Lexus August 2017 Sales Report

ssun30

You see, the difference in our views comes from our prediction on Lexus' future. I'm overall pessimistic with the brand seeing how sloppy Lexus executed the LS launch with three very questionable powertrain options (other aspects are almost perfect). Don't get me wrong, deep in my heart I absolutely would love to see high performance SUVs from Lexus. But it will take time for its corporate culture to catch up with Akio's vision. Getting out of an individual's comfort zone is already hard, combine that with billions at stake, you see how excruciating it must be to steer a mega corporation into another direction. This is especially true with Japanese corporations where changes are almost impossible, very painful indeed. Nissan has close to zero R&D except the BEV program and leave all the problems to Renault, the result is them leaving Infiniti to lay down and die.

The problem with TMC is how much they procrastinated on drivetrain development in the past decade. Sure the Dynamic Force is the engineering marvel of 2017, but it will be nothing when other players come up with HCCI ICEs around 2020, and then we'll have to wait another five or so years for TMC's response. Some people say Dynamic Force is a Skyactiv that's five years too late, and I can't disagree. Mazda is leading the charge to HCCI with Skyactiv X, and MB will follow shortly after.

In another post I mentioned that playing catch-up in the hyper-turbo-power-arms-race now is too late and too dear for Lexus. Their best way for breakthrough is utilizing its hybrid prowess and build serious high performance hybrid models. Unfortunately TMC, again, is two or three years behind the industry in battery technology because of the billions they spent on the castle in the sky called hydrogen fuel cells. The 2020 solid state battery may be the turning point, but solid state batteries are not optimized for power density.

I will remain pessimistic until I see solid information on TMC's two most important engines: the 3.0V6 turbo and the 2.0 Dynamic Force. If we see any GR or AR appear in any new models again, sorry, it's game over for Lexus.



You guys keep saying Lexus should "just" do this or that, "just a bigger engine", "just a F-model", "just an AWD system" etc. The problem is that Lexus couldn't "just do it" because its owner TMC wasn't proactively developing the technologies for it. The fact that Lexus has Toyota dragging its feet is exactly why it couldn't go head on against the Germans (yeah, there's Audi but Audi lags behind MB and BMW because of VW as well).

I understand your point. And that's why I said the UX is the best way for Lexus to start. Its a brand new car so Lexus should take advantage of that do it right the first time. They shouldn't have to play catch up. the SUV trend is just picking up. Just an opinion.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170907/FINANCE_AND_INSURANCE/170909838

Insurance companies refusing to issue insurance with car sales before Irma.

ssun30

In another post I mentioned that playing catch-up in the hyper-turbo-power-arms-race now is too late and too dear for Lexus. Their best way for breakthrough is utilizing its hybrid prowess and build serious high performance hybrid models. Unfortunately TMC, again, is two or three years behind the industry in battery technology because of the billions they spent on the castle in the sky called hydrogen fuel cells. The 2020 solid state battery may be the turning point, but solid state batteries are not optimized for power density.

This is SUCH a great point I just had to quote it.

ssun30

I will remain pessimistic until I see solid information on TMC's two most important engines: the 3.0V6 turbo and the 2.0 Dynamic Force. If we see any GR or AR appear in any new models again, sorry, it's game over for Lexus.

Both of these engines would look great in a subcompact crossover -- I truly believe the UX will be the turning point either way for Lexus. It has to be the engines that are delaying the release, no?

krew

This is SUCH a great point I just had to quote it.



Both of these engines would look great in a subcompact crossover -- I truly believe the UX will be the turning point either way for Lexus. It has to be the engines that are delaying the release, no?

What exactly is Lexus turning from in USA? For Europe, yes, it needs more lower spec, cheaper models like UX. For China, it needs local models, but for USA, it is competing on level basis and needs big crossover, something it does not need anywhere else.

As to the TMC being behind on HCCI and battery, HCCI is not even available yet (i have been reading about it in Europe since mid 90's) and EV cars except for Tesla are bottom barrel while TMC sells more than 1.5m hybrids per year.

It might not be tomorrows tech, but it is hard to fault TMC when they sell more electrified vehicles (to use Volvo terms) than everyone else, and most of them combined.

Most of the German luxury vehicles will have mild-hybrid setups after 2020, these are low tech 48v systems designed to increase economy in the city by 20% and nothing like full hybrid technology from TMC.

spwolf

As to the TMC being behind on HCCI and battery, HCCI is not even available yet (i have been reading about it in Europe since mid 90's) and EV cars except for Tesla are bottom barrel while TMC sells more than 1.5m hybrids per year.

It might not be tomorrows tech, but it is hard to fault TMC when they sell more electrified vehicles (to use Volvo terms) than everyone else, and most of them combined.

Most of the German luxury vehicles will have mild-hybrid setups after 2020, these are low tech 48v systems designed to increase economy in the city by 20% and nothing like full hybrid technology from TMC.

Mazda will have Skyactiv-X ready in 2019, just two years after Dynamic Force launch, and right now Mazda is testing mules with actual engines running. A 20% thermodynamic efficiency improvement over Skyactiv-G (Mazda never specified the numbers, but an educated guess would be 38%) will leave Dynamic Force in the dust.

The strength of the 48/42V mild-hybrids is that they come at much lower cost and cold climate performance penalty than full hybrids. They are there to replace gas-only models, not hybrids. I expect TMC to do the same, but maybe after the solid state batteries (that can operate in cold weather) are available.

I wasn't entirely correct when I stated TMC is two years behind industry average in battery tech. HEV batteries are very different from BEV batteries since they have to sacrifice a lot of energy density for power density. This, combined with TMC's very cautious approach with their state-of-charge management, gives a false sense that TMC's hybrid batteries have poor specs. To do them justice I should have said they are on par with the industry but two years behind Tesla only.

The LC500h's multi-stage hybrid has a very exciting Li-ion battery with 1 kW/kg power density. No other manufacturer gets even close to this number (Tesla currently caps out at 750 W/kg). The F1/LMP1 hybrid batteries are the only ones that are more powerful. But it's still not really enough since Lexus will have to take a 45 kg weight penalty for every 60 hp gained.

ssun30

Mazda will have Skyactiv-X ready in 2019, just two years after Dynamic Force launch, and right now Mazda is testing mules with actual engines running. A 20% thermodynamic efficiency improvement over Skyactiv-G (Mazda never specified the numbers, but an educated guess would be 38%) will leave Dynamic Force in the dust.

The strength of the 48/42V mild-hybrids is that they come at much lower cost and cold climate performance penalty than full hybrids. They are there to replace gas-only models, not hybrids. I expect TMC to do the same, but maybe after the solid state batteries (that can operate in cold weather) are available.

I wasn't entirely correct when I stated TMC is two years behind industry average in battery tech. HEV batteries are very different from BEV batteries since they have to sacrifice a lot of energy density for power density. This, combined with TMC's very cautious approach with their state-of-charge management, gives a false sense that TMC's hybrid batteries have poor specs. To do them justice I should have said they are on par with the industry but two years behind Tesla only.

The LC500h's multi-stage hybrid has a very exciting Li-ion battery with 1 kW/kg power density on the package level. No other manufacturer gets even close to this number (Tesla currently caps out at 750 W/kg). The F1/LMP1 hybrid batteries are the only ones that are more powerful. But it's still not really enough since Lexus will have to take a 45 kg weight penalty for every 60 hp gained.

48v hybrids are half arsed solutions that luckily TMC does not have to use... there is nothing good about 48v hybrids - they are half solutions for companies that failed to invest into hybrid technology when time was right. Problem for them is that they have to buy hybrid tech from suppliers, and that makes it way more expensive than TMC's. Even Nissan has developed good hybrid system apparently, and Renault will get access to that. So main manufacturers left without competitive hybrids are germans and now you see all these PR articles how by 2025 they will have a billion EVs available as well as mild hybrids.

As to the HCCI, I was actually pretty surprised how little there is gain compared to current engines. Maybe due to longetivity/performance? Considering they have to use kompressors, they will be fairly expensive, certainly more expensive than their current skyactive ones (according to mazda).

20% increase on 38% is certainly not possible either. All the reviews pointed around 40 MPG (UK) during test drives, which is not bad, not nothing close to hybrid mileage those same mags get when testing latest TMC hybrids (in prius usually they pointed out about 50 to 60 uk mpg). Besides, Mazda is not TMC competitor, if anything it will likely become bigger part of TMC in few years, just like Subaru.

So yeah, nothing is leaving those dynamic force engines in dust, especially not when paired with HSD like in new Camry. Now lets put that engine asap into all of Lexus 4cly lineup.

spwolf

48v hybrids are half arsed solutions that luckily TMC does not have to use... there is nothing good about 48v hybrids - they are half solutions for companies that failed to invest into hybrid technology when time was right. Problem for them is that they have to buy hybrid tech from suppliers, and that makes it way more expensive than TMC's. Even Nissan has developed good hybrid system apparently, and Renault will get access to that. So main manufacturers left without competitive hybrids are germans and now you see all these PR articles how by 2025 they will have a billion EVs available as well as mild hybrids.

As to the HCCI, I was actually pretty surprised how little there is gain compared to current engines. Maybe due to longetivity/performance? Considering they have to use kompressors, they will be fairly expensive, certainly more expensive than their current skyactive ones (according to mazda).

20% increase on 38% is certainly not possible either. All the reviews pointed around 40 MPG (UK) during test drives, which is not bad, not nothing close to hybrid mileage those same mags get when testing latest TMC hybrids (in prius usually they pointed out about 50 to 60 uk mpg). Besides, Mazda is not TMC competitor, if anything it will likely become bigger part of TMC in few years, just like Subaru.

So yeah, nothing is leaving those dynamic force engines in dust, especially not when paired with HSD like in new Camry. Now lets put that engine asap into all of Lexus 4cly lineup.

The reason why majority of the automotive industry could not make proper full hybrids is that they couldn't legally do so. TMC set the barrier extremely high twenty years ago through an extensive network of patents that precludes any other manufacturer from developing practical hybrid solutions. 2017 is the year when most of these patents will expire, and as a result, we will expect a boom in hybrid cars in the next five years. Of course TMC will still be very dominant with two decades of experience. The 48/42v systems are there to meet CAFE regulations, since it's the easiest short-term solution to get 10% or so extra MPG on gas-only vehicles, they were never intended to compete against full hybrids.

Dynamic Force+HSD will still be the golden standard for efficiency for the next five years. What happens after that entirely depends on how aggressively TMC takes on HCCI. You can say TMC is sandbagging seeing how the Prius uses a very old (but very efficient) ICE. But speculations are just speculations, just because others couldn't legally build hybrids before doesn't mean they don't have the tech pool to have them ready in the very near future.

ssun30

The reason why majority of the automotive industry could not make proper full hybrids is that they couldn't legally do so. TMC set the barrier extremely high twenty years ago through an extensive network of patents that precludes any other manufacturer from developing practical hybrid solutions. 2017 is the year when most of these patents will expire, and as a result, we will expect a boom in hybrid cars in the next five years. Of course TMC will still be very dominant with two decades of experience. The 48/42v systems are there to meet CAFE regulations, since it's the easiest short-term solution to get 10% or so extra MPG on gas-only vehicles, they were never intended to compete against full hybrids.

Dynamic Force+HSD will still be the golden standard for efficiency for the next five years. What happens after that entirely depends on how aggressively TMC takes on HCCI. You can say TMC is sandbagging seeing how the Prius uses a very old (but very efficient) ICE. But speculations are just speculations, just because others couldn't legally build hybrids before doesn't mean they don't have the tech pool to have them ready in the very near future.

This is first time I have heard that TMC patents prevented other companies from doing hybrids... Nissan has excellent hybrid system, and Hyundai/KIA have decent one. Honda has great hybrid system too. Ford has a good system too and later version does not use Toyota parts. Fords problem is that they focused on profitability so spending billions on new hybrid systems were off the table.

All of them are better than systems from Germans.

So it is only Europeans that do not have hybrid systems that work well, they have PR pieces that they show on TV and talk about on auto shows, but in reality, they sell peanuts. In Europe, VW sells few in few countries where there are big tax breaks, but it is very low numbers overall.

I would say is that real reason is they did not want to spend money into R&D like Toyota and that their home markets preferred diesels, up until this year. So it was more affordable for them to simply do diesels only and then just talk about hybrids, without having to make them in quantity. They show few plugins at auto shows and claim that they will get 30 models in 10 years and thats about it.

But problem is that now there is a big negative attention towards diesels in Europe. Coincidentally, starting on 1.1.2018, turbo petrols will have to have particle filters, which will also increase their price in Europe. Even worse is that from 1.9.2017, new cars introduced will have to have realistic emissions and fuel consumption tests, which also works really bad for small turbo petrols that they have been advertising. So they are between the rock and hard place right now. Hence 48v and claims about "electrification". Fun fact - Volvo mostly sells diesels in Europe, their XC90 sells well but it is only 10k per year, out of 290k of Volvos in Europe.

There are many 48v systems that were tried before and none worked well. Problem with them doing significant amount of hybrids is that they have to pay all these suppliers, where Toyota does most of it in house. So Toyota has competitive advantage and their solution is to talk about mild hybrids are position them as "electrification".

This works well for Toyota, as cost of competitor vehicles goes up with 48v hybrids while TMC technology is still much, much better. Too bad that others are not too well positioned in Europe - Honda has just introduced new hybrid system for CRV (but their sales in Europe are niche). KIA/Hyundai mostly sells cheap cars and Nissan has yet to bring their system to Europe, or outside of Japan.

ssun30

Dynamic Force+HSD will still be the golden standard for efficiency for the next five years. What happens after that entirely depends on how aggressively TMC takes on HCCI. You can say TMC is sandbagging seeing how the Prius uses a very old (but very efficient) ICE.

btw, did you see TMC teasing C-HR Hy Power concept? It should be latest new, more powerful 4cly hybrid system for their vehicles - likely from new Camry.

As to the Prius, they are not sandbagging anything. Dont be confused by them using ZR block. It is basically completely reworked and setting new standards in efficiency, only block is the same. It has been measured as lower consuming than 2.0tdi at steady speed highway driving (70 MPH) - while previous Prius/ZR was nowhere close - and this is without hybrid system working at all, just gas engine. This is why real life Prius and C-HR are getting awesome mpgs and much better than before, despite same engine block.

As for the UX let's be honest it is going to sell no matter what. People are buying CUV's in droves, it will have Lexus features it will be a hit.

I'm 100% with Gecko that Lexus needs high power SUVs. Our loaded RX F-Sport is nice but lacks power. 300hp or so just doesn't cut it anymore especially in vehicles that weigh 4500 lbs. It needs a 400hp option and MORE for loyal Lexus owners that want to stay with the brand as well as people they want to attract. Vehicles like the X5m and Cayenne GTS are really appealing and seeing Mercedes even build the GLC 43 and 63 makes the RX seem staid again even with the aggressive styling.

The LX with 383hp or so is adequate but a 500hp option would be STELLAR!

spwolf

What exactly is Lexus turning from in USA? For Europe, yes, it needs more lower spec, cheaper models like UX. For China, it needs local models, but for USA, it is competing on level basis and needs big crossover, something it does not need anywhere else.
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I can't go in detail but it sounds like at this past dealer meeting the future for Lexus is very bright with new products and engines coming and are only a part of the step up the company will showcase shortly.

mikeavelli

As for the UX let's be honest it is going to sell no matter what. People are buying CUV's in droves, it will have Lexus features it will be a hit.

I'm 100% with Gecko that Lexus needs high power SUVs. Our loaded RX F-Sport is nice but lacks power. 300hp or so just doesn't cut it anymore especially in vehicles that weigh 4500 lbs. It needs a 400hp option and MORE for loyal Lexus owners that want to stay with the brand as well as people they want to attract. Vehicles like the X5m and Cayenne GTS are really appealing and seeing Mercedes even build the GLC 43 and 63 makes the RX seem staid again even with the aggressive styling.

The LX with 383hp or so is adequate but a 500hp option would be STELLAR!



I can't go in detail but it sounds like at this past dealer meeting the future for Lexus is very bright with new products and engines coming and are only a part of the step up the company will showcase shortly.

Mike, any timeframes when new stuff will be introduced?

spwolf

This is first time I have heard that TMC patents prevented other companies from doing hybrids... Nissan has excellent hybrid system, and Hyundai/KIA have decent one. Honda has great hybrid system too. Ford has a good system too and later version does not use Toyota parts. Fords problem is that they focused on profitability so spending billions on new hybrid systems were off the table.

All of them are better than systems from Germans.

So it is only Europeans that do not have hybrid systems that work well, they have PR pieces that they show on TV and talk about on auto shows, but in reality, they sell peanuts. In Europe, VW sells few in few countries where there are big tax breaks, but it is very low numbers overall.

I would say is that real reason is they did not want to spend money into R&D like Toyota and that their home markets preferred diesels, up until this year. So it was more affordable for them to simply do diesels only and then just talk about hybrids, without having to make them in quantity. They show few plugins at auto shows and claim that they will get 30 models in 10 years and thats about it.

All the alternative systems are decent, but not great. HSD is, as of 2017, the most superior hybrid system available, period. HSD does four things right: reliability, efficiency, practicality, and cost (both material and labor). Other car manufacturers can get three of them right, but never all four. In China Toyota could produce the Prius drivetrain cheaper than a competitor's turbocharged 1.4/1.5 gasoline engine (with transmission). That's how simple HSD is. All other solutions are either more complex or not as efficient, and they could not do any better because TMC blocked them from doing so for two decades. In other words, all non-HSD hybrid solutions out there are work-arounds to avoid a legal conflict with TMC. Hyundai managed to outdo HSD in efficiency because of their superior battery tech, and that's where TMC is currently lacking in.

spwolf

btw, did you see TMC teasing C-HR Hy Power concept? It should be latest new, more powerful 4cly hybrid system for their vehicles - likely from new Camry.

As to the Prius, they are not sandbagging anything. Dont be confused by them using ZR block. It is basically completely reworked and setting new standards in efficiency, only block is the same. It has been measured as lower consuming than 2.0tdi at steady speed highway driving (70 MPH) - while previous Prius/ZR was nowhere close - and this is without hybrid system working at all, just gas engine. This is why real life Prius and C-HR are getting awesome mpgs and much better than before, despite same engine block.

The TNGA 2ZR-FXE basically adds the ESTEC package to the original version. The Dynamic Force concept is a trio of tech packages: the Dynamic Force block, ESTEC, and D-4S. In that sense the Prius does use an older generation of engine, and that's why it almost got beaten by the new Camry Hybrid in MPG.

I remember from a 2015 interview that Toyota chose to use an older engine because they could already achieve the 55 MPG target with it, while their "next gen" (probably referring to Dynamic Force) is considered insufficient for the higher goal (60 MPG). They then decided to go with the safer approach. The obvious price they pay is leaving Prius at a meager 122hp. A Dynamic Force engine will have 40% higher specific power for the same thermodynamic efficiency. Just imagine the Prius with a 170hp drivetrain based on Dynamic Force instead of this pitiful decade-old engine, TMC missed the chance to transform the Prius here. Maybe we will see a Prius Sport or something in the future but for now it's still the most boring automobile on the planet.

I expect the C-HR Hy Power to have the "250h" powertrain. Namely a hybridized 2.0L with 2.5L level of power, possibly 170-180hp. It could be a good moment to debut their 2.0 Dynamic Force. Another possibility is the "300h" drivetrain with 230-240hp. I'm leaning towards the first one since I doubt Lexus will allow the C-HR to be more powerful than the UX.

Now the more I think about this the more I get bothered by the demise of the CT. A "treehugger's hothatch" could definitely be a hit in Europe...

ssun30

All the alternative systems are decent, but not great. HSD is, as of 2017, the most superior hybrid system available, period. HSD does four things right: reliability, efficiency, practicality, and cost (both material and labor). Other car manufacturers can get three of them right, but never all four. In China Toyota could produce the Prius drivetrain cheaper than a competitor's turbocharged 1.4/1.5 gasoline engine (with transmission). That's how simple HSD is. All other solutions are either more complex or not as efficient, and they could not do any better because TMC blocked them from doing so for two decades. In other words, all non-HSD hybrid solutions out there are work-arounds to avoid a legal conflict with TMC. Hyundai managed to outdo HSD in efficiency because of their superior battery tech, and that's where TMC is currently lacking in.



The TNGA 2ZR-FXE basically adds the ESTEC package to the original version. The Dynamic Force concept is a trio of tech packages: the Dynamic Force block, ESTEC, and D-4S. In that sense the Prius does use an older generation of engine, and that's why it almost got beaten by the new Camry Hybrid in MPG.

I remember from a 2015 interview that Toyota chose to use an older engine because they could already achieve the 55 MPG target with it, while their "next gen" (probably referring to Dynamic Force) is considered insufficient for the higher goal (60 MPG). They then decided to go with the safer approach. The obvious price they pay is leaving Prius at a meager 122hp. A Dynamic Force engine will have 40% higher specific power for the same thermodynamic efficiency. Just imagine the Prius with a 170hp drivetrain based on Dynamic Force instead of this pitiful decade-old engine, TMC missed the chance to transform the Prius here. Maybe we will see a Prius Sport or something in the future but for now it's still the most boring automobile on the planet.

I expect the C-HR Hy Power to have the "250h" powertrain. Namely a hybridized 2.0L with 2.5L level of power, possibly 170-180hp. It could be a good moment to debut their 2.0 Dynamic Force. Another possibility is the "300h" drivetrain with 230-240hp. I'm leaning towards the first one since I doubt Lexus will allow the C-HR to be more powerful than the UX.

Now the more I think about this the more I get bothered by the demise of the CT. A "treehugger's hothatch" could definitely be a hit in Europe...

i think you are grossly oversimplifying things - for instance, if Honda and Ford could build 2 motor systems, so could others, but they did not. It is their marketing decision on where to spend resources - just like Toyota decided not to do more small diesels - they have 10 billion R&D fond, they sell over 1m diesels worldwide and yet it was their decision to save money.

Also price for HSD is cheap because they make 1.5m hybrids per year and they do it in-house. Selling price of the vehicle, like in China, or in Europe now, is determined by marketing department, not the factory. This is why TME (Europe) has a loss now, even with record sales - they are subsidizing pricing of HSD versions in Europe. Real cost is high, this is why Hyundai is building simpler system and why Ford and Honda are dragging their feet with HSD-like system - it is significant. But again, Toyota makes 1.5m of them, so it is more affordable, but only for them. Same goes for diesels - in Europe, Toyota gross margins on diesels were always less than on their petrols, since they could not pass the cost to the customer, it would be too expensive.

As to the other things - for instance, many mags in Europe tested Prius vs Ioniq and Prius gets 10-20% better real life mpg. Thats despite it being larger vehicle with more room inside (it is one size or half size larger car, depending on where in the world you live). AutoExpress had them at 58 MPG vs 48 MPG (UK). Same as Camry vs Prius - real life consumption will not be close at all. But with Camry you get bigger and more powerful vehicle. Another problem is more traditional one - Hyundai/KIA hybrids traditionally had a ton of issues and it seems to appear the same for new ones - KIA Niro is riddled with multiple hybrid issues as of now.

As to the better performance per liter, obviously with D4S it gets more power but thats again a marketing decision - they have to sell these vehicles at certain prices, everything is price sensitive. Small and affordable cars get lesser version of powertrain.

But whats good is that they are willing to finally offer multiple versions of hybrid powertrains for same vehicles. Just like Rav4 previusly having 2-3 petrol + 2-3 diesel versions in Europe, why not have several HSD versions.

My guess will be that it will be Camry Hybrid powertrain - easy >200hp for them and good performance from low revs. It would be awesome for C-HR as higher power versions. Rav4 used to have 1.8l, 2.0l petrols and 2.0 150hp, 2.0l 177hp diesels.

spwolf

What exactly is Lexus turning from in USA? For Europe, yes, it needs more lower spec, cheaper models like UX. For China, it needs local models, but for USA, it is competing on level basis and needs big crossover, something it does not need anywhere else.

Turning point in that if the UX will set the tone for the next-generation of entry-level Lexus vehicles. It's a perfect platform for a new line of engines, and that looks to be the case based on the trademarks filed last year:

• UX 200: The best guess for the 200 designation is the four-cylinder 2.0L 6AR-FSE engine currently used in the Chinese Camry and ES 200, rated at 165 horsepower.
• UX 250: Likely a 2.5L four-cylinder engine, perhaps the 178 horsepower 2AR-FE used in multiple Toyota applications.
• UX 250h: The 250h designation is a mystery, as the 2.5L 2AR-FXE hybrid engine is classified as a 300h in the Lexus lineup. The 2.4L 2AZ-FXE engine found in the HS 250h is an option, but seems unlikely. We could be looking at a new hybrid engine with this trademark.