Can you see Lexus releasing a new CT in 2019?
Overall, CT's future is in flux. The pivotal question is whether crossover SUVs will ultimately replace hatchbacks or if the two can coexist. There is no pat, one-size-fits-all answer.
To name but a couple of recent mass-market examples: Mazda figured that its subcompact B-segment CX-3 crossover could coexist with its hatchback counterpart, the Mazda2. The latest generation of the Mazda2 went as far as receiving U.S. EPA fuel economy certification and making its North American debut at the 2015 Montreal Auto Show. Yet, at the last minute, the Mazda2 was cancelled for the U.S. and Canada, while remaining on sale in other markets (including Mexico).
In another example, the 5-door hatchback version of the latest (5th-gen) Hyundai Accent will not be sold in the U.S. (the upcoming C-segment Kona crossover SUV will replace it), but both Accent 5-door and Kona will be sold side-by-side in Canada and other markets.
I think that Lexus will keep a sharp eye on what sort of reception UX gets and, above all, how UX affects CT sales in Europe and Japan. That will drive their decision on whether UX and CT can coexist or if UX cannibalizes CT sales to the point that renewing the latter is no longer viable.
Although the pundits predict a 2019 calendar year/2020 model year launch for the 2nd-gen CT, the 2018 second facelift probably buys Lexus another year beyond that to decide whether or not to launch a 2CT hatchback.
How interesting is the idea of a four-door CT sedan?
Paradoxically, there is a rising trend in the U.S. towards luxury C-segment, FWD-centric 4-door sedans and coupes. The Audi A3 sedan and Mercedes CLA 4-door coupe have done reasonably well. There is also talk of a Mercedes A-Class sedan and BMW 1-Series sedan created primarily for China also making their way here. Perhaps A4 and CLA sales have flattened recently due to the crossover SUV juggernaut (I haven't really checked their sales numbers lately).
If nothing else, this would serve as a
de facto replacement for the moribund HS sedan in Japan as well (a model whose days are believed to be numbered).
And how much power do you think the next-generation CT needs?
Me being of the Tim Allen "more power!" school, the only CT I'd consider is a CT F all-wheel-drive hatchback powered by, at a minimum, the 8AR-FTS 2-liter, 4-cylinder, 235 hp turbo engine. Even better if it has a proper 6-speed clutch-pedal manual. Better yet if it has an even more powerful derivative of the new Camry's A25A 2.5-liter Dynamic Force engine. Alas, I know that's all a pipe dream that's unlikely to be produced in this day and age and automotive climate.