Lexus steps up pace of electrification

I

internalaudit

Expert
Messages
1,227
Reactions
1,180
mediumhot said:
While I applaud for the revision, they should have never went all in aggressively like that, I think many things will change within next five years and they will (all manufacturers) once again jump on EV bandwagon. Just this time it will not be regulation induced but by technology breakthrough. Had they all had technology needed to lead the EV game many of the manufacturers would be all BEV by now.
Click to expand...
Battery technology is the limiting factor.

2030 should usher in better chemistries that will allow for longer lasting packs and real lower total cost of ownership.
 
S

ssun30

Expert
Messages
3,855
Reactions
8,581
qtb007 said:
IMO, developing new 8 or 6 cylinders for the larger mainline Lexus models would be foolish. The more people that drive electrified vehicles, the lower the demand will be for ICE only and there's more economy of scale as far as markets if they lean heavily into electrification. The US government can say what they want about electrified policy, but eventually the consumer is going to be asking for it.
Click to expand...
They are already being foolish developing a very low volume V8 engine for the LFR and a somewhat low volume V6 diesel engine for the LC300/LX500d. They are also being foolish maintaining 5 different production lines of 6 cylinder+ engines for their luxury lineup: 2GR, 2UR, V35, F33, and whatever the new V8 will be called. All of these will either be discontinued or have their output significantly reduced with EU7.

These high complexity ICEs require economies of scale to justify the investment. GM has to kill the Blackwing V8 because they produce less than 1000 of them each year. The LFR is cornered into a very low price range (for a super car) because of how late it is and I suspect it's going to be another money loss like the LFA. BMW gets it right by developing one S68 engine at different output and having 13 products (including LR) share the cost.

And who said anything about these engines bring mutually exclusive with hybridization?

Toyota is also avoiding EREVs because it's still debatable whether EREVs are the best of both worlds or the worst of both worlds, unless they can commercialize their linear free piston generator concept.
 
qtb007

qtb007

Admirer
Messages
537
Reactions
816
ssun30 said:
They are already being foolish developing a very low volume V8 engine for the LFR and a somewhat low volume V6 diesel engine for the LC300/LX500d. They are also being foolish maintaining 5 different production lines of 6 cylinder+ engines for their luxury lineup: 2GR, 2UR, V35, F33, and whatever the new V8 will be called. All of these will either be discontinued or have their output significantly reduced with EU7.

These high complexity ICEs require economies of scale to justify the investment. GM has to kill the Blackwing V8 because they produce less than 1000 of them each year. The LFR is cornered into a very low price range (for a super car) because of how late it is and I suspect it's going to be another money loss like the LFA. BMW gets it right by developing one S68 engine at different output and having 13 products (including LR) share the cost.

And who said anything about these engines bring mutually exclusive with hybridization?

Toyota is also avoiding EREVs because it's still debatable whether EREVs are the best of both worlds or the worst of both worlds, unless they can commercialize their linear free piston generator concept.
Click to expand...
The production lines are in place and running for most of those engines... and several of them come off flex lines with other engines because they are low volume in the first place. They are just humming along until they don't have product to go into anymore. The only real cost is the space they take up. I expect the LFR engine will end up being more or less hand built which is low investment and opportunity cost from a production capacity and cap investment perspective.

BMW has a history of selling their engines to other manufacturers. They can justify it because they have a bunch of product to put it in. It is possible that Toyota could find other customers for a new 6 or 8, but that's a bit of a gamble. IMO, adding a V8 doesn't result in that many more sales for the LX, LS, or GX. Tundra and Sequoia plant is more or less running at capacity, so a V8 -- especially at a higher cost -- doesn't bring much to the table there because people are basically happy with the performance; the prices are starting to shock people, IMO.

It won't have to be exclusive of hybridization, but how they go about adding hybrid will be different if they spend a lot of R&D dollars on a new 6 or 8. If they develop a new V8 capable of 550hp, there won't be much motivation to add a 100hp electric motor and 2kwh battery from a performance perspective. That's already more power than what the typical LS or LX customer is wanting. If Lexus uses an off-the-shelf engine, they have dollars to spend on battery and motors. In general, I think the typical Lexus customer is pretty happy performance wise but they want notably better efficiency and NVH. More motor and battery solves both of those problems.

I'm interested to see the reception of EREVs. It has really interesting aspects of scalability if an OEM can use the same basic engine across the lineup and adjust how much battery and motor is needed to meet the customer need. If the engine is always at the same RPM, much more can be done to destroy the uncouth noises that come from a 4 cylinder to where the customer never hears it. Customer gets in the car, hits the "road trip" button, and the engine runs on and on-off duty cycle to keep the large battery at a certain SOC to meet any performance need all while never hearing or feeling the engine kick on and off. I think it has the opportunity to avoid some of the downsides of current PHEVs that rely on the engine running full power to make full drivetrain power.
 
S

ssun30

Expert
Messages
3,855
Reactions
8,581
The total addressable market of cars costing above $200k is over 100000 world wide and it keeps growing because of the widening global wealth inequality (not that it's a good thing). Customers buying these cars want no less than 8 cylinders. In China alone Mercedes sold 12249 Maybach S-Class last year, more than total global sales of LS. The kind of price premium they can charge more than make up for the cost to develop and produce the powertrains for these products.

TMC has given up competing in that highly lucrative segment and is now content with Lexus being a second rate brand that only sells daily commuters to upper middle class. They have very little relevance in the true "luxury" market with the exception of the LM in Asia (and only because there's no competition). Their last opportunity to elevate the brand and move upmarket was with the LF-1, but that never came to fruition. "L" grade cars (LS/LX) used to make up over 15% of the brand's total sales historically. Now they are down to less than 5%.
 
CRSKTN

CRSKTN

Expert
Messages
2,406
Reactions
4,024
ssun30 said:
The total addressable market of cars costing above $200k is over 100000 world wide and it keeps growing because of the widening global wealth inequality (not that it's a good thing). Customers buying these cars want no less than 8 cylinders. In China alone Mercedes sold 12249 Maybach S-Class last year, more than total global sales of LS. The kind of price premium they can charge more than make up for the cost to develop and produce the powertrains for these products.

TMC has given up competing in that highly lucrative segment and is now content with Lexus being a second rate brand that only sells daily commuters to upper middle class. They have very little relevance in the true "luxury" market with the exception of the LM in Asia (and only because there's no competition). Their last opportunity to elevate the brand and move upmarket was with the LF-1, but that never came to fruition. "L" grade cars (LS/LX) used to make up over 15% of the brand's total sales historically. Now they are down to less than 5%.
Click to expand...

Akio Toyoda does not want the very embodiment of "Your name isn't good enough to be a luxury car to the Americans" to become the dominant economic powerhouse in the TMC ecosystem.

The entire thing was a 36 year bait and switch. They used it a special purpose vehicle for whatever technology, performance, product offering and market positioning experiment they didn't want to have in the Toyota name on if it doesn't do well.

Then start slipping in Crown, Century, push it up and have Lexus sit aside in some niche.

The US dealership network probably is kicking up a shitstorm.

I bet you they are forcing a Lexus badge on the thing.

Last I checked, someone over there "accidentally" branded the thing with Lexus badges at an event and photos leaked.

You think those got put on in Japan?
 
L

Levi

Expert
Messages
3,001
Reactions
3,454
TMC better start selling in Russia again. Russian’s are buying Chinese BEVs.
 
Kelvin2020

Kelvin2020

Admirer
Messages
857
Reactions
1,991
CRSKTN

CRSKTN

Expert
Messages
2,406
Reactions
4,024
Theyre only killing V8 models specifically to weaken the last real differentiation Lexus has before they force their new turbocharged unproven overstressed engines out.

They dont want there to be a choice.

If you want V8, you have to likely go the GR supercar route.

Unreal.
 
S

ssun30

Expert
Messages
3,855
Reactions
8,581
CRSKTN said:
Theyre only killing V8 models specifically to weaken the last real differentiation Lexus has before they force their new turbocharged unproven overstressed engines out.

They dont want there to be a choice.

If you want V8, you have to likely go the GR supercar route.

Unreal.
Click to expand...
And if you want a V6, you have to buy a BOF SUV. The rest of the Lexus lineup by 2028 will be nothing but 2.0T I4. In three years time the Lexus lineup will go down from 9 6cyl+ options to 4 at best.

This brand is going into its most boring period since 1989.
 
mikeavelli

mikeavelli

Moderator
Messages
7,486
Reactions
16,629
CRSKTN said:
Theyre only killing V8 models specifically to weaken the last real differentiation Lexus has before they force their new turbocharged unproven overstressed engines out.

They dont want there to be a choice.

If you want V8, you have to likely go the GR supercar route.

Unreal.
Click to expand...

Aston Martin looking better and better….. V-8 life
 
F

Falcon

Follower
Messages
158
Reactions
170
ssun30 said:
And if you want a V6, you have to buy a BOF SUV. The rest of the Lexus lineup by 2028 will be nothing but 2.0T I4. In three years time the Lexus lineup will go down from 9 6cyl+ options to 4 at best.

This brand is going into its most boring period since 1989.
Click to expand...
LS and TX have V6's. I hope the TTV8 spreads to more models too and not just on the flagship coupes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.