Lexus August 2017 Sales Report

[mikeavelli]

As for the UX let's be honest it is going to sell no matter what. People are buying CUV's in droves, it will have Lexus features it will be a hit.

I'm 100% with Gecko that Lexus needs high power SUVs. Our loaded RX F-Sport is nice but lacks power. 300hp or so just doesn't cut it anymore especially in vehicles that weigh 4500 lbs. It needs a 400hp option and MORE for loyal Lexus owners that want to stay with the brand as well as people they want to attract. Vehicles like the X5m and Cayenne GTS are really appealing and seeing Mercedes even build the GLC 43 and 63 makes the RX seem staid again even with the aggressive styling.

The LX with 383hp or so is adequate but a 500hp option would be STELLAR!

What exactly is Lexus turning from in USA? For Europe, yes, it needs more lower spec, cheaper models like UX. For China, it needs local models, but for USA, it is competing on level basis and needs big crossover, something it does not need anywhere else.
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I can't go in detail but it sounds like at this past dealer meeting the future for Lexus is very bright with new products and engines coming and are only a part of the step up the company will showcase shortly.

 

[spwolf]

As for the UX let's be honest it is going to sell no matter what. People are buying CUV's in droves, it will have Lexus features it will be a hit.

I'm 100% with Gecko that Lexus needs high power SUVs. Our loaded RX F-Sport is nice but lacks power. 300hp or so just doesn't cut it anymore especially in vehicles that weigh 4500 lbs. It needs a 400hp option and MORE for loyal Lexus owners that want to stay with the brand as well as people they want to attract. Vehicles like the X5m and Cayenne GTS are really appealing and seeing Mercedes even build the GLC 43 and 63 makes the RX seem staid again even with the aggressive styling.

The LX with 383hp or so is adequate but a 500hp option would be STELLAR!



I can't go in detail but it sounds like at this past dealer meeting the future for Lexus is very bright with new products and engines coming and are only a part of the step up the company will showcase shortly.

Mike, any timeframes when new stuff will be introduced?

 

[ssun30]

This is first time I have heard that TMC patents prevented other companies from doing hybrids... Nissan has excellent hybrid system, and Hyundai/KIA have decent one. Honda has great hybrid system too. Ford has a good system too and later version does not use Toyota parts. Fords problem is that they focused on profitability so spending billions on new hybrid systems were off the table.

All of them are better than systems from Germans.

So it is only Europeans that do not have hybrid systems that work well, they have PR pieces that they show on TV and talk about on auto shows, but in reality, they sell peanuts. In Europe, VW sells few in few countries where there are big tax breaks, but it is very low numbers overall.

I would say is that real reason is they did not want to spend money into R&D like Toyota and that their home markets preferred diesels, up until this year. So it was more affordable for them to simply do diesels only and then just talk about hybrids, without having to make them in quantity. They show few plugins at auto shows and claim that they will get 30 models in 10 years and thats about it.

All the alternative systems are decent, but not great. HSD is, as of 2017, the most superior hybrid system available, period. HSD does four things right: reliability, efficiency, practicality, and cost (both material and labor). Other car manufacturers can get three of them right, but never all four. In China Toyota could produce the Prius drivetrain cheaper than a competitor's turbocharged 1.4/1.5 gasoline engine (with transmission). That's how simple HSD is. All other solutions are either more complex or not as efficient, and they could not do any better because TMC blocked them from doing so for two decades. In other words, all non-HSD hybrid solutions out there are work-arounds to avoid a legal conflict with TMC. Hyundai managed to outdo HSD in efficiency because of their superior battery tech, and that's where TMC is currently lacking in.

btw, did you see TMC teasing C-HR Hy Power concept? It should be latest new, more powerful 4cly hybrid system for their vehicles - likely from new Camry.

As to the Prius, they are not sandbagging anything. Dont be confused by them using ZR block. It is basically completely reworked and setting new standards in efficiency, only block is the same. It has been measured as lower consuming than 2.0tdi at steady speed highway driving (70 MPH) - while previous Prius/ZR was nowhere close - and this is without hybrid system working at all, just gas engine. This is why real life Prius and C-HR are getting awesome mpgs and much better than before, despite same engine block.

The TNGA 2ZR-FXE basically adds the ESTEC package to the original version. The Dynamic Force concept is a trio of tech packages: the Dynamic Force block, ESTEC, and D-4S. In that sense the Prius does use an older generation of engine, and that's why it almost got beaten by the new Camry Hybrid in MPG.

I remember from a 2015 interview that Toyota chose to use an older engine because they could already achieve the 55 MPG target with it, while their "next gen" (probably referring to Dynamic Force) is considered insufficient for the higher goal (60 MPG). They then decided to go with the safer approach. The obvious price they pay is leaving Prius at a meager 122hp. A Dynamic Force engine will have 40% higher specific power for the same thermodynamic efficiency. Just imagine the Prius with a 170hp drivetrain based on Dynamic Force instead of this pitiful decade-old engine, TMC missed the chance to transform the Prius here. Maybe we will see a Prius Sport or something in the future but for now it's still the most boring automobile on the planet.

I expect the C-HR Hy Power to have the "250h" powertrain. Namely a hybridized 2.0L with 2.5L level of power, possibly 170-180hp. It could be a good moment to debut their 2.0 Dynamic Force. Another possibility is the "300h" drivetrain with 230-240hp. I'm leaning towards the first one since I doubt Lexus will allow the C-HR to be more powerful than the UX.

Now the more I think about this the more I get bothered by the demise of the CT. A "treehugger's hothatch" could definitely be a hit in Europe...

 

[spwolf]

All the alternative systems are decent, but not great. HSD is, as of 2017, the most superior hybrid system available, period. HSD does four things right: reliability, efficiency, practicality, and cost (both material and labor). Other car manufacturers can get three of them right, but never all four. In China Toyota could produce the Prius drivetrain cheaper than a competitor's turbocharged 1.4/1.5 gasoline engine (with transmission). That's how simple HSD is. All other solutions are either more complex or not as efficient, and they could not do any better because TMC blocked them from doing so for two decades. In other words, all non-HSD hybrid solutions out there are work-arounds to avoid a legal conflict with TMC. Hyundai managed to outdo HSD in efficiency because of their superior battery tech, and that's where TMC is currently lacking in.



The TNGA 2ZR-FXE basically adds the ESTEC package to the original version. The Dynamic Force concept is a trio of tech packages: the Dynamic Force block, ESTEC, and D-4S. In that sense the Prius does use an older generation of engine, and that's why it almost got beaten by the new Camry Hybrid in MPG.

I remember from a 2015 interview that Toyota chose to use an older engine because they could already achieve the 55 MPG target with it, while their "next gen" (probably referring to Dynamic Force) is considered insufficient for the higher goal (60 MPG). They then decided to go with the safer approach. The obvious price they pay is leaving Prius at a meager 122hp. A Dynamic Force engine will have 40% higher specific power for the same thermodynamic efficiency. Just imagine the Prius with a 170hp drivetrain based on Dynamic Force instead of this pitiful decade-old engine, TMC missed the chance to transform the Prius here. Maybe we will see a Prius Sport or something in the future but for now it's still the most boring automobile on the planet.

I expect the C-HR Hy Power to have the "250h" powertrain. Namely a hybridized 2.0L with 2.5L level of power, possibly 170-180hp. It could be a good moment to debut their 2.0 Dynamic Force. Another possibility is the "300h" drivetrain with 230-240hp. I'm leaning towards the first one since I doubt Lexus will allow the C-HR to be more powerful than the UX.

Now the more I think about this the more I get bothered by the demise of the CT. A "treehugger's hothatch" could definitely be a hit in Europe...

i think you are grossly oversimplifying things - for instance, if Honda and Ford could build 2 motor systems, so could others, but they did not. It is their marketing decision on where to spend resources - just like Toyota decided not to do more small diesels - they have 10 billion R&D fond, they sell over 1m diesels worldwide and yet it was their decision to save money.

Also price for HSD is cheap because they make 1.5m hybrids per year and they do it in-house. Selling price of the vehicle, like in China, or in Europe now, is determined by marketing department, not the factory. This is why TME (Europe) has a loss now, even with record sales - they are subsidizing pricing of HSD versions in Europe. Real cost is high, this is why Hyundai is building simpler system and why Ford and Honda are dragging their feet with HSD-like system - it is significant. But again, Toyota makes 1.5m of them, so it is more affordable, but only for them. Same goes for diesels - in Europe, Toyota gross margins on diesels were always less than on their petrols, since they could not pass the cost to the customer, it would be too expensive.

As to the other things - for instance, many mags in Europe tested Prius vs Ioniq and Prius gets 10-20% better real life mpg. Thats despite it being larger vehicle with more room inside (it is one size or half size larger car, depending on where in the world you live). AutoExpress had them at 58 MPG vs 48 MPG (UK). Same as Camry vs Prius - real life consumption will not be close at all. But with Camry you get bigger and more powerful vehicle. Another problem is more traditional one - Hyundai/KIA hybrids traditionally had a ton of issues and it seems to appear the same for new ones - KIA Niro is riddled with multiple hybrid issues as of now.

As to the better performance per liter, obviously with D4S it gets more power but thats again a marketing decision - they have to sell these vehicles at certain prices, everything is price sensitive. Small and affordable cars get lesser version of powertrain.

But whats good is that they are willing to finally offer multiple versions of hybrid powertrains for same vehicles. Just like Rav4 previusly having 2-3 petrol + 2-3 diesel versions in Europe, why not have several HSD versions.

My guess will be that it will be Camry Hybrid powertrain - easy >200hp for them and good performance from low revs. It would be awesome for C-HR as higher power versions. Rav4 used to have 1.8l, 2.0l petrols and 2.0 150hp, 2.0l 177hp diesels.

 

[krew]

What exactly is Lexus turning from in USA? For Europe, yes, it needs more lower spec, cheaper models like UX. For China, it needs local models, but for USA, it is competing on level basis and needs big crossover, something it does not need anywhere else.

Turning point in that if the UX will set the tone for the next-generation of entry-level Lexus vehicles. It's a perfect platform for a new line of engines, and that looks to be the case based on the trademarks filed last year:

• UX 200: The best guess for the 200 designation is the four-cylinder 2.0L 6AR-FSE engine currently used in the Chinese Camry and ES 200, rated at 165 horsepower.
• UX 250: Likely a 2.5L four-cylinder engine, perhaps the 178 horsepower 2AR-FE used in multiple Toyota applications.
• UX 250h: The 250h designation is a mystery, as the 2.5L 2AR-FXE hybrid engine is classified as a 300h in the Lexus lineup. The 2.4L 2AZ-FXE engine found in the HS 250h is an option, but seems unlikely. We could be looking at a new hybrid engine with this trademark.

 

[spwolf]

Turning point in that if the UX will set the tone for the next-generation of entry-level Lexus vehicles. It's a perfect platform for a new line of engines, and that looks to be the case based on the trademarks filed last year:

by now we know that 250 and 250h will be from new Camry... does anyone know engine codes for those? Toyota spec sheets are empty on their online sites right now.

I thought you were talking about sales btw, while for me personally new or old is very important from tech side, if we just look at what MB sells (and their sales are rocketing worldwide), i dont think it matters that much for overall sales.

 

[ssun30]

by now we know that 250 and 250h will be from new Camry... does anyone know engine codes for those? Toyota spec sheets are empty on their online sites right now.

I thought you were talking about sales btw, while for me personally new or old is very important from tech side, if we just look at what MB sells (and their sales are rocketing worldwide), i dont think it matters that much for overall sales.

A25A-FKS/FXS. The Camry Hybrid has a "300h". The 250h will be a new drivetrain.

 

[spwolf]

A25A-FKS/FXS. The Camry Hybrid has a "300h". The 250h will be a new drivetrain.

how sure are you? With 208hp vs 225hp in IS/GS, it seems perfect for 250h/300h.

In other news, Toyota announced today that in future (early 2018), they will offer two hybrid powertrains - one is fuel efficient like today, and another is more powerful version.

The concept has been designed around the use of a new hybrid powertrain that offers more power and performance than the 122 DIN hp system featured in the current production Toyota C-HR. This reflects a significant and strategic future development of Toyota’s world-leading technology that will higher performance hybrid options being made available in all its core models. More details regarding this expansion of hybrid will be revealed early in 2018.

Core models means Yaris, Auris, Verso, Avensis, C-HR and Rav4 in Europe (and Aygo)...

 

[ssun30]

how sure are you? With 208hp vs 225hp in IS/GS, it seems perfect for 250h/300h.

Because today Lexus has two 300h drivetrains for longitudinal and transverse platforms respectively. One has 220hp on IS/GS and the other has 200 on ES/194 on NX. A 208hp drivetrain should be called "300h" seeing how a 354hp one is called "500h" (i.e. equivalent to a NA engine with 70hp/L). A "250h" will have 170-180hp which should be possible with a 2.0. The full-powered A25A-FKS may be combined with 500h's high power battery pack to make a "350h" (250-260hp) for bigger vehicles but that's just my guess. It fully depends on whether that battery could be mass produced or reserved for a few high performance vehicles.

UX with 170-180hp 250h
NX with 208hp 300h
ES/RX/RX-L/IS/"GC" with 250-260hp 350h
RX/RX-L with an unknown 450h (e-AWD only)
IS/"GC"/LS/LC with 354hp 500h
Possible high powered successor to LS600h.

That's my prediction for Lexus' new hybrid line-up before 2020.

 

[Trexus]

In other news, Toyota announced today that in future (early 2018), they will offer two hybrid powertrains - one is fuel efficient like today, and another is more powerful version.

Currently there is a:

GS 300h = Fuel efficient
GS 450h = Powerful version
GS 500h = Even more powerful version (Future)

Lexus should bring the IS hybrid and RC hybrid to North America as well:

IS 300h = Fuel efficient
IS 450h = Powerful version

RC 300h = Fuel efficient
RC 450h = Powerful version

Keep the CT and expand:

CT 200h = Fuel efficient
CT 300h = Powerful version

 

[spwolf]

Currently there is a:

GS 300h = Fuel efficient
GS 450h = Powerful version
GS 500h = Even more powerful version (Future)

Lexus should bring the IS hybrid and RC hybrid to North America as well:

IS 300h = Fuel efficient
IS 450h = Powerful version

RC 300h = Fuel efficient
RC 450h = Powerful version

Keep the CT and expand:

CT 200h = Fuel efficient
CT 300h = Powerful version

Indeed. I wonder if thats how it will play out for Lexus as well. At least with new models coming out. Right now I dont think 300h is viable for current RX, but maybe little bit less weight and little bit more performance will go long way?

Now thats for Europe - where there is 50% hybrid sales for Toyotas and 93% for Lexus (without Russia, thats mostly just petrols and is significant part of European sales). They would significantly expand RX sales with RX300h, but again it needs more power than now in NX.

For Toyota models, I wonder what will happen - what will be upgrade for Auris, Verso and C-HR. 2.5l from Camry or? new 2.0l? Maybe not just same engine but maybe more battery power? More battery power would enable 2.0l to be at same performance as 2.5l hybrid. But will it matter?

Quite interesting times.

 

[spwolf]

Because today Lexus has two 300h drivetrains for longitudinal and transverse platforms respectively. One has 220hp on IS/GS and the other has 200 on ES/194 on NX. A 208hp drivetrain should be called "300h" seeing how a 354hp one is called "500h" (i.e. equivalent to a NA engine with 70hp/L). A "250h" will have 170-180hp which should be possible with a 2.0. The full-powered A25A-FKS may be combined with 500h's high power battery pack to make a "350h" (250-260hp) for bigger vehicles but that's just my guess. It fully depends on whether that battery could be mass produced or reserved for a few high performance vehicles.

UX with 170-180hp 250h
NX with 208hp 300h
ES/RX/RX-L/IS/"GC" with 250-260hp 350h
RX/RX-L with an unknown 450h (e-AWD only)
IS/"GC"/LS/LC with 354hp 500h
Possible high powered successor to LS600h.

That's my prediction for Lexus' new hybrid line-up before 2020.

‚
I wonder though.

ES does not need more than ES300h as base... Same goes for Rav4 - what will be upgrade package? Maybe new 2.0l as standard 250h variant and 300h variant from Camry?

Or would it work like that at all? Maybe they will use bigger battery with more output to get performance out? New Nissan e-power hybrids are simpler but they use battery to power wheels directly and supposedly that gives out better feel with more power available.

 

[ssun30]

‚
I wonder though.

ES does not need more than ES300h as base... Same goes for Rav4 - what will be upgrade package? Maybe new 2.0l as standard 250h variant and 300h variant from Camry?

Or would it work like that at all? Maybe they will use bigger battery with more output to get performance out? New Nissan e-power hybrids are simpler but they use battery to power wheels directly and supposedly that gives out better feel with more power available.

The base ES model for Asian market will be the ES250 using the Camry engine,
possibly an ES250h for China only.
The base ES model in the NA market is actually the 350. Replacing it with a hybrid helps a lot with CAFE. Then the 350 will be replaced by a proper AWD performance sedan i.e. the 3.0 turbo “ES400”. Maybe a 2.0T “ES300” for those with smaller budget.

In summary
ES250/250h/350h for Asia/Europe.
ES300/350h/400AWD for NA.

 

[spwolf]

The base ES model for Asian market will be the ES250 using the Camry engine,
possibly an ES250h for China only.
The base ES model in the NA market is actually the 350. Replacing it with a hybrid helps a lot with CAFE. Then the 350 will be replaced by a proper AWD performance sedan i.e. the 3.0 turbo “ES400”. Maybe a 2.0T “ES300” for those with smaller budget.

In summary
ES250/250h/350h for Asia/Europe.
ES300/350h/400AWD for NA.

I would be surprised if it gets more hp than now... also no need for so many hybrid variations - they dont sell in the USA. So I see ES250 and ES300h. And then ES200t, ES300h, ES350.

Europe and Toyota is different because majority of sales are hybrids and there are over 1m of sales for TMC in Europe alone.

 

[ssun30]

I would be surprised if it gets more hp than now... also no need for so many hybrid variations - they dont sell in the USA. So I see ES250 and ES300h. And then ES200t, ES300h, ES350.

Europe and Toyota is different because majority of sales are hybrids and there are over 1m of sales for TMC in Europe alone.

That's just two hybrid variations...a low-powered 250h for budget-aware Asian/eco-aware European market and a high-powered 350h for NA as a 350 replacement while the current gas-only 350 upgrades to a 400.

 

[Gecko]

I assume that the base engine for ES will be a new 2.0T I4... probably an all-new version from the Dynamic Force family.

I can see something like ES 300, ES 300h and ES350 for USA. The only deviation I can imagine would be if ES debuts a new 3.0L turbo V6, maybe its named ES 400 or something.

 

[spwolf]

That's just two hybrid variations...a low-powered 250h for budget-aware Asian/eco-aware European market and a high-powered 350h for NA as a 350 replacement while the current gas-only 350 upgrades to a 400.

i dont see why would they have ES250h, i doubt its price is very much different to ES300h's, and they dont sell enough of these hybrids... now I think if they actually do offer it in Europe, it actually might get faster than ES300h variant, that would make more sense.

 

[ssun30]

i dont see why would they have ES250h, i doubt its price is very much different to ES300h's, and they dont sell enough of these hybrids... now I think if they actually do offer it in Europe, it actually might get faster than ES300h variant, that would make more sense.

The 6AR-FSE is more expensive to build than the 2AR-FE yet the ES200 is priced much lower than the ES250 anyway. It's not about whether they can sell that many hybrids. They will be forced to sell hybrids and maybe hybrids only in Asia and Europe to meet CAFE regulations. The standard for 2020 in these regions is around 5L/100km (47MPG) which is simply impossible without a hybrid-heavy lineup. Having a 250h and 350h offers more options than a monotone 300h, just like how they offer three gas-only variants now. It's just that the gas-only options will gradually condense into one or two, while the hybrid options expand beyond just one.

 

[spwolf]

It's not about whether they can sell that many hybrids. They will be forced to sell hybrids in Asia and Europe to meet CAFE regulations. The standard for 2020 in these regions is around 5L/100km (47MPG) which is simply impossible without a hybrid-heavy lineup. Having a 250h and 350h offers more options than a monotone 300h.
And don't forget EPA will enforce an even harsher 55MPG by 2025 so Lexus had better start working on a full-hybrid ES lineup ASAP.

it does not work that way... first 250h wouldnt get much better if any better mpg. While sales of hybrid versions are low due to the markets it sells best at.

As to CO2 standards in 2012 for Europe, Toyota will easily pass them, I think they satisfy the rules even this year. Not even that, forget the good PR from EU, we have shown to delay new rules constantly as long as it benefits local manufacturers.

Same goes for USA, Toyota is largest beneficiary of CAFE standards in the USA.

 

[Tragic Bronson]

Remember How Silly You Thought It Was When Lexus Predicted 400 LC Sales Per Month in America?
By Timothy Cain on September 20, 2017


Lexus has high hopes for the LC, we told you in March. Not yet on sale at that point, Lexus was entirely transparent about the company’s belief that it could sell 400 copies of the LC500 and hybridized LC500h every month in America.

“That’s a big number,” I wrote six months ago, expressing a measure of doubt. But Lexus was insistent, based on “tremendous response to the LF-LC show car” from 2012, a successful carryover to production of concept car design, and “positive feedback in customer clinics.”

Doubt was expressed by most commenters, as well. “Good luck with that,” Master Baiter told Lexus. “Lexus, you need help,” said thats one fast cat. “Setting a goal like this is just setting Lexus up for the unnecessary perception of failure,” dal20402 wrote. “Dumb move.” badhobz said, “I don’t think it’ll do that well.”

It’s been half a year. It’s time for the Lexus LC to stand up and be counted.

To be fair, a number of B&B members believed Lexus was right about the fact that the LC500 and LC500h would outsell a wide variety of high-end coupes. At 400/month, Lexus’ $92,995-$106,295 coupe would prove more popular than the Nissan GT-R and Mercedes-Benz SL and BMW 6 Series, but also more affordable cars such as the Jaguar F-Type, Porsche Cayman, and Audi TT. “I think they can move 400/mo,” wrote Lightspeed. “This might have a chance,” dukeisduke said at the time.

Lexus launched the LC by meeting its target. 419 copies of the Lexus LC500 and LC500h were sold in May; another 423 in June. Even after LC sales slowed in July and August, Lexus is still averaging 362 LC sales per month, within 10 percent of the company’s goal.

Of course, it’s early. The fact that Lexus is already reporting decreased LC sales is in keeping with the broad sporty car sector in which it competes. You might recall, for instance, the Scion FR-S — now known as the Toyota 86 — which launched with great fanfare and produced 2,684 sales in its first full month on the market, June 2012.

Never once since has Toyota reported more than 2,000 FR-S/86 sales in the U.S. a single month. A year after its launch, FR-S sales were down 11 percent. Toyota now reports 622 86 sales per month, a 59-percent cut compared with 2013.

The same type of situation can be seen at the higher end, as well. The 2013 model year was the first for the current R231 iteration of the Mercedes-Benz SL-Class. Sales rose to a seven-year high of 7,007 units that year, yet U.S. SL volume is now less than half that strong.

This is why one member of the TTAC B&B, stingray65, suggested Lexus would achieve the target, “but probably only for the first 4-6 months until all the ‘first on the block’ have one.”

Nevertheless, even at August’s low point of 291 sales, the Lexus LC still managed to outsell the Jaguar F-Type and Audi TT, not to mention more comparably priced cars such as the SL-Class, 6 Series, Maserati GranTurismo, and the Nissan GT-R. Competing with the Porsche 911? That’s a whole ‘nuther ball game Lexus never claimed to play.