Lexus Vehicles to Go Full-Electric by 2030

[internalaudit]

EV fanboys will forever hate Toyota BEVs. Some people just hate (not simply dislike) Toyota. Hating Toyota is all the sense of their life.


TMC is not a stupid company. They know what to do. Should BEV bubble collapse, Toyota can quickly get back to making ICEVs. The problem in the future will not be BEVs, but police state surveillance.

I'm not an EV fanboy and I will love Toyota/Lexus BEVs. Good enough performance and cheap recharging.

Most on the sideline or undecided and don't want to buy shoddy Tesla's will wait.

By then, the battery warranty could be as long as 15 years thanks to CARB and government pressure and Toyota will not even wince / bat an eye.

 

[OlFius]

That's why he said he will leave all options open. Should a full-EV society prove to be unsustainable they can always retract those claims.

The three major markets they talked about have good chances of establishing stable power grids for EVs. Will they be 100% clean? Probably not.

Lexus is a very small brand in Japan so even if Japan can't go full EV Lexus itself could be an EV-only brand. Same for the other minor markets.

His point was that the entire energy infrastructure in Japan is not equipped for this (as in most other countries).
This is called 'advancing insight' that they will go full EV after all, albeit 5 years later than their main Lexus regions.
Indeed, Lexus's market share won't be that big, all the more reason why I don't understand why they're still waiting until 2035.
The number of EZ Lexus' will not have such a big impact on energy supply.

And, does this mean that in the coming years they will make both EVs and Hybrids, every EV has a hybrid version, for an even smaller market?
I'm curious.

And I also understand where they want to go with Lexus, this should not be seen in isolation from Toyota.
By showing that tsunami of new (Toyota) models, they have clearly made a statement here.
Toyota and EV do not exist today, and in Europe that is becoming a big problem.
In my region they have decided that only EVs can be sold from 2029.
Here too we have doubts whether this will all be possible, but the decision has been made.

 

[internalaudit]

His point was that the entire energy infrastructure in Japan is not equipped for this (as in most other countries).
This is called 'advancing insight' that they will go full EV after all, albeit 5 years later than their main Lexus regions.
Indeed, Lexus's market share won't be that big, all the more reason why I don't understand why they're still waiting until 2035.
The number of EZ Lexus' will not have such a big impact on energy supply.

And, does this mean that in the coming years they will make both EVs and Hybrids, every EV has a hybrid version, for an even smaller market?
I'm curious.

And I also understand where they want to go with Lexus, this should not be seen in isolation from Toyota.
By showing that tsunami of new (Toyota) models, they have clearly made a statement here.
Toyota and EV do not exist today, and in Europe that is becoming a big problem.
In my region they have decided that only EVs can be sold from 2029.
Here too we have doubts whether this will all be possible, but the decision has been made.

All these ICEV, HEV, PHEV phase outs (in many OECD countries) mean they cannot sell new ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, right? It doesn't mean the used market for these vehicles will disappear overnight, right?

Gasoline stations aren't going away in 2030. Maybe earliest would be 2040.

I'd be worried only if by 2040, the infrastructure isn't there yet. Most BEV owners will charge during off-peak times anyway as that's when electricity is cheapest while businesses carry on during their normal operating hours.

Even in Ontario, Canada, there were lots of uproar after media released news we were selling to the US electricity in the evening for 1c per kWh when residential owners were paying 8-10c. There's excess electricity when businesses call it a day.

Anyone doing long distance cross country driving should know charging could be an issue anyway.

 

[spwolf]

Pretty interesting to me how Akio has been all over the board with electrification, from "it doesn't make sense" to "we're doing the entire Lexus brand in 8 years." I wonder what changed - it's pretty dramatic.

This press conference had very long QA session later on - they were asked what changed directly and their brand director made it very simple - they are seeing huge and fast shift among luxury buyer to BEVs as their prefference. So much that they pivoted whole brand around it.

Nobody should dillude themselves that this will be changed later on - it will be only faster.
In Europe, shift has been very dramatic and fast - in Germany, where plugins (BEV + PHEV) had tiny market share in 2019, this year they will end up at 30%.

This happened in year and a half, i have little doubt that Germany will be 90% BEV by 2030, and much sooner than that. EU is financing EV stations but also Toyota announced that by 2025 they will setup a lot of charging stations at their dealers, available to public:
- 1700 in USA
- 2900 in Europe
- 5000 in Japan

 

[ssun30]

Pretty interesting to me how Akio has been all over the board with electrification, from "it doesn't make sense" to "we're doing the entire Lexus brand in 8 years." I wonder what changed - it's pretty dramatic.

The "it doesn't make sense" comment was intentionally taken out of context by the media to perpetuate the "Toyota is against EV" narrative.

Akio Toyoda was criticizing the Japanese government for pushing EVs without plans to establish charging infrastructure and clean power generation, hence the "it doesn't make sense" argument. It has nothing to do with the brand's global strategy.

The 3.5M total/1M Lexus move was a calculated estimate based on plant construction plans and supplier agreements that are already in place, i.e. they already established these numbers are feasible. It's a real plan not a promise. People fail to distinguish between the two.

Sometimes I wish this company isn't that honest and join everyone in drawing the pie in the sky and saying things that are politically correct, because apparently that's how a company succeeds these days. It's all about talking and pushing up stock prices and nothing to do with real actions.

Remember when everyone including the media were talking about L4 autonomous driving by 2021 like it's inevitable? Nobody remembers these failed promises. Companies don't get punished for underdelivering on their promises these days.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Now that it looks like the god-awful (for a multitude of reasons) Build Back Better bill seems to be smothered dead, what do you guys think will happen to the rapid electrification plans that carmakers were trying to adhere to?

Toyota has played this extremely smart. They could reverse their plans with a snap of a finger as they haven't gone all-in yet. Remember, Toyoda-san implied that they'll have a diverse lineup but if there's a surefire trend towards a certain mode of propulsion, they'll push that instead. And now since there won't be any of these obsessive pro-EV policies, do you guys think this will all slow down?

 

[ssun30]

Now that it looks like the god-awful (for a multitude of reasons) Build Back Better bill seems to be smothered dead, what do you guys think will happen to the rapid electrification plans that carmakers were trying to adhere to?

Toyota has played this extremely smart. They could reverse their plans with a snap of a finger as they haven't gone all-in yet. Remember, Toyoda-san implied that they'll have a diverse lineup but if there's a surefire trend towards a certain mode of propulsion, they'll push that instead. And now since there won't be any of these obsessive pro-EV policies, do you guys think this will all slow down?

Nobody knows if the world's collective resource extraction capacity could maintain 10 million BEVs per year in the next 20 years. So it's very uncertain at this point. What's certain is some regions will completely switch while others stay the same. U.S. will be somewhere in between.

 

[CRSKTN]

Now that it looks like the god-awful (for a multitude of reasons) Build Back Better bill seems to be smothered dead,

dude… wtf

 

[mmcartalk]

Now that it looks like the god-awful (for a multitude of reasons) Build Back Better bill seems to be smothered dead,

And I agree.......for a number of reasons. Joe Manchin won't buy it....that's going to effectively kill it.

what do you guys think will happen to the rapid electrification plans that carmakers were trying to adhere to?

IMO, It was advancing far too rapidly. It will probably be scaled back now to a more sensible level....perhaps to the point where the installation of a nationwide electric-recharging network can actually keep up. A nation full of BEVs will get us nowhere if we don't have two things.....First, an adequate system of recharging stations, and Second, an electric supply-grid that will be able to handle that extra load without putting us all in the dark with power-failures.

And now since there won't be any of these obsessive pro-EV policies, do you guys think this will all slow down?

Certainly hope so. IMO, right now, it will probably be better for the country if it does slow down....although at some time in the future, with a better electric-grid and charging-system-network, the country might (?) be more prepared to convert totally to BEVs than it is now. At my age, however, I might not be around to see it.....I'm older than most of the other people in this forum.

 

[mmcartalk]

Remember when everyone including the media were talking about L4 autonomous driving by 2021 like it's inevitable? Nobody remembers these failed promises. Companies don't get punished for underdelivering on their promises these days.

No matter what kind of drivel you hear from marketers and ad-people (or the media), the truth is that completely-self-driving vehicles are simply unfeasible right now....and that's why accidents involving them are continuing to happen. There are simply too many things that cannot, at present levels of technology, be programmed into computers and GPS systems....things like temporary speed-limit restrictions in construction areas, poorly-marked/painted or confusing vehicle-lanes, poorly-marked speed bumps, police and fire-units stopping/diverting traffic around crash-sites, freshly-repaved/unmarked pavement...the list goes on and on.

 

[CRSKTN]

Certainly hope so. IMO, right now, it will probably be better for the country if it does slow down....At my age, however, I might not be around to see it.....I'm older than most of the other people in this forum.

Well thank God America has people like you around to actively work against critical progress. The post above is like the physical embodiment of entitlement. “I won’t be around for it to matter, and I’m not really all that informed, but here’s why we better not rock the boat with this “progress” thing

Also you’re not qualified to determine the potential uptake of these solutions at scale.

the amount of new technologies we are getting funded on a regular basis that addresses critical challenges like grid issues, is amazing. And I mean “we”, like I literally work funding these critical innovations.

Real change and progress doesn’t come from cowering in the face of challenges/

 

[Will1991]

This thread is about Lexus going all EV, let’s come back to the main topic and avoid politics.

 

[spwolf]

This conversation is moot, BEVs will conquer EU in next 2 years max, China few years later and USA will not be far off.

We here are just fans discussing things but TM is global brand, they can not create trends, they follow customers. Which is why Lexus is going BEV only by 2030. Those vehicles will be mostly produced in Japan, it has nothing to do with daily politics in the USA.

Luxury market is in final stages of moving to BEV, that's it. Follow or be left behind.

 

[Gecko]

Continued political talk is going to have consequences.

 

[qtb007]

This conversation is moot, BEVs will conquer EU in next 2 years max, China few years later and USA will not be far off.

We here are just fans discussing things but TM is global brand, they can not create trends, they follow customers. Which is why Lexus is going BEV only by 2030. Those vehicles will be mostly produced in Japan, it has nothing to do with daily politics in the USA.

Luxury market is in final stages of moving to BEV, that's it. Follow or be left behind.

This. BEVs shine brightest when owned by someone with considerable wealth. Level 2 charger in the garage means zero stops at gas stations for day to day driving which means more leisure time. Less time at dealerships for servicing. When they do need to road trip, they probably have a big, comfortable SUV to take the family out. Their vacations aren't loading up the family SUV and driving 9 hrs... they fly. Instant torque for passing while all the ICE vehicles are waiting on the the ECU to figure out how many gears to downshift because the CAFE requirements have everyone spinning at 1200RPM when they aren't in the throttle. The extra heft feels luxurious while ICE vehicles have to fight extra weight. Porsche could publish 200mi as the Taycan's range because caring about range is for people that frankly couldn't afford the Taycan anyway. Taycan owners will take the wife's Panamera to visit the grandkids 200 miles away.

What is going to be very interesting, IMO, is what happens to these luxury BEVs for the 2nd and 3rd owner. The heavy depreciation for most luxury models is because the maintenance costs are higher, consumables are higher, they tend to break more easily, and, honestly, who wants to pay top dollar for a generation old luxury car? Will the depreciation be heavier because the market of buyers -- who can actually charge the things at home and desires a used luxury car -- shrinks? Will level 2 chargers at rental units become the norm? It is going to be fascinating to watch when there is a divide between how the rich and the poor do something as basic as fuel their vehicles.

 

[spwolf]

Interestingly enough, what we see here in Europe, due to high cost of petrol/diesel, is that first buyers for BEVs are the ones trying to lower their transportation costs (compared to other cars).

A lot of people I met in our Tesla club constantly talk about higher electricity prices and what will happen if they reach xx/kwh. They compare costs with cheapest Dacia model modified to run on LPG/CNG (very common in Southern Europe).

What Toyota sees is that buyers in wealthy markets simply desire owning an luxury BEV and are willing to pay a lot of money into it. Honestly, once they are in BEV, they will likely not change back to petrol unless they really have a lot of charging issues.

Since Europe is fastly becoming BEV zone, with plugins (BEV+PHEV) reaching 30% of marketshare in Germany, we can see what works here and how it happened:
- EU legislation giving billions into charging infrastructure for past 5-7 years and continuing in the next 5 years
- EU legislation mandating every new apartment building have access to charging network or wont get approval
- High cost of petrol/diesel
- Local govt subsidies for purchase of BEVs
- City legislation where only BEVs are allowed to enter center of the city (used to be type of emission standard satisfied).

Things like that are moving it ahead, now everyone is building chargers everywhere, so it is perfectly fine to get BEV in most of Europe. New models are also coming like $12k (after subsidies) Dacia Spring, or Renault Twingo, which are very cheap methods of transportation, way cheaper than using similar petrol vehicle.

 

[mmcartalk]

This thread is about Lexus going all EV, let’s come back to the main topic and avoid politics.

Agreed.....but, as a moderator, would you consider discussion for the needs to help make an all-BEV fleet possible (an adequate electric grid and charging-system) to be politics? If so, then, so be it....I'll refrain.

 

[Gecko]

Agreed.....but, as a moderator, would you consider discussion for the needs to help make an all-BEV fleet possible (an adequate electric grid and charging-system) to be politics? If so, then, so be it....I'll refrain.

The associated components of a changing energy grid - and how that impacts vehicles - is perfectly fine. The detail on senators, votes, and everyone's opinions on specific bills are not needed here, especially with the extra colorful language that people like to inject into those discussions.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Nobody knows if the world's collective resource extraction capacity could maintain 10 million BEVs per year in the next 20 years. So it's very uncertain at this point. What's certain is some regions will completely switch while others stay the same. U.S. will be somewhere in between.

This is the important part - can enough lithium and other items be mined to make mass-scale electrification work? Presumably there's a finite amount of it, and demand is currently high for things that aren't BEVs.

 

[ssun30]

This is the important part - can enough lithium and other items be mined to make mass-scale electrification work? Presumably there's a finite amount of it, and demand is currently high for things that aren't BEVs.

There is enough lithium to build everyone in the world a BEV. Whether it's economically feasible to extract all that material is highly questionable and there will be bloody conflicts for that, like what has happened with oil. And producing all that lithium will be an ecological disaster.

Sodium ion batteries and REE-free motors are two crucial components of an all-EV society, then we will have the entire ocean available to build batteries. Li-ion and PM motors will likely become luxury items. The way we build EVs today is like building every ICEV with a twin-turbo V8 which while sounds cool is by no means sustainable.