Lexus Vehicles to Go Full-Electric by 2030

[CRSKTN]

I help fund the companies that come up with the technology. What I’m telling you comes to me from EV experts currently in the process of developing commercial and consumer EVs, companies in the sustainable fuels and technologies sector and in renewables. For instance the carbon pathways and feedstock assumptions for fuels, I would need to go in and see what they’re saying is possible. Also need to see the power generation assumptions they are using.

Rationalize all you want, im telling you, in the real world the ecological impact of forcing immature/unoptimized BEVs is worse than a plan that involves PHEVs.

Surprise surprise I also know of companies which breakthrough battery chemistries considered publicly to be far from commercial.

 

[Porsche prints money]

I help fund the companies that come up with the technology. What I’m telling you comes to me from EV experts currently in the process of developing commercial and consumer EVs, companies in the sustainable fuels and technologies sector and in renewables. For instance the carbon pathways and feedstock assumptions for fuels, I would need to go in and see what they’re saying is possible. Also need to see the power generation assumptions they are using.

Rationalize all you want, im telling you, in the real world the ecological impact of forcing immature/unoptimized BEVs is worse than a plan that involves PHEVs.

Surprise surprise I also know of companies which breakthrough battery chemistries considered publicly to be far from commercial.

I see. However, I brought up the MIT data not to rationalize future technology roadmaps but to dispute the uncited 30% figure concerning current environmental impacts. The government actually has not really distinguished BEVs from PHEVs in subsidies or roadmaps. Market forces simply have favored BEVs over PHEVs in consumer demand, product pipelines & equity valuations.

Incidentally, I think China currently provides an interesting snapshot of BEV development. CATL has already commercialized alternative battery chemistries for cost & sustainability reasons, while mass-market BEVs with small batteries have turned into domestic bestsellers. I imagine more accessible charging infrastructure helps. On the other hand, China's coal use remains the elephant in the room, but the government appears to recognize the problem.

 

[ssun30]

I have never argued for the life cycle emissions of PHVs. You are putting words into my mouth. In fact any life-cycle emissions analysis is region-specific and does not apply globally, and are full of assumptions that may or may not be correct. When you look for answers that you expect you are already biased, it doesn't matter whether the sources are reputable.

I am always talking about the amount of strategically sensitive resources (Li, Co, REE) required by a full BEV society. And right now the world is nowhere close to ready for that. Breakthroughs in Na-ion, LFP and REE-free magnets should eventually make the case very clear, but not within the next five years. That's why the future is far from certain, saying otherwise is arrogant.

Buying a rare metals index-tracking fund was the best investment I've made in two decades but that's not a good thing when we want to build BEVs at 10x the current scale.

And let's not pretend BEV is about saving the environment. It's all about setting up a new industry with a LOT of money to be made. If stopping climate change really is our goal, then the right course of action is to ban (or at least heavily restrict) private car ownership.

 

[Porsche prints money]

I made the point on the lifecycle emissions of PHEVs & BEVs, not you. Still curious about your source for the 30% figure you mentioned. In the end, overall environmental impact matters, not just materials or carbon emissions.

I agree car ownership carries negative externalities, which governments will likely price in over time. In this vein, carbon pricing & congestion taxes mark small steps forward. Either way, doubting market forces sure requires some confidence.

 

[Will1991]

To me, the biggest concern about an all BEV society is longevity...

First BEV options are about 10 years old (11 years for 1st gen LEAF and 9 years for 1st Model S) and I'm curious to see how many will go beyond 12 years due to calendar aging effect on batteries, and it won't be economically feasible to get a new battery pack...

And Akio did mention this issue, about building a battery that could withstand a 20 year life cycle in some video.

I’m hoping I’m wrong, because if this is true the used BEV car market is going to have a tremendous hard time readjusting used BEV’s prices, and it’s not sustainable at all lowering the average car age in half…

 

[Porsche prints money]

I imagine the longevity question led J.B. Straubel, the former Tesla CTO, to start his battery recycling company. Supposedly, advancements like in solid-state batteries will address degradation issues. Until then, I believe the hope remains that old BEV batteries will find second lives in energy storage applications.

 

[CRSKTN]

I am always talking about the amount of strategically sensitive resources (Li, Co, REE) required by a full BEV society. And right now the world is nowhere close to ready for that. Breakthroughs in Na-ion, LFP and REE-free magnets should eventually make the case very clear, but not within the next five years. That's why the future is far from certain, saying otherwise is arrogant.

This is the point I was making.

I won’t speak to breakthroughs as some of that is material non public, but it definitely will take a number of years for a full BEV society to be implemented in a way that isn’t forced and is done sustainably.

As I’ve always said, supply chain and macroeconomic policy will determine the best solution.

That said I stand by the position that at least for now, if we want to sustainably transition, going straight to BEV vs. PHEV isn’t the way to do it.

That said, valuation multiples are blindly targeting BEV because of retail drive and institutions investors who are still working towards fully understanding the electrified mobility space. If that’s where the capital is going, BeVs will be relatively full steam ahead, depending on the market, infrastructure, and economics of alternative fuels.