You've just proposed way too many high-powered gas-only trims and F-cars than what's necessary. That's why big corporations like TMC don't take enthusiasts too seriously because they just think performance cars are as simple as slapping a bigger engine and profit, except they aren't.
Just because MB offers an AMG in every SUV line it sells doesn't mean Lexus needs to follow with F-SUVs everywhere, maybe except at the very top. High performance models generally require the base models to be overengineered to accomodate the larger drivetrain and to have enough body rigidity to be drivable. Remember the UX/NX/RX are pretty much upscaled Toyotas so the platform has to be low-cost and low-labor. Lexus is already struggling to keep the NX and RX in stock, making them shrink in volume to be "F-ready" is out of the question.
Let's start with the UX; we all know what will end up in it given the registered trademarks: a 200, a 250, and a 250h. The UX by no means needs 8AR-level of power given how small it is. The 2.5 Dynamic Force is already sufficient to give it hothatch-like acceleration. An overwhelming amount of UX sold world wide will be the 200 (in Asia), followed by the 250h (in Europe). The 250 is just there to appease a few Americans who absolutely need to do highway pulls.
The NX doesn't need a V6 because a 3.0 won't be more powerful than the 2.0T, a 3.5 is too big for many markets, and a 3.0TT is not compact enough. It needs more hybrid options, PHEV, BEV, FCEV, or whatever clean technology TMC could throw at it. However, given just how important NX has become, a half serious F effort could be a possibility, but one that people will hate because at the end of the day it's a super RAV4.
The RX/RX-L needs a 2.0T, a budget hybrid, and an upscale hybrid. The second one is an obvious void in the current RX's lineup.
The "GA-L" GX is the best candidate for a true upscale and performance-oriented SUV, fully ditching its offroad focus to go head on against the X5/6. GX-F is the high performance SUV that makes the most amount of sense. The LX is already ridiculously expensive so an F/"uberoffroad" model won't be impossible either.
You see, Lexus could keep its gas-devouring dinosaurs we all love (GS-F/LC500/LX570 etc.) alive because their mass market hybrids are vegetarian MPG champions. Who would love to see the naturally aspirated wonder in the LC500 go away? It's there because of CT200h/ES300h/NX300h feeding all the gas it wants. With ridiculously strict CAFE regulations being introduced in 2020s around the world it makes obvious sense for Lexus to no longer offer high powered gas-only mass market vehicles and commit to hybrids.
Alfa Romeo Stelvio
Alfa Romeo Stelvio Quadrifoglio (coming)
Audi SQ3
Audi SQ5
Audi SQ7
BMW X3 M (coming)
BMW X4 M40i
BMW X5 M
BMW X6 M
Jaguar F-Pace R-Sport
Jaguar F-Pace SVR (coming)
Maserati Levante
Maserati Levante S
Mercedes- AMG GLC43
Mercedes- AMG GLC63
Mercedes- AMG GLC43 Coupe
Mercedes- AMG GLE43
Mercedes- AMG GLE63
Mercedes- AMG GLE63 S
Mercedes- AMG GLE43 Coupe
Mercedes- AMG GLE63 S Coupe
Mercedes- AMG GLS63
Mercedes-AMG G63
Mercedes-AMG G65
Porsche Macan
Morsche Macan S
Porsche Macan GTS
Porsche Macan Turbo
Porsche Macan Turbo w/ Performance Package
Porsche Cayenne
Porsche Cayenne S
Porsche Cayenne GTS
Porsche Cayenne Turbo
Porsche Cayenne Turbo S
Range Rover Sport Supercharged
Range Rover Sport SVR
Range Rover Velar
Range Rover Velar SVR (coming)
Tell me again how Lexus doesn't need high-power, performance SUVs?
While I greatly appreciate your more international view, I completely disagree with your viewpoint. It isn't just Mercedes making high powered SUVs - it's everyone. And if Lexus decides to not follow suit, they'll simply be seen as a second or third tier brand - even moreso as consumer buying tastes continue to shift towards SUVs.
The people who bought GS Fs and RC Fs... what's Lexus going to do when those folks decide they too want an SUV? An RX F Sport? LOL.
Lexus introduced the first unibody luxury SUV 20 years ago and it has yet to break 310 horsepower. Jaguar, brand new to the game, is about to pick up the book and throw it in Lexus' face with a V8 F-Pace SVR.
Does anyone need AMG, M, V, RS, Black Series, whatever? No, they don't. But guess what - they do sell to a select group of people, and even for many of the folks who can't afford them, they create a halo effect for the model line and the brand as a whole. That's only a good thing.
The NX absolutely needs a V6 - the 2.0T is not nearly as refined or powerful as a small displacement V6, nor is it even really efficient. That power plant in the NX is a lose-lose. Audi, Mercedes and BMW all offer a 320+hp version of their compact ute and the NX is literally just a "super Rav4" as you put it.
Put simply, Lexus needs to get out of the vacuum they've spent 15 years in, and put an SUV or two on GA-L before it's too late. Building "super Rav4s" and "super Highlanders" is great for people for who are cross shopping against has-been brands like Acura, Buick and Infiniti. If Lexus wants the "share of mind" from the person shopping for an X5, GLS, Cayenne, Macan or any of the other names I mentioned above, they need a complete strategy shift with more models, more diversification and more packages.
If the ES does indeed replace the GS as Lexus' defacto midsize sedan, they're going to be fighting the same battle. I bet if you put premium in the 2GR-FKS from the Camry, it might bump you up to 306hp? 306hp ES vs 600hp M5 and E63. Sorry, but I'm laughing.
If TNGA is really as strong and flexible as Toyota says, they need to come up with an
ACTIVE All-Wheel-Drive system that will split torque between the front and rear wheels on a continual basis, vs. something like DTC AWD that requires a loss of traction or reverts to FWD as the default. A 360HP NX on TNGA with active AWD would be perfect for NX F. Stroke the motor a little more for 450hp in an RX F with the same AWD system. It can work - Audi does it and has for years. That's a cheap and easy solution vs. building a performance ute from the ground up as RWD (which, as you know, is also much more expensive.)
Your point about more hybrid models is great and I'd love to see them combine plug in, hybrid and ICE for some real performance monsters that also get 35+MPG... but that's a long shot as Lexus lost their flag-bearing position with hybrids several years ago. We need a multi-stage 4cyl hybrid, plug-in, multi-stage V8 hybrid, etc. I don't really care where the power/performance gains come from as long as they materialize.
The next two years will be "make it or break it" for Lexus' "good enough" strategy with dressing up Toyota cars. LC and LS are steps in the right direction - but now its time to fill out the rest of the portfolio from the top-down. Lexus is either about about to step up and join BMW, Mercedes and Audi, or fall backwards into the same ranks as Cadillac, Acura and Infiniti. There's no more in-between - the Germans have completely raised the stakes on what it means to be and build a luxury car.
