Koji Sato needs to make urgent decisions on EV strategy on the day he takes over.

[ssun30]

Enthusiasts may consider the bZ4X uncompetitive but it is still too early to know if it is uncompetitive where it really counts, the consumer market, where real, everyday drivers and buyers vote.

Yes, where it really counts, like being able to charge the car in winter, getting more than 70% of advertised range, charging the car to 100% for a 300km trip. Surely the bZ4X is going to be so competitive in these regards which everyday drivers care a lot about. They will vote with their wallet and then ask for a refund.

The bZ4X in its current state is indefensible and no sane person should ever consider buying one.

Same for the RZ450e, in ChDM Lexus has to offer a 80%/60%/50% guaranteed buyback after 1/2/3 years because they know their customers will get rid of it as soon as possible. So not only do they have to sell the car at a loss in the first place, they will take further loss buying back used cars at elevated price.

 

[internalaudit]

Why "even in Canada"? EU has been pushing EV sales heavily.

By 2035, there will be no deadline needed.

Germany has healthy demand for EVs, despite dropped incentives. I dont think in reality, PHEVs will survive at all.

German sales rise 3% in February as EV demand recovers

MG, Alfa Romeo, Land Rover, Tesla and Porsche were among monthly winners in the German new-car market in February.

europe.autonews.com

16% market share and raising is pretty good for BEVs, together with plugins, it is 22%.

PHEV with 30 km range in 2035 will have no market. WTF drives 30km (15 in winter) to work roundtrip and will need to buy a PHEV or BEV? Just drive their ICEV or HEV to the ground and call it a day. There's no break-even point at all.

PHEV with 100 plus (100 is the minimum) km range will cover a lot of use cases and should be viable in 2035 and beyond.

You are from Europe. You'd have to be cross-country driving to drive 500 km in a day. My family did that in 2019. Landed in Munich, drove to Slovania, Croatia, Austria and back. Just for camping, my family had to drive 200+ km already.

So in Canada or US where travel could be long distance, PHEVs will have a place. Not just because of the incentive/rebate, but also it being more practical for longer distance traveling.

 

[internalaudit]

They are selling them in EU and NA as well, they just dont think they can sell as much.
Generally, they sell vehicles based on market demand, not what they would like to do.

So they estimated they would be able to sell a lot more in China than in NA, and thus Chinese plants.

Problem is that product is not competitive.

The biggest BEV market is China and before the price war, probably one of the more lucrative (CDM MSRPs are not cheap for Toyota or Lexus vehicles but labor and material cost probably much lower) but if the RAV4 Prime has a 12-month waitlist in Canada, at least 1/3 of those buyers could have opted for the Bz4X.

Like I said, Toyota only sells the Bz and the RZ in Quebec and British Columbia, not because there is no demand elsewhere in the country (some also prefer Toyota reliablity and quality) but supply to Canada is limited.

 

[internalaudit]

Yes, where it really counts, like being able to charge the car in winter, getting more than 70% of advertised range, charging the car to 100% for a 300km trip. Surely the bZ4X is going to be so competitive in these regards which everyday drivers care a lot about. They will vote with their wallet and then ask for a refund.

The bZ4X in its current state is indefensible and no sane person should ever consider buying one.

Same for the RZ450e, in ChDM Lexus has to offer a 80%/60%/50% guaranteed buyback after 1/2/3 years because they know their customers will get rid of it as soon as possible. So not only do they have to sell the car at a loss in the first place, they will take further loss buying back used cars at elevated price.

What is Toyota's profit margin on the RZ though? Should be bigger than a similar spec'ed Lexus ICEV or HEV?

Also, it's a stop gag measure for the early Toyota/Lexus adopters. I'm sure losing some money but reassuring stakeholders, green peace lol, naysayers/detractors and competitors it's in the BEV game is priceless. It's good will, don't you think so?

I'd be happy to purchase a used RZ here in Canada for a song down the road if the battery really retains 90% capacity at the end of 10 years. We know no other manufacturer would suggest that.

In the end, the industry will look back at Toyota and say conservatism paid off and it showcased its reliablity instead of joining the bandwagon of hype with other EV manufacturers that focus on fast charging and driving distance (at the expense of reserve capacity).

I don't know when SSBs will be available but Toyota says 2025 will be when they commercialize in its hybrid line up. 2028 probably across its line up. I'm in no rush unless my ICEV or HEV needs replacement. Judging from posts online, these two cars may have another 100-200k miles left on them lol.

 

[LS500-18]

Just as an FYI, Tesla's battery degradation warranty is 8 years, 70% capacity. Not saying this is good or bad, just a point of reference since Tesla is the EV "technoking". [SOURCE]

 

[Sulu]

What is Toyota's profit margin on the RZ though? Should be bigger than a similar spec'ed Lexus ICEV or HEV?

Also, it's a stop gag measure for the early Toyota/Lexus adopters. I'm sure losing some money but reassuring stakeholders, green peace lol, naysayers/detractors and competitors it's in the BEV game is priceless. It's good will, don't you think so?

I'd be happy to purchase a used RZ here in Canada for a song down the road if the battery really retains 90% capacity at the end of 10 years. We know no other manufacturer would suggest that.

In the end, the industry will look back at Toyota and say conservatism paid off and it showcased its reliablity instead of joining the bandwagon of hype with other EV manufacturers that focus on fast charging and driving distance (at the expense of reserve capacity).

I don't know when SSBs will be available but Toyota says 2025 will be when they commercialize in its hybrid line up. 2028 probably across its line up. I'm in no rush unless my ICEV or HEV needs replacement. Judging from posts online, these two cars may have another 100-200k miles left on them lol.

Prospective buyers of the Toyota Bz4X or Lexus RX don't care what Toyota's profit margin (positive, negative, break-even) is. They only care that Toyota sells them a car that suits their needs (and long battery life with minimal degradation may be one deciding factor).

Just look at earlier generations of the Prius. "Experts" claimed that Toyota was losing money on each one sold but Toyota claimed otherwise; buyers did not care and still bought them.

 

[internalaudit]

Prospective buyers of the Toyota Bz4X or Lexus RX don't care what Toyota's profit margin (positive, negative, break-even) is. They only care that Toyota sells them a car that suits their needs (and long battery life with minimal degradation may be one deciding factor).

Just look at earlier generations of the Prius. "Experts" claimed that Toyota was losing money on each one sold but Toyota claimed otherwise; buyers did not care and still bought them.

I never mentioned what the buyer cared about in the post you quoted. I'm responding to Ssun's comment on losing money on every EV sale in China.

Toyota cares about profit margins but if these early EVs are loss leaders just to keep the company in institutional investors' good list, I don't think the company is losing tons of money.

You don't have to explain to me as I never even delved on that point of yours. Even my tweener will understand that a product or service is sold because it provides some form of utility. Pricing could be low but if it provides no utility, it won't sell. Pricing could be atmospheric high but if it provides some utility (unique, store of value, saves time, power), it could sell like hot cakes to the affluent.

 

[ssun30]

Just as an FYI, Tesla's battery degradation warranty is 8 years, 70% capacity. Not saying this is good or bad, just a point of reference since Tesla is the EV "technoking". [SOURCE]

70% of 300mi is 210mi. 90% of 220mi is 198mi.

Tell me which is better.

Toyota cares about profit margins but if these early EVs are loss leaders just to keep the company in institutional investors' good list, I don't think the company is losing tons of money.

Toyota built two factories expecting 200k sales a year and these factories now run at below 10% capacity. That is not a loss leader, it's a money pit.

They miscalculated how many people will buy an uncompetitive product by 10 times because they got used to selling uncompetitive products.

 

[internalaudit]

70% of 300mi is 210mi. 90% of 220mi is 198mi.

Tell me which is better.


Toyota built two factories expecting 200k sales a year and these factories now run at below 10% capacity. That is not a loss leader, it's a money pit.

They miscalculated how many people will buy an uncompetitive product by 10 times because they got used to selling uncompetitive products.

At least these factories are ready for the next gen BEVs? Better earlier than late and it's only two more years? The factories are sunk cost. I bet they didn't order 200k worth of components and batteries to stock up though and most people at the assembly have been moved to factories or lines where they can be better utilized.

Thoughts?


Even Chinese EV makers took a hit with the sudden price war that ensued. Fewer cars make for fewer losses, right?

I do hope Toyota does up the battery warranty game when it launches next gen EVs. Even 2nd or 3rd gen Priuses had issues so I think it was right for Toyota to err on the side of conservatism, knowing fully well its brand is associated with reliability.

Sure, slow charging, shorter range, those have nothing to do with reliability and product longevity anyway. Battery life and cost to maintain are more important.

I agree with you though that Lexus BEVs are overpriced.

 

[LS500-18]

70% of 300mi is 210mi. 90% of 220mi is 198mi.

Tell me which is better.

198 miles, without question. Tesla's range numbers are complete fabrications. Keep in mind Toyota has been working with batteries since at least 1997 in mass production cars...

 

[internalaudit]

198 miles, without question. Tesla's range numbers are complete fabrications. Keep in mind Toyota has been working with batteries since at least 1997 in mass production cars...

Tesla can't even mass produced its batteries. What happened to the Dr. Dahn collaboration?

I don't think it has as much involvement compared to BMW.

Whoever rules batteries will rull the BEV war. I think Toyota will come out one of the winners.

I would prefer battery longevity over fast charging and max driving range. I don't keep flipping cars and I want one that has a really low cost ownership. Battery dying in year 9 or 10 doesn't make it low cost of ownership, at least based on my definition.

 

[Levi]

70% of 300mi is 210mi. 90% of 220mi is 198mi.

Tell me which is better.

Both very bad, negligible difference. At the same time both are far enough for daily commute needs (average US daily distance being 30 miles), which is the main selling point of BEVs.

 

[LS500-18]

Both very bad, negligible difference. At the same time both are far enough for daily commute needs (average US daily distance being 30 miles), which is the main selling point of BEVs.

You're making me think that the Prius Prime, RAV4 Prime, and PHEVs are the best way to reduce emissions with the given resources today, from a logical point of view.... hmm that's not sexy and cool.

 

[spwolf]

Both very bad, negligible difference. At the same time both are far enough for daily commute needs (average US daily distance being 30 miles), which is the main selling point of BEVs.

it does not work like that.

BZ4X is terrible product even if it had 100% battery warranty.

2 years later, both me and my best friend that got our Teslas at same time, have around 3.5-4% battery degradation, and first two years are the fastest. I have 25k miles, he has 45k miles.

Nothing that Toyota is doing with BZ4X is better than competition. I mean they are locking your fast charging to 2x per 24hr period in software. It is a joke.

It is not a product anyone should buy.

 

[spwolf]

At least these factories are ready for the next gen BEVs? Better earlier than late and it's only two more years? The factories are sunk cost. I bet they didn't order 200k worth of components and batteries to stock up though and most people at the assembly have been moved to factories or lines where they can be better utilized.

factories for current platform that they want to redo? It is terrible for Toyota if they have 300k in capacity standing still. Now they have 10m in capacity, but it is huge money pit. Factories need to run at some 90% to be profitable, it is not just sunk cost, you have maint and all the people employed.

Also to move it to new platform, they will need to spend money.

They are so slow at changes, i dont think they will do improvements fast enough. They have promised percentage display of battery charge to BZ4X owners 6-7 months ago and it is still not there for RZ launch.

 

[ssun30]

You're making me think that the Prius Prime, RAV4 Prime, and PHEVs are the best way to reduce emissions with the given resources today, from a logical point of view.... hmm that's not sexy and cool.

This thread is not about which type of electrification is the best.

It is criticism on a strategy Toyota themselves committed to.

If 100% of their sales are PHEVs by 2030 I would applaud them. But even in PHEVs they have failed miserably with good products that people cannot actually buy.

 

[internalaudit]

factories for current platform that they want to redo? It is terrible for Toyota if they have 300k in capacity standing still. Now they have 10m in capacity, but it is huge money pit. Factories need to run at some 90% to be profitable, it is not just sunk cost, you have maint and all the people employed.

Also to move it to new platform, they will need to spend money.

They are so slow at changes, i dont think they will do improvements fast enough. They have promised percentage display of battery charge to BZ4X owners 6-7 months ago and it is still not there for RZ launch.

They just moved people. They aren't stupid. Read my earlier post again.

Land is there, equipment is there. Retooling from first gen platform to second gen platform won't cost more than 30% of the original investment. It's not like they are fabricating semicon with smaller and smaller sizes in nm. Why build 200k inferior BEVs when the next generation BEVs will be less inferior lol?

These are Japanese we are talking about, not some EV fanboys.

Again, EU allow e-fuel, and the US and Canada allowing PHEVs after 2035 just means Toyota's logic of product diversification makes sense.

If it think SSB's are going to be great but only commercialize it in 2025 for hybrids for "test" runs, WTF would they rush and churn BEVs with Li-ion when it's going to be so outdated? Even if Toyota were to churn out BEVs in meaningful numbers, they have until 2025/26 to do that and scale. If it can't, sure it will lost market share but it can quickly regain it back if its batteries are proven so much more reliable and lasts beyond 12 years easily. Tesla owners on TMC post a lot about concerns about battery degradation.

The only thing that makes BEVs obsolete is really the battery technology. All other components, like suspension, CarPlay/AA, wiring harness, will not face obsolescence. I don't give a fact about not having 800V system if I don't need to fast charge.

 

[internalaudit]

it does not work like that.

BZ4X is terrible product even if it had 100% battery warranty.

2 years later, both me and my best friend that got our Teslas at same time, have around 3.5-4% battery degradation, and first two years are the fastest. I have 25k miles, he has 45k miles.

Nothing that Toyota is doing with BZ4X is better than competition. I mean they are locking your fast charging to 2x per 24hr period in software. It is a joke.

It is not a product anyone should buy.

Let's talk about your battery on its 10th year. Two years is nothing when we know there's a valley of death for these at the cell level that usually cannot be detected so easily as there's no telltale sign (so I read on Battery University). Most on TMC have reported 10-15% battery degradation by the 4th year anyway and that's mostly by calculating wH/mile or whatever that measurement is and is imprecise.

Model 3: Battery & Charging

range, battery & charger options, charge time, HPWC

teslamotorsclub.com

And if you sold and moved to a new BEV, congrats as you suckered someone into buying a Tesla post battery warranty. But the good thing with Tesla in the US, and probably in EU, is that there's lots of third party battery vendors even for the TM3 now.

I believe the newest Model Y have integrated battery packs into the structure. Probably even more expensive to replace with labor costs included.

 

[Sulu]

Insurers Are Totaling EVs For Minor Battery Issues, And That's A Problem For Everyone | Carscoops

Batteries cost a lot to replace, raising insurance premiums and damaging the environment

www.carscoops.com

Proprietary battery systems and the novelty of the technology mean that repairing even minor faults in electric vehicles can be extremely difficult, not to mention costly too. That leads numerous insurance companies to simply scrap EVs with only minor faults, which is problematic not only for insurers, but owners and the environment as well.

This even affects vehicles involved in minor accidents whose battery packs have only a small amount of damage. Insurers and mechanics complain that there’s no simple way to check on the status of the batteries, meaning it has to be thrown out completely lest the companies face liability in the event of future faults, reports Reuters.

...

Now, insurers call on automakers to make it easier to access data and repair battery packs. Some have responded, with GM, Ford, and Nissan all claiming that they have developed ways to make repairs possible. GM in particular noted that their latest Ultium batteries were engineered to be repaired at the module level making them “significantly less expensive than replacing the entire battery pack” adding that they allow third-party access to battery data.

Not all automakers are quite as committed, however. Tesla, America’s biggest EV manufacturer, is investing in a new battery technology with larger cells that are glued into the pack. According to automotive expert and repair advisor Sandy Munro, the new pack has “zero repairability” adding that, “a Tesla structural battery pack is going straight to the grinder.”

 

[LS500-18]

Not all automakers are quite as committed, however. Tesla, America’s biggest EV manufacturer, is investing in a new battery technology with larger cells that are glued into the pack. According to automotive expert and repair advisor Sandy Munro, the new pack has “zero repairability” adding that, “a Tesla structural battery pack is going straight to the grinder.”

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