The Lexus LM Minivan Megathread

[spwolf]

At least in the U.S., the only LM-related filed trademarks are LM 300h and LM 350.

I like they are pushing hard on Asia where they can grow significantly by offering unique models that are of interest there and maybe not everywhere else. I am sure this would never be offered in Europe, and US might get it simply because Asia pays off its development...

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I'd be very surprised if the US got this, unless the buying public suddenly realizes SUVs are kinda dumb for what they're using them for and starts hoarding Siennas.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

It bears mentioning here that Lexus minivan rumors go way back further than the October 2018 story that kicked off this thread. Their true origins lie with an Automotive News story by Hans Greimel from March 2014 that begat this Lexus Enthusiast News story:

https://lexusenthusiast.com/2014/03/12/lexus-build-ultra-luxury-van-asia/

 

[spwolf]

I'd be very surprised if the US got this, unless the buying public suddenly realizes SUVs are kinda dumb for what they're using them for and starts hoarding Siennas.

It might end up like UX in the USA - while not designed as US its core market, it is still offered.

Then again, it might be more expensive than RX, which makes sense in Asian markets, but makes no sense in the USA.
Naming it LM and making it 4th car with L - LS, LC, LX and now LM, does make it seem like it would be higher class vehicle than RX.

 

[Joe]

:scream: I do hope for the preservation of the international brand image of Lexus that they won't present a 'facelift with Lexus sauce' version of the hideous Alphard :confounded::bomb:

 

[ydooby]

It might end up like UX in the USA - while not designed as US its core market, it is still offered.

Then again, it might be more expensive than RX, which makes sense in Asian markets, but makes no sense in the USA.
Naming it LM and making it 4th car with L - LS, LC, LX and now LM, does make it seem like it would be higher class vehicle than RX.

Agreed. Remember that the LM was actually trademarked in the USA first.
https://lexusenthusiast.com/forums/threads/lexus-trademarks-lm-350-lm-300h-nameplates-in-usa.4555/

 

[Gecko]

Alphard was all-new in 2015, I think, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them base it on that vs. a new TNGA platform. If it's going to be a model for APAC-only, I feel like they'll go the route of minimal investment for things like the chassis/platform. But then again, maybe they'll want to jump to TNGA ASAP.

 

[ydooby]

Alphard was all-new in 2015, I think, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them base it on that vs. a new TNGA platform. If it's going to be a model for APAC-only, I feel like they'll go the route of minimal investment for things like the chassis/platform. But then again, maybe they'll want to jump to TNGA ASAP.

For what's supposed to be an all-new model for Lexus they had better not simply slap a Lexus badge onto the existing Alphard. I would not be terribly surprised but simply terribly disappointed if Lexus does take the cheapo route instead of properly designing a new vehicle with the TNGA platform.

 

[Deusex]

Say what? where is new LX and GX? what the hell is Lexus thinking?

 

[flexus]

Say what? where is new LX and GX? what the hell is Lexus thinking?

They don't bring as mucha money as mini van would.

 

[Gecko]

They don't bring as mucha money as mini van would.

I'm not sure that is true. GX and LX are both notorious cash cows for Lexus being based on the Land Cruiser 150 and 200 platforms. Lexus has been quoted as using the term "printing money" in relation to the GX specifically.

Profitability of this thing will depend on how much of a rebadge it is.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

Say what? where is new LX and GX? what the hell is Lexus thinking?

The 4th-gen LX is expected to enter production a bit over a year from now (summer 2020) for a 2021 model year debut.

The wait for 3rd-gen GX, on the other hand, could be significantly longer. We should expect some sort of refresh for the current 2nd-gen model this fall (2020 model year), but estimates for the debut date of the 3rd-gen GX vary wildly. It should be no earlier than autumn 2022 (2023 model year) and could be as late as the 1st quarter of 2024 (!)

 

[spwolf]

I'm not sure that is true. GX and LX are both notorious cash cows for Lexus being based on the Land Cruiser 150 and 200 platforms. Lexus has been quoted as using the term "printing money" in relation to the GX specifically.

Profitability of this thing will depend on how much of a rebadge it is.

Actually, LX is actually selling really good for them overall... GX sells well only in the USA, hence less development seen vs LX.

But LX is a real deal overall, it sells similar numbers to GL, which is considerably cheaper to start with worldwide.

 

[spwolf]

For what's supposed to be an all-new model for Lexus they had better not simply slap a Lexus badge onto the existing Alphard. I would not be terribly surprised but simply terribly disappointed if Lexus does take the cheapo route instead of properly designing a new vehicle with the TNGA platform.

and when exactly did they do that? If they base on it Alphard, it will likely get unique interior/exterior like NX did vs Rav4.

 

[Gecko]

Actually, LX is actually selling really good for them overall... GX sells well only in the USA, hence less development seen vs LX.

But LX is a real deal overall, it sells similar numbers to GL, which is considerably cheaper to start with worldwide.

Yes I am aware of this, thus my comment.

 

[ssun30]

Profitability of this thing will depend on how much of a rebadge it is.

I would not be terribly surprised but simply terribly disappointed if Lexus does take the cheapo route instead of properly designing a new vehicle with the TNGA platform.

There is little incentive for them to jump to TNGA considering the only purpose of this model is to print money. The Alphard already is the best luxury minivan, period. The Alphard is relatively new and got its facelift last year with updated powertrains and interior. They cannot improve its competitiveness any further because there is no competitor.

We have to understand why the LM exists. This thing is targeted at the chinese market specifically, where the Alphard is a Veblen good: a luxury item that gets more popular the more expensive it gets. It reached that status because it is the best luxury minivan by a long shot. In JDM it costs between $35-55k (although there is a $150k special trim for VIP transport), but in China the MSRP is $120k and the average transaction price is $170k. Dealership add huge markups on them due to huge demand and limited supply. People who buy an Alphard would never compare it to a Mercedes V-Class, a Buick GL8 Avenir, or a Nissan Quest; they cross-shop it against Mercedes S-Class Maybach, Maserati Ghibli, and entry-level Bentleys, in which case $170k is a bargain. Even at such ridiculous prices they sold over one thousand of these a month, more than the LS, LX, and LC combined.

The LM will be the profit maximization machine for them, so they will do whatever they can to reduce costs. They could already command a ridiculous premium without a TNGA update because it is already the best. Let's just forget this stupidity and look at the bright side: it will be so profitable that it will pay for R&D for all their F models in the future.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

The 4th-gen LX is expected to enter production a bit over a year from now (summer 2020) for a 2021 model year debut.

The wait for 3rd-gen GX, on the other hand, could be significantly longer. We should expect some sort of refresh for the current 2nd-gen model this fall (2020 model year), but estimates for the debut date of the 3rd-gen GX vary wildly. It should be no earlier than autumn 2022 (2023 model year) and could be as late as the 1st quarter of 2024 (!)

What a joke. 2024? That's essentially a 14-15 year life cycle. I haven't heard of anything that long bar the Mercedes-Benz Geländewagen and the Land Rover Defender. The Toyota Tundra (once it gets released in 2020) has a 1 year shorter cycle. Insane.

 

[thtupid]

Yes please! These luxury vans are an alternative to limos in asia. Who wouldn't like a fully reclined business class lounge with all the bells and whistles and still have enough space for the assistant in the front seat?

 

[Carmaker1]

What a joke. 2024? That's essentially a 14-15 year life cycle. I haven't heard of anything that long bar the Mercedes-Benz Geländewagen and the Land Rover Defender. The Toyota Tundra (once it gets released in 2020) has a 1 year shorter cycle. Insane.

Yes, but that's what they are ridiculously doing. I said as late as Q1 2024, because of staggered launch. The current J150 was launched in January 2010 as a 2010 model, just like LS 500 in January 2018 in Japan and US February 2018 as a 2018 model.

In fact, someone just gave a claim that the 2020 RX arrives in August 2019 and GX in September 2019. Something tells me they could be credible...at least this time. The fact that not just one model was mentioned, but two of them makes me believe them somewhat.

Unfortunately take everything with a grain of salt, because just like the Prado situation 2 years ago, I heard about a GX facelift coming early 2018, I assumed it extended to the US market 4Runner and let some Toyota affiliated engineers mislead me on that, despite them not even having direct access to the N280 life-cycle clearly.

I feel very stupid for that, as it's quite an embarrassment and hurt my credibility.ensive: Anyway, I am very confident that the GX is definitely getting another facelift this year. Weirdly enough, maybe that annoying tidbit I dismissed about a 2021 4Runner change up, has some validity. But why deviate from the 150-Series set? All are built in Japan, so it doesn't make sense how in late 2017 Prado got a refresh, then GX in late summer 2019, then 4Runner only gets some safety tech for MY 2020? I digress.

 

[Gecko]

When it comes to GX, the people I know with good information laugh at the term "refresh" and put it in air quotes. I think it will be similar to 4Runner - just a tech addition (bigger screen, Android Auto, CarPlay, Alexa) with possibly no sheetmetal change whatsoever.

Anyway, back to the minivan.