46th (2019) Tokyo Motor Show

flexus

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It is now exactly six month to go and I thought it deserves an own
thread. 2019 Tokyo Motor Show's slogan is Open Future.
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Rumors that I have heard and read we could see unveiling of next generation Sienta, Mirai and Aqua (Prius C).
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Hope we can get more exciting news!
 

Joaquin Ruhi

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Color me skeptical on the 3rd-gen Sienta debuting at the 2019 Tokyo Motor Show, given that the current 2nd-gen debuted in July 2015 and received its mid-life refresh in September 2018. The Tokyo 2021 show - or a few months before that - is more like it.

On the other hand, the current Prius c / Aqua is overdue for a successor, and the 2019 Tokyo show is the most logical venue for its debut. And don't forget the way-overdue successor to the current 4th-gen Vitz/Euro Yaris. My best guess is that it'll make its world debut at the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show in September as the first TNGA-B Toyota, followed by its Japanese version at Tokyo roughly a month later. Rumors suggest that the Vitz badging in Japan will be dropped in favor of the international Yaris.

And Mirai? Given the current model's ultra-limited production and November 2014 public unveiling, I think a successor's October 2019 debut at the Tokyo show is also a bit too soon. I'd be surprised if we saw it any sooner than on the sidelines of the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics. A concept predictor? That's far more likely. That MagX rendering looks way better than the current Mirai, but, then again, almost anything does.
 

flexus

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New info from bestcarweb.jp.

Models that very likely are announced at TMS:
New Alphard and Vellfire

Power unit will be highly popular 300h and top range V6 is changing to hybrid. No mentioning if it's one from Crown or LS. Question is: are we going to see both Alphard and Vellfire? Toyota has previously announced it will cut by half of its models in Japan as it merges dealerships to one. Both vehicles are very popular and sales scheme in China offering different models on Dongfeng and GAC sales channels. PHEV variant is also considered. Very good option for China.

New Estima

Estima has been Toyota's flagship technology showcase flagship. Development of new Estima is confirmed and we could expect futuristic design and powertrain. Addition to conventional 2.5l hybrid FCEV variant is added. I won't be surprised if there is some degree of self-driving (better than Tesla aka for city use) as I have with my own eyes witnessed Estima being used for self-driving mule in Japan.
bestcar's guess for specs:
length:4850mm
width:1880mm
height:1660mm
wheelbase:2950mm
weight:1900kg
powerunit:FCV
motor output:over 154ps
motor torque:34.2kgm
price:5m~6m ¥ (about 40k-50k €)

New Mirai

Nothing new. Crown based TNGA RWD model. FC stack placed under rear seats and centre tunnel. Bestcar has heard some rumors that Mirai would be LS FCV's sister model. That means more luxury and range (almost 1000km).

Next one is definitely my favourite. A Toyota legend like LC, Crown, Hilux: New HiAce.

Different than February announced international HiAce. JDM version moves from over cab to semi bonnet style for better safety. Dimensions won't change dramatically as it needs to fit in 4 number commercial category. Engines will be 2.0l petrol and 2.4l diesel turbo.

EXTRA: 860B 2nd gen Toyota 86/Subaru BRZ


It gets new engine FA24 which is 2.4l NA and expected power is 230ps/24.5kgm. Price from 3m ¥.
 

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Quite a lineup.

Am I reading correctly that there is a new Toyota Alphard but they just based the brand new Lexus LM on the old one...?
 

flexus

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Turning Mirai to RWD with more power is properly doing FCEV's promotion...

I'm a bit skeptical about 2nd gen 86... Even more with more displacement... Without any test-mule or prototype?
I failed to mention that 86 is 2021 model.
Quite a lineup.

Am I reading correctly that there is a new Toyota Alphard but they just based the brand new Lexus LM on the old one...?
I was going to post about this but I didn't. So officially LM is meant to China and selected Asian market. Basically it means that Japan won't get it. Still there has been lot of interest towards the vehicle even Lexus Japan did not announce anything in Japan. Customers with GS and LS are calling dealers about LM in increasing number. One dealer in Tokyo area speculated that LM300h would surpass LS and GS sales. At launch it won't come to Japan. 2021 earliest to not to disrupt new Alvell sales. So it is older gen if you compare to new Alvell. Maybe it has short lifecycle and get refresh along Alvell PHV.
 

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New info from bestcarweb.jp.
Models that very likely are announced at TMS:

New Alphard and Vellfire
Power unit will be highly popular 300h and top range V6 is changing to hybrid. No mentioning if it's one from Crown or LS. Question is: are we going to see both Alphard and Vellfire? Toyota has previously announced it will cut by half of its models in Japan as it merges dealerships to one. Both vehicles are very popular and sales scheme in China offering different models on Dongfeng and GAC sales channels.
Am I reading correctly that there is a new Toyota Alphard but they just based the brand new Lexus LM on the old one...?
As is the case with the 3rd-gen Toyota Sienta rumor at the top of this thread, the 2019 Tokyo show is too soon for the launch of the 4th-gen Alphard and Vellfire. The current 3rd-gen versions were launched in January 2015, and received their mid-life facelift (including FE-to-FKS upgrade of the 3.5-liter V6) on January 2018. Given their historical 6-to-7-year cycles, next Alphard and Vellfire should launch no sooner than January 2021, with January 2022 a distinct possibility.

I'd guess that the just-launched Lexus LM will follow the precedent of the original Lexus ES, where the 2nd-gen Toyota Camry Prominent / Vista was hastily pressed into Lexus service as a 2-year stopgap until a more properly differentiated 2nd-gen Lexus ES could be produced.

The "top range" V6 hybrid powertrain is the 3.5-liter 8GR-FXS that is shared by Lexus' 5LS 500h, LC 500h and high-end variants of 15th-gen Toyota Crown. I am unaware of any notable differences between the three applications. Notably, however, the 8GR-FXS has only been used on the GA-L and TNGA-N RWD/longitudinal engine platforms, whereas new Alphard/Vellfire/Lexus LM would presumably be built on the TNGA-K FWD/transverse engine platform. With the current transverse V6 hybrid (2GR-FXE) derided for its lackluster fuel economy and already discontinued from the upcoming 4th-gen Toyota Highlander, it'll be interesting to see what happens with hybrid versions of the upcoming heaviest TNGA-K vehicles (5th-gen Lexus RX and 4th-gen minivans Sienna, Alphard and Vellfire, plus Lexus 2LM).

Flexus (or BestCarWeb?) accurately touched upon a very basic conflict within Toyota: a desire to consolidate its Byzantine four separate Japanese dealer networks into one (thus eliminating redundant variations and nameplates of the same basic model) versus the need for two separate variants of each major popular model to feed rival GAC and FAW Toyota joint ventures in China. This is most evident with the latest Toyota Corolla sedan, which defies the "one Corolla" consolidation of the hatchback model with separate "Prestige" (Chinese FAW and European Corolla) and "Sporty" (Japan, North America and Chinese GAC Levin) sedans. Thus, I'd agree that China will retain separate Alphard (for GAC) and Vellfire (for FAW) vans.

New Estima
Estima has been Toyota's flagship technology showcase flagship. Development of new Estima is confirmed and we could expect futuristic design and powertrain. Addition to conventional 2.5l hybrid FCEV variant is added. I won't be surprised if there is some degree of self-driving (better than Tesla aka for city use) as I have with my own eyes witnessed Estima being used for self-driving mule in Japan.
That sounds like a grandiose, even off-base description for a "tweener" minivan (larger than Noah/Voxy/Esquire but smaller than Alphard/Vellfire) that has been around in its present form since 2006 with just a single facelift. So, yes, a new Estima is as overdue as a new Yaris, Tundra or 4Runner. Or might Toyota simply let it die without a successor?

New Mirai
Crown based TNGA RWD model. FC stack placed under rear seats and centre tunnel. Bestcar has heard some rumors that Mirai would be LS FCV's sister model.
Interesting if true. Moving Mirai from its current FWD architecture to a variation of the latest Crown's TNGA-N would make a closely-related GA-L Lexus LS FCV a more viable proposition. Bear in mind, however, that some rumors suggest that the LS FCV has been cancelled.

New HiAce.
Different than February announced international HiAce. JDM version moves from over cab to semi-bonnet style for better safety. Dimensions won't change dramatically as it needs to fit in 4 number commercial category.Engines will be 2.0l petrol and 2.4l diesel turbo.
Indeed, the "international" 6th-gen H300 HiAce was announced on February 2019 in the Philippines. The press release notes that "the current Hiace model will continue to be sold in Japan as-is, due to the different local market environment." Thus, a JDM 6th-gen HiAce debut is certainly a viable proposition for the 2019 Tokyo Motor Show. Those rumored 2.0l petrol and 2.4l diesel turbo powertrains are tiny, though, compared to the international HiAce's 1GD (2.8-liter turbo diesel) or 7GR (3.5-liter gasoline) options.

EXTRA: 860B 2nd gen Toyota 86/Subaru BRZ
It gets new engine FA24 which is 2.4l NA and expected power is 230ps/24.5kgm. Price from 3m ¥.
I'm a bit skeptical about 2nd-gen 86... Even more with more displacement... Without any test-mule or prototype?
I failed to mention that 86 is 2021 model.
Agreed. 2021 model year at the earliest sounds more viable for this.
 

flexus

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Little birds sang that Alvell receives big minorchange in late fall (TMS). New interior and exterior looks and 2WD setting for the hybrid model. Model change is likely in early spring 2022.
 

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Flexus (or BestCarWeb?) accurately touched upon a very basic conflict within Toyota: a desire to consolidate its Byzantine four separate Japanese dealer networks into one (thus eliminating redundant variations and nameplates of the same basic model) versus the need for two separate variants of each major popular model to feed rival GAC and FAW Toyota joint ventures in China. This is most evident with the latest Toyota Corolla sedan, which defies the "one Corolla" consolidation of the hatchback model with separate "Prestige" (Chinese FAW and European Corolla) and "Sporty" (Japan, North America and Chinese GAC Levin) sedans. Thus, I'd agree that China will retain separate Alphard (for GAC) and Vellfire (for FAW) vans.
With the premium minivan market becoming increasingly competitive, I doubt Toyota will be able to continue commanding a huge premium for the Alphard and Vellfire, especially with the LM now sitting at the top of the pecking order.

That makes me wonder whether the Vellfire is just a stop gap measure to appease FAW. There has been a rumor for a while that a FAW Sienna is in the works, there is possibility that the Sienna will replace the Vellfire.

Some may say 'wait but the Vellfire is a luxury transport while the Sienna is a kids hauler'. No, these two sell for similar prices in their primary markets ($35-45k). FAW can just follow Buick's two-tier strategy with the GL8.

Meanwhile GAC could be working on a locally-produced Alphard. Together with Sienna it will chase for market share instead of just margins. Toyota will not let GM have the market to its own.

The LM will keep commanding high prices as an import and play the role of today's Alphard/Vellfire duo.
 

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Little birds sang that Alvell receives big minorchange in late fall (TMS). New interior and exterior looks and 2WD setting for the hybrid model. Model change is likely in early spring 2022.
A second "big minorchange in late fall 2019" after the minor one in January 2018? And the 4th-gen pushed back to spring 2022? I remain skeptical of that timetable, but can't be ruled out, either, the way so many Toyota models have seen extended cycles via second facelifts. Or it may have something to do with this:

That makes me wonder whether the Vellfire is just a stop gap measure to appease FAW. There has been a rumor for a while that a FAW Sienna is in the works, there is possibility that the Sienna will replace the Vellfire.

Some may say 'wait but the Vellfire is a luxury transport while the Sienna is a kids hauler'. No, these two sell for similar prices in their primary markets ($35-45k). FAW can just follow Buick's two-tier strategy with the GL8.

Meanwhile GAC could be working on a locally-produced Alphard. Together with Sienna it will chase for market share instead of just margins. Toyota will not let GM have the market to its own.
These comments hit upon something I've been wondering about: much as narrow and wide variants of Corolla and Camry were eventually consolidated into a single wide size for sale around the world, might we see similar consolidation or convergence between Sienna and the Alphard/Vellfire/LM triplets? There's certainly some logic in doing so, but also some issues making this convergence iffy. For one, per Carmaker1, the 4th-gen Sienna enters production in early March 2020, whereas 4th-gen Alvell wouldn't go on sale until sometime between January 2021 and early spring 2022. And the last Nissan Quest as thinly-disguised (albeit widened) JDM Nissan Elgrand was such a sales failure in North America that the nameplate was retired for good.
 

flexus

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Nissan hinted they will launch next gen Skyline soon (if Japan launch likely TMS) with pro pilot 2. It is between level 2 and level 3 autonomous driving.
 

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might we see similar consolidation or convergence between Sienna and the Alphard/Vellfire/LM triplets?
The Alvell has a 1.9m height and 1.4m cabin height since it is widely used as a mobility vehicle in Japan. Yes 1.8m vans like the Estima can also provide wheelchair access but that 10cm extra makes a lot of difference to ease of access hence the Alvell's popularity for this use.

The Sienna has always been a 1.8m vehicle since that guarantees access to all parking garages. The 1.9m Alvell has difficulties with parking garages in some countries (China being the prime example).
 

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And don't forget the way-overdue successor to the current 4th-gen Vitz/Euro Yaris. My best guess is that it'll make its world debut at the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show in September as the first TNGA-B Toyota...
Or...maybe not. An Automotive News Europe article suggests that Toyota will join all Fiat Chrysler's marques, Nissan, Volvo, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Rolls-Royce, Aston Martin, Subaru and Suzuki in skipping the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show. As things stand at the moment, 22 brands have decided not to exhibit in Frankfurt, according to an Automobilwoche survey (that's Automotive News' German-language publication).

No word on Lexus one way on the other, and I'm skeptical about the claim Toyota will skip the show altogether, given their past defense of auto shows. Then again, that was in the context of North America. Maybe Toyota Japan and Europe jointly decided to skip Frankfurt 2019. Or Automotive News Europe's Nick Gibbs simply got it wrong regarding Toyota's absence. Or maybe Toyota would be there but go the virtual as opposed to actual press conference route as they did at Geneva 2019.
 
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