I have had a look at the concept pics again. It looks almost like a production ready vehicle. More LC concept, than LS, NX or UX concept.
The thing about the LF-NX concept, was that it had to have been developed after the summer 2012 design freeze (final styling selection was in January 2012). It was entirely based on the production design. The UX Concept had to have been developed during the cubing process (final design set, not yet frozen) in the first half of 2016.
LF-FC was developed between August 2014 and September 2015. LS 200B design freeze was in Summer 2014, in which I will give the full date in my upcoming story.
Regarding this new 650B program for LQ, I am not sure where it stands right now, but based on the new trademark filings I will say that it's coming before 2021 and early 2021 at latest. Most Lexus trademark filings nowadays have a lead time of 30 months or less.
If on GA-L and requiring specialization versus a simple model addition, I can imagine it undergoing design freeze right now. Without further delays, this is a 2021 model year vehicle. The production design would have been set some time last year.
On the low end usually it's about a four-month cubing process, on the high-end about 9 months. Since I do not work for a Toyota I don't know what they require on this project. With the 950A LC (Z100) it was about 8 months of cubing, not even including LF-LC.
BTW (for those who didn't know) Cubing is typically where the final production design is set and this process taken to complete the design freeze. That stage is very important because of feasibility measures and is pretty much what I specialized in at Jaguar Land Rover.
After that, factory tooling can be ordered and depending on complexity of the design being produced, it increases the lead time needed to develop that tooling. That of course isn't the only factor in how long it takes to prepare a vehicle for production from that point.
The standard is a minimum of 18 months for complete factory tooling, which can jump up to 42 months on extremely complex designs.
This is probably why competitors cannot copy another car, once they reach that "point of no return" or they throw a lot of money away in hundreds of millions to redesign tooling. I mentioned this info, for those who may not know about this reality.
I just wished journalists would remember that truth and not post stupid articles or opinion pieces about who copied who, when it would be impossible in the realm of feasibility.
On 7 May 2018, Toyota registered the LQ trademark in the United States, under Serial Number 87909977, for “automobiles and structural parts thereof”. All signs suggest that this will be the prefix for the production version of the "flagship crossover" LF-1 Limitless Concept.
But what could the Q mean? And are there other LQ possibilities? My thoughts appear in
my latest Kaizen Factor story
Good work, in bringing this to the forefront. (thumbs up)
Why do I have a gut feeling that this car will further launch more models down the line having the Q designation...... Oh right. See BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi.
For those who didn't read the article yet or simply didn't get what I mean, I have a feeling that we're starting to get crossover coupes from Lexus. Starting from the top, then the midsize and the compact class. They're witnessing the amount of success the GLC Coupe/GLE Coupe/X6 are getting, and I am thinking that Lexus want's a piece of that lucrative market.
Interesting perspective to take, but I do wonder if there's some redundancy with having too many models?
Maybe not right away, but possibly further down the line, because of Toyota's (and their relentless apologists') convenient excuse of how they are exhausting too many of their vast resources and that is why engines have been kept too long.
LT sounds much better and it kind of fits with the current use of the T in CT. Why make a complete new letter associated with other brands and no history in Lexus.
LT sounds terribly uninspired and I always questioned the nomenclature of the CT. Plus the positioning of the two models are too different, justify the use of T to align with a former hatchback.
Can we roughly estimate when they are going to release the LQ if they register the trademark? What is their typical lead time?
I think an optimistic estimate would be production concept in 19H2, launch in 20H1, and availability in 20H2.
It is typically 24-30 months. The LS 500h trademark was filed on May 22, 2015, as the car was intended to enter production originally for a summer 2017 JDM launch and fall 2017 in export markets. Ended up being January 2018 and February 2018.
Back on February 28, 2005, LS 460, LS 460L and LS 600hL were filed. LS 460/L was released on October 20, 2006 in the United States after September 19th JDM launch and LS 600h/L in July 2007.
RC 350 trademark was filed in November 2012 the car went on sale in November 2014. RC-F was filed in January 2013. NX trademarks were filed in late October 2012, before export sales began in November 2014.
UX trademarks were first filed on February 24 2016, 33.5 months before sales began in December 2018.
GS-F trademark was filed a final time on March 15, 2013, at 32 months before release in November 2015.
GS200t was filed on September 11, 2013, at 26 months.
ES300h trademark was first filed on November 23, 2010, before sales began 22 months in September 2012.
LC trademarks were filed in late November 2014, before sales began in May 2017.
As you can see things were filed much closer in the past to launch, but now it's more projected out. Much of the time it is when marketing has committed to what they want the model name to be. In many cases of a new model it has to do with when they finally have an approved design and a set powerplant, plus feel the atmosphere is safe enough against competitive benchmarking and responsive lead time.
It took about 2.5 months for them to file a trademark for LS 500 on August 4, 2015 after the hybrid variant, likely being indecisive about what a twin-turbo 3.5 liter V6 engine should be called. This was at a time when there was a shift in nomenclature to drop "t" as a turbo suffix. It would've been called LS350t instead, rather than LS 500.
A reason why I didn't understand the GS 300 trademarks, later finding out they were replacing 200t.
I'm not sure that one can hope to expect another concept. This car is due in the second half of 2020 most likely.
... the LQ (which we believe is the LF-1) fighting the future X7. Remember, they don't have a LX/Geländewagen competitor. So the LQ would fight the X7.
The X7 will not be a competitor of the LQ (650B). That would be the new X8 model, which will be a 5-seater.
IMO, Lexus seems to have smartly avoided the "four door coupe vs sedan" trend by simply giving their sedans sexier curves and more svelte, coupe-like rooflines, e.g. new LS and ES. This makes the most sense, IMO, but I'd still love for GS to return as an ultra dramatic four door coupe that pushes the boundary even more. I think it would be cool for Gazoo/F to have their own global car, similar to how AMG has the GT. GS could be perfect for that, but I know I'm dreaming.
Anyway, it seems to me like the CUV coupe craze is still not a market worth chasing for Lexus. I don't know what volume the X4, X6, GLC Coupe and GLE Coupe sell in, but I don't think it's very much (keep in mind we're talking about conservative Lexus here). Dedicated high performance CUVs like the Levante, Cayenne and Range Rover Sport make a lot more sense to more people and have a proven place in the market vs these CUV coupes. I see LF-1 as competitor to those three - Levante, Cayenne, Range Rover Sport and the forthcoming Q8 - because Mercedes nor BMW really offer anything comparable. GLS and G class are Mercedes two SUV flagships, X7 will be BMW's and Audi will have the Q8. X6, GLE Coupe, Q6 e-tron and others will be a solid step below the LF-1. Cayenne is rather small inside, Range Rover Sport isn't necessarily RR's flagship and the Levante is Maserati's first and only SUV. LF-1 positioned as the king crossover in Lexus' CUV line, built on GA-L, with two roomy and luxurious rows and a focus on performance is a unique proposition. I think the vehicle it most directly competes with will be the Levante and TBD on the Q8. Lexus has, once again, created their own formula with the LF-1.
IMO, now that we have UX, NX, RX, RX-L and upcoming LF-1, Lexus' unibody SUV portfolio is pretty well built out. Small to large, basic to ultra luxury and performance, the bases are well covered. We'll have to see how the SUV craze progresses, but I think it would actually be smarter for Lexus to invest in a next generation BOF GX instead of chasing another unibody crossover with less cargo space than it's "non coupe" counterpart. GX has been the surprise success that nobody expected and most of what we know shows that people actually want boxy looking SUVs/CUVs that just drive better on road. Consumers like the image of tough and rugged. The only competitors who offer anything like this are the Mercedes G Class and Range Rover. UX, NX, RX, RX-L and LF-1 are all so svelte... a boxy, tough looking GX would sell exponentially better than any type of NX or RX coupe. I suspect Lexus knows this and the GX has been saved by TNGA-F and the SUV craze.
As we both know they are investing in a new GX. I am not convinced it is coming next year as a GA - F model, but a heavy remodeling of the current 150. Prototypes of a new LX should be showing up soon. If not they're being withheld and test at night.
The BMW X7 is not going to be a competitor of this model, but more likely a higher-end product named X8, which is being handled at BMW's research facility in Munich. Just a little behind the Lexus project. I don't see this being a 7 or 8 seater, which is what BMW's X7 will be. (Just saw you point out GLS C & X8 on following page in a different post)
What if GX moves to unibody and becomes something like high performance SUV on rwd GA-L? With some interesting design, they can make that coupe look and still have decent space, it is SUV afterall, which usually means higher seating position that leaves space.
GX never made a mark in areas where LX did great, where BoF matters. It only works in the US, where I dont think many care it is BoF or not.
It is not going to unibody and I have said this number of times with conviction. The investment in the GX would not be worth the trouble, if they're going to do that. We are only some months from the first spy shots of a "new GX" and it is not GA-L. It took them a while to give up on the GS, I doubt they're running to do that with the GX so soon, while sales continue to surge and not decrease.
I think we already saw the clay model of the production shape
I'm not sure that we did but anything is possible. Most likely we did see the
shape, but not so much the details.
I honestly get so tired of editing my posts, because of stupid autocorrect and voice to text screwing it up. I am very pedantic and particular about accuracy and good grammar. Please excuse me.
