX570 will appear in the show for sure - the picture is almost identical to what is on the headline of ClubLexus.
I shared this post on fb and the head of Lexus Norway commented "only as a concept". Perhaps it'll be a Detroit debut for the production vehicle then?
Well, this makes more sense, and I'm embarrassed that I didn't come to the same conclusion. As a timeline, I can see a concept, followed by the production LC in Detroit and the production LS in New York. Would follow the pattern of the past couple years:
High performance followed by core model.
- 2014: RC F in Detroit, NX in Beijing
- 2015: GS F in Detroit, RX in New York.
I need my memory jogged but if I recall the last GEN LS 460 did debut as the LS-SH at the Tokyo Auto Show fall 2005..the car then debuted as a 2006 model in Detroit...
That is what I was referring to, as these spy shots were amongst the first to creep up, when just as the LF-Sh was being unveiled in October 2005. The 2007 LS then debuted on January 8, 2006, even after being leaked 3-4 months earlier.
Looks like XenForo stupidly screwed up and deleted my response above. That is what I was referring to in regards to the LF-Sh, debuting in October 2005, after these September 2005 leaks and just as the first XF40 prototypes started being caught on camera. The 2007 LS was unveiled on January 8, 2006, but in this case we may not see this happening. I really hope I am wrong, but so far the evidence between the lines proves otherwise.I need my memory jogged but if I recall the last GEN LS 460 did debut as the LS-SH at the Tokyo Auto Show fall 2005..the car then debuted as a 2006 model in Detroit...
I think the LS has aged magnificently...Its ten years old and the overall shape is the same outside of the new spindle front end.
Yeah I'd be surprised to see a MY 2017 LS be unveiled this fall. More likely the concept like we saw the LF-NX in 2013 then production unveil in April 2014 to be sold later that year as MY 2015.
- LS500 specs point to the current RC F engine. Not bad for the likely "entry-level" engine In the N.A. market.
- LS500h specs surprisingly talk about the V8 hybrid when rumours pointed to a demise of this combination in favor of a V6 hybrid. What doesn't add up is like the CT, ES, GS, IS, NX, RX, and current LS, their monikers represent a smaller displacement engine but with the equivalent power of a similar larger displacement engine with the additional electric boost. In short, either the reported spec of a V8 hybrid is correct and Lexus is changing their naming method or the V8 is wrong and it's a V6 hybrid for the 500h moniker.
@Andyl, great find LS250t ??? Imagine the IS250's 4GR-FSE 2.5L V6 with a turbo? That would be buttery smooth AND powerful - wishful thinking on my part for repurposing a 10-year-old engine in the Lexus flagship. Still, this moniker is intriguing and raises a tonne of questions on what engine lurks underneath!
Finally, please Lexus, lets see the fuel cell in production too!