I just came back from a business trip to Shenzhen, where they have a very strong luxury car culture. It's painful to see that the LF-1 takes another three years to make. Like everywhere else, there is an unstoppable move to crossovers in the full-size luxury market. While there is still a significant of S-class and even S-class Maybach sales, non-MB sedans like the LS, 7 Series LWB, A8L, and other minor players are already on their way out. GLS, X5s, and Range Rovers fill the roads, but the LX is close to non-existent because the fuel economy is just way too punishing (it's not about gas price, but very frequent refueling that cause a lot of inconvenience).
The J200 LX has a comfortable niche of its own. It is still a very profitable program. But its replacement is way past-due. It should be on a 9-year model cycle and be replaced in 2016. When they are planning on such a vehicle, global economy was already recovering so they should expect a boom in the high value market during the 2015-2020 timeframe. That's how you run a luxury company, you plan your products after economy start recovering so they are ready when the boom comes; if you wait until the economy has already recovered, you risk launching the vehicle into another recession. Mercedes knows this by heart; many of their recent strong products are launched just at the right time to ride the wave.
How Lexus failed to make a business case for a unibody full-size crossover is completely beyond me. They should know very well the BOF GX and LX will keep being niche products, and they know there is clearly a hole above the RX.
We are looking at one of the biggest business failures in their entire history, maybe even more damaging than the RC flop. Even at a very modest estimate of 30k units per year world wide, they are losing 2 billion dollars a year (that's almost 10% of their total revenue) in potential sales from 2016 to 2020 for a total of 10 billion. And it's not just about sales alone, the even more damaging part is conceding market share to other players. When the LF-1 hits in 2020, the market will be saturated by a dozen products instead of three if they did it in 2016.
If I were Lexus I would even go so far as delaying the ES for six months to have the LX successor ready before 2018. LC in 2016, LS in 2017, LX in 2018, just imagine that. Lexus would have a strong flagship trinity on the same level as or even surpassing Mercedes. But alas they are still in the LX succession crisis that they will forever regret.