Koji Sato needs to make urgent decisions on EV strategy on the day he takes over.

[internalaudit]

SaVe ThE eNvIrOnMeNt BrO !!

Any cost saving by Tesla is not reflected on the price.

I don't even know why anyone, interested in owning a BEV for long period of time, would want a structural battery pack if we don't even get any savings, vis-a-vis, competing makes with batteries easier replaced.

I think soon insurance companies will charge a lot more premiums for these vehicles that are complete write-offs even in a low impact accident.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Looks like eFuels are the way to go.

 

[ssun30]

CTC (cell-to-chassis) packaging is something not every manufacturer is pursuing because of the serviceability and replaceability issue. Toyota does not need to do that and I don't think they will ever do. In fact, I believe CTC EVs will eventually be banned because of the recycling burden.

The biggest gains are from CMP (cell-module-pack) to CTP (cell-to-pack). CTP is replaceable, recyclable, but not repairable. Toyota already uses CTP in bZ3 because all BYD blade LFP designs are CTP.

 

[LS500-18]

Any cost saving by Tesla is not reflected on the price.

I don't even know why anyone, interested in owning a BEV for long period of time, would want a structural battery pack if we don't even get any savings, vis-a-vis, competing makes with batteries easier replaced.

I think soon insurance companies will charge a lot more premiums for these vehicles that are complete write-offs even in a low impact accident.

Tesla's 4680 battery was hyped to the moon.... until it came out. It turns out it didn't decrease cost. It didn't increase range. It didn't increase charging speed. It didn't really do anything other than serve as another thing for Elon to hype up. There was literally ZERO BENEFIT to the buyers. You know the biggest way you can tell the 4680 structural battery pack was a nothing-burger? It never got hyped up by Elon or Tesla once it was actually in production. They'd rather you forget about that "flop".

Elon is the biggest vaporware salesman on the planet that is not in jail right now. Believe nothing that he says.

I would not own a BEV long term (like beyond 5 years). Tech changes fast and could you imagine using a 10-15 year old cell phone right now? BEVs are sexy and cool but are LITERALLY not designed to last as long as a well maintained gas car (ala Toyota).

Absolutely for sure BEV insurance costs are going to keep going up to the moon as well because it is so easy to "total one out" for what would be minor damage if it was a gas car. The battery is the biggest problem of the whole car, from an insurance perspective, as well as out of warranty, etc.

A friend of mine bought a high mileage salvage 2016 90D Model S, the car hit a deer and was totalled. He bought the parts to fix the front end, roof glass, etc. and got it re-certified. He is much braver than me. Apparently the insurance company was not interested in getting it safety certified and he had to get a couple of frame shops to put it on the rack and measure it, etc.

Tesla treated him like a POS and refused to sell him parts even though he could prove he owned the car (because it was wrecked). What a despicable company, that's not how you treat customers if you want them to come back again in the future. They basically treated him as a criminal for wanting a bumper, support, nosecone, etc.

 

[internalaudit]

Tesla's 4680 battery was hyped to the moon.... until it came out. It turns out it didn't decrease cost. It didn't increase range. It didn't increase charging speed. It didn't really do anything other than serve as another thing for Elon to hype up. There was literally ZERO BENEFIT to the buyers. You know the biggest way you can tell the 4680 structural battery pack was a nothing-burger? It never got hyped up by Elon or Tesla once it was actually in production. They'd rather you forget about that "flop".

Elon is the biggest vaporware salesman on the planet that is not in jail right now. Believe nothing that he says.

I would not own a BEV long term (like beyond 5 years). Tech changes fast and could you imagine using a 10-15 year old cell phone right now? BEVs are sexy and cool but are LITERALLY not designed to last as long as a well maintained gas car (ala Toyota).

Absolutely for sure BEV insurance costs are going to keep going up to the moon as well because it is so easy to "total one out" for what would be minor damage if it was a gas car. The battery is the biggest problem of the whole car, from an insurance perspective, as well as out of warranty, etc.

A friend of mine bought a high mileage salvage 2016 90D Model S, the car hit a deer and was totalled. He bought the parts to fix the front end, roof glass, etc. and got it re-certified. He is much braver than me. Apparently the insurance company was not interested in getting it safety certified and he had to get a couple of frame shops to put it on the rack and measure it, etc.

Tesla treated him like a POS and refused to sell him parts even though he could prove he owned the car (because it was wrecked). What a despicable company, that's not how you treat customers if you want them to come back again in the future. They basically treated him as a criminal for wanting a bumper, support, nosecone, etc.

It is just going to get worst with limited number service centers and burgeoning sales. New comers will realize how lousy service quality is and how expensive repair costs are.

Tesla doesn't believe its batteries are better than others. It dropped the unlimited mileage battery warranty on the S and X in 2020. It doesn't believe in its vehicles quality, as it dropped the available ESA on the S and X. Which manufacturer would drop extended warranty offerings if it thought the quality of its products are that great? That would be pure icing on the profit cake.

And yeah, all those talks about Dr. Dahn doing research has done nothing to make those 4680 or new gen battery much better. Sure could cost lower to produce but I'm sure it's not earth-shattering savings.

Tesla was fortunate because of carbon/ZEV credits. Had there been none, it wouldn't have been able to bankroll its operations as swiftly.

I'm willing to sit this EV war out. Heck, I just looked over taycanforums and man, the issues, TSBs, recalls subforum is already 47 page long and there's been lots of complaints about electrical issues. Even on some Bz4X forums, there are also several issues that most ICEV or HEV owners didn't have to encounter. I don't want to be a guineau pig for automakers, not when I will be paying close to or even MSRP.

I'd still be interested in used Toyota/Lexus BEVs if the price is right, just when the battery warranty is about to end and battery replacement is at reasonable cost (like double the wholesale price on a per kWh less existing battery core value)

 

[mikeavelli]

Remember this is for Lexus loyal. Only 6k this year, I don’t see many people jumping ship. Yet,

For a person like me it’s solid. I give a **** about range, I know it will be reliable, well built and I like how it looks. It also will be super rare in a sea of Tesla Eggs.

If we all remember, Tesla improved range over its history. They didn’t debut with 400 mile range. Lexus will improve range and performance.

What I dream of is a Taycan fighter. My wife and I adore the Taycan. Would love to see Lexus in that area.

 

[LS500-18]

I really like the Taycan and its sister the Etron GT, lovely cars. But I am in a smaller city and being able to get service is high on my list (2+ hrs to Porsche, ~1 hr to Audi). If I have to deal with service more than twice a year I'm not happy. So that's one of the main thing that holds me back from spending that much $ on a car. A slightly used Taycan or E-GT would be more in my budget admittedly but the Toyota dealer is 5 mins from my house and they do the oil changes on my R4P and Lexus ESh. Easy peasy, once a year visits too.

I already did the guinea pig BEV thing and now I have zero BEVs in the garage.... at least with Toyota/Lexus BEV you know they will work 99% of the kinks out within 1-2 years. Tesla still ships garbage out because quality does not matter to them, numbers matter (sales, stock price, 0-60, etc.).

 

[ssun30]

I like how every EV discussion here becomes Tesla bashing as if that could made TMC's own EV program any better.

There are plenty of non-Tesla EVs out there that are also way better than bZ4X/RZ that don't have Tesla quality.

Tesla does a lot of things right but a few things very wrong. At least some Toyota executives have the humility the admit what Tesla did right unlike their customers who think bashing Tesla is enough to put this evil company out of business.

 

[internalaudit]

I like how every EV discussion here becomes Tesla bashing as if that could made TMC's own EV program any better.

There are plenty of non-Tesla EVs out there that are also way better than bZ4X/RZ that don't have Tesla quality.

Tesla does a lot of things right but a few things very wrong. At least some Toyota executives have the humility the admit what Tesla did right unlike their customers who think bashing Tesla is enough to put this evil company out of business.

No one is bashing Tesla.

SC limited, customer service getting worst, repair cost high -- these are all facts.

I don't pray for any company to go belly up. I just tell it straight up based on my readings.

I didn't sugarcoat issues with Taycans lol.

I am expecting more from 2nd gen Toyota BEVs but if not happy, maybe wait out 3rd gen for me or Acura/Honda. I mean this is when buying new.

I'd be happy to buy a used Bz4X or RZ if the price is right in Year 6 or onward lol. I know the batteries on those will last much longer than the competition.

 

[spwolf]

Remember this is for Lexus loyal. Only 6k this year, I don’t see many people jumping ship. Yet,

For a person like me it’s solid. I give a **** about range, I know it will be reliable, well built and I like how it looks. It also will be super rare in a sea of Tesla Eggs.

If we all remember, Tesla improved range over its history. They didn’t debut with 400 mile range. Lexus will improve range and performance.

What I dream of is a Taycan fighter. My wife and I adore the Taycan. Would love to see Lexus in that area.

If you were into EVs, it is like saying that you would get NX even if it gets 15 mpg while doing 9s 0-60, because something.

Technology wise, this is terrible.

It is currently only EV that exists that looks fast charge to 2x per 24hrs, quite possibly limiting you to 300 mile trips.

Everything about it is behind competition, from slow charging, bad efficiency to the fact it only does you range in miles in cluster so you have no idea what battery percentage is.

Oh wait, you can check on phone.

 

[internalaudit]

If you were into EVs, it is like saying that you would get NX even if it gets 15 mpg while doing 9s 0-60, because something.

Technology wise, this is terrible.

It is currently only EV that exists that looks fast charge to 2x per 24hrs, quite possibly limiting you to 300 mile trips.

Everything about it is behind competition, from slow charging, bad efficiency to the fact it only does you range in miles in cluster so you have no idea what battery percentage is.

Oh wait, you can check on phone.

Not defending Toyota's first attempt.

Not everyone needs to drive 200 km without going home to charge.

I think you will be driving something other than a Tesla in 10 years. Lots of choices by then.

It's terrible for those who do require driving more.

Yeah read remaining distance is way overstated but there's the trip odometer that can reset.

Toyota should just raise battery warranty to 90% capacity for 10 years lol.

 

[ssun30]

It is currently only EV that exists that looks fast charge to 2x per 24hrs, quite possibly limiting you to 300 mile trips.

Well no. Even on a Tesla I usually charge every 120mi/200km in winter on road trips just in case a charging station is full or I need to take detours. I always keep my SOC between 20% and 80%. So for 300 mi trips I usually charge 3 times on DC, each time only taking ~15 min so not much time wasted on charging. That's just my way of optimizing time wasted on charging on road trips.

On a bZ4X that would mean I'm limited to 100 mi one way per day in winter. I live in a big city so getting out of it is already 30% that distance. So for 70 miles each way you will be in constant range anxiety AND when you get to a charging station you have to wait like 40 minutes to get enough charge to drive back.

 

[mikeavelli]

If you were into EVs, it is like saying that you would get NX even if it gets 15 mpg while doing 9s 0-60, because something.

Technology wise, this is terrible.

It is currently only EV that exists that looks fast charge to 2x per 24hrs, quite possibly limiting you to 300 mile trips.

Everything about it is behind competition, from slow charging, bad efficiency to the fact it only does you range in miles in cluster so you have no idea what battery percentage is.

Oh wait, you can check on phone.

I would buy a Taycan. So yeah I guess i am into EVs a bit. I just think the fake saving the planet bull **** is just that. An EV needs to be emotional for me and the Taycan delivers. The Model S plaid delivers but quite a bit less. For both I give a **** about range, I like that they look good are fast and are techy.

The RZ is logical for a Lexus diehard or someone who wants arguably the best built EV and one predicted to be the most reliable. For me a logical daily (might drive 20 miles some days). But not an emotional one. I totally get it’s behind the competition with power and range and charging capability.

I don’t care since my wife and I don’t drive enough to care and it would be a fourth or fifth car. Thing is the wife hasn’t mentioned the RZ at all but brings up the Taycan.

 

[mikeavelli]

I like how every EV discussion here becomes Tesla bashing as if that could made TMC's own EV program any better.

There are plenty of non-Tesla EVs out there that are also way better than bZ4X/RZ that don't have Tesla quality.

Tesla does a lot of things right but a few things very wrong. At least some Toyota executives have the humility the admit what Tesla did right unlike their customers who think bashing Tesla is enough to put this evil company out of business.

I have seen zero Tesla bashing, I’ve seen people commending Tesla for their range and charging network. It is by far the best. Just because someone does not want one or care for one doesn’t mean it’s bashing.

And quite frankly if anyone is bashing it’s the Tesla cult bashing anything not Tesla or EV. Most cannot be reasoned with. Also not the brightest bunch.

 

[dbthompson]

From Autoblog: https://www.autoblog.com/2023/04/06/toyota-electric-car-strategy-overhaul-tesla/
“Sato, Toyoda's hand-picked successor, recently attended an internal presentation that focused on the need for a dedicated battery-electric platform, a more competitive system to manage heat generated by the battery as well as other innovations influenced by Tesla's playbook. …
Several projects that were supposed to take advantage of the e-TNGA platform are now being delayed or cancelled, a separate person said.”

 

[internalaudit]

TBH, even if Toyota lost significant market share from 2023-25 because of the transition to BEVs, it's probably going to regain market share from 2027 and beyond when it comes out with more BEVs. I don't see any first-mover advantage for Tesla or other incumbents.

Sure, most Tesla or BEV owners will be holding on to their vehicles for six or more years or buying a BEV wouldn't have made sense financially. Heck, I'm holding out for better built BEVs with more than one central display to control everything and unless a car company meet my simple criteria (decent rear axle torque vectoring, longer battery warranty or better chemistry, no BS ultra- minimalistic interior, 120-mile winter driving range @80% SOC to allow for degradation), I'm not buying any BEV new, used maybe if I need to replace my ICEV or HEV.

With car prices soaring, it only makes more sense to buy reliable vehicles. Just look at all the Taycan issues, I'm sure that's widespread and that's already with VAG's Carid software group:

Issues, Warranty, Recalls, TSBs

www.taycanforum.com

 

[ssun30]

Looks like Sato-san agrees with me. At the Q&A he said the bZ4X powertrain and power management system is already being Kaizen'd each day "aggressively". I hope that proves to be true.

 

[Levi]

TBH, even if Toyota lost significant market share from 2023-25 because of the transition to BEVs, it's probably going to regain market share from 2027 and beyond when it comes out with more BEVs. I don't see any first-mover advantage for Tesla or other incumbents.

Sure, most Tesla or BEV owners will be holding on to their vehicles for six or more years or buying a BEV wouldn't have made sense financially. Heck, I'm holding out for better built BEVs with more than one central display to control everything and unless a car company meet my simple criteria (decent rear axle torque vectoring, longer battery warranty or better chemistry, no BS ultra- minimalistic interior, 120-mile winter driving range @80% SOC to allow for degradation), I'm not buying any BEV new, used maybe if I need to replace my ICEV or HEV.

With car prices soaring, it only makes more sense to buy reliable vehicles. Just look at all the Taycan issues, I'm sure that's widespread and that's already with VAG's Carid software group:

Issues, Warranty, Recalls, TSBs

www.taycanforum.com

Reading this, I am in absolutely no hurry to get BEV. Way too many problems, hearing the same issues from in French "affordable" 40K BEVs. What makes BEVs worse is that in addition to the BEV part which is new, carmakers are also doing all the electronic screens and OS part which is new. So double the possibility of issues.

In 7 years, Toyota/Lexus BEV it will be.

 

[internalaudit]

Reading this, I am in absolutely no hurry to get BEV. Way too many problems, hearing the same issues from in French "affordable" 40K BEVs. What makes BEVs worse is that in addition to the BEV part which is new, carmakers are also doing all the electronic screens and OS part which is new. So double the possibility of issues.

In 7 years, Toyota/Lexus BEV it will be.

Even the bZ4X has some growth pangs (went through the sparse discussions on one dedicated forum) but TBH, I think Toyota/Lexus will likely get these issues sorted out much sooner than many of the competition.

It already does well with its HEV and recently introduced PHEVs. Sure minor issues here and there but not the 3 to 6 month wait for Porsches! Sure battery C rate is different for all these types (learned this from Ssun lol) but that's more a matter of programming/software on the varying sizes of the packs/modules in combination with an engine or lack thereof.

And then I sit back and reflect on how many times I had to bring my 02 Civic, 11 Accord coupe, 16 RAV4H, 12 CT200h to the dealership or mechanic since 2003 (when I moved back to Canada) for a powertrain repair and it's been zilch and nada for me.

If I'm buying new, definitely going to be at a minimum the second production year of the second generation Toyota/Lexus BEV. The Toyota conference call also said there will be contininuous improvement on the bZ models so it will be like ala Tesla with many software updates (likely not as many as Tesla's though lol).

If buying used, I don't mind any Toyota/Lexus, even on the seventh year if the price is right as long as there is some battery warranty left. It won't be the crapshoot buying used BEVs from other makers were the battery was likely abused.