Long term collectibility/desirability of ICE gasoline cars

[Gecko]

I'm back to debating the purchase of a GS F, IS 500 or LC 500 and if I pull the trigger on one of them, it would be something I keep for a long time to come. The primary reason for purchase would be getting one of the last RWD V8 models Lexus ever builds and keeping it as a collector vehicle. Growing up in the era of IS 300, GS 400, GS 430, IS 350, IS F... those cars are what made me love Lexus and the end of that chapter is basically here now.

While I know the future with BEVs can be exciting, it's not something that interests me anytime soon. I have a few questions/thoughts primarily around what the future for ICE gasoline cars will look like in 15-20 years when there are more BEVs and their numbers are only increasing. I'm not buying this car as an investment per se, but thinking about cities banning ICE vehicles and gas stations disappearing does give me pause about how much I could enjoy an ICE performance car when I also plan to keep my GX 460 for similar reasons. I also think about what will happen to gasoline prices over the next 5-10 years, though I know they remain relatively stable over the long term. Part of me expects gasoline prices to drop as a way to attract folks looking at BEVs, but no idea what the real 10+ year outlook is like.

I believe that gasoline will be a part of our energy economy for a long time to come but I wonder if we will reach a point where "old" ICE gasoline cars more rapidly lose their value due to regulations and rules, and the switch to electric. This uncertainty around potential legislation changes and vehicle value makes me more keen on spending $60-70k on an IS 500 or CPO GS F than a $120k LC 500... but it's still something to think about.

Anyone have any thoughts on this, or have you considered similar things?

 

[RAL]

If I were you, I wouldn't overthink it ... no question ... the LC.

 

[mmcartalk]

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I won't get into all the reasons why, because it would probably be too political for this forum, but I am not convinced that we need to switch to BEVs en masse. To at least some extent, it is being forced on the public from outside sources, and many people do not (and will not ) have recharging-outlets for BEV available at home. They live in condos, apartments, military barracks, house-trailers, or some town house designs without any garages or outdoor electric-plugs. Many of those people will need to drive either hybrids or ICE vehicles from sheer necessity.

 

[LS500-18]

Gasoline and gasoline vehicles will be around for decades from now, I have no doubt. You have no worries about buying any collectible ICE for the next 10+ years. Unless you live in California.

 

[Levi]

I do think some current ICEVs are collectible worthy, because even if ICEVs are here to stay for quite some time, they won’t be the same ones. All the nice ones will be replaced by BEVs. The resting ICEVs that will be on sale will be the equivalent of of electric gold carts, so utility only, and nothing close to the V8 GS’ you feel nostalgic about.

I always keep in mind the IS Sportcross. Then there is of course all the 2UR-GSE Lexus F cars, the LC 500 specifically. 911 with flat 6s, but these will exist forever until man lives (like Swiss watches), but priced unobtainable. Maybe a Subaru XV and WRX. No worries about Landcruiser, unless V8 is wanted., maybe the Supra, best car with B58, would be even better with S58. The Lotus Emira is tempting, because it looks fabulous. GR86 is a great car, but knowing a successor is in the works, it would be more a question of preference.

 

[Gecko]

I do think some current ICEVs are collectible worthy, because even if ICEVs are here to stay for quite some time, they won’t be the same ones. All the nice ones will be replaced by BEVs. The resting ICEVs that will be on sale will be the equivalent of of electric gold carts, so utility only, and nothing close to the V8 GS’ you feel nostalgic about.

I always keep in mind the IS Sportcross. Then there is of course all the 2UR-GSE Lexus F cars, the LC 500 specifically. 911 with flat 6s, but these will exist forever until man lives (like Swiss watches), but priced unobtainable. Maybe a Subaru XV and WRX. No worries about Landcruiser, unless V8 is wanted., maybe the Supra, best car with B58, would be even better with S58. The Lotus Emira is tempting, because it looks fabulous. GR86 is a great car, but knowing a successor is in the works, it would be more a question of preference.

There was a gray IS 300 SportCross local to me that was in MINT condition and only had 26k miles on it. I had serious trouble NOT buying that car!

 

[LS500-18]

I would argue that ICE vehicles are inherently more collectable because you can store one in a barn for 30-40 years and someone can get it going again later. Imagine finding a 40 year old EV that's been parked. The battery will be an 800 lb paperweight that you will need to figure out how to replace in a manner that will need to be drivable. It won't happen. EVs are utterly disposable in the long-long run.

Think of EVs as appliances, no one wants a 40 year old Samsung washing machine.

 

[Heicho]

I liken BEVs in general to computers in the 90s. BEV tech is still in its infancy and will continue to improve at a rapid pace just like processors back then. Once solid state batteries become available in BEVs all previous gen BEVs will be obsoleted. ICE tech has more or less plateaued so it's not gonna get much better than this without hybrid systems. In fact we're moving away from naturally aspirated big engines and hydraulic steering racks so better get them while they last if that's what you want! The only thing that will save the V8 in the long run is hydrogen ICE tech and I hope Toyota succeeds in bringing it to market.

 

[Will1991]

I’m with @RAL on this one, LC without a question, I would wait for the last MY LC500 with the V8 though.
I’m sure Lexus will’ve some final edition V8, that would be the one I would go for.

The GS F and IS500 are amazing cars, but the way the LC look… It’s so different than anything else… It’s almost a production concept car.

If I may, I would also consider the IS-F as it was the first car that left a pretty hard writing idea on my head:

 

[Och]

Go with the GS-F if you can find one in a mint condition, it was at least somewhat competitive with the Germans in its time.

 

[JRB]

Do you need luggage space? Room for clubs? 2018-2020 GS F. To keep the SOS button and remote start!

EXTERIOR COLORS​

• Atomic Silver (1J7)
• Caviar (223)
• Flare Yellow (5C1)
• Liquid Platinum (1J2)
• Matador Red Mica (3R1)
• Smoky Granite Mica (1G0)
• Ultra White (083)
• Ultrasonic Blue Mica 2.0 (8X1)

Handling on the track and long rallys? LC Coupe opt for four wheel steering option.

LC 500 Coupe CHANGE	Ultra White	Polar Surge Satin (Inspiration Series only)	Atomic Silver	Cloudburst Gray	Caviar	Infrared	Copper Crest	Flare Yellow	Nori Green Pearl	Ultrasonic Blue Mica 2.0
EXTERIOR COLORS

Compact package? IS 500

IS 500 F SPORT Performance CHANGE	Ultra White	Eminent White Pearl	Atomic Silver	Cloudburst Gray	Iridium	Caviar	Incognito with Obsidian Roof	Matador Red Mica	Infrared	Molten Pearl	Ultrasonic Blue Mica 2.0	Grecian Water
EXTERIOR COLORS
	083	085	1J7	1L1	1L2	223	2YX	3R1	3T5	4W7	8X1	8Y6

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I liken BEVs in general to computers in the 90s. BEV tech is still in its infancy and will continue to improve at a rapid pace just like processors back then. Once solid state batteries become available in BEVs all previous gen BEVs will be obsoleted.

Exactly. There are some BEVs out now that I like and could be practical for me, but I know that once SSBs are widely available they'll have zero resale value unless some kind of conversion kit becomes available.

 

[mikeavelli]

Low mileage pristine Lexus V-8s will definitely hold value. The LC in particular is remarkable thus far.

 

[CRSKTN]

Dont underestimate the potential for retrofits of powertrains in the future.

 

[Levi]

I think about the IS Sportcross only for the purpose of retrofit.

 

[Gecko]

OK, fine... I'm ordering an IS 500 then.

 

[Levi]

Why did you @Gecko find it funny about “my” retrofitted IS Sportcross? (Not that I am hurt). It on the contrary is a very carefully thought over project of mine (that need lots of money and time). I am not anti-BEV in terms of technology, but up-coming BEVs are more than cars with batteries, they a blobs filled with screens. I wouldn’t want a Tesla Y even with 2UR, the car is just so ugly in and out.

The Sportcross is compact but practical, it is an old car and is not obese. If I were to buy one, I would not drive it, I don’t find the 2JZ appropriate for today, the 2.0 is slow (without supercharger), and both the 2.0 and 3.0 litre drink much petrol (for what they output). More than that the 2JZ is a heavy piece for 250 PS. Doing a swap is not going to be easy, because other than an even bigger 1UZ or LSV8, there are no kits/documentation. The Motus V4 (half LSV8) would be an engine I’d wish to swap in. But if already to do total rebuild/re-engineering, I prefer going BEV and making it “future proof”, it will be a “dirty gas guzzling” young timer styled BEV in a see of Chinese styled blobs.

 

[CRSKTN]

Why did you find it funny about retrofitted IS Sportcross? (Not that I am hurt). It on the contrary is a very thought out project of mine (that need lots of money and time). I am not anti-BEV in terms of technology, but up-coming BEVs are more than cars with batteries, they a blobs filled with screens. I wouldn’t and a Tesla Y with 2UR, the car is just so ugly in and out.

The Sportcross is compact but practical, it is an old car and is not obese. If I were to buy one, I would not drive it, I don’t find the 2JZ appropriate for today, the 2.0 is slow (without supercharger), and both the 2.0 and 3.0 litre drink much petrol (for what they output). More than that the 2JZ is a heavy piece for 250 PS. Doing a swap is not going to be easy, because other than an even bigger 1UZ or LSV8, there are no kits/documentation. If already to do rebuild/re-engineer, I prefer going BEV, making it “future proof”, it will be a “dirty gas guzzling” young timer in a see of Chinese styled blobs.

Toyota Reveals AE86 H2 And BEV Restomod Concepts In Japan

These concepts were created by the Gazoo Racing division and are now on display at the Tokyo Auto Salon 2023.

insideevs.com

I hope we see more of this

 

[Levi]

Yes, I was very glad when Toyota presented those cars, and the overall idea as a serious project.

 

[Gecko]

Why did you @Gecko find it funny about “my” retrofitted IS Sportcross? (Not that I am hurt). It on the contrary is a very carefully thought over project of mine (that need lots of money and time). I am not anti-BEV in terms of technology, but up-coming BEVs are more than cars with batteries, they a blobs filled with screens. I wouldn’t want a Tesla Y even with 2UR, the car is just so ugly in and out.

The Sportcross is compact but practical, it is an old car and is not obese. If I were to buy one, I would not drive it, I don’t find the 2JZ appropriate for today, the 2.0 is slow (without supercharger), and both the 2.0 and 3.0 litre drink much petrol (for what they output). More than that the 2JZ is a heavy piece for 250 PS. Doing a swap is not going to be easy, because other than an even bigger 1UZ or LSV8, there are no kits/documentation. The Motus V4 (half LSV8) would be an engine I’d wish to swap in. But if already to do total rebuild/re-engineering, I prefer going BEV and making it “future proof”, it will be a “dirty gas guzzling” young timer styled BEV in a see of Chinese styled blobs.

Oh I thought you were thinking of retrofitting a UR V8 in one of the "new IS Sportcross" looking BEV concepts, which would be wild but cool. I see your point about an IS 300 Sportcross, though I could never part with the 2JZ if I had one!