Thanks for your awesome, highly detailed and informative post. I'd double or triple-like it if I could!
And same to yours! I love discussing this stuff!
Your calendar year/model year predictions are fascinating, and beg a few questions and comments:
- Do you see a somewhat separate launch schedule for Lexus ES and Toyota Avalon? You show ES leapfrogging ahead of Avalon by a year, whereas consensus between the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Car Wars analysts, Automotive News' David Undercoffler and Carmaker1's predictions on this forum suggest that both will continue marching in lockstep as they did for the current generation.
Admittedly, I am not as savvy with production years and model years as someone like Carmaker1, but my sense is that the Camry, ES and Avalon will probably debut somewhere within 18-20 months of each other. Right now, Camry and Avalon started their current life cycles as 2012 model year vehicles, but with the Camry receiving the "2014.5" refresh, and Avalon getting a 2015 refresh, I think Toyota could see it fit to space the Avalon's redesign out just a bit further. ES will probably stay a year after - you are right. From what I understand about 2017, ALL focus is on the Camry... no mention of Avalon so far.
I could see the Camry in late summer, early fall of 2017 as a 2018 model, followed by the Avalon in November/December as a 2018 or 2019, and then a 2019 ES in August/September of 2018. The problem there is where to introduce the GS between the LS and ES? Lexus has, once again, stacked all of their sedan redesigns too close together.
- You make no mention of the Toyota Sequoia. Do you think it'll see a 3rd generation?
I really don't know, and from what I am hearing, Toyota doesn't either. ToMoCo's view is that BOF SUVs are nearly dead (not worth significant investment beyond Land Cruiser 200, Prado and Hilux platforms) and the Highlander and Land Cruiser can split the remaining customers who might have shopped for a Sequoia. TMS USA is saying, "long live the Tundra, 4Runner, Sequoia, Land Cruiser and Tacoma!" They want BOF to stay. It's an open rift between the two divisions.
There were rumors a few years ago that Toyota was going to drop the Sequoia and introduce lower priced trims of the Land Cruiser - like SR5 - to try to appeal to some disenfranchised Sequoia shoppers. I know that this idea was floated with dealers who shot it down. Dealers are militant about wanting another Sequoia.
Allegedly a new Tundra is finally coming, and to my knowledge, after that has been engineered, creating a Sequoia isn't much additional work or investment. My sense is that if gas prices remain lower and consumers keep buying SUVs like they are now, we will indeed see a new Sequoia. If gas prices go back up and SUV sales cool off, I think we won't.
- After already being pushed back 2 model years (from 2017 to 2019) by the Car Wars folks, your predictions push the 4th-gen Sienna back yet another year, to Year 2019/MY 2020, alongside the intro of the 4th-gen Highlander. With the current Sienna being 3 years older than Highlander, doesn't a Year 2018/MY 2019 launch for Sienna (a year ahead of the next Highlander) make more sense?
From what I have heard, Toyota feels that they have the minivan market pretty well covered and they are not in a rush to redesign the Sienna despite it's age. I think it could receive another small refresh (it's getting the Highlander's new 2GR-FKS and 8AT), but a 2020 MY redesign is consistent with what I've heard. Bumping up to 2019 could also happen - I am not 100% sure here.
- Do you disagree with the 2016 Car Wars prediction pushing the 5th-gen Lexus GS back from Year 2018/MY 2019 to Year 2019/MY 2020?
Yes. 4GS was introduced in early 2012 for 2013 MY and by 2018, would be 6 years old. The recent GS 300 trademark makes me think that Lexus is already hard at work on the 5GS, and after LS, it's the next product to move to GA-L. Also, if the rumors are true that the LS could be elevated in size, price and status, Lexus is going to need a strong(er) product under it and that is GS. 2020 GS would be a 7 year run for the 4GS and I think we are finally about to see ToMoCo move away from these long model cycles, back to 5-6 years. I think LC in early-2017, LS in mid-2017, GS in early-2018 and ES in mid- to late-2018.
- Similarly, the 2016 Car Wars pushed back the 12th-gen Toyota Corolla from Year 2018/MY 2019 to Year 2019/MY 2020. Your predictions stick to the earlier timetable. Do you think they're wrong?
I think Toyota is making power plays for volume with Camry, Rav4 and Corolla and I think they are aiming to keep those products as fresh as possible. With that in mind, my personal opinion is that we will see a new Corolla in 2018 for 2019 MY. Refresh for 2017, and Toyota
generally will redesign 2 years after a refresh.
- Perhaps the one I find most eyebrow-raising is your prediction that we won't see a new Toyota Yaris until Year 2019/MY 2020. Even the 2016 Car Wars prediction of Year 2018/MY 2019 seems distant to me given how poorly the current Yaris seems to be aging. And do you have any thoughts or info on whether the next North America market Yaris hatchback will be the next-gen Euro Yaris/Japan Vitz or a Mazda2 clone?
Admittedly, I do not follow the Yaris much at all and am very out of touch with this model. Seems to me that with a 2013 redesign and 2016 refresh, it should be redesigned again in 2017 as a 2018 model... but that could be stretched out a year if resources are constrained and smaller cars are still selling poorly vs. SUVs. Toyota could want to prioritize C-HR/UX and delay Yaris a year. Not sure, really.
My apologies if some of these questions and comments could be construed as off-topic Toyota threadjacking. Moderators, feel free to move some of this to a separate The Garage forum thread if need be.
Your comments are great! Good follow up points!