The next episode of the Lexus Enthusiast Podcast is going live today and Kevin and I talk a lot about the new ES, and some of these very points are made.
I think it's important to remember Lexus' announcement a few years ago that they were going to focus on vehicles and segments where they are successful, and not bother to compete in segments where they struggle. That is a smart business decision, and GS/ES is a good example of this. 5 Series and E Class are dominant in the midsize luxury sedan class, so the only way for Lexus to be in that segment is to be different.
Let's take off our enthusiast hats and consider this as a business case. ES is based on the midsize Toyota architecture and it can be 80% of what you get in an E Class or 5 Series for 40% less money: wood, leather, quality, luxury buying experience, brand prestige, safety tech, NVH, smoothness, etc. The people who really want RWD and are going to drive it as such are already going to buy German. That leaves the rest of the class wide open for the ES and A6, which we already see working in Lexus' favor.
ES is a value play, but it's also well executed and it works, and attracts a different type of consumer in that segment. As much as I love the GS and lament it's demise, Lexus keeping the ES true to form and iterating on that winning formula is the smartest thing they can do. If we come to a point where it doesn't work, I'm sure they will re-evaluate, but being based on a Toyota platform and sharing almost all of its parts with the Avalon and Camry means that Lexus can continue to exist in this segment with little risk -- even while it declines. It's brilliant.